AP (Thailand)
AP (Thailand) Outperform (17E TP Bt7.80)
Earnings Review
Close Bt7.65
Property Development May 15, 2017
Beat forecast/Below forecast /In line
1Q17 net profit rose 20.6% YoY but decreased 56.6% QoQ Results date: May 12, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.002
1.134
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.2%
‐2.1%
Reuters / Bloomberg
AP.BK/AP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,145.90
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
24.00/694.00 30.00/23.90
52 week High / Low (Bt)
8.05/5.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
11,740.00
NVDR (%)
9.79
Estimated free float (%)
68.46
Beta
0.85
URL
www.apthai.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected]
Switch to Outperform with the 2017E TP at Bt7.8 We switch to an Outperform rating with the 17E TP at Bt7.8. We expect 2Q17E net profit to be maintained QoQ as there are completed condos from both AP and JVs that will continue to be transferred in the period. The near‐term catalyst to support the share price will be the success of the newly‐launched JV condo projects, which are planned for launch in the third week of this month. 1Q17 net profit rose 20.6% YoY but decreased 56.6% QoQ AP posted 1Q17 net profit at Bt549mn (+20.6% YoY, ‐56.6% QoQ), 8% above our estimate, mainly due to lower‐than‐expected SG&A. 1Q17 transfers were in line at Bt4bn (+0.1% YoY, ‐42.8% QoQ). The average GPM was in line at 31.2%. The SG&A expense‐to‐revenue ratio was 21.8% (our estimate was 23.5%). The shared gain from JVs was Bt213mn, better than our estimate at Bt200mn. Expect 2Q17E to be maintained QoQ We expect 2Q17E net profit to be close to 1Q17 net profit as completed condo backlog from both AP worth around Bt2.1bn and JVs worth Bt2.5bn (100% basis), along with low‐rise backlog of Bt3bn, will continue to be transferred in the period. 2Q17 plan to launch big condo projects In 2Q17, AP plans to launch two big JV condo projects worth Bt14bn, with expected take‐up rates at the average of 35% to 40% for the first launch periods, along with two low‐rise projects worth Bt1.65bn. Maintain 2017E net profit 1Q17 net profit was 18% of our 2017E net profit, which we maintain. We expect growth of 12.3% YoY backed by higher transfers of Bt21.8bn (+11.4% YoY) and shared gained from JVs, which we expect to contribute Bt500mn (+35.1% YoY) in 2017E. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 23,149 2,615 0.83 18.1 0.83 18.3 0.38 5.04 2014 9.2 9.2 10.3 1.5 5.0 16.5 89.9
2015 22,079 2,623 0.83 0.3 0.79 (4.9) 0.30 5.61 2015 9.2 9.7 10.3 1.4 3.9 14.9 80.8
2016 20,253 2,703 0.86 3.0 0.83 5.4 0.30 6.17 2016 8.9 9.2 12.2 1.2 3.9 13.9 70.3
66 (0) 2624‐6248
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
2017E 22,439 3,034 0.96 12.3 0.96 15.8 0.32 6.83 2017E 7.9 7.9 10.1 1.1 4.2 14.1 50.7
2018E 24,077 3,502 1.11 15.4 1.11 15.4 0.37 7.62 2018E 6.9 6.9 9.2 1.0 4.8 14.6 41.7
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec
1Q16
4Q16
1Q17
% YoY
% QoQ
2017E
% YoY
Revenue from project sales Total revenue Gross profit
4,040 4,172 1,422
7,078 7,203 2,458
4,046 4,200 1,376
0.1 0.7 (3.3)
(42.8) (41.7) (44.0)
21,892 22,439 7,547
11.4 10.8 8.4
% of 2017E 18.5 18.7 18.2
EBITDA
654
1,043
487
(25.6)
(53.3)
3,467
12.5
14.0
Interest expense
(58)
(60)
(53)
(7.8)
(11.6)
(205)
8.3
26.1
Other income
12
23
12
5.1
(44.9)
66
(20.5)
18.9
(125)
(201)
(85)
(31.7)
(57.5)
(694)
12.1
12.3
Other extraordinary Items
47
(18)
0
(100.0)
(100.0)
0
(100)
N.M.
