2014 MidTerm Election Analysis
How Election Day will impact Veterans: IAVA’s Analysis of Contested Races for Members of HVAC, SVAC and Veterans Running for Congress Today is a critical day for all Americans—but especially for veterans. Our community faces challenges at the VA, a growing suicide problem and fewer veterans1 serving in Congress than at any other time in modern history. And as the war in Afghanistan winds down the stakes have never been higher. Last month, IAVA released our 2014 Voter Guide to empower veterans—and all Americans— as they head to the ballot box this week. But as the results come in, what will it all mean for our community? IAVA crunched the numbers and offers this brief analysis as we head into a historic Election Day on Tuesday. Currently there are 106 identifiable veterans in Congress. And based on current polls, the number of veterans in the next congress is likely to decrease and could range from 96 to 108. The following is a top line analysis of all contested races nationwide for members of the (1) Senate Veterans Affairs Committee (SVAC), (2) House Veterans Affairs Committee (HVAC) and for veterans who are running for the (3) US Senate and (4) US House of Representatives. 1. Senate Veterans Affairs Committee (SVAC) Based on current polling data, there is a possibility that the GOP takes control of the US Senate and maintains control of the House of Representatives. Barring a major reshuffle of commit-‐ tees, SVAC is unlikely to change significantly following the election. Few members of SVAC are up for re-‐election, although incumbent Senator John Rockefeller of West Virginia is set to re-‐ tire. Alaska Democratic Mark Begich is in tight race against Iraq Veteran, Dan Sullivan and is polling an average of two points behind. His opponent, Dan Sullivan, is a Lt. Col in the Marine Corps and deployed to Afghanistan. Alaska is notoriously difficult to poll, so this race will come down to the wire.
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For this analysis, veteran is defined as someone who served in the United States Armed Forces.
November 4, 2014 Senate Veterans Affairs Committee [SVAC] Democrats
Republicans
Bernie Sanders [VT]
-‐-‐
Richard Burr [NC]
-‐-‐
John Rockefeller [WV]
Retiring
Johnny Isakson [GA]
-‐-‐
Patty Murray [WA]
-‐-‐
Jerry Moran [KS]
-‐-‐
Sherrod Brown [OH]
-‐-‐
John Boozman [AR]
-‐-‐
Jon Tester [MT]
-‐-‐
Dean Heller [NV]
-‐-‐
Mark Begich [AK]
Leans R
Richard Blumenthal [CT] -‐-‐ Mazie Hirono [HI]
-‐-‐ -‐-‐ denotes not up for re-‐election
2. House Veterans Affairs Committee (HVAC) Republican Chairman Jeff Miller of Florida is in a safe district and will continue to lead the Committee. Current Ranking Member Mike Michaud is running for Governor of Maine and leaving Con-‐ gress, which will leave a vacancy for Ranking Member. Multiple members of the committee have expressed interested in the position; however, there is no clear indicator who the Rank-‐ ing Member will be. A few other members could lose their seat or face a tight final count. There are a number of members that have served in the military, and two post-‐9/11 combat veterans. House Veterans Affairs Committee [HVAC] Democrats
Republicans
Mike Michaud [ME-‐02]
Leaving Congress
Jeff Miller [FL-‐01]
Safe
Corrine Brown [FL-‐05]
Safe
Doug Lamborn [CO-‐05]
Safe
Mark Takano [CA-‐41]
Safe
Gus Bilirakis [FL-‐12]
Likely R
Julia Brownley [CA-‐26]
Toss Up
David Roe [TN-‐01]
Safe
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November 4, 2014 Dina Titus [NV-‐01]
Safe
Bill Flores [TX-‐17]
Safe
Ann Kirkpatrick [AZ-‐01]
Toss Up
Jeff Denham [CA-‐10]
Safe
Raul Ruiz [CA-‐36]
