Global Research Result Update Equity – Saudi Arabia Cement Sector 16 June, 2011
BUY
Arabian Cement Company (ACC)
Target Price SAR55.0
Market Data Bloomberg Code: Reuters Code: CMP (15 June 2011): O/S (mn) Market Cap (SAR mn): Market Cap (USD mn): P/E 2011e (x): P/Bv 2011e (x):
ARCCO AB 3010.SE SAR 46.5 80.0 3,720 992 8.6 1.3
Price Performance 1-Yr High (SAR): Low (SAR): Average Volume: (000)
Absolute (%) Relative (%)
46.8 25.2 288.2 1m 5.4 7.4
3m 69.2 58.9
12m 24.2 17.3
Price Volume Performance 3,000
50
2,500
40
2,000
30
1,500
20
1,000
10
500
0
Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11
0
Volume ('000)
ARCCO (SAR)
Net profit increase by 42.0%YoY in 1Q11 Cement dispatches increase by 14.5%YoY Revenue increase by 14.1%YoY Fair value upgraded; Recommendation unchanged
Significant jump in 1Q11 profitability Arabian Cement Company posted a net profit of SAR116.6mn which was considerably higher than our estimate of SAR70.2mn. On a YoY basis the net profit grew by 42.0% in 1Q11 due to lower costs of production and higher revenues. In addition, 1Q10 results suffered due to major maintenance shutdowns.
Sales benefit from increased construction activity Sales revenue witnessed a healthy growth of 14.1%YoY as the company benefited from the increase in construction activity in the Western region of Saudi Arabia which includes major urban centers of Jeddah, Makkah and Madina. Total cement dispatches of the company increased by 14.2%YoY to 992,000 tons in 1Q11.
Realization prices stabilize at current levels Realization prices appear to have stabilized with a slight decline of 0.4%YoY to SAR232.0 per ton in 1Q11 reflecting the improvement in demand. The cement realization prices declined by 6.1% in 2010YoY as competition intensified. We expect the realization prices for 2011 to be SAR230.3 per ton which is a marginal decline of 1.0%YoY.
Revision in estimates We have increased our sales revenue forecast by 16.7% to SAR935mn for 2011 in light of the increase in cement dispatches during 1Q11. We believe the strong growth in sales will continue throughout 2011. On the other hand we have decreased our 2011 estimate of cost of sales by 4.8%. The company has managed to induce significant cost savings after the major maintenance with cost of sales per ton coming down to SAR97 per ton in 1Q11. Consequently, we have increased our net profit estimate for 2011 by 53.4% to SAR431mn. Arabian Cement Company 2011e SAR mn Earlier Estimates Revised estimates Revenues 801 935 Cost of sales (464) (442) Operating Profit 289 446 Net Profit 281 431
Change % 16.7% -4.8% 54.4% 53.4%
Source: Global Research
Source: Zawya
Valuation update Faisal Hasan, CFA Head of Research
[email protected] Tel.: (965) 22951270 Umar Faruqui Financial Analyst
[email protected] Tel.: (965) 22951438 Global Investment House www.globalinv.net
We have upgraded our fair value to SAR55.0/share from SAR33.8/share in light of the revised forecasts. The demand outlook has further improved with the announcement of the 21 Saudi Royal orders which amongst other things envisages building of 500,000 housing units. We maintain our BUY recommendation as the stock offers a potential upside of 18.3%. The stock is trading at attractive valuations despite the upsurge in stock by 52.4% since our last BUY recommendation on 21 March 2011. Arabian cement 2011e P/E is at a 26.4% discount to our Saudi cement sector universe average 2011e P/E of 11.7x and 30.0% discount to the regional emerging markets 2011e P/E of 12.3x. The company is also cheap on an EV/ton basis with its 2011e EV/ton at a 34.2% discount to our Saudi cement sector universe 2011e EV/ton of SAR328 per ton.