Gn (Ls) from affiliates
(48)
510
213
(542.9)
(58.2)
501
35.1
18.1
Net profit (loss)
455
1,265
549
20.6
(56.6)
3,034
12.3
18.1
Core net profit (loss)
418
1,280
549
31.4
(57.1)
3,034
15.8
18.1
Reported EPS (THB)
0.14
0.40
0.17
20.6
(56.6)
0.96
12.3
18.1
Core EPS (THB)
0.13
0.41
0.17
31.4
(57.1)
0.96
15.8
18.1
Income tax
Gross margin – project sales (%)
32.2
33.2
31.2
32.2
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
34.1
34.1
32.8
33.6
EBITDA margin (%)
15.7
14.5
11.6
15.4
Net margin (%)
10.9
17.6
13.1
13.5
Current ratio (x)
4.0
3.4
3.2
3.9
Interest coverage (x)
11.0
17.1
8.9
16.7
Debt / equity (x)
1.1
0.9
1.0
0.7
BVPS (Bt)
5.76
6.17
6.35
6.83
ROE (%)
14.1
14.4
14.2
14.1
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Presales
Figure 3: AP’s backlog on Apr 30, 17
Btmn 30,000
2019E 1,320
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
2018E 2,156 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
‐
Low rise
2017E 5,366
2015 2016
5,000
Total Backlog Bt8,842mn
High rise
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 4: JVs’ backlog (100%) on Apr 30, 17
2017E 3,060 2019E 6,376
JV's Condo Backlog Bt17,217mn 2018E 7,781
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin ‐ residential (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2014 23,149 (15,304) 7,845 (4,140) 3,725 84 3,641 (344) 159 3,242 (627) 0 2 (66) 2,615 0.83 0.83 2,613 0.83 0.38
2015 22,079 (14,545) 7,534 (3,969) 3,715 67 3,648 (280) 166 3,356 (733) 0 172 (207) 2,623 0.83 0.83 2,486 0.79 0.30
2014 463 96 31,673 770 1,503 35,564 4,431 10,274 19,715 3,146 15,848 35,564
2018E 24,077 (16,038) 8,039 (4,446) 3,703 52 3,651 (199) 59 4,248 (746) 0 0 777 3,502 1.11 1.11 3,502 1.11 0.37
2016 1,087 40 30,743 774 1,249 37,790 6,441 8,300 18,366 3,146 19,424 37,790
2017E 327 90 29,589 782 1,226 36,689 4,450 6,774 15,206 3,146 21,483 36,689
2018E 100 97 30,357 789 1,316 38,350 4,166 5,924 14,366 3,146 23,984 38,350
2016 2,703 (910) 54 (2,243) (397) (1,002) 866 (136) 2,142 0 (944) 0 1,199 666 664 0.21
2017E 3,034 (496) 55 1,382 3,975 (800) (3) (803) (3,517) 0 (946) 531 (3,932) (759) 3,925 1.25
2018E 3,502 (771) 52 (613) 2,170 (1,050) 0 (1,050) (1,134) 0 (1,001) 788 (1,347) (227) 2,120 0.67
2016 (8.3) (17.1) 3.0 34.4 15.2 14.9 13.3 12.9 18.6
2017E 10.8 12.5 12.3 33.6 15.4 15.2 13.5 13.5 21.5
2018E 7.3 6.8 15.4 33.4 15.4 15.2 14.5 14.5 21.5
2015 2,623 (252) 67 (2,907) (468) (1,051) 2,017 966 278 0 (818) 0 (540) (42) 650 0.21
2014 15.8 24.5 18.1 33.9 16.1 15.7 11.3 11.3 19.3
2017E 22,439 (14,892) 7,547 (4,201) 3,467 55 3,412 (205) 66 3,728 (694) 0 0 501 3,034 0.96 0.96 3,034 0.96 0.32
2015 421 72 31,938 748 850 36,147 3,980 10,699 18,493 3,146 17,654 36,147
2014 2,615 (181) 84 (1,563) 956 (433) 552 119 (729) 0 (772) 0 (1,501) (426) 1,280 0.41
2016 20,253 (13,292) 6,961 (4,012) 3,082 54 3,028 (189) 86 3,321 (619) 0 105 371 2,703 0.86 0.86 2,620 0.83 0.30
2015 (4.6) (0.3) 0.3 34.1 16.8 16.5 11.9 11.3 21.8
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
Earnings Review
Close Bt7.65
Property Development May 15, 2017
Beat forecast/Below forecast /In line
1Q17 net profit rose 20.6% YoY but decreased 56.6% QoQ Results date: May 12, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.002
