2015 1214 PlanalyticsFlashWeatherNA
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Temperature vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
North American Summary • Last year in the U.S., it was the warmest second week of December since 2004 with below normal rainfall and the least snowfall since 2011. Canada was warmest for the week since 1999, with the most rainfall since 2008 and the least snowfall since 2011. • Weekend Review: Uncharacteristic warmth spread from the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast. Seasonal demand lagged, especially in the Northeast, which saw record breaking temperatures including 70 degrees in NYC. A strong storm system brought heavy rainfall to the Mississippi Valley and severe weather to the Deep South, limiting store traffic. Portions of the Upper Midwest and North Central regions received heavy snow. Strong cold anomalies vs. LY were confined to the Great Plains and Rockies. • Mild, Mild, U.S. Well above average temperatures across all U.S. regions provided a challenging environment for seasonal categories, and resulted in the warmest 2nd week of December in over 55 years. The New England, East and West North Central, and West South Central regions were all warmest in 55+ years. The Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic, and East South Central were each second warmest in 55 years. Major markets NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Memphis were all warmest in 55+ years. Kansas City was warmest since 1965, Dallas since 1996, and Baltimore since 2004. • Colder vs. LY out West, but it’s all Relative. While the Mountain and Pacific regions had temperatures well above normal, conditions were colder compared to the record warmth of 2014, providing some year-over-year opportunity for cold weather categories. Overall, the Pacific region was 2nd warmest in 55 years, and the Mountain region 4th warmest. Seattle, San Diego, San Francisco, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Denver all experienced colder temperatures vs. LY. • Dry for Most, Drenched in the Pacific. Retailers were thankful for a dry week across most of the country, boosting the number of holiday shoppers making their way into stores. Nationally, the U.S. had its driest week 2 of December since 2010. The MidAtlantic region was driest in 55+ years, New England since 2000, and the South Atlantic region since 2010. Wet weather was confined to the Pacific region, which had its most rainfall since 1966. Seattle and Portland, OR were both wettest in over 55 years. • Snow Way. Snow totals across the U.S. significantly lagged last year, and were the least for the second week of December in 55+ years. The most notable snowfall was in Denver, although amounts were still below average. • Warm and Dry in Canada Boosted Store Traffic. Canada felt the heat too, recording the warmest 2nd week of December in 55+ years, keeping seasonal demand soft. Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, and Ottawa had the strongest anomalies, and were all warmest for the week in over 55 years. Nationally, conditions were driest since 2005, while snowfall was the least in over 55 years, aiding store traffic. The only major markets to record snow, albeit limited, were Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Calgary.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Category Notables ICED BEVERAGES North America Los Angeles Jacksonville Chicago Phoenix
+10% +29% +17% + 9% -6%
WINTER BOOTS North America Edmonton Seattle Minneapolis New York City
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
-13% +20% -2% -31% -47%
FIREWOOD North America Denver San Francisco Philadelphia Dallas
HOME CENTER TRAFFIC -17% +29% +27% -28% -43%
North America Baltimore St. Louis Atlanta Portland, OR
+3.0% +13.1% +7.6% +4.6% -0.6%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. LY
Precipitation vs. LY
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Snow
Ice
Light Medium Heavy
UNITED UNITEDSTATES STATES
Mass Merchant Traffic +1% Fleece -4% Heaters -18%
Temperature vs. LY
Ice
CANADA CANADA
Hats & Gloves Sweaters Boots
Precipitation vs. LY
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Snow
Ice
Light Medium Heavy
UNITED UNITEDSTATES STATES
Hats & Gloves
-1% -2% -7%
-1%
Ice
CANADA UNITED STATES Outerwear +2%
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
— This Week Outlook & Callouts — • Last year, the U.S. had its warmest 3rd week of December since 2006. Rainfall was below normal. Snowfall was below normal and the least since 2011. Canada had its warmest 3rd week of December since 2011, driest since 2009, and below normal snowfall. • Winter Still on Hold. Temperatures will continue to run well above normal and LY from the Plains to the East Coast. Early week, high temperatures will reach the 70s from the southern Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures moderate into the weekend with Super Saturday having some of the coldest temperatures this week. Still, overall demand for winter apparel categories will remain soft. • Storm Parade. A large storm system will bring rain and thunder to the central U.S. with showers in the East. A narrow band of snow will fall on the back side of the storm from Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas Panhandle through the Northern Plains. By mid-week, another storm will bring light rain & snow to the Plains. • Cold Remains out West. While unusually warm conditions continue across the eastern U.S., the western states can expect another push of colder temperatures this week. In addition, storms are likely to continue for the Intermountain West adding to the early season snowpack. Winter demand will remain robust. • No Help for Canada. Except for a brief mid-week cool down in the West, Canada will continue to average much warmer than normal and LY. Snowfall will be found to the north of the eastern metropolitan areas.
