2014 POST Election Analysis 5Nov2014
IAVA’s Post Election Day Analysis of Contested Races for Members of HVAC, SVAC and Veterans Running for Congress It’s the day after election and as veterans look to Congress for leadership and solutions, we have analyzed the results to better understand what this election will mean for our communi-‐ ty. The total number of veterans1 in Congress is expected to decrease from 106 and is unlikely to fall below 100. In all, there will be 20 veterans in the Senate, possibly 21; OEF veteran Dan Sullivan [R] is in a race too close to call with Mark Begich [D] in Alaska. A new class of veterans in the Sen-‐ ate includes; Gary Peters [D-‐MI], Iraq war veteran Joni Ernst [R-‐IA] and Iraq/Afghanistan vet-‐ eran Tom Cotton [R-‐AR]. Including John McCain [R-‐AZ], there will be three combat veterans in the Senate, possibly 4 pending the AK Senate race results. The following is a post mid-‐term election analysis of all contested races nationwide for mem-‐ bers of the (1) Senate Veterans Affairs Committee (SVAC), (2) House Veterans Affairs Commit-‐ tee (HVAC) and for veterans who are running for the (3) US Senate and (4) US House of Repre-‐ sentatives. 1. Senate Veterans Affairs Committee (SVAC) The Republicans have taken control of the Senate, which means there will be a new Chairman and Ranking Member of SVAC. With 100% of votes counted, CNN reports Mark Begich has 102,054 votes (45%) against Iraq Veteran, Dan Sullivan who has 110,203 votes (49%). This race has not yet been called. Senate Veterans Affairs Committee [SVAC] Democrats
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Republicans
Bernie Sanders [VT]
-‐-‐
Richard Burr [NC]
-‐-‐
John Rockefeller [WV]
Retiring
Johnny Isakson [GA]
-‐-‐
Patty Murray [WA]
-‐-‐
Jerry Moran [KS]
-‐-‐
Sherrod Brown [OH]
-‐-‐
John Boozman [AR]
-‐-‐
Jon Tester [MT]
-‐-‐
Dean Heller [NV]
-‐-‐
We define veteran as someone who served in the US Armed Forces
November 5, 2014 Mark Begich [AK]
Leans R
Richard Blumenthal [CT]
-‐-‐
Mazie Hirono [HI]
-‐-‐ -- denotes not up for re-election Race is too close to call
2. House Veterans Affairs Committee (HVAC) Republican Chairman Jeff Miller won re-election and should continue to Chair the Committee. The front-‐runners for Ranking Member also won re-‐election; however, there is no clear indica-‐ tor who the Ranking Member will be. Two races are still too close to call. House Veterans Affairs Committee [HVAC] Democrats
Republicans
Mike Michaud [ME-‐02]
Retiring
Jeff Miller [FL-‐01]
Safe
Corrine Brown [FL-‐05]
Safe
Doug Lamborn [CO-‐05]
Safe
Mark Takano [CA-‐41]
Safe
Gus Bilirakis [FL-‐12]
Likely R
Julia Brownley [CA-‐26]
Toss Up
David Roe [TN-‐01]
Safe
Dina Titus [NV-‐01]
Safe
Bill Flores [TX-‐17]
Safe
Ann Kirkpatrick [AZ-‐01]
Toss Up