1.134
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.2%
‐2.1%
Reuters / Bloomberg
AP.BK/AP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,145.90
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
24.00/694.00 30.00/23.90
52 week High / Low (Bt)
8.05/5.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
11,740.00
NVDR (%)
9.79
Estimated free float (%)
68.46
Beta
0.85
URL
www.apthai.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected]
Switch to Outperform with the 2017E TP at Bt7.8 We switch to an Outperform rating with the 17E TP at Bt7.8. We expect 2Q17E net profit to be maintained QoQ as there are completed condos from both AP and JVs that will continue to be transferred in the period. The near‐term catalyst to support the share price will be the success of the newly‐launched JV condo projects, which are planned for launch in the third week of this month. 1Q17 net profit rose 20.6% YoY but decreased 56.6% QoQ AP posted 1Q17 net profit at Bt549mn (+20.6% YoY, ‐56.6% QoQ), 8% above our estimate, mainly due to lower‐than‐expected SG&A. 1Q17 transfers were in line at Bt4bn (+0.1% YoY, ‐42.8% QoQ). The average GPM was in line at 31.2%. The SG&A expense‐to‐revenue ratio was 21.8% (our estimate was 23.5%). The shared gain from JVs was Bt213mn, better than our estimate at Bt200mn. Expect 2Q17E to be maintained QoQ We expect 2Q17E net profit to be close to 1Q17 net profit as completed condo backlog from both AP worth around Bt2.1bn and JVs worth Bt2.5bn (100% basis), along with low‐rise backlog of Bt3bn, will continue to be transferred in the period. 2Q17 plan to launch big condo projects In 2Q17, AP plans to launch two big JV condo projects worth Bt14bn, with expected take‐up rates at the average of 35% to 40% for the first launch periods, along with two low‐rise projects worth Bt1.65bn. Maintain 2017E net profit 1Q17 net profit was 18% of our 2017E net profit, which we maintain. We expect growth of 12.3% YoY backed by higher transfers of Bt21.8bn (+11.4% YoY) and shared gained from JVs, which we expect to contribute Bt500mn (+35.1% YoY) in 2017E. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 23,149 2,615 0.83 18.1 0.83 18.3 0.38 5.04 2014 9.2 9.2 10.3 1.5 5.0 16.5 89.9
2015 22,079 2,623 0.83 0.3 0.79 (4.9) 0.30 5.61 2015 9.2 9.7 10.3 1.4 3.9 14.9 80.8
2016 20,253 2,703 0.86 3.0 0.83 5.4 0.30 6.17 2016 8.9 9.2 12.2 1.2 3.9 13.9 70.3
66 (0) 2624‐6248
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
2017E 22,439 3,034 0.96 12.3 0.96 15.8 0.32 6.83 2017E 7.9 7.9 10.1 1.1 4.2 14.1 50.7
2018E 24,077 3,502 1.11 15.4 1.11 15.4 0.37 7.62 2018E 6.9 6.9 9.2 1.0 4.8 14.6 41.7
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec
1Q16
4Q16
1Q17
% YoY
% QoQ
2017E
% YoY
Revenue from project sales Total revenue Gross profit
4,040 4,172 1,422
7,078 7,203 2,458
4,046 4,200 1,376
0.1 0.7 (3.3)
(42.8) (41.7) (44.0)
21,892 22,439 7,547
11.4 10.8 8.4
% of 2017E 18.5 18.7 18.2
EBITDA
654
1,043
487
(25.6)
(53.3)
3,467
12.5
14.0
Interest expense
(58)
(60)
(53)
(7.8)
(11.6)
(205)
8.3
26.1
Other income
12
23
12
5.1
(44.9)
66
(20.5)
18.9
(125)
(201)
(85)
(31.7)
(57.5)
(694)
12.1
12.3
Other extraordinary Items
47
(18)
0
(100.0)
(100.0)
0
(100)
N.M.
