Analysis of NEDO Inside Products Survey 2013
Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects Analysis of NEDO Inside Products Survey 2013 Mitsuru Takeshita, Yoshiko Yurugi, Masaru Yamashita, Sayaka Shishido and Tomonaga Yoshida Evaluation Department NEDO Oct. 18, 2013 Washington, D.C. USA New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization
1
Purpose of this study • To analyze and evaluate cost-effectiveness of NEDO Project • To demonstrate outcome and impact of NEDO Project • To examine NEDO Project Management by case study method and extract Success Factors of Management.
2
Content of Presentation 1. Methodology 2. “NEDO inside Products Analysis” - Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects3. Success Factor Analysis (Case Study) (1) Blu-ray Disk (2) High Performance Furnace (3) Belt ＣＶＴ 4. Common Factors of Success 5. Conclusion
3
追跡調査と情報発信 1. Methodology - NEDO Evaluation System Follow-up evaluation Survey just after comple -tion
Simplified and detailed monitoring 簡易・詳細追跡調査 Post 2 years monitoring
Project period Pre-Project evaluation
Interim evaluation
Feedback Managemen t Guideline/ Check List
Post 4 years monitoring
Post 6 years monitoring
Follow-up monitoring period
Post-Project evaluation
Success factors and lessons
Activity for practical application and commercialization in company
Not-continued/ suspended case study
NEDO Success Stories
Commercialized case study
NEDO inside Products
4
4
2. “NEDO inside Products Analysis” NEDO Injected Cost *$1=100yen Units: million $ Photovoltaic power Wind power Gas turbines Residential HP hot-water supply systems Residential fuel cell Blu-ray Water treatment High-efficiency industrial furnaces Low-emission diesel cars MEMS Fine ceramics Miscellaneous Items Total (70 products)
Single Year R&D cost
-
- Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects Product”Recorded Sales Most recent Expected Future Sales single year Cumulative of (cumulative of 10 (2010) years from 2011) Past 5 years
Cumulative R&D cost
pioneer in market creation
58 4 35
1,735 85 532
15,800 2,600 2,600
46,400 7,300 11,900
219,400 41,100 40,100
12
154
3,400
16,000
38,500
49 12 19
880 61 118
120 5,100 400
300 14,500 1,300
11,600 Strengthening 51,500 global 6,000 competitiveness
11
80
20
400
1,100
6
42
75
570
2,300
18 5
250 123 2,349 6,409
400 100 10,185 40,800
1,200 110 42,820 142,800
Improving 6,700 technology 10,500 across a wide 262,400 range of sectors 691,200
*Products included in “Miscellaneous Items” Robots, waste powered generation, vacuum insulation materials, fluorocarbon destruction, hard disk drives, X-ray and CT diagnosis devices, capacitors for mobile units, insulation materials for electronic materials, etc.
-NEDO inside products are defined as products that incorporate technologies developed through NEDO projects results. - Created based on answers from corporations and publicized data of industry organizations and public organizations. For further insufficient data, complementary calculations were performed by NEDO.
-Only sections (materials, components, products, etc.) involved with the NEDO Project were subject to estimations, and sales of the supply chain, etc. are not included. - Estimations have been made under the assumption that the contribution rate of NEDO is 100%.
5
Issues of “NEDO inside Products Analysis” -Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects-
Issues
Answers
1. Contribution rate of NEDO is 100%?
Nobody measures contribution rate correctly.
2. NEDO project developed core technology?
“NEDO Success Stories” endorse core technology development, leading to increase in credit to NEDO inside Products Analysis . 6
“NEDO Success Stories”
Combination of “NEDO Success Stories” and “NEDO Inside Products” is essential for showing the outcome and impact of Programs and Projects.
Purpose:
1. Illustrating the core technologies of NEDO inside products including their development episode; and 2. Describing the role and contribution of NEDO Management. * Information is provided through the NEDO website and mail delivery system.