Jeff Denham [CA-‐10]
Safe
Raul Ruiz [CA-‐36]
Leans D
Jon Runyan [NJ-‐03]
Retiring
Gloria Negrete McLeod [CA-‐35] Retiring
Tim Huelskamp [KS-‐01]
Safe
Ann McLane Kuster [NH-‐02]
Leans D
*Mike Coffman [CO-‐06]
Leans R
Beto O’Rourke [TX-‐16]
Safe
*Brad Wenstrup [OH-‐02] Likely R
Tim Walz [MN-‐01]
Likely D
Paul Cook [CA-‐08]
Safe
Jackie Walorski [IN-‐02]
Likely R
David Jolly [FL-‐13]
Safe
*OIF/OEF Veteran Race is too close to call 3. Veterans Running For US Senate
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November 5, 2014
As expected, the total number of veterans in the US Senate has not changed dramatically and will remain the same (20) or possibly increase by 1 seat based on the outcome of the AK Sen-‐ ate Race. Three Democrats are leaving the Senate (Walsh, Harkin, Johnson) and Democrat Gary Peters [MI] will join the freshman class of Senators in the 114th Congress. Republican Pat Rob-‐ erts [KS] won a hard fought race and will be joined by newcomers OEF/OIF veteran Tom Cot-‐ ton [R-‐AR] and Joni Ernst [R-‐IA] who served in Iraq. Veterans in the US Senate Democrats
Republicans Incumbents
Ed Markey [MA]
Safe Dem
Jim Inhofe [OK]
Safe GOP
Jack Reed [RI]
Safe Dem
Pat Roberts [KS]
Toss Up
*John Walsh [MT]
Withdrew
Thad Cochran [MS]
Safe GOP
Richard Blumenthal [CT] -‐-‐
John McCain [AZ]
-‐-‐
Tom Carper [DE]
-‐-‐
Johnny Isakson [GA]
-‐-‐
Bill Nelson [FL]
-‐-‐
Mitch McConnell [KY]
Likely GOP
Tom Harkin [IA]
Retiring
Mark Kirk [IL]
-‐-‐
Tim Johnson [SD]
Retiring
Dan Coats [IN]
-‐-‐
Mike Enzi [WY]
Safe GOP
Jeff Sessions [AL]
Safe GOP
Roger Wicker [MS]
-‐-‐
Lindsey Graham [SC]
Safe GOP
Challengers Dave Domina [NE]
Safe GOP
Allen Weh [NM]
Safe Dem
David Alameel [TX]
Safe GOP
Jeff Bell [NJ]
Safe Dem
Gary Peters [MI]
Likely Dem
Mark Zaccaria [RI]
Safe Dem
Campbell Cavasso [HI]
Safe Dem
Scott Brown [NH]
Leans Dem
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November 5, 2014
*Dan Sullivan [AK]
Leans GOP
*Joni Ernst [IA]
Leans GOP
*Tom Cotton [AR]
Likely GOP
Rob Maness [LA]
Toss Up
*OIF/OEF Veteran Race is too close to call 4. Veterans Running For US House of Representatives Out of the 72 incumbent veterans running for re-‐election, 2 lost -‐-‐ one republican and one democrat leaving 70 returning veterans to the House. There will be 12 new veterans in the House of Representatives; OIF veteran Ruben Gallego [AZ-‐07], Ted Lieu [CA-‐33], Stephen Knight [CA-‐25], OIF veteran Mark Takai [HI-‐01], OIF veter-‐ an Jim Mowrer [IA-‐04], Barry Loudermilk [GA-‐11], OIF veteran Seth Moulton [MA-‐06], Mike Bost [IL-‐12], OIF veteran Ryan Zinke [MT], OIF veteran Lee Zeldin [NY-‐01], OIF/OEF veteran Steve Russell [OK-‐05] and Brian Babin [TX-‐36]. There are three races that are still too close to call; OIF/OEF veteran Martha McSally AZ-‐02, OEF veteran Jeff Gorell CA-‐26 and OIF veteran Paul Chabot CA-‐31. Veterans in the United States House of Representatives Democrats