Gn (Ls) from affiliates
(48)
510
213
(542.9)
(58.2)
501
35.1
18.1
Net profit (loss)
455
1,265
549
20.6
(56.6)
3,034
12.3
18.1
Core net profit (loss)
418
1,280
549
31.4
(57.1)
3,034
15.8
18.1
Reported EPS (THB)
0.14
0.40
0.17
20.6
(56.6)
0.96
12.3
18.1
Core EPS (THB)
0.13
0.41
0.17
31.4
(57.1)
0.96
15.8
18.1
Income tax
Gross margin – project sales (%)
32.2
33.2
31.2
32.2
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
34.1
34.1
32.8
33.6
EBITDA margin (%)
15.7
14.5
11.6
15.4
Net margin (%)
10.9
17.6
13.1
13.5
Current ratio (x)
4.0
3.4
3.2
3.9
Interest coverage (x)
11.0
17.1
8.9
16.7
Debt / equity (x)
1.1
0.9
1.0
0.7
BVPS (Bt)
5.76
6.17
6.35
6.83
ROE (%)
14.1
14.4
14.2
14.1
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Presales
Figure 3: AP’s backlog on Apr 30, 17
Btmn 30,000
2019E 1,320
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
2018E 2,156 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
‐
Low rise
2017E 5,366
2015 2016
5,000
Total Backlog Bt8,842mn
High rise
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 4: JVs’ backlog (100%) on Apr 30, 17
2017E 3,060 2019E 6,376
JV's Condo Backlog Bt17,217mn 2018E 7,781
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
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FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin ‐ residential (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2014 23,149 (15,304) 7,845 (4,140) 3,725 84 3,641 (344) 159 3,242 (627) 0 2 (66) 2,615 0.83 0.83 2,613 0.83 0.38
2015 22,079 (14,545) 7,534 (3,969) 3,715 67 3,648 (280) 166 3,356 (733) 0 172 (207) 2,623 0.83 0.83 2,486 0.79 0.30
2014 463 96 31,673 770 1,503 35,564 4,431 10,274 19,715 3,146 15,848 35,564
2018E 24,077 (16,038) 8,039 (4,446) 3,703 52 3,651 (199) 59 4,248 (746) 0 0 777 3,502 1.11 1.11 3,502 1.11 0.37
2016 1,087 40 30,743 774 1,249 37,790 6,441 8,300 18,366 3,146 19,424 37,790
2017E 327 90 29,589 782 1,226 36,689 4,450 6,774 15,206 3,146 21,483 36,689
2018E 100 97 30,357 789 1,316 38,350 4,166 5,924 14,366 3,146 23,984 38,350
2016 2,703 (910) 54 (2,243) (397) (1,002) 866 (136) 2,142 0 (944) 0 1,199 666 664 0.21
2017E 3,034 (496) 55 1,382 3,975 (800) (3) (803) (3,517) 0 (946) 531 (3,932) (759) 3,925 1.25
2018E 3,502 (771) 52 (613) 2,170 (1,050) 0 (1,050) (1,134) 0 (1,001) 788 (1,347) (227) 2,120 0.67
2016 (8.3) (17.1) 3.0 34.4 15.2 14.9 13.3 12.9 18.6
2017E 10.8 12.5 12.3 33.6 15.4 15.2 13.5 13.5 21.5
2018E 7.3 6.8 15.4 33.4 15.4 15.2 14.5 14.5 21.5
2015 2,623 (252) 67 (2,907) (468) (1,051) 2,017 966 278 0 (818) 0 (540) (42) 650 0.21
2014 15.8 24.5 18.1 33.9 16.1 15.7 11.3 11.3 19.3
2017E 22,439 (14,892) 7,547 (4,201) 3,467 55 3,412 (205) 66 3,728 (694) 0 0 501 3,034 0.96 0.96 3,034 0.96 0.32
2015 421 72 31,938 748 850 36,147 3,980 10,699 18,493 3,146 17,654 36,147
2014 2,615 (181) 84 (1,563) 956 (433) 552 119 (729) 0 (772) 0 (1,501) (426) 1,280 0.41
2016 20,253 (13,292) 6,961 (4,012) 3,082 54 3,028 (189) 86 3,321 (619) 0 105 371 2,703 0.86 0.86 2,620 0.83 0.30
2015 (4.6) (0.3) 0.3 34.1 16.8 16.5 11.9 11.3 21.8
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Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
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KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