14
Newly Added Stories (FY2012) Gas Turbine Fuel Cell (SOFC) Domestic Use Heat Pumps Belt CVT High Performance Furnace Impact Resistance Plastics Plasma Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology Device for Gasoline Vapor Alternative Chlorofluocarbon (CF3I) Distillation Facilities “HｙDiC” Direct Currents Server Center Wind Power “ZEPHYR” Robot “Quince” Wheelchair and Mattress Washing Machines
15
Construction Machinery “ASTACO”
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
NEDO Success Stories FY2008： 9 Stories FY2009：10 Stories FY2010：14 Stories FY2011：13 Stories FY2012：15 Stories Total 61 Stories
8 9 10 11 12 13
7
“NEDO Success Stories” and Success Factor Analysis Interview Coverage: - Development background (social subject, approach to solution) - Outline, function and effect of product - Chronology of development (from during the project to now) - Developed core technology, focus of break-through - Role of NEDO Management - Future prospects
Success Factor Analysis 8
3. Success Factor Analysis (1): Blu-ray Disk Success Factor ① Excellent technical seeds and defined road map. Coincided with the management policies of companies. In 1995, development of blue LED succeeded.
In November 1996, DVD was put on market.
In April 2003, Blu-ray was put on market.
commercialization of long-lived and practical blue LED
Timing that a key component technology was developed.
・ 50 and 60 million units would be sold in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Timing that social needs will be built.
R&D of nanometer controlled optical disk system(FY1998-2002)
NEDO Project
In 2005, BDA started.
In December 2000, BS digital high-vision broadcasting started. (Image data amount increased by a factor of five as compared with the previous amount.)
CD
DVD
Blu-ray Disk
Year put on market
1982
1996
2003
Capacity
0.7 GB (Redbook based)
4.7 GB (single-sided, one layer)
25 GB (single-sided, one layer)
Light source
780 nm IR laser
650 nm red laser
405 nm blue laser
8
Success Factor ② Functioned as a cooperative place for companies. R&D was promoted under the sharing of results and knowledge among companies. - Because of the very challenging setting of subjects and objectives, it was a difficult research trial not allowing a company alone to implement. - For responding to high-vision broadcasting, a concentrated research exceeding a framework of interest of companies was promoted.
Success Story ③ Five basic parameters becoming a world standard was initially established. - The largest factor allowing the technology to be made into product at an early time was the fact that five basic parameters of blu-ray disks were established at the start of the project. Thereby, the policy did not deviate in the whole industry and the industry could promote R&D in a consolidated manner with confidence.
○ Five basic parameters initially established - Disk diameter: 12 cm (same as DVD); - Disk thickness: 1.2 mm (same as DVD); - Wavelength: λ=405nm (Specification of blue LD as a light source) ; - Numerical aperture of lens: NA=0.85; and - Thickness of cover layer: 0.1 mm. 9
3. Success Factor Analysis (2): High Performance Industrial Furnace Success Factor ① Discovery of a phenomenon overthrowing an established combustion theory and its elucidation.
- A high performance industrial furnace developed by NEDO project could realize energy saving and CO2 reduction by 30% and NOx reduction by 50% as compared with conventional types. - As of 2011, the technology is adopted in 1,300 industrial furnace units of the 40,000 domestic industrial furnace units.
NEDO Project “Development of High Performance Industrial Furnace” (FY 1993 – 1999) Higher
Oxygen concentration in air for combustion
Lower
Discovery of new flame region Higher temperature air combustion region
(Higher temperature combustion)
In furnace temperature distribution (image)
Higher temperature flame (Higher temperature combustion) Oxygen concentration 21% (Higher NOX) ＜Flame photograph＞
Temperature
Higher temperature flame region
Temperature of air for Combustion
Presence of local higher temperature flame belt (NOX production area）
Normal combustion region
Conventional combustion
Higher temperature air combustion Oxygen concentration 5% (Ultra low NOX) ＜Flame photograph＞
Combustion air temperature (℃)
Temperature
Unstable combustion region
NOX production[ppm]
Conventional regenerative burner (50% energy saving, but large amount of NOx)
New regenerative burner (30% energy saving, 50% Nox reduction)
Indicating lower temperature and uniform distribution
10 Relation among “Normal Flame Region”, “Higher Temperature Flame Region” and “New Combustion Region”
Success Factor ② Field Test Trial (FY 1998 – 2000) accelerated practical application and dissemination. - Field test that modified the existing 167 industrial furnace units including heating furnaces, heat treatment furnaces and melting furnaces. - Reliability, durability, maintainability and safety were verified.
