Thai Metal Trade Outperform (17E TP Bt18.50)
Earnings Review
Close Bt17.70
Steel
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
February 20, 2017
Upbeat 2016 and 4Q16 earnings Results date: February 17, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.770
1.200
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐53.8%
24.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TMT.BK/TMT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
435.38
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
8.00/220.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.99
52 week High / Low (Bt)
18.10/8.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
825.00 2.82
Estimated free float (%)
21.29
Beta
0.75
URL
www.thaimetaltrade.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul Analyst, no. 17621
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6258
One of the most attractive dividend plays in 2016 ... TMT’s 4Q16 and 2016 earnings came out better than expected on the back of a better‐than‐expected gross profit margin and lower‐than‐ expected expenses. We are likely to revise up our earnings estimates for TMT after the analyst meeting this afternoon. We still like TMT for its effective management both in terms of raw materials and product varieties to meet the market demand. Its market share has continued to increase while the gross profit margin and profitability have remained strong. TMT offered an excellent dividend yield of 8.5% in 2016. Given the current share price, we have to downgrade our rating to “Outperform” (from Buy), with the DDM‐based target price of Bt18.50/share. 4Q16 earnings grew by 220%YoY and 42%QoQ, 28% better than expected TMT reported 4Q16 net profit of Bt205mn, soaring by 220%YoY (sales and gross profit margin increased) and 42%QoQ (better gross profit margin). The result beat our projection by 28% because the gross profit margin was better than expected and the operating expenses were lower than expected. The sales for the quarter amounted to Bt3.0bn (+15%YoY, ‐8%QoQ) while the gross profit margin improved to 11% vs. 8% in 4Q15 and 9% in 3Q16. 2016 earnings growth hit a new high at +184%YoY The firm’s net profit hit a new high in 2016 at Bt912mn, up 184%YoY. The result beat our estimate by 5%. The growth drivers included an 8% increase in sales to Bt12.5bn (sales grew by 14% to 650,000 tons due to clients’ market share expansion while the average selling price dropped by 5.4%). Meanwhile, the gross profit margin improved to 12.7% vs. 7% in 2015 due to economies of scale and lower excess supply (i.e., because China cut production and Thailand hiked import tariffs). Financial position remained strong; 2016 DPS was announced at Bt1.5 As of the end of 2016, the net D/E ratio stood at a mere 0.94x, with interest bearing debt of Bt2.85bn (i.e., short‐term loan used as working capital). The capital base remained strong at Bt2.83bn. TMT announced to pay dividends at Bt1.5/share for the 2016 performance, based on a dividend payout of 72%. The stock will go XD on 3 Mar‐17 and the dividends will be paid on 19 Apr‐17. The announced DPS implies a dividend yield of 8.5%. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm EPS (Bt) Norm EPS grw (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 12,251 334 0.77 0.77 ‐24% 0.65 4.98 2014 23.06 4.48 3.55 3.7% 15.4% 114.7%
2015 11,569 321 0.74 0.74 ‐4% 0.65 5.07 2015 24.05 4.69 3.49 3.7% 14.7% 79.9%
2016 12,465 912 2.09 2.09 184% 1.50 6.51 2016E 8.46 1.29 2.72 8.5% 36.2% 94.4%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2017E 15,006 557 1.28 1.28 ‐39% 1.02 6.28 2017E 13.85 1.89 2.82 5.8% 20.0% 121.2%
2018E 16,514 650 1.49 1.49 17% 1.19 6.75 2018E 11.86 1.64 2.62 6.7% 22.9% 119.3%
Figure 1 : 4Q16 and 2016 earnings results
Consolidated Profit and Loss FY Dec (Btm) Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest Expenses Net other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary items Gn(Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt)
4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 2,635 3,297 3,018 203 291 330 122 220 299 (12) (13) (14) 15 14 15 (19) (35) (51) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 144 205 64 144 205 0.15 0.33 0.47
Gross margin EBITDA margin Net profit margin Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Effective tax rate
7.7% 4.6% 2.4% 1.34 10.11 22.6%
8.8% 6.7% 4.4% 1.23 17.22 19.7%
%YoY 15% 62% 146% 17% 4% 172% nm nm nm 220% 220% 219%
%QoQ 2015 2016 ‐8% 11,569 12,465 13% 833 1584 36% 547 1296 10% (60) (48) 10% 67 57 43% (84) (225) nm 0 0 nm 0 0 nm 0 0 42% 321 912 42% 321 912 42% 0.73 2.08
10.9% 9.9% 6.8% 0.00 21.34 19.8%
7.2% 4.7% 2.8% 1.25 9.19 20.7%
%YoY 8% 90% 137% ‐19% ‐15% 169% nm nm nm 184% 184% 184%
12.7% 10.4% 7.3% 1.25 26.79 19.8%
Source: TMT, KT Z Research Figure 2 : Quarterly sales volume and gross profit margin Sales volume (ton)
Gross margin
TMT's quarterly sales volume & GM
18.0%
200,000 Sales volumes (ton)
16.7%
Gross margin (%)
180,000
16.0% 14.7%
160,000
14.0% 13.0% 11.0%
140,000
10.9%
12.0%
120,000 9.8% 100,000
8.1%
7.0%
7.6%
80,000
7.7% 7.1%
6.8%
6.9%
60,000
10.0%
8.5%
8.6% 8.2%
8.6%
7.0% 6.0%
5.1%
8.8%
6.0% 6.7% 6.0%
8.0% 6.0% 4.0%
40,000
4Q16
3Q16
2Q16
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
0.0%
3Q11
0
2Q11
2.0%
1Q11
20,000
Source: TMT, KT Z Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note:
KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore,
prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, TFD. KT ZMICO is a co underwriter of RPH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068