• Last year in the U.S., it was warmest for the week in 50+ years with above normal rainfall and the least snow since 2011. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day were warmest since 2005. Canada was warmest for the week since 1994, with above normal rainfall and the least snow in 50+ years. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day were warmest in 50 years. • More Coal in Retailers' Stockings. The persistent warm temperature pattern in North America is expected to continue with demand remaining unfavorable for winter clothing, hot consumables, and firelogs. Even temperatures in the far West will begin to moderate towards normal or above normal, although remaining colder than LY. • Stormy Weather to Slow Travelers and Last Minute Shoppers. Several storm systems will transit west to east across the country through the week. The precipitation will mostly fall as rain, with the best chance of snow from the Intermountain West through the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. • The Ghost of Christmas Past Lends Canada a Hand. Temperatures in British Columbia will be colder than last year and normal throughout the week. The rest of Canada will stay warmer than normal, but actually average colder vs. last year, which was a very warm Christmas week. www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
North American Summary • Last year in the U.S., it was the warmest second week of December since 2004 with below normal rainfall and the least snowfall since 2011. Canada was warmest for the week since 1999, with the most rainfall since 2008 and the least snowfall since 2011. • Weekend Review: Uncharacteristic warmth spread from the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast. Seasonal demand lagged, especially in the Northeast, which saw record breaking temperatures including 70 degrees in NYC. A strong storm system brought heavy rainfall to the Mississippi Valley and severe weather to the Deep South, limiting store traffic. Portions of the Upper Midwest and North Central regions received heavy snow. Strong cold anomalies vs. LY were confined to the Great Plains and Rockies. • Mild, Mild, U.S. Well above average temperatures across all U.S. regions provided a challenging environment for seasonal categories, and resulted in the warmest 2nd week of December in over 55 years. The New England, East and West North Central, and West South Central regions were all warmest in 55+ years. The Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic, and East South Central were each second warmest in 55 years. Major markets NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Memphis were all warmest in 55+ years. Kansas City was warmest since 1965, Dallas since 1996, and Baltimore since 2004. • Colder vs. LY out West, but it’s all Relative. While the Mountain and Pacific regions had temperatures well above normal, conditions were colder compared to the record warmth of 2014, providing some year-over-year opportunity for cold weather categories. Overall, the Pacific region was 2nd warmest in 55 years, and the Mountain region 4th warmest. Seattle, San Diego, San Francisco, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Denver all experienced colder temperatures vs. LY. • Dry for Most, Drenched in the Pacific. Retailers were thankful for a dry week across most of the country, boosting the number of holiday shoppers making their way into stores. Nationally, the U.S. had its driest week 2 of December since 2010. The MidAtlantic region was driest in 55+ years, New England since 2000, and the South Atlantic region since 2010. Wet weather was confined to the Pacific region, which had its most rainfall since 1966. Seattle and Portland, OR were both wettest in over 55 years. • Snow Way. Snow totals across the U.S. significantly lagged last year, and were the least for the second week of December in 55+ years. The most notable snowfall was in Denver, although amounts were still below average. • Warm and Dry in Canada Boosted Store Traffic. Canada felt the heat too, recording the warmest 2nd week of December in 55+ years, keeping seasonal demand soft. Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, and Ottawa had the strongest anomalies, and were all warmest for the week in over 55 years. Nationally, conditions were driest since 2005, while snowfall was the least in over 55 years, aiding store traffic. The only major markets to record snow, albeit limited, were Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Calgary.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Category Notables ICED BEVERAGES North America Los Angeles Jacksonville Chicago Phoenix
+10% +29% +17% + 9% -6%
WINTER BOOTS North America Edmonton Seattle Minneapolis New York City
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
-13% +20% -2% -31% -47%
FIREWOOD North America Denver San Francisco Philadelphia Dallas
HOME CENTER TRAFFIC -17% +29% +27% -28% -43%
North America Baltimore St. Louis Atlanta Portland, OR
+3.0% +13.1% +7.6% +4.6% -0.6%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. LY
Precipitation vs. LY
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Snow
Ice
Light Medium Heavy
UNITED UNITEDSTATES STATES
Mass Merchant Traffic +1% Fleece -4% Heaters -18%
Temperature vs. LY
Ice
CANADA CANADA
Hats & Gloves Sweaters Boots
Precipitation vs. LY
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Snow
Ice
Light Medium Heavy
UNITED UNITEDSTATES STATES
Hats & Gloves
-1% -2% -7%
-1%
Ice
CANADA UNITED STATES Outerwear +2%
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
— This Week Outlook & Callouts — • Last year, the U.S. had its warmest 3rd week of December since 2006. Rainfall was below normal. Snowfall was below normal and the least since 2011. Canada had its warmest 3rd week of December since 2011, driest since 2009, and below normal snowfall. • Winter Still on Hold. Temperatures will continue to run well above normal and LY from the Plains to the East Coast. Early week, high temperatures will reach the 70s from the southern Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures moderate into the weekend with Super Saturday having some of the coldest temperatures this week. Still, overall demand for winter apparel categories will remain soft. • Storm Parade. A large storm system will bring rain and thunder to the central U.S. with showers in the East. A narrow band of snow will fall on the back side of the storm from Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas Panhandle through the Northern Plains. By mid-week, another storm will bring light rain & snow to the Plains. • Cold Remains out West. While unusually warm conditions continue across the eastern U.S., the western states can expect another push of colder temperatures this week. In addition, storms are likely to continue for the Intermountain West adding to the early season snowpack. Winter demand will remain robust. • No Help for Canada. Except for a brief mid-week cool down in the West, Canada will continue to average much warmer than normal and LY. Snowfall will be found to the north of the eastern metropolitan areas.
• Last year in the U.S., it was warmest for the week in 50+ years with above normal rainfall and the least snow since 2011. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day were warmest since 2005. Canada was warmest for the week since 1994, with above normal rainfall and the least snow in 50+ years. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day were warmest in 50 years. • More Coal in Retailers' Stockings. The persistent warm temperature pattern in North America is expected to continue with demand remaining unfavorable for winter clothing, hot consumables, and firelogs. Even temperatures in the far West will begin to moderate towards normal or above normal, although remaining colder than LY. • Stormy Weather to Slow Travelers and Last Minute Shoppers. Several storm systems will transit west to east across the country through the week. The precipitation will mostly fall as rain, with the best chance of snow from the Intermountain West through the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. • The Ghost of Christmas Past Lends Canada a Hand. Temperatures in British Columbia will be colder than last year and normal throughout the week. The rest of Canada will stay warmer than normal, but actually average colder vs. last year, which was a very warm Christmas week. www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
