An Executable Plan for Stockpile Modernization

An Executable Plan for Stockpile Modernization Derek Wartman Project on Nuclear Issues 2013 Summer Conference Sandia National Laboratories July 31-August 1, 2013

Reviewing the U.S. Stockpile Life Extension Plans and the Risk of Fiscal Austerity SAND 2013-5107C

The opinions contained in this presentation are the authors’ and do not represent the opinions of Sandia National Laboratories, the National Nuclear Security Administration, or the US Government. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. SAND NO. 2011-XXXXP

Outline  Requirements for a 21st Century Nuclear Weapons Stockpile  National Nuclear Security Administration’s Executable Plan for Stockpile Modernization  Nuclear Weapons Council’s 3+2 Strategic Vision  The Cost of Modernization  Conclusions

2

Requirements for a 21st Century Stockpile  2010 Nuclear Posture Review  Strategic deterrence and stability at reduced force levels  Strengthen regional deterrence and reassure U.S. allies and partners  Sustain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear arsenal

 President’s Speech at the Brandenburg Gate  1/3 reduction in deployed strategic weapons  Reductions in tactical nuclear weapons  Ratification of Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

3

NNSA’s Baseline Life Extension Plan NNSA FY2014 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan

 Stockpile Modernization Key Objectives    

Enhanced surety for all stockpile weapon systems Increased sustainability - no requirement for nuclear testing Develop and maintain next generation weaponeers Long term sustainment of nuclear weapon infrastructure

“…this is an executable plan for the modernization and sustainment of the infrastructure and stockpile.” - FY2014 SSMP

4

The 21st Century Nuclear Stockpile  Nuclear Weapons Council’s 3+2 Strategic Vision  Reduce stockpile to five unique weapon systems  Interoperable nuclear explosive packages  Adaptable non-nuclear components

 Stockpile options responsive to future force structure requirements  Smaller yet equally effective nuclear deterrent Three Ballistic Missile Warheads

RV

ICBM

B61-12

IW-1 (W78/W88) IW-2 (W87/W88) IW-3 (W76-1) RB

Interoperable/ Adaptable

Two Air Delivered Systems

SLBM

Interoperable/ Adaptable Cruise Missile Warhead 5

The Cost of Modernization NNSA FY2014 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan

 FY14-FY18 Future Years Nuclear Security Program

Future Years

Beyond Future Years

 % of Directed Stockpile Work  Total Stockpile Costs ~60%  Life Extension Costs ~40%

 FY19-FY38 Beyond Future Years Projection  % of Directed Stockpile Work  Total Stockpile Costs ~70%  Life Extension Costs ~60%

Future Years

Beyond Future Years Directed Stockpile Work

Stockpile modernization is more than just a one-time investment 6

Investing in a 21st Century Deterrent  Reinvigorating U.S. nuclear capabilities  Infrastructure sustainment  Experienced weaponeers

 Safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent  Enhanced surety for all systems  Enhanced long-term sustainability

 Reinforce commitment to a 21st century nuclear deterrent  Smaller, yet effective nuclear stockpile  Increased adaptability to changing policy needs

There is a need for a consensus in an era of fiscal challenges  The cost to modernize is not trivial  Stockpile modernization is not a one time investment but rather a long term commitment to sustaining a U.S. nuclear deterrent 7