Amata Corporation - Global Alliance Partners
Amata Corporation Outperform (17E TP Bt15.10)
Earnings Review
Close Bt11.50
Property Development November 15, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
3Q16 net profit decreased YoY and QoQ Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.893
1.133
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐12.7%
‐21.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
AMATA.BK/AMATA TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,067.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
12.00/346.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/26.24
52 week High / Low (Bt)
14.70/10.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
3,325.00
NVDR (%)
8.94
Estimated free float (%)
70.5
Beta
0.82
URL
www.amata.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Maintain Outperform and 17E TP of Bt15.1 We maintain Outperform and the 17E TP of Bt15.1. Due to slower land transfers, we expect 4Q16E net profit to be flat QoQ as a big portion of AMATA’s backlog of Bt2.4bn at end 3Q16 is likely to be realized next year. Hence, 2016E net profit will likely show more negative growth than our current estimate, but we will see growth of profit in 2017E. 3Q16 earnings decreased YoY and QoQ AMATA reported 3Q16 net profit at Bt183mn (‐59.9% YoY, +4.6% QoQ). The decrease YoY and QoQ was mainly from declining industrial land sales revenue while utility and rental business revenue improved by 15.6% YoY and was flat (‐0.7%) QoQ. 3Q16 land transfers were Bt139mn (‐88.6% YoY, ‐44.0% QoQ) as AMATA’s transfers totaled 54 rai (vs. 264 rai in 3Q15 and 60 rai in 2Q16). The average GPM was 41.6% (vs. 53.0% in 3Q15 and 50.2% in 2Q16), decreasing from no transfers of AMATA Nakorn, which have a good margin. SG&A to revenue was 23.7% (vs. 15.5% in 3Q15 and 27.9% in 2Q16). Share of income from associates was Bt150mn, improving from a loss of Bt6mn in 3Q15 and Bt131bn (+14.6% QoQ) in 2Q16. This was because some of its associates, specifically power plant companies, contributed more shared gain from a new power plant that started operating in 2Q16. 9M16 net profit was 55% of our 2016E forecast AMATA’s 9M16 net profit was only 55% of our 2016E forecast at Bt832mn (‐31.6% YoY). We will fine‐tune our forecast after getting more information from the company. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
Revenues (Btmn)
7,262
7,358
5,170
4,378
5,044
Net profit (Btmn)
1,516
2,224
1,216
832
948
1.42
2.08
1.14
0.78
0.89
1.0
46.7
(45.3)
(31.5)
13.9
1.42
2.08
0.81
0.78
0.89 13.9
EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%)
15.7
46.7
(61.1)
(3.8)
Dividend (Bt)
0.50
0.70
0.46
0.32
0.35
BV (Bt)
9.55
11.45
12.65
12.59
13.34
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
PER (x)
8.1
5.5
10.1
14.7
12.9
Normalized PER (x)
8.1
5.5
14.2
14.7
12.9
Worarat Powpaka
EV/EBITDA (x)
5.9
4.6
7.3
11.4
10.7
Analyst, no. 17992
PBV (x)
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
Dividend yield (%)
4.3
6.1
4.0
2.8
3.0
ROE (%)
15.9
19.9
9.5
6.2
6.9
Net gearing (%)
42.6
28.8
11.0
51.2
53.2
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec
3Q15
2Q16
3Q16
% YoY
% QoQ
9M16
% YoY
2016E
% YoY