Leans D
Jon Runyan [NJ-‐03]
Leans R
Gloria Negrete McLeod [CA-‐35] Safe
Tim Huelskamp [KS-‐01]
Safe
Ann McLane Kuster [NH-‐02]
Leans D
*Mike Coffman [CO-‐06]
Leans R
Beto O’Rourke [TX-‐16]
Safe
*Brad Wenstrup [OH-‐02] Likely R
Tim Walz [MN-‐01]
Likely D
Paul Cook [CA-‐08]
Safe
Jackie Walorski [IN-‐02]
Likely R
David Jolly [FL-‐13]
Safe
*OIF/OEF Veteran 3. Veterans Running For US Senate Currently, there are only two combat veterans serving in the US Senate (and only one from the post9/11 generation). Senator John McCain of Arizona is a Vietnam veteran. Senator John Walsh of Montana served in Iraq. Senator McCain is not up for re-election and will be returning next year. John Walsh, the first Iraq veteran in the history of the US Senate has withdrawn from his race and will not be serving in the 114th Congress. There will be at least one Iraq/Afghanistan Veteran, possibly two, serving in the US Senate in the 114th Congress. In Arkansas, Republican challenger Tom Cotton is likely to win his race against incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor. Cotton is an Army veteran with a tour to Iraq and one to Afghanistan. In Alaska, Republican Afghanistan veteran Dan Sullivan is polling two points ahead of incumbent Democrat Mark Begich-‐-‐but that race will come down to the wire. After this election, the number of those who have served in the military (in peacetime) in the Senate will not change dramatically. Depending on those races that are “toss-‐ups” or to close to call, there could be as few as 17 or as many as 22 who served in uniform at the start of the 114th Congress. Three Democrats will be leaving the Senate (Walsh, Harkin, Johnson) and one is likely to win election for the first time (Gary Peters, MI). The Republicans have one incum-‐ bent Veteran at risk, Pat Roberts -‐ KS, who is in a very tight race. Tom Cotton [R-‐AR] is the strongest challenger for the GOP and is likely to win his race. 3
November 4, 2014 Veterans in the US Senate Democrats
Republicans Incumbents
Ed Markey [MA]
Safe Dem
Jim Inhofe [OK]
Safe GOP
Jack Reed [RI]
Safe Dem
Pat Roberts [KS]
Toss Up
*John Walsh [MT]
Withdrew
Thad Cochran [MS]
Safe GOP
Richard Blumenthal [CT]
-‐-‐
John McCain [AZ]
-‐-‐
Tom Carper [DE]
-‐-‐
Johnny Isakson [GA]
-‐-‐
Bill Nelson [FL]
-‐-‐
Mitch McConnell [KY]
Likely GOP
Tom Harkin [IA]
Retiring
Mark Kirk [IL]
-‐-‐
Tim Johnson [SD]
Retiring
Dan Coats [IN]
-‐-‐
Mike Enzi [WY]
Safe GOP
Jeff Sessions [AL]
Safe GOP
Roger Wicker [MS]
-‐-‐
Lindsey Graham [SC]
Safe GOP
Challengers Dave Domina [NE]
Safe GOP
Allen Weh [NM]
Safe Dem
David Alameel [TX]
Safe GOP
Jeff Bell [NJ]
Safe Dem
Gary Peters [MI]
Likely Dem
Mark Zaccaria [RI]
Safe Dem
Campbell Cavasso [HI]
Safe Dem
Scott Brown [NH]
Leans Dem
*Dan Sullivan [AK]
Leans GOP
Joni Ernst [IA]
Leans GOP
*Tom Cotton [AR]
Likely GOP
# Rob Maness [LA]
Toss Up
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November 4, 2014 *OIF/OEF Veteran # Rob Maness is in a three way race with Landrieu [D] and Cassidy [R] 4. Veterans Running For US House of Representatives At the beginning of the current term there were 87 members who served in the United States Armed Forces in the House of Representatives, and there are 72 incumbents currently running for reelection. This includes 54 Republicans and 18 Democrats. Three incumbents are at risk of losing their seat; one Democrat, William Enyart [IL-12] is in a very tight race and two Republicans, Michael Grimm [NY-11] and Vance McAllister [LA-5] are behind in the polls. We have identified 94 non-incumbent veterans who have secured a major nomination. This includes 41 Republicans and 53 Democrats, and 