Republicans Incumbents
Eni F. H. Faleomavaega [AS]
Safe
Don Young [AK]
Safe R
Mike Thompson [CA-‐5]
Safe D
Rick Crawford [AR-‐1]
Safe R
Sanford Bishop [GA-‐2]
Safe D
Steve Womack [AR-‐3]
Safe R
*Tulsi Gabbard [HI-‐2]
Safe D
Paul Cook [CA-‐8]
Safe R
Bobby L. Rush [IL-‐1]
Safe D
Jeff Denham [CA-‐10]
Likely R
*Tammy Duckworth [IL-‐8]
Safe D
Darrell Issa [CA-‐49]
Safe R
William Enyart [IL-‐12]
Toss Up
*Duncan Hunter [CA-‐50]
Safe R
John Conyers [MI-‐13]
Safe D
*Mike Coffman [CO-‐6]
Leans R
Tim Walz [MN-‐1]
Safe D
*Ron DeSantis [FL-‐6]
Safe R
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November 5, 2014 Collin Peterson [MN-‐7]
Leans D
Richard Nugent [FL-‐11]
Safe R
Gregorio Sablan [MP]
Safe
Vern Buchanan [FL-‐16]
Safe R
G.K. Butterfield [NC-‐1]
Safe D
Thomas Rooney [FL-‐17]
Safe R
Bill Pascrell [NJ-‐9]
Safe D
*Doug Collins [GA-‐9]
Safe R
Charles Rangel [NY-‐13]
Safe D
John Shimkus [IL-‐15]
Safe R
Jose E. Serrano [NY-‐15]
Safe D
*Adam Kinzinger [IL-‐16]
Safe R
Peter DeFazio [OR-‐4]
Safe D
Larry Bucshon [IN-‐8]
Safe R
Robert C Scott [VA-‐3]
Safe D
Todd Young [IN-‐9]
Safe R
Jim McDermott [WA-‐7]
Safe D
Mike Pompeo [KS-‐4]
Safe R
Ed Whitfield [KY-‐1]
Safe R
Brett Guthrie [KY-‐2]
Safe R
Hal Rogers [KY-‐5]
Safe R
John Fleming [LA-‐4]
Safe R
Vance McAllister [LA-‐5]
Toss Up
Andy Harris [MD-‐1]
Safe R
John Kline [MN-‐2]
Likely R
Steven Palazzo [MS-‐4]
Safe R
Walter Jones [NC-‐3]
Safe R
Rodney Frelinghuysen [NJ-‐11]
Safe R
Steve Pearce [NM-‐2]
Likely R
Mark Amodel [NV-‐2]
Safe R
*Joe Heck [NV-‐3]
Likely R
Peter King [NY-‐2]
Safe R
Michael Grimm [NY-‐11]
Leans D
*Christopher Gibson [NY-‐19]
Leans R
*Brad Wenstrup [OH-‐2]
Safe R
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November 5, 2014 Bill Johnson [OH-‐6]
Likely R
John Boehner [OH-‐8]
Safe R
*Steve Stivers [OH-‐15]
Safe R
*Jim Bridenstine [OK-‐1]
Safe R
*Scott Perry [PA-‐4]
Safe R
Joseph Pitts [PA-‐16]
Safe R
Tim Murphy [PA-‐18]
Safe R
Mark Sanford [SC-‐1]
Safe R
Joe Wilson [SC-‐2]
Safe R
Phil Roe [TN-‐1]
Safe R
John Duncan [TN-‐2]
Safe R
Louie Gohmert [TX-‐1]
Safe R
Ted Poe [TX-‐2]
Safe R
Sam Johnson [TX-‐3]
Safe R
Michael Conaway [TX-‐11]
Safe R
Pete Olson [TX-‐22]
Safe R
Chris Stewart [UT-‐2]
Safe R
Scott Rigell [VA-‐2]
Safe R
David Reichert [WA-‐8]
Safe R
Challengers *Jesse Smith [AL-‐03]
Safe R
*Martha McSally [AZ-‐02]
Toss Up
Patrick Henry Hayes [AR-‐02]
Toss up
Wendy Rogers [AZ-‐09]
Likely D
*Ruben Gallego [AZ-‐07]
Safe D
Dale Mensing [CA-‐02]
Safe D
Ted Lieu [CA-‐33]
Safe D
* # Arthur Moore [CA-‐04]
Safe R
James Kimber [CA-‐50]
Safe R
Joseph McCray [CA-‐06]
Safe D
Vic Meyers [CO-‐4]
Safe R
Stephen Knight [CA-‐25]
Toss Up
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November 5, 2014 *Irv Halter [CO-‐5]