Industrial Land sales Income from Utility Rental income Total revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Core net profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Core EPS (THB) Gross margin ‐ land sales (%) Gross margin ‐ utility (%) Gross margin ‐ rental (%) Gross margin ‐ overall (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
1,217 365 127 1,764 936 789 (66) 51 (133) 0 (6) 457 457 0.43 0.43 58.6 22.6 66.7 53.0 44.7 25.9 2.1 10.8 0.9 11.6 21.9
249 440 132 879 441 309 (66) 24 (56) 0 131 192 192 0.18 0.18 65.8 32.7 57.1 50.2 35.1 21.8 1.9 3.3 0.8 12.6 6.8
139 435 134 708 294 268 (60) 52 (24) 0 150 183 183 0.17 0.17 58.5 30.3 60.7 41.6 37.8 25.9 1.9 3.0 0.9 12.5 4.8
(88.6) 19.3 5.1 (59.9) (68.5) (66.1) (9.1) 2.7 (81.8) n.m. n.m. (59.9) (59.9) (59.9) (59.9)
(44.0) (1.2) 0.8 (19.5) (33.2) (13.3) (9.9) 117.5 (56.7) n.m. 14.6 (4.6) (4.6) (4.6) (4.6)
641 1,286 389 2,373 1,112 859 (199) 95 (118) 0 305 455 455 0.43 0.43 64.2 31.7 60.4 46.8 36.2 19.2 1.9 3.0 0.9 12.5 4.8
(72.2) 21.5 (19.5) (39.2) (38.5) (41.1) (15.6) (35.7) (66.3) n.m. 241.3 (56.0) (33.3) (56.0) (33.3)
2,031 1,717 572 4,378 2,169 1,677 (295) 99 (252) 0 267 832 832 0.78 0.78 60.0 32.0 60.0 49.5 38.3 19.0 1.9 4.4 0.9 12.6 6.2
(33.8) 20.0 (7.0) (15.3) (7.5) (11.4) (3.5) (53.1) (36.3) n.m. 74.1 (31.5) (3.8) (31.5) (3.8)
YTD (% 2016E) 31.5 74.9 68.0 54.2 51.3 51.2 67.6 96.3 46.6 n.m. 114.4 54.7 54.7 54.7 54.7
Source: AMATA, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 7,262 (3,727) 3,535 (1,241) 2,814 277 2,538 (350) 244 2,287 (359) 0 0 99 1,516 1.42 1.42 1,516 1.42 0.50
2014 7,358 (3,540) 3,817 (1,019) 3,395 352 3,043 (360) 245 2,910 (350) 0 0 226 2,224 2.08 2.08 2,224 2.08 0.70
2015 5,170 (2,824) 2,346 (972) 1,892 308 1,585 (306) 211 2,289 (396) 0 857 153 1,216 1.14 1.14 865 0.81 0.46
2016E 4,378 (2,209) 2,169 (978) 1,677 388 1,289 (295) 99 1,261 (252) 0 0 267 832 0.78 0.78 832 0.78 0.32
2017E 5,044 (2,673) 2,371 (1,022) 1,860 411 1,449 (309) 100 1,437 (287) 0 0 297 948 0.89 0.89 948 0.89 0.35
2013 1,952 508 5,976 11,703 121 22,203 2,296 5,387 12,012 1,067 10,191 22,203
2014 1,997 321 8,003 9,804 144 22,137 2,511 4,748 9,922 1,067 12,215 22,137
2015 3,394 269 7,555 11,522 127 25,451 3,857 2,886 11,951 1,067 13,501 25,451
2016E 1,000 259 9,743 11,276 108 25,042 4,407 5,059 11,614 1,067 13,429 25,042
2017E 1,000 303 10,606 11,978 126 26,835 4,722 5,444 12,599 1,067 14,237 26,835
2013 1,516 466 277 577 2,835 (2,606) (479) (3,085) 600 0 (702) (342) (444) (695) 471 0.44
2014 2,224 553 352 (273) 2,856 (1,503) (62) (1,566) (424) 0 (591) (364) (1,378) (88) 1,031 0.97
2015 1,216 118 308 (525) 1,118 1,609 779 2,388 (516) 0 (1,438) 579 (1,375) 2,131 (2,732) (2.56)
2016E 832 (261) 388 (5,077) (4,118) (1,076) 393 (682) 792 0 (416) 2,272 2,648 (2,152) (4,918) (4.61)
2017E 948 (291) 411 (683) 385 (1,100) 156 (944) 206 0 (341) 694 559 0 (415) (0.39)
2013 29.4 19.3 1.0 48.7 38.8 34.9 20.9 20.9 15.7
2014 1.3 20.6 46.7 51.9 46.1 41.4 30.2 30.2 12.0
2015 (29.7) (44.3) (45.3) 45.4 36.6 30.6 23.5 16.7 17.3
2016E (15.3) (11.4) (31.5) 49.5 38.3 29.4 19.0 19.0 20.0
2017E 15.2 10.9 13.9 47.0 36.9 28.7 18.8 18.8 20.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA, CI.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
Earnings Review
Close Bt11.50