Success Factor ③ Place where companies could cooperate with each other. All the patents were shared in a consortium. - All the 300 or more patents acquired by individual companies were shared. - As a result, practical application of the high performance industrial furnace was accelerated significantly.
Field test trial in a main steel works of JFE Steel (Kawasaki city).
11
3. Success Factor Analysis(３): Belt ＣＶＴ Pulley プーリ
Efficiency of belt CVT (continuously variable transmission) was enhanced with a 20% increased friction coefficient. Fuel efficiency was improved by 2%. Its sales started in May 2012. 150 thousand or more units have been already sold.
ベルト Belt
NEDO Project “R&D of material surface control technology for a low friction loss and high efficiency driving device”(2002 – 2006)
ベルト Belt CVTGr CVTGr
Tokyo Inst. of 東工大 Technology Iwate 岩手大学 University
Jatco ジヤトコ
Environmental 環境制御 control
岩手大学 Iwate University KOBELCO 神戸製鋼所
KOBELCO 神戸製鋼所
Idemitsu 出光興産 Kosan
Hydraulic 水圧機 equipment 器Gr Gr
MHI Nagasaki 三菱重工長崎 Nabtesco ナブテスコ
KOBELCO 神戸製鋼所 AIST 産総研
岩手大学 University
Turbine タービン bearing 軸受GrGr
MHI Takasago 三菱重工高砂 DAIDO METAL 大同メタル
大同メタル DAIDO METAL
MHI Takasago 三菱重工高砂
Iwate
Advisor Committee (Universities, Companies, etc.)
Evaluation 評価 and 解析Gr analysis Gr
Sliding section 摺動部材料 material
アドバイザー委員会 （大学 企･業等）
Contact control 接触制御
Belt CVT ベルトCVT Belt
Pressing force
Pulley
CVT Cross section
By increasing the friction coefficient μ between pulley and belt, the pressing force acting on the pulley can be reduced. Reduction in friction loss allows enhancement of transmission efficiency.
12
Success Factor ① A challenging research theme, which set an intentionally higher target “Increase the Friction Coefficient by 20%”, was tackled. Success Factor ② An industry-academia collaboration allowed a theory overthrowing a common sense of friction to be demonstrated and its mechanism to be elucidated.
Mirror finished pulley increasing μ by 21%
Success Factor ③ An acceleration fund allowed the prospect of establishing the mass production technology. Surface processing machine “Super Finisher” acquired with an acceleration fund
NISSAN SERENA
NISSAN ALTIMA (Overseas Model)
NISSAN SERENA and NISSAN ALTIMA (Overseas Model) carrying a new product 13 CVT8
4. Common Success Factors 1. Excellent Technical Seeds - There are excellent technical seeds as compared with domestic and foreign competitive technologies. - Higher objectives are set for practical application.
2. Synergy Effect - On the academia side, a point of view that assists the subject resolution efforts by a company is important. In particular, an elucidation of mechanism is helpful. - On the industry side, a system of competition and collaboration allowing cooperation while providing expertise and know-how is worked out.