Global Research – Saudi Arabia
Arabian Cement Company (ACC)
Financial Statements
Income Statement
(SAR mn) Revenue Revenue growth Cost of sales Gross Profit SG&A Operating Profit Financial charges Other income Profit Before Taxation Zakat and minority interest Net Profit Net profit growth
Balance Sheet
Cash and Bank Balance Receivables Inventories Other Current assets Total Current Assets
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012e
2013e
2014e
721 0.0% (342) 379 (52) 327 (5) (1) 333 (9) 324 -17.3%
737 2.2% (347) 390 (146) 244 (10) (53) 190 (18) 172 -46.9%
745 1.0% (426) 319 (31) 288 (8) (28) 263 (8) 255 48.5%
935 25.6% (442) 493 (47) 446 (34) (2) 446 (16) 431 68.6%
1,084 16.0% (580) 505 (54) 450 (31) (3) 460 (16) 444 3.0%
1,100 1.4% (603) 497 (55) 442 (27) (3) 459 (16) 442 -0.3%
1,102 0.2% (626) 476 (55) 421 (25) (3) 445 (16) 430 -2.9%
450 141 110 206 907
66 143 157 45 410
147 159 214 45 565
329 182 240 47 798
524 211 337 50 1,121
794 214 333 52 1,393
1,053 217 341 55 1,666
Long-term investments Deferred expenses and other dues Net fixed assets Total Fixed Assets
316 22 2,273 2,611
300 21 3,099 3,420
254 20 3,316 3,589
266 28 3,316 3,610
280 33 3,293 3,605
294 33 3,268 3,595
308 33 3,240 3,582
Total Assets
3,518
3,830
4,155
4,409
4,727
4,988
5,248
191 158 12 859 36
199 221 23 1,074 36
185 214 27 1,191 36
188 170 16 1,131 38
269 153 17 1,018 40
282 137 17 916 42
294 124 16 825 44
800 542 902 2,263 3,518
800 455 967 2,276 3,830
800 678 967 2,503 4,155
800 1,026 978 2,865 4,409
800 1,388 978 3,230 4,727
800 1,749 978 3,594 4,988
800 2,096 978 3,945 5,248
Accounts payables Current portion of long-term loan Other current liabilities Long-term debt Employee end-of-service benefits Share capital Retained Earnings Other reserves Total Shareholders Equity Total Equity & Liability
486 (119) (185) 182 329
516 (110) (211) 194 524
579 (111) (198) 270 794
557 (111) (187) 259 1,053
Gross margin 52.6% 52.9% 42.8% Operating profit margin 45.3% 33.1% 38.7% Net Profit Margin 44.9% 23.3% 34.3% Return on Average Assets 11.0% 4.7% 6.4% Return on Average Equity 15.8% 7.6% 10.7% EV/ton (USD) 214.3 330.5 349.3 Quick ratio (x) 2.2 0.6 0.8 Debt / Equity (x) 0.45 0.57 0.56 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.1 24.3 18.5 EV/Revenues (x) 4.2 6.4 6.7 FCF Yield -20.5% -15.5% -0.8% EPS (SAR) 4.1 2.2 3.2 Book Value Per Share (SAR) 28.3 28.5 31.3 Market Price (SAR) * 31.1 43.5 34.2 Market Capitalization (SAR mn) 2,488 3,480 2,736 Dividend Yield 12.9% 6.7% 3.0% P/E Ratio (x) 7.7 20.2 10.7 P/BV Ratio (x) 1.1 1.5 1.1 Source: Company Reports & Glob al Research * Market price for 2011 and sub sequent years as per closing prices on June 15, 2011
52.7% 47.7% 46.1% 10.1% 16.0% 215.7 1.5 0.45 10.5 5.0 9.6% 5.4 35.8 46.5 3,720 2.2% 8.6 1.3
46.5% 41.5% 40.9% 9.7% 14.6% 200.8 1.8 0.36 9.5 4.0 10.9% 5.5 40.4 46.5 3,720 2.2% 8.4 1.2
45.2% 40.2% 40.2% 9.1% 13.0% 183.0 2.4 0.29 8.7 3.6 12.6% 5.5 44.9 46.5 3,720 2.2% 8.4 1.0
43.2% 38.2% 39.0% 8.4% 11.4% 166.2 3.1 0.24 8.1 3.3 12.0% 5.4 49.3 46.5 3,720 2.2% 8.7 0.9
Cash Flow
306 (304) 94 95 147
Ratio Analysis
Cash Flow from Operating Activities Cash Flow from Investing Activities Cash Flow from Financing Activities Change in Cash Net Cash at End
June – 2011
231 (799) 902 334 450
448 (983) 137 (399) 66
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Global Research – Saudi Arabia
Arabian Cement Company (ACC)
Disclosure The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure. Disclosure Checklist Company Arabian Cement Company
Recommendation BUY
Bloomberg Ticker ARCCO AB
Reuters Ticker 3010.SE
Price SAR 46.5
Disclosure 1,10
1.
Global Investment House did not receive and will not receive any compensation from the company or anyone else for the preparation of this report. 2. The company being researched holds more than 5% stake in Global Investment House. 3. Global Investment House makes a market in securities issued by this company. 4. Global Investment House acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 5. The author of or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 6. An employee of Global Investment House serves on the board of directors of this company. 7. Within the past year, Global Investment House has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it received fees. 8. Global Investment House has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 9. Global Investment House expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three month. 10. Please see special footnote below for other relevant disclosures. Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions Global Rating Definition STRONG BUY Fair value of the stock is >20% from the current market price BUY Fair value of the stock is between +10% and +20% from the current market price HOLD Fair value of the stock is between +10% and -10% from the current market price SELL Fair value of the stock is < -10% from the current market price
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June - 2011
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