Property Development November 15, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
3Q16 net profit decreased YoY and QoQ Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.893
1.133
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐12.7%
‐21.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
AMATA.BK/AMATA TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,067.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
12.00/346.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/26.24
52 week High / Low (Bt)
14.70/10.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
3,325.00
NVDR (%)
8.94
Estimated free float (%)
70.5
Beta
0.82
URL
www.amata.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Maintain Outperform and 17E TP of Bt15.1 We maintain Outperform and the 17E TP of Bt15.1. Due to slower land transfers, we expect 4Q16E net profit to be flat QoQ as a big portion of AMATA’s backlog of Bt2.4bn at end 3Q16 is likely to be realized next year. Hence, 2016E net profit will likely show more negative growth than our current estimate, but we will see growth of profit in 2017E. 3Q16 earnings decreased YoY and QoQ AMATA reported 3Q16 net profit at Bt183mn (‐59.9% YoY, +4.6% QoQ). The decrease YoY and QoQ was mainly from declining industrial land sales revenue while utility and rental business revenue improved by 15.6% YoY and was flat (‐0.7%) QoQ. 3Q16 land transfers were Bt139mn (‐88.6% YoY, ‐44.0% QoQ) as AMATA’s transfers totaled 54 rai (vs. 264 rai in 3Q15 and 60 rai in 2Q16). The average GPM was 41.6% (vs. 53.0% in 3Q15 and 50.2% in 2Q16), decreasing from no transfers of AMATA Nakorn, which have a good margin. SG&A to revenue was 23.7% (vs. 15.5% in 3Q15 and 27.9% in 2Q16). Share of income from associates was Bt150mn, improving from a loss of Bt6mn in 3Q15 and Bt131bn (+14.6% QoQ) in 2Q16. This was because some of its associates, specifically power plant companies, contributed more shared gain from a new power plant that started operating in 2Q16. 9M16 net profit was 55% of our 2016E forecast AMATA’s 9M16 net profit was only 55% of our 2016E forecast at Bt832mn (‐31.6% YoY). We will fine‐tune our forecast after getting more information from the company. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
Revenues (Btmn)
7,262
7,358
5,170
4,378
5,044
Net profit (Btmn)
1,516
2,224
1,216
832
948
1.42
2.08
1.14
0.78
0.89
1.0
46.7
(45.3)
(31.5)
13.9
1.42
2.08
0.81
0.78
0.89 13.9
EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%)
15.7
46.7
(61.1)
(3.8)
Dividend (Bt)
0.50
0.70
0.46
0.32
0.35
BV (Bt)
9.55
11.45
12.65
12.59
13.34
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
PER (x)
8.1
5.5
10.1
14.7
12.9
Normalized PER (x)
8.1
5.5
14.2
14.7
12.9
Worarat Powpaka
EV/EBITDA (x)
5.9
4.6
7.3
11.4
10.7
Analyst, no. 17992
PBV (x)
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
Dividend yield (%)
4.3
6.1
4.0
2.8
3.0
ROE (%)
15.9
19.9
9.5
6.2
6.9
Net gearing (%)
42.6
28.8
11.0
51.2
53.2
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec
3Q15
2Q16
3Q16
% YoY
% QoQ
9M16
% YoY
2016E
% YoY