3. Coordination with Business Division - A company with a gap between the R&D division and the business division might not be able to put results into practical application. The business division should provide commitment to realizing results from the beginning of the project. A process including prototype fabrication should be completed during the project period. - There is a coincidence with the management policies of the company. 15
14
5. Conclusion • Combination of “NEDO Success Stories” and “NEDO inside Products” is essential for showing outcome and impact of Programs and Projects and is a new approach to costeffectiveness analysis. • “NEDO Success Stories” give many pieces of valuable advice for Program and Project management. 15
1
Purpose of this study • To analyze and evaluate cost-effectiveness of NEDO Project • To demonstrate outcome and impact of NEDO Project • To examine NEDO Project Management by case study method and extract Success Factors of Management.
2
Content of Presentation 1. Methodology 2. “NEDO inside Products Analysis” - Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects3. Success Factor Analysis (Case Study) (1) Blu-ray Disk (2) High Performance Furnace (3) Belt ＣＶＴ 4. Common Factors of Success 5. Conclusion
3
追跡調査と情報発信 1. Methodology - NEDO Evaluation System Follow-up evaluation Survey just after comple -tion
Simplified and detailed monitoring 簡易・詳細追跡調査 Post 2 years monitoring
Project period Pre-Project evaluation
Interim evaluation
Feedback Managemen t Guideline/ Check List
Post 4 years monitoring
Post 6 years monitoring
Follow-up monitoring period
Post-Project evaluation
Success factors and lessons
Activity for practical application and commercialization in company
Not-continued/ suspended case study
NEDO Success Stories
Commercialized case study
NEDO inside Products
4
4
2. “NEDO inside Products Analysis” NEDO Injected Cost *$1=100yen Units: million $ Photovoltaic power Wind power Gas turbines Residential HP hot-water supply systems Residential fuel cell Blu-ray Water treatment High-efficiency industrial furnaces Low-emission diesel cars MEMS Fine ceramics Miscellaneous Items Total (70 products)
Single Year R&D cost
-
- Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects Product”Recorded Sales Most recent Expected Future Sales single year Cumulative of (cumulative of 10 (2010) years from 2011) Past 5 years
Cumulative R&D cost
pioneer in market creation
58 4 35
1,735 85 532
15,800 2,600 2,600
46,400 7,300 11,900
219,400 41,100 40,100
12
154
3,400
16,000
38,500
49 12 19
880 61 118
120 5,100 400
300 14,500 1,300
11,600 Strengthening 51,500 global 6,000 competitiveness
11
80
20
400
1,100
6
42
75
570
2,300
18 5
250 123 2,349 6,409
400 100 10,185 40,800
1,200 110 42,820 142,800
Improving 6,700 technology 10,500 across a wide 262,400 range of sectors 691,200
*Products included in “Miscellaneous Items” Robots, waste powered generation, vacuum insulation materials, fluorocarbon destruction, hard disk drives, X-ray and CT diagnosis devices, capacitors for mobile units, insulation materials for electronic materials, etc.
-NEDO inside products are defined as products that incorporate technologies developed through NEDO projects results. - Created based on answers from corporations and publicized data of industry organizations and public organizations. For further insufficient data, complementary calculations were performed by NEDO.
-Only sections (materials, components, products, etc.) involved with the NEDO Project were subject to estimations, and sales of the supply chain, etc. are not included. - Estimations have been made under the assumption that the contribution rate of NEDO is 100%.
5
Issues of “NEDO inside Products Analysis” -Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects-
Issues
Answers
1. Contribution rate of NEDO is 100%?
Nobody measures contribution rate correctly.
2. NEDO project developed core technology?
“NEDO Success Stories” endorse core technology development, leading to increase in credit to NEDO inside Products Analysis . 6
“NEDO Success Stories”
Combination of “NEDO Success Stories” and “NEDO Inside Products” is essential for showing the outcome and impact of Programs and Projects.
Purpose:
1. Illustrating the core technologies of NEDO inside products including their development episode; and 2. Describing the role and contribution of NEDO Management. * Information is provided through the NEDO website and mail delivery system.
