Arabian Cement Company (ACC)

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Global Research Result Update Equity – Saudi Arabia Cement Sector 16th May, 2012

BUY

Arabian Cement Company (ACC)

Target Price SAR66.9

Market Data Bloomberg Code: Reuters Code: th CMP (15 May 2012): O/S (mn) Market Cap (SAR mn): Market Cap (USD mn): P/E 2012e (x): P/Bv 2012e (x):

ARCCO AB 3010.SE SAR55.25 80.0 4,420 1,178 8.3 1.5

Price Performance 1-Yr High (SAR): Low (SAR): Average Volume: (000)

61.00 38.00 342.1 1m 0.9 4.2

Absolute (%) Relative (%)

3m 16.1 11.8

12m 25.3 18.2

Price Volume Performance 3,000

65 60

2,500 55

2,000

   

1Q12 net profit increases by 26%YoY Strong growth in dispatches YoY Slowdown in its Jordanian subsidiary Fair value upgraded; Recommendation upgraded to BUY

ACC profits nearly double on QoQ Arabian Cement Company (ACC) witnessed an impressive 26% increase in 1Q12 net profit to SAR146.1mn as compared to the same period a year ago. The profit rose by astonishing 90.6% on a QoQ basis. The profits are attributable to ACC having the best sales quarter ever due to the positive demand situation in the Kingdom, with huge development plans and increasing construction activity in the highly populated western region.

Increase in production reflected positively In 2011, ACC managed to increase production by 300,000tons in its Rabigh factory. The increase was reflected positively in the 1Q12, and will continue to do so in 2012.Cement dispatches for Arabian for 1Q12 increased by 35% QoQ to 1.166mn tons. Strong growth in cement dispatches reflected in strong growth in sales revenue which increased by 32.6% QoQ to SAR355.1mn. Production on the other hand increased 37% during 1Q12 as compared to the previous quarter to reach 1.171mn tons. Additionally, Gross margins managed to increase 932bps to reach 49.1% on a QoQ basis, while net margins managed to increase 1,252bps to reach 41.2% on a quarterly basis. 1Q12 was a very good quarter for Arabian Cement in terms of production, dispatches, revenues and profits.

50

Slowdown in subsidiary, but promising outlook 45 1,500 40 1,000

35 30

500 25

Volume ('000)

Faisal Hasan, CFA Head of Research [email protected] Tel.: (965) 2295-1270 Turki O. AlYaqout Financial Analyst [email protected] Tel.: (965) 2295-1295 Global Investment House www.globalinv.net

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ACC (SAR)

Qatrana Cement, which is owned 86.7% by ACC started production on April 2011 and has a cement production capacity of 1.8mtpa, producing 386,000tons of clinker and 390,000tons of cement during the period. Unfortunately, ACC was hit by SAR57mn bottom line loss in 2011 which were 51% lower than the expected by ACC due to the slowdown in Jordan’s economy, low cement demand and increased competition. In 1Q12 Qatrana reported a SAR60.9mn in revenues and recorded a SAR15.7mn bottom line loss. Currently Qatrana cement is trying to decrease cost and improve efficiency, by replacing heavy oil to produce cement by coal. Also the company is increasing its marketing schemes by adding new points of sale to improve revenue. Notably the factory in Jordan is located in Southern Jordan, which is an area of close proximity to local markets, seaports, and highways. With an expected real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2012 and 3.0% in 2013, Qatrana Cement is expected to witness higher sales and production in upcoming years, which will benefit ACC tremendously.

Healthy financial base ACC managed to witness a 12.7% increase in equity for 1Q12 to reach SAR3.0bn, in addition to an healthy 8.8% increase in assets. Arabian’s debt/equity ratio is currently at 0.5x in 1Q12 which is considered high as compared to its sector, however it’s expected to decrease to 0.4x in 2012. The company has a healthy current and quick ratio of 1.8x and 1.2x respectively.

Valuation update We have upgraded our fair value to SAR66.9/share from SAR59.3/share after incorporating improved cement demand forecast for 2012-14 in our model. Our recommendation has changed to a BUY. The stock at its current price of SAR55.25/share is trading at a discount of 14.5% to the fair value. Thus, we upgrade our recommendation on the stock to BUY.

Global Research – Saudi Arabia

Arabian Cement Company (ACC)

Financial Statements

Income Statement

(SAR mn) Revenue Revenue growth Cost of sales Gross Profit SG&A Operating Profit Financial charges Other income Profit Before Taxation Zakat and minority interest Net Profit Net profit growth

Balance Sheet

Cash and Bank Balance Receivables Inventories Other Current assets Total Current Assets

2009

2010

2011

2012 (F)

2013(F)

2014 (F)

2015 (F)

737 2.2% (347) 390 (146) 244 (10) (53) 190 (18) 172 -46.9%

745 1.0% (426) 319 (31) 288 (8) (28) 263 (8) 255 48.5%

1,079 44.9% (575) 504 (57) 447 (61) 3 410 (7) 407 59.4%

1,379 27.9% (722) 657 (84) 573 (30) (3) 560 (29) 531 30.3%

1,400 1.5% (741) 659 (85) 574 (27) (3) 565 (29) 536 1.0%

1,464 4.6% (778) 686 (89) 597 (24) (3) 593 (31) 563 5.0%

1,518 3.6% (811) 707 (93) 614 (22) (3) 616 (32) 584 3.7%

66 143 157 45 410

147 159 214 45 565

304 210 309 44 866

249 254 267 46 815

379 269 270 48 967

497 292 286 50 1,125

560 353 310 52 1,275

Long-term investments Deferred expenses and other dues Net fixed assets Total Fixed Assets