Industrial Land sales Income from Utility Rental income Total revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Core net profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Core EPS (THB) Gross margin ‐ land sales (%) Gross margin ‐ utility (%) Gross margin ‐ rental (%) Gross margin ‐ overall (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
1,217 365 127 1,764 936 789 (66) 51 (133) 0 (6) 457 457 0.43 0.43 58.6 22.6 66.7 53.0 44.7 25.9 2.1 10.8 0.9 11.6 21.9
249 440 132 879 441 309 (66) 24 (56) 0 131 192 192 0.18 0.18 65.8 32.7 57.1 50.2 35.1 21.8 1.9 3.3 0.8 12.6 6.8
139 435 134 708 294 268 (60) 52 (24) 0 150 183 183 0.17 0.17 58.5 30.3 60.7 41.6 37.8 25.9 1.9 3.0 0.9 12.5 4.8
(88.6) 19.3 5.1 (59.9) (68.5) (66.1) (9.1) 2.7 (81.8) n.m. n.m. (59.9) (59.9) (59.9) (59.9)
(44.0) (1.2) 0.8 (19.5) (33.2) (13.3) (9.9) 117.5 (56.7) n.m. 14.6 (4.6) (4.6) (4.6) (4.6)
641 1,286 389 2,373 1,112 859 (199) 95 (118) 0 305 455 455 0.43 0.43 64.2 31.7 60.4 46.8 36.2 19.2 1.9 3.0 0.9 12.5 4.8
(72.2) 21.5 (19.5) (39.2) (38.5) (41.1) (15.6) (35.7) (66.3) n.m. 241.3 (56.0) (33.3) (56.0) (33.3)
2,031 1,717 572 4,378 2,169 1,677 (295) 99 (252) 0 267 832 832 0.78 0.78 60.0 32.0 60.0 49.5 38.3 19.0 1.9 4.4 0.9 12.6 6.2
(33.8) 20.0 (7.0) (15.3) (7.5) (11.4) (3.5) (53.1) (36.3) n.m. 74.1 (31.5) (3.8) (31.5) (3.8)
YTD (% 2016E) 31.5 74.9 68.0 54.2 51.3 51.2 67.6 96.3 46.6 n.m. 114.4 54.7 54.7 54.7 54.7
Source: AMATA, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 7,262 (3,727) 3,535 (1,241) 2,814 277 2,538 (350) 244 2,287 (359) 0 0 99 1,516 1.42 1.42 1,516 1.42 0.50
2014 7,358 (3,540) 3,817 (1,019) 3,395 352 3,043 (360) 245 2,910 (350) 0 0 226 2,224 2.08 2.08 2,224 2.08 0.70
2015 5,170 (2,824) 2,346 (972) 1,892 308 1,585 (306) 211 2,289 (396) 0 857 153 1,216 1.14 1.14 865 0.81 0.46
2016E 4,378 (2,209) 2,169 (978) 1,677 388 1,289 (295) 99 1,261 (252) 0 0 267 832 0.78 0.78 832 0.78 0.32
2017E 5,044 (2,673) 2,371 (1,022) 1,860 411 1,449 (309) 100 1,437 (287) 0 0 297 948 0.89 0.89 948 0.89 0.35
2013 1,952 508 5,976 11,703 121 22,203 2,296 5,387 12,012 1,067 10,191 22,203
2014 1,997 321 8,003 9,804 144 22,137 2,511 4,748 9,922 1,067 12,215 22,137
2015 3,394 269 7,555 11,522 127 25,451 3,857 2,886 11,951 1,067 13,501 25,451
2016E 1,000 259 9,743 11,276 108 25,042 4,407 5,059 11,614 1,067 13,429 25,042
2017E 1,000 303 10,606 11,978 126 26,835 4,722 5,444 12,599 1,067 14,237 26,835
2013 1,516 466 277 577 2,835 (2,606) (479) (3,085) 600 0 (702) (342) (444) (695) 471 0.44
2014 2,224 553 352 (273) 2,856 (1,503) (62) (1,566) (424) 0 (591) (364) (1,378) (88) 1,031 0.97
2015 1,216 118 308 (525) 1,118 1,609 779 2,388 (516) 0 (1,438) 579 (1,375) 2,131 (2,732) (2.56)
2016E 832 (261) 388 (5,077) (4,118) (1,076) 393 (682) 792 0 (416) 2,272 2,648 (2,152) (4,918) (4.61)
2017E 948 (291) 411 (683) 385 (1,100) 156 (944) 206 0 (341) 694 559 0 (415) (0.39)
2013 29.4 19.3 1.0 48.7 38.8 34.9 20.9 20.9 15.7
2014 1.3 20.6 46.7 51.9 46.1 41.4 30.2 30.2 12.0
2015 (29.7) (44.3) (45.3) 45.4 36.6 30.6 23.5 16.7 17.3
2016E (15.3) (11.4) (31.5) 49.5 38.3 29.4 19.0 19.0 20.0
2017E 15.2 10.9 13.9 47.0 36.9 28.7 18.8 18.8 20.0
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Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA, CI.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
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KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
