Origin Property Outperform (17E TP Bt13.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt10.90
Property Development March 1, 2017
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
2016 net profit grew 65% YoY Results date: February 28, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.023
1.293
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
6.5%
1.3%
Reuters / Bloomberg
ORI.BK/ORI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,101.27
Par (Bt)
0.50
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
12.00/341.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/7.62
52 week High / Low (Bt)
12.30/5.52
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
2,555.00
NVDR (%)
0.40
Estimated free float (%)
8.65
Beta
1.49
URL
www.origin.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992
[email protected] n.a.
Maintain Outperform with the 2017E TP at Bt13 We maintain Outperform with the pre‐XD 2017E TP at Bt13. Post‐XD, our 2017E TP will decrease to Bt9.3, owing to 441mn shares derived from the capital increase, which will cause a dilution effect of 28.6% on ORI’s EPS. We still like ORI for its high backlog to secure revenue for the next three years. 4Q16 net profit rose 154.7% YoY and 100.9% QoQ ORI reported 4Q16 net profit at Bt318mn (+154.7% YoY, +100.9% QoQ), 11% below our estimate, mainly due to lower‐than‐expected transfers by 18%. 4Q16 transfers were Bt1.29bn (+85.5% YoY, +46.6% QoQ). The average GPM was 47.5% (our estimate was 42.9%), better than 45.3% in 4Q15 and 42.9% in 3Q16. The SG&A expense‐to‐revenue ratio was 17.0%, lower than 26% in 4Q15 and 17% in 3Q16. 2016 net profit grew 65% YoY ORI's 2016 net profit was Bt638mn (+65.0% YoY), 6% below our estimate due to lower‐than‐expected transfers by 8%. Transfers were Bt3.15bn, increasing 56.9% YoY due to higher condo transfers than 2015. The average GPM was 45.3%, higher than 42.9% in 2015 and our forecast at 43.4%. The SG&A expense‐to‐revenue ratio was 21.1%, higher than 20.1% in 2015 due to the higher promotional and marketing expenses of newly launched projects in 2016. Maintain 2017‐18E net profit We maintain 2017E net profit at Bt1.2bn, rising by 87.5% YoY, backed by higher transfers of Bt5.68bn (+80.3% YoY), and 2018E net profit at Bt1.45bn (+21.0% YoY). Announced 2.5:1 stock dividend and cash dividend of Bt0.24 for the latter three‐month period of 2016, implying dividend yield of 2.2% ORI has announced a 2.5:1 stock dividend, which is equal to Bt0.20 per share, and a cash dividend of Bt0.04 per share, which together amount to Bt0.24 per share and imply a dividend yield of 2.2%. The stock will go XD on April 17 and the dividend will be paid on May 3, 2017. The purpose of the stock dividend payment is to increase shares’ liquidity and maintain cash on hand to finance its planned expansion this year. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 550 70 0.16 9.7 0.16 9.7 0.19 0.64 2014 69.1 69.1 57.8 17.0 1.8 23.9 347.2
2015 2,010 386 0.64 312.1 0.64 312.1 0.22 2.91 2015 16.8 16.8 13.0 3.7 2.0 38.0 22.7
2016 3,153 638 0.58 (10.1) 0.58 (10.1) 0.71 2.49 2016 18.7 18.7 16.3 4.3 6.6 28.4 0.7
66 (0) 2624‐6248
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2017E 5,684 1,197 1.09 87.5 1.09 87.5 0.43 3.15 2017E 9.9 9.9 9.6 3.4 4.0 38.5 112.1
2018E 6,932 1,450 1.31 21.0 1.31 21.0 0.53 3.94 2018E 8.2 8.2 9.1 2.7 4.9 37.0 142.2
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) FY Ended 31 Dec
4Q15
3Q16
4Q16
% YoY
% QoQ
2015
2016
% YoY
Revenue from project sales Total revenue Gross profit
693 693 308
877 877 376
1,285 1,285 610
85.5 85.5 98.3
46.6 46.6 62.3
2,010 2,010 861
3,153 3,153 1,429
56.9 56.9 65.9
EBITDA
189
230
443
134.1
92.8
530
850
60.3
Interest expense
(3)
(2)
(2)
(41.1)
(31.0)
(17)
(7)
(60.6)
Other income
12
8
9
(26.5)
12.4
45
46
2.2
Income tax
(33)
(40)
(79)
137.8
98.6
(98)
(162)
64.9
Net profit (loss)
125
158
318
154.7
100.9
386
638
65.0
Core net profit (loss)
125
158
318
154.7
100.9
386
638
65.0
Reported EPS (THB)
0.21
0.24
0.29
38.8
20.5
0.64
0.58
(10.1)
Core EPS (THB)
0.21
0.24
0.29
38.8
20.5
0.64
0.58
(10.1)
Gross margin – project sales (%)
44.4
42.9
47.5
42.9
45.3
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
44.4
42.9
47.5
42.9
45.3
EBITDA margin (%)
27.3
26.2
34.4
26.4
27.0
Net margin (%)
18.0
18.0
24.7
19.2
20.2
Current ratio (x)
0.8
0.9
0.5
2.4
0.5
Interest coverage (x)
57.5
83.7
243.2
29.1
119.1
Debt / equity (x)
0.9
1.3
1.5
0.9
1.5
BVPS (Bt)
2.91
2.88
1.99
2.91
1.99
ROE (%)
37.8
20.8
24.6
38.0
24.6
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068