300 21 3,099 3,420

254 20 3,316 3,589

312 24 3,245 3,580

328 41 3,223 3,592

344 42 3,199 3,585

361 44 3,172 3,577

379 46 3,142 3,567

Total Assets

3,830

4,155

4,447

4,407

4,551

4,702

4,842

Accounts payables Current portion of long-term loan Other current liabilities Long-term debt Employee end-of-service benefits

199 221 23 1,074 36

185 214 27 1,191 36

190 286 28 1,105 39

163 149 17 994 41

162 134 17 895 43

169 121 18 805 45

174 109 18 725 47

Share capital Retained Earnings Other reserves Total Shareholders Equity Total Equity & Liability

800 455 967 2,276 3,830

800 678 967 2,503 4,155

800 923 1,021 2,795 4,447

800 1,212 978 3,043 4,407

800 1,466 978 3,300 4,551

800 1,707 978 3,544 4,702

800 1,930 978 3,769 4,842

591 (160) (487) (55) 249

642 (118) (393) 131 379

658 (118) (422) 118 497

634 (119) (451) 64 560

Gross margin 52.9% 42.8% 46.7% Operating profit margin 33.1% 38.7% 41.4% Net Profit Margin 23.3% 34.3% 37.8% Return on Average Assets 4.7% 6.4% 9.5% Return on Average Equity 7.6% 10.7% 15.4% EV/ton (USD) 330.5 335.8 323.9 Quick ratio (x) 0.6 0.8 1.1 Debt / Equity (x) 0.57 0.56 0.50 EV/EBITDA (x) 24.3 17.8 11.2 EV/Revenues (x) 6.4 6.4 4.3 FCF Yield -15.5% -0.8% 9.2% EPS (SAR) 2.2 3.2 5.1 Book Value Per Share (SAR) 28.5 31.3 34.9 Market Price (SAR) * 43.5 34.2 44.1 Market Capitalization (SAR mn) 3,480 2,736 3,528 Dividend Yield 6.7% 0.7% 4.5% P/E Ratio (x) 20.2 10.7 8.7 P/BV Ratio (x) 1.5 1.1 1.3 Source: Company Reports & Glob al Research * Market price for 2012 and sub sequent years as per closing prices on May 15th, 2012

47.6% 41.5% 38.5% 12.0% 18.2% 345.7 1.7 0.38 9.5 3.9 10.9% 6.6 38.0 55.3 4,420 5.4% 8.3 1.5

47.1% 41.0% 38.3% 12.0% 16.9% 329.8 2.2 0.31 9.0 3.6 12.0% 6.7 41.3 55.3 4,420 6.3% 8.2 1.3

46.9% 40.8% 38.4% 12.2% 16.4% 315.4 2.7 0.26 8.2 3.3 12.4% 7.0 44.3 55.3 4,420 7.2% 7.9 1.2

46.6% 40.5% 38.5% 12.2% 16.0% 305.2 3.2 0.22 7.6 3.1 11.9% 7.3 47.1 55.3 4,420 8.1% 7.6 1.2

Cash Flow

421 (85) (180) 157 304

Ratio Analysis

Cash Flow from Operating Activities Cash Flow from Investing Activities Cash Flow from Financing Activities Change in Cash Net Cash at End

May - 2012

448 (983) 137 (399) 52

306 (304) 94 95 147

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Global Research – Saudi Arabia

Arabian Cement Company (ACC)

Disclosure The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure. Disclosure Checklist Company Arabian Cement Company

Recommendation BUY

Bloomberg Ticker ARCCO AB

Reuters Ticker 3010.SE

Price SAR55.25

Disclosure 1,10

1.

Global Investment House did not receive and will not receive any compensation from the company or anyone else for the preparation of this report. 2. The company being researched holds more than 5% stake in Global Investment House. 3. Global Investment House makes a market in securities issued by this company. 4. Global Investment House acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 5. The author of or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 6. An employee of Global Investment House serves on the board of directors of this company. 7. Within the past year, Global Investment House has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it received fees. 8. Global Investment House has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 9. Global Investment House expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three month. 10. Please see special footnote below for other relevant disclosures. Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions Global Rating Definition STRONG BUY Fair value of the stock is >20% from the current market price BUY Fair value of the stock is between +10% and +20% from the current market price HOLD Fair value of the stock is between +10% and -10% from the current market price SELL Fair value of the stock is < -10% from the current market price

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May - 2012

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Global Investment House Website: www.globalinv.net Global Tower Sharq, Al-Shuhada Str. Tel. + (965) 2 295 1000 Fax. + (965) 2 295 1005 P.O. Box: 28807 Safat, 13149 Kuwait

Research Faisal Hasan, CFA (965) 2295-1270 [email protected]

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