1 independent candidate who received a nomination in California's blanket primary. Overall, we have identified 165 veterans (incumbent and non-incumbent) who have secured a major party nomination, compared to 185 in the 2012 election. This represents the largest decline in recent history. This has been driven by a significant drop in Republican veteran nominees (94 in 2014 vs. 117 in 2012). The number of Democratic veteran nominees has increased from 68 in 2012 to 71 in 2014. We have identified 44 post-9/11 veterans running for the House of Representatives. Of those, 13 are incumbents, all of whom are likely to win re-election. Out of the 31 challengers, based on recent polling, 3 Democrats are likely to win election for the first time, Ruben Gallego [AZ-07], Mark Takai [HI-01] and Seth Moulton [MA-06]. One Republican, Steve Russell [OK-05], is likely to be elected and Republicans Jeff Gorell [CA-26] and Stephen Knight [CA-25] are in races too close to call. Despite the overall drop in veteran nominees, there has been an increase in the number of women veteran nominees. Ten women veterans received a major party House nomination in 2014, the highest number ever. The non-incumbent veterans who have received a Democratic nomination are generally running in significantly tougher districts than their fellow Democratic nominees without military service. On average, the former are running in districts that Romney won by 21 percent, while the latter's districts went to Romney by 16 percent. Veterans in the United States House of Representatives Democrats
Republicans Incumbents
Eni F. H. Faleomavaega [AS]
Safe
Don Young [AK]
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Safe R
November 4, 2014 Mike Thompson [CA-‐5]
Safe D
Rick Crawford [AR-‐1]
Safe R
Sanford Bishop [GA-‐2]
Safe D
Steve Womack [AR-‐3]
Safe R
*Tulsi Gabbard [HI-‐2]
Safe D
Paul Cook [CA-‐8]
Safe R
Bobby L. Rush [IL-‐1]
Safe D
Jeff Denham [CA-‐10]
Likely R
*Tammy Duckworth [IL-‐8]
Safe D
Darrell Issa [CA-‐49]
Safe R
William Enyart [IL-‐12]
Toss Up
*Duncan Hunter [CA-‐50]
Safe R
John Conyers [MI-‐13]
Safe D
*Mike Coffman [CO-‐6]
Leans R
Tim Walz [MN-‐1]
Safe D
*Ron DeSantis [FL-‐6]
Safe R
Collin Peterson [MN-‐7]
Leans D
Richard Nugent [FL-‐11]
Safe R
Gregorio Sablan [MP]
Safe
Vern Buchanan [FL-‐16]
Safe R
G.K. Butterfield [NC-‐1]
Safe D
Thomas Rooney [FL-‐17]
Safe R
Bill Pascrell [NJ-‐9]
Safe D
*Doug Collins [GA-‐9]
Safe R
Charles Rangel [NY-‐13]
Safe D
John Shimkus [IL-‐15]
Safe R
Jose E. Serrano [NY-‐15]
Safe D
*Adam Kinzinger [IL-‐16]
Safe R
Peter DeFazio [OR-‐4]
Safe D
Larry Bucshon [IN-‐8]
Safe R
Robert C Scott [VA-‐3]
Safe D
Todd Young [IN-‐9]
Safe R
Jim McDermott [WA-‐7]
Safe D
Mike Pompeo [KS-‐4]
Safe R
Ed Whitfield [KY-‐1]
Safe R
Brett Guthrie [KY-‐2]
Safe R
Hal Rogers [KY-‐5]
Safe R
John Fleming [LA-‐4]
Safe R
Vance McAllister [LA-‐5]
Toss Up
Andy Harris [MD-‐1]
Safe R
John Kline [MN-‐2]
Likely R
Steven Palazzo [MS-‐4]
Safe R
Walter Jones [NC-‐3]
Safe R
Rodney Frelinghuysen [NJ-‐11]
Safe R
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November 4, 2014 Steve Pearce [NM-‐2]
Likely R
Mark Amodel [NV-‐2]
Safe R
*Joe Heck [NV-‐3]
Likely R
Peter King [NY-‐2]
Safe R
Michael Grimm [NY-‐11]
Leans D
*Christopher Gibson [NY-‐19]
Leans R
*Brad Wenstrup [OH-‐2]
Safe R
Bill Johnson [OH-‐6]
Likely R
John Boehner [OH-‐8]
Safe R
*Steve Stivers [OH-‐15]
Safe R
*Jim Bridenstine [OK-‐1]
Safe R
*Scott Perry [PA-‐4]
Safe R
Joseph Pitts [PA-‐16]
Safe R
Tim Murphy [PA-‐18]
Safe R
Mark Sanford [SC-‐1]
Safe R
Joe Wilson [SC-‐2]
Safe R
Phil Roe [TN-‐1]
Safe R
John Duncan [TN-‐2]
Safe R
Louie Gohmert [TX-‐1]
Safe R
Ted Poe [TX-‐2]