14
Newly Added Stories (FY2012) Gas Turbine Fuel Cell (SOFC) Domestic Use Heat Pumps Belt CVT High Performance Furnace Impact Resistance Plastics Plasma Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology Device for Gasoline Vapor Alternative Chlorofluocarbon (CF3I) Distillation Facilities “HｙDiC” Direct Currents Server Center Wind Power “ZEPHYR” Robot “Quince” Wheelchair and Mattress Washing Machines
15
Construction Machinery “ASTACO”
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
NEDO Success Stories FY2008： 9 Stories FY2009：10 Stories FY2010：14 Stories FY2011：13 Stories FY2012：15 Stories Total 61 Stories
8 9 10 11 12 13
7
“NEDO Success Stories” and Success Factor Analysis Interview Coverage: - Development background (social subject, approach to solution) - Outline, function and effect of product - Chronology of development (from during the project to now) - Developed core technology, focus of break-through - Role of NEDO Management - Future prospects
Success Factor Analysis 8
3. Success Factor Analysis (1): Blu-ray Disk Success Factor ① Excellent technical seeds and defined road map. Coincided with the management policies of companies. In 1995, development of blue LED succeeded.
In November 1996, DVD was put on market.
In April 2003, Blu-ray was put on market.
commercialization of long-lived and practical blue LED
Timing that a key component technology was developed.
・ 50 and 60 million units would be sold in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Timing that social needs will be built.
R&D of nanometer controlled optical disk system(FY1998-2002)
NEDO Project
In 2005, BDA started.
In December 2000, BS digital high-vision broadcasting started. (Image data amount increased by a factor of five as compared with the previous amount.)
CD
DVD
Blu-ray Disk
Year put on market
1982
1996
2003
Capacity
0.7 GB (Redbook based)
4.7 GB (single-sided, one layer)
25 GB (single-sided, one layer)
Light source
780 nm IR laser
650 nm red laser
405 nm blue laser
8
Success Factor ② Functioned as a cooperative place for companies. R&D was promoted under the sharing of results and knowledge among companies. - Because of the very challenging setting of subjects and objectives, it was a difficult research trial not allowing a company alone to implement. - For responding to high-vision broadcasting, a concentrated research exceeding a framework of interest of companies was promoted.
Success Story ③ Five basic parameters becoming a world standard was initially established. - The largest factor allowing the technology to be made into product at an early time was the fact that five basic parameters of blu-ray disks were established at the start of the project. Thereby, the policy did not deviate in the whole industry and the industry could promote R&D in a consolidated manner with confidence.
○ Five basic parameters initially established - Disk diameter: 12 cm (same as DVD); - Disk thickness: 1.2 mm (same as DVD); - Wavelength: λ=405nm (Specification of blue LD as a light source) ; - Numerical aperture of lens: NA=0.85; and - Thickness of cover layer: 0.1 mm. 9
3. Success Factor Analysis (2): High Performance Industrial Furnace Success Factor ① Discovery of a phenomenon overthrowing an established combustion theory and its elucidation.
- A high performance industrial furnace developed by NEDO project could realize energy saving and CO2 reduction by 30% and NOx reduction by 50% as compared with conventional types. - As of 2011, the technology is adopted in 1,300 industrial furnace units of the 40,000 domestic industrial furnace units.
NEDO Project “Development of High Performance Industrial Furnace” (FY 1993 – 1999) Higher
Oxygen concentration in air for combustion
Lower
Discovery of new flame region Higher temperature air combustion region
(Higher temperature combustion)
In furnace temperature distribution (image)
Higher temperature flame (Higher temperature combustion) Oxygen concentration 21% (Higher NOX) ＜Flame photograph＞
Temperature
Higher temperature flame region
Temperature of air for Combustion
Presence of local higher temperature flame belt (NOX production area）
Normal combustion region
Conventional combustion
Higher temperature air combustion Oxygen concentration 5% (Ultra low NOX) ＜Flame photograph＞
Combustion air temperature (℃)
Temperature
Unstable combustion region
NOX production[ppm]
Conventional regenerative burner (50% energy saving, but large amount of NOx)
New regenerative burner (30% energy saving, 50% Nox reduction)
Indicating lower temperature and uniform distribution
10 Relation among “Normal Flame Region”, “Higher Temperature Flame Region” and “New Combustion Region”
Success Factor ② Field Test Trial (FY 1998 – 2000) accelerated practical application and dissemination. - Field test that modified the existing 167 industrial furnace units including heating furnaces, heat treatment furnaces and melting furnaces. - Reliability, durability, maintainability and safety were verified.
