Modernform Group Outperform (17E TP Bt6.30)
Earnings Review
Close Bt5.80
Home & Office Products March 1, 2017
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
4Q16 earnings recover after bottoming out; 46% growth expected in 2017E Results date: February 27, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.275
0.250
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
16.4%
52%
Reuters / Bloomberg
MODERN.BK/MODERN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
750.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
4.00/125.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
42.00/4.42
52 week High / Low (Bt)
8.55/5.55
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
686.00
NVDR (%)
1.55
Estimated free float (%)
64.75
Beta
0.72
URL
www.modernform.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul Analyst , no 17621
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6258
2017E earnings to grow by 46%; rating upgraded to Outperform We have seen signs of recovery in 4Q16 earnings and thus expect MODERN’s 2017E earnings growth to rebound by 46% to Bt241mn after having bottomed out in 2016. The current share price implies 9% upside to our DDM‐based target price of Bt6.30/share. We project dividend yields of 5.5‐6.5% in 2017‐18E. Our rating is thus upgraded to “Outperform” (from Underperform). 2016 core profit fell by 44%YoY MODERN posted 2016 net profit of Bt173mn. The result was down by 72%YoY because in 2015 the firm booked extra gain from the disposal of TPAC. The core profit for 2016 amounted to Bt165m, which was 8% better than expected. The core profit was down by 44% YoY because of the following reasons. First, sales dropped by 19%YoY due to the delay of deliveries to clients, i.e., residential project developers. Second, the gross profit margin (GPM) narrowed to 31.4% vs. 33.5% in 2015 due to a narrower margin from projects. Finally, the shared profit from affiliates fell by 98% after the disposal of TPAC. 4Q16 core profit jumped 237%YoY and 74%QoQ, with a better GPM MODERN posted 4Q16 net profit of Bt66mn, down 81%YoY but up 99%QoQ. Exclusive of the extra gain from divestment, the firm’s core profit for the quarter jumped by 237%YoY and 74%QoQ to Bt58mn because the GPM improved to 32.9% (vs. 31.6% in 4Q15 and 3Q16) and SG&A to sales dropped to 26.5% (vs. 26.7% in 4Q15 and 30.7% in 3Q16). Net cash position intact; 2H16 DPS announced at Bt0.15 The firm reported net cash of Bt286mn, with cash on hand of Bt398mn (EPS: Bt0.53) and short‐term liabilities of Bt153mn as of the end of 2016. Its shareholders’ equity stood at Bt2.43bn (BV= Bt3.24/share). The firm announced a 2H16 DPS of Bt0.15. It will go XD on 4 May‐17 and pay dividends on 23 May‐17. The current share price implies a dividend yield of 5.2% p.a.. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 3,550 785 1.05 0.55 ‐1% 1.00 3.58
2015 3,654 624 0.83 0.39 ‐29% 1.00 3.39
2016 2,976 173 0.23 0.22 ‐44% 0.25 3.24
2017E 3,176 241 0.32 0.32 46% 0.32 3.31
2018E 3,335 282 0.38 0.38 17% 0.38 3.37
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 13.98 12.40 2.16 17.2% 15.2% cash
2015 19.67 14.46 2.29 17.2% 23.8% cash
2016 35.30 36.20 2.39 4.3% 7.0% cash
2017E 24.11 17.38 2.34 5.5% 9.8% cash
2018E 20.60 15.66 2.30 6.5% 11.3% cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1 : 4Q16 earnings review Consolidated Profit and Loss FY Dec (Btm)
4Q15
3Q16
4Q16
%YoY
%QoQ
2015
2016
Revenue
887
752
765
(13.8)
1.7
3,654
2,976
(18.6)
Gross profit
281
237
252
(10.4)
6.1
1,224
935
(23.6)
EBITDA
75
34
76
2.1
124.4
481
192
(60.1)
Interest expense
(1)
(3)
(2) 58.7
(18.2)
(10)
Other income
34
26
23
(15)
(7)
(16)
0
0
328
(9)
%YoY
(0.7)
(30.5) (9.0)
117
112
(4.1)
4.3
140.9
(75)
(40)
(46.9)
0
nm
nm
0
0
nm
0
8
nm
nm
328
8
nm
16
1
(1)
nm
nm
75
1
nm
345
33
66
(80.8) 99.2
624
173
(72.3)
17
33
58
237.3
296
165
(44.3)
Reported EPS (THB)
0.46
0.04
0.09
(80.8) 99.2 0.83 0.23
(72.3)
Gross margin
31.6
31.5
32.9
33.5 31.4
EBITDA margin
8.4
4.5
10.0
13.2
6.5
Norm. profit margin
1.9
4.4
7.6
8.1
5.5
Net debt to equity (x)
cash
cash
cash
cash
cash
Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss)
Source: MODERN and KTZMICO Research
74.2
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068