Safe R
Sam Johnson [TX-‐3]
Safe R
Michael Conaway [TX-‐11]
Safe R
Pete Olson [TX-‐22]
Safe R
Chris Stewart [UT-‐2]
Safe R
Scott Rigell [VA-‐2]
Safe R
Savid Reichert [WA-‐8]
Safe R
Challengers
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November 4, 2014 *Jesse Smith [AL-‐03]
Safe R
*Martha McSally [AZ-‐02]
Toss Up
Patrick Henry Hayes [AR-‐02]
Toss up
Wendy Rogers [AZ-‐09]
Likely D
*Ruben Gallego [AZ-‐07]
Safe D
Dale Mensing [CA-‐02]
Safe D
Ted Lieu [CA-‐33]
Safe D
* # Arthur Moore [CA-‐04]
Safe R
James Kimber [CA-‐50]
Safe R
Joseph McCray [CA-‐06]
Safe D
Vic Meyers [CO-‐4]
Safe R
Stephen Knight [CA-‐25]
Toss Up
*Irv Halter [CO-‐5]
Safe R
*Jeff Gorell [CA-‐26]
Toss Up
James Bryan [FL-‐01]
Safe R
*Paul Chabot [CA-‐31]
Leans D
Michael McKenna [FL-‐10]
Safe R
*Elan Carr [CA-‐33]
Safe D
Will Bronson [FL-‐17]
Safe R
Benjamin Campos [CA-‐38]
Safe D
Robert Montigel [GA-‐06]
Safe R
Stephen Meade [CA-‐51]
Safe D
Thomas Wight [GA-‐07]
Safe R
*Larry Wilske [CA-‐53]
Safe D
*Mark Takai [HI-‐01]
Likely D
Mathew Corey [CT-‐01]
Safe D
*Jim Mowrer [IA-‐04]
Safe R
Carl Domino [FL-‐18]
Likely D
Randall Olsen [IL-‐16]
Safe R
Juan Garcia [Fl-‐23]
Safe D
James Sherow [KS-‐01]
Safe R
Barry Loudermilk [GA-‐11]
Safe R
*Ron Leach [KY-‐02]
Safe R
*Charles Djou [HI-‐01]
Likely D
Kenneth Stepp [KY-‐05]
Safe R
Mariannette Miller-‐Meeks [IA-‐02]
Leans D
*Seth Moulton [MA-‐06]
Leans D
*Lawrence Kaifesh [IL-‐08]
Safe D
Bill Tilghman [MD-‐01]
Safe R
Mike Bost [IL-‐12]
Toss Up
*Jerry Cannon [MI-‐01]
Leans R
Catherine Ping [IN-‐07]
Safe D
Chuck Stadler [MI-‐10]
Safe R
*David Banach [MD-‐02]
Safe D
Jim Evans [MO-‐07]
Safe R
Jeff Gorman [MI-‐13]
Safe D
Ron Dickey [MS-‐01]
Safe R
*Dan Elder [MO-‐01]
Safe D
Doug Magee [MS-‐03]
Safe R
Jacob Turk [MO-‐05]
Safe D
Marshall Adame [NC-‐03]
Safe R
*Ryan Zinke [MT]
Likely R
8
November 4, 2014 Jonathan Barfield [NC-‐07]
Safe R
*Lee Zeldin [NY-‐01]
Leans D
Antonio Blue [NC-‐08]
Safe R
*Chris Day [Ny-‐17]
Safe D
Mark Sullivan [NE-‐3]
Safe R
John Adams [OH-‐03]
Safe D
Fred Kundrata [OH-‐01]
Safe R
*Steve Russell [OK-‐05]
Safe R
Robert Fry [OH-‐05]
Safe R
Cormick Lynch [RI-‐01]
Safe D
David Arthur Tibbs [OH-‐12]
Safe R
Bob Ries [TN-‐05]
Safe D
Richard Scott Wharton [OH-‐15] Safe R
Eddie Zamora [TX-‐15]
Safe D
Earl Everett [OK-‐02]
Safe R
*Corey Roen [TX-‐16]
Safe D
Bert Smith [OK-‐04]
Safe R
*Sean Siebert [TX-‐18]
Safe D
Al McAffrey [OK-‐05]
Safe R
*Larry Smith [TX-‐34]
Safe D
*Manan Trivedi [PA-‐06]
Safe R
Brian Babin [TX-‐36]
Safe R
*Kevin Strouse [PA-‐08]
Safe R
Micah Edmond [VA-‐08]
Safe D
*Corinna Robinson [SD]
Safe R
Vince Danet [VI]
Safe D
Bob Scott [TN-‐02]
Safe R
*Tony Kurtz [WI-‐3]
Safe D
*Dan Cramer [TN-‐07]
Safe R
Daniel P Sebring [WI-‐04]
Safe D
Shirley McKellar [TX-‐01]
Safe R
David Cozad [TX-‐06]
Safe R
Mark Greene [TX-‐12]
Safe R
Neal Marchbanks [TX-‐19]
Safe R
Marco Montoya [TX-‐25]
Safe R
Wesley Reed [TX-‐27]
Safe R
*Louie Minor [TX-‐31]
Safe R
Frank Perez [TX-‐32]
Safe R
Donna McAleer [UT-‐01]
Safe R
Norm Mosher [VA-‐01]
Safe R
Suzanne Patrick [VA-‐02]
Safe R
9
November 4, 2014 Forest Dunbar [AK]
Safe R Independent – Ron Kabat [CA-‐20] -‐ Safe D
*OIF/OEF Veteran # Due to California’s blanket primary, Arthur Moore [R] is running against a fellow republican, incumbent Tom McClintock [R] 5. Summary The issues facing our country—and the veterans community—have never been more urgent. Whether our leaders have worn the uniform or not, and regardless of their political party, they must step forward to support our veterans and their families. After a decade of war this country needs and deserves nothing less.
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