Success Factor ③ Place where companies could cooperate with each other. All the patents were shared in a consortium. - All the 300 or more patents acquired by individual companies were shared. - As a result, practical application of the high performance industrial furnace was accelerated significantly.
Field test trial in a main steel works of JFE Steel (Kawasaki city).
11
3. Success Factor Analysis(３): Belt ＣＶＴ Pulley プーリ
Efficiency of belt CVT (continuously variable transmission) was enhanced with a 20% increased friction coefficient. Fuel efficiency was improved by 2%. Its sales started in May 2012. 150 thousand or more units have been already sold.
ベルト Belt
NEDO Project “R&D of material surface control technology for a low friction loss and high efficiency driving device”(2002 – 2006)
ベルト Belt CVTGr CVTGr
Tokyo Inst. of 東工大 Technology Iwate 岩手大学 University
Jatco ジヤトコ
Environmental 環境制御 control
岩手大学 Iwate University KOBELCO 神戸製鋼所
KOBELCO 神戸製鋼所
Idemitsu 出光興産 Kosan
Hydraulic 水圧機 equipment 器Gr Gr
MHI Nagasaki 三菱重工長崎 Nabtesco ナブテスコ
KOBELCO 神戸製鋼所 AIST 産総研
岩手大学 University
Turbine タービン bearing 軸受GrGr
MHI Takasago 三菱重工高砂 DAIDO METAL 大同メタル
大同メタル DAIDO METAL
MHI Takasago 三菱重工高砂
Iwate
Advisor Committee (Universities, Companies, etc.)
Evaluation 評価 and 解析Gr analysis Gr
Sliding section 摺動部材料 material
アドバイザー委員会 （大学 企･業等）
Contact control 接触制御
Belt CVT ベルトCVT Belt
Pressing force
Pulley
CVT Cross section
By increasing the friction coefficient μ between pulley and belt, the pressing force acting on the pulley can be reduced. Reduction in friction loss allows enhancement of transmission efficiency.
12
Success Factor ① A challenging research theme, which set an intentionally higher target “Increase the Friction Coefficient by 20%”, was tackled. Success Factor ② An industry-academia collaboration allowed a theory overthrowing a common sense of friction to be demonstrated and its mechanism to be elucidated.
Mirror finished pulley increasing μ by 21%
Success Factor ③ An acceleration fund allowed the prospect of establishing the mass production technology. Surface processing machine “Super Finisher” acquired with an acceleration fund
NISSAN SERENA
NISSAN ALTIMA (Overseas Model)
NISSAN SERENA and NISSAN ALTIMA (Overseas Model) carrying a new product 13 CVT8
4. Common Success Factors 1. Excellent Technical Seeds - There are excellent technical seeds as compared with domestic and foreign competitive technologies. - Higher objectives are set for practical application.
2. Synergy Effect - On the academia side, a point of view that assists the subject resolution efforts by a company is important. In particular, an elucidation of mechanism is helpful. - On the industry side, a system of competition and collaboration allowing cooperation while providing expertise and know-how is worked out.
3. Coordination with Business Division - A company with a gap between the R&D division and the business division might not be able to put results into practical application. The business division should provide commitment to realizing results from the beginning of the project. A process including prototype fabrication should be completed during the project period. - There is a coincidence with the management policies of the company. 15
14
5. Conclusion • Combination of “NEDO Success Stories” and “NEDO inside Products” is essential for showing outcome and impact of Programs and Projects and is a new approach to costeffectiveness analysis. • “NEDO Success Stories” give many pieces of valuable advice for Program and Project management. 15