Safe R
*Jeff Gorell [CA-‐26]
Toss Up
James Bryan [FL-‐01]
Safe R
*Paul Chabot [CA-‐31]
Leans D
Michael McKenna [FL-‐10]
Safe R
*Elan Carr [CA-‐33]
Safe D
Will Bronson [FL-‐17]
Safe R
Benjamin Campos [CA-‐38]
Safe D
Robert Montigel [GA-‐06]
Safe R
Stephen Meade [CA-‐51]
Safe D
Thomas Wight [GA-‐07]
Safe R
*Larry Wilske [CA-‐53]
Safe D
*Mark Takai [HI-‐01]
Likely D
Mathew Corey [CT-‐01]
Safe D
*Jim Mowrer [IA-‐04]
Safe R
Carl Domino [FL-‐18]
Likely D
Randall Olsen [IL-‐16]
Safe R
Juan Garcia [Fl-‐23]
Safe D
James Sherow [KS-‐01]
Safe R
Barry Loudermilk [GA-‐11]
Safe R
*Ron Leach [KY-‐02]
Safe R
*Charles Djou [HI-‐01]
Likely D
Kenneth Stepp [KY-‐05]
Safe R
Mariannette Miller-‐Meeks [IA-‐02]
Leans D
*Seth Moulton [MA-‐06]
Leans D
*Lawrence Kaifesh [IL-‐08]
Safe D
Bill Tilghman [MD-‐01]
Safe R
Mike Bost [IL-‐12]
Toss Up
*Jerry Cannon [MI-‐01]
Leans R
Catherine Ping [IN-‐07]
Safe D
Chuck Stadler [MI-‐10]
Safe R
*David Banach [MD-‐02]
Safe D
Jim Evans [MO-‐07]
Safe R
Jeff Gorman [MI-‐13]
Safe D
Ron Dickey [MS-‐01]
Safe R
*Dan Elder [MO-‐01]
Safe D
Doug Magee [MS-‐03]
Safe R
Jacob Turk [MO-‐05]
Safe D
Marshall Adame [NC-‐03]
Safe R
*Ryan Zinke [MT]
Likely R
Jonathan Barfield [NC-‐07]
Safe R
*Lee Zeldin [NY-‐01]
Leans D
Antonio Blue [NC-‐08]
Safe R
*Chris Day [NY-‐17]
Safe D
Mark Sullivan [NE-‐3]
Safe R
John Adams [OH-‐03]
Safe D
Fred Kundrata [OH-‐01]
Safe R
*Steve Russell [OK-‐05]
Safe R
Robert Fry [OH-‐05]
Safe R
Cormick Lynch [RI-‐01]
Safe D
David Arthur Tibbs [OH-‐12]
Safe R
Bob Ries [TN-‐05]
Safe D
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November 5, 2014 Richard Scott Wharton [OH-‐15] Safe R
Eddie Zamora [TX-‐15]
Safe D
Earl Everett [OK-‐02]
Safe R
*Corey Roen [TX-‐16]
Safe D
Bert Smith [OK-‐04]
Safe R
*Sean Siebert [TX-‐18]
Safe D
Al McAffrey [OK-‐05]
Safe R
*Larry Smith [TX-‐34]
Safe D
*Manan Trivedi [PA-‐06]
Safe R
Brian Babin [TX-‐36]
Safe R
*Kevin Strouse [PA-‐08]
Safe R
Micah Edmond [VA-‐08]
Safe D
*Corinna Robinson [SD]
Safe R
Vince Danet [VI]
Safe D
Bob Scott [TN-‐02]
Safe R
*Tony Kurtz [WI-‐3]
Safe D
*Dan Cramer [TN-‐07]
Safe R
Daniel P Sebring [WI-‐04]
Safe D
Shirley McKellar [TX-‐01]
Safe R
David Cozad [TX-‐06]
Safe R
Mark Greene [TX-‐12]
Safe R
Neal Marchbanks [TX-‐19]
Safe R
Marco Montoya [TX-‐25]
Safe R
Wesley Reed [TX-‐27]
Safe R
*Louie Minor [TX-‐31]
Safe R
Frank Perez [TX-‐32]
Safe R
Donna McAleer [UT-‐01]
Safe R
Norm Mosher [VA-‐01]
Safe R
Suzanne Patrick [VA-‐02]
Safe R
Forest Dunbar [AK]
Safe R Independent – Ron Kabat [CA-‐20] -‐ Safe D
*OIF/OEF Veteran race is too close to call IAVA Political Director Bill Rausch is a former Army Major, OIF Veteran and graduate of the United States Military Academy, West Point, NY.
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