Bangkok Airways
Bangkok Airways Buy (16E TP Bt26.50)
Company Update
Close Bt21.20 Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Transport & Logistics
November 18, 2015
Bright earnings prospects to continue in 2016E Price Performance (%)
TP lifted to Bt26.50 from revised TP of BDMS; BUY maintained We maintain our BUY call for BA with a revised SOTP‐based target price of Bt26.50, vs. Bt25.00 previously, after revising the TP of BDMS to Bt22 (2016E TP) vs. Bt19 previously (2015E TP). We expect BA’s net profit to grow by 23% YoY in 2016E owing mainly to passenger volume expansion, especially at Samui International Airport. Still focusing on Samui route expansion in 2016E Upon entering the 4Q15 winter season, BA plans to increase flights to many destinations, with a primary focus on Samui, such as Samui‐Phuket and Samui‐Singapore. In 2016E, BA will introduce three new routes consisting of Samui‐Guangzhou, BKK‐Da Nang, and one destination in Myanmar; there will also be flight frequency increases for Samui‐Kuala Lumpur and further increases for Samui‐Singapore. Moreover, with additional codeshare partners and potential fleet upgrades, BA targets passenger volume growth of 17% in 2016E with flat average tick fares, in line with our expectation.
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.992
1.328
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐6.2%
‐25.5%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BA.BK/BA TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,100.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
45.00/1,238.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/2.11
52 week High / Low (Bt)
23.40/19.30
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
4,174.00 1.30
Estimated free float (%)
34.28
Beta
0.54
URL
www.bangkokair.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
‐
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Downside risk to 2016E net profit if FAA downgrades Thai aviation There has been no progress/result after the recent re‐audit by the FAA and EASA of the Thai aviation authorities and THAI in response to the safety standard red flag by the ICAO in Jun‐15. A worst‐case scenario of an FAA downgrade of Thai aviation to Category 2 would likely have a negative impact on passengers from codeshare partners; BA is in discussions with partners on changing the cooperation from codeshare to interline in the event of a downgrade. However, regarding interline cooperation, BA would have to realize booking fees, which may result in 5‐10% downside risk to our earnings projection in 2016E, based on US$6‐ 7/ticket booking fees and the assumption that around 20% of total passengers would likely be impacted. Nevertheless, we maintain our view that the ICAO issue will likely be resolved in 1H16E. 2015E net profit revised up from FX gains We maintain our norm. profit projections in 2015‐16E for BA. However, we revise up net profit in 2015E by 8% to Bt1.9bn owing to realization of FX gains. We expect BA’s net profit in 4Q15E to be soft on a quarterly basis owing to an expected bonus expense increase and deferred tax expenses related to two additional financial lease aircraft that BA will receive in 4Q15E. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 19,876 932 0.59 888 0.56 (6.10) 0.77 4.48 2013 37.73 12.04 4.73 3.65 12.16 166.39
2014 21,033 351 0.17 348 0.17 (70.53) 0.20 12.05 2014 128.04 11.45 1.76 0.94 2.15 cash
2015E 23,554 1,948 0.93 1,694 0.81 387.23 0.40 12.52 2015E 26.28 8.76 1.69 1.90 6.57 10.43
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2016E 27,648 2,083 0.99 2,083 0.99 22.93 0.50 13.01 2016E 21.38 7.51 1.63 2.34 7.77 13.17
2017E 30,703 2,224 1.06 2,224 1.06 6.79 0.53 13.54 2017E 20.02 6.85 1.57 2.50 7.98 11.49
Figure 1: Summary of sum‐of‐the‐parts (SOTP) valuation Company BA’s core business SPF BDMS
BA’s stake (%) 27.50 7.83
Total SOTP‐based valuation
Valuation Method PER of 17x (average PER of AAV and AOT) DCF (WACC 10%) KT ZMICO research target price of Bt22
Value to BA (Bt) 11.60 2.20 12.70 26.50
Source: KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: Expansion plan Figure 3: Network expansion
Source: BA
Figure 4: Advanced bookings Figure 5: BA’s fuel hedging as % of consumption
Source: BA
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables
PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A expense EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully Diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
2012 17,672 (13,165) 4,508 (2,556) 3,897 (1,945) 1,952 (1,868) 802 886 (458) 0 1,046 359 (61) 1,771 1.46 1.46 726 0.60 1.53
2013 19,876 (15,034) 4,842 (3,186) 3,760 (2,103) 1,657 (1,766) 800 691 (140) 0 45 394 (58) 932 0.59 0.59 888 0.56 0.77
2014 21,033 (17,563) 3,470 (2,974) 2,894 (2,398) 496 (1,638) 1,087 (55) (1) 0 3 438 (35) 351 0.17 0.17 348 0.17 0.20
2015E 23,554 (18,574) 4,980 (3,330) 4,137 (2,487) 1,650 (1,647) 1,407 1,410 (172) 254 0 504 (47) 1,948 0.93 0.93 1,694 0.81 0.40
2012 3,725 231 6,379 21,673 32,008 2,932 14,128 24,289 198 7,522 32,008
2013 3,064 228 6,339 20,762 30,393 2,108 12,737 23,201 111 7,080 30,393
2014 13,700 272 7,034 27,573 48,579 1,119 12,235 23,147 123 25,309 48,579
2015E 12,522 335 10,433 28,279 51,570 568 14,696 25,116 171 26,283 51,570
2012 1,771 593 1,863 (1,187) 3,040 342 (364) (22) (69) 13 (655) (711) 2,307 3,018 2.49
2013 932 573 416 (25) 1,897 1,691 (874) 817 (2,247) 845 (2,424) (3,826) (1,112) 2,714 1.72
2014 351 644 (543) (619) (167) 6,286 (17,372) (11,086) (1,460) 12,336 0 10,876 (377) (11,253) (5.36)
2015E 1,948 863 (773) (1,038) 1,000 (3,669) 0 (3,669) 1,909 0 (420) 1,489 (1,179) (2,669) (1.27)
2012 25.3 31.7 (426.3) 25.5 22.1 11.0 10.0 4.1 36.8
2013 12.5 (3.5) (6.1) 24.4 18.9 8.3 4.7 4.5 12.9
2014 5.8 (23.0) (70.5) 16.5 13.8 2.4 1.7 1.7 0.1
2015E 12.0 42.9 387.2 21.1 17.6 7.0 8.3 7.2 9.0
2012 0.69 1.77 1.84
2013 0.68 1.66 2.05
2014 0.35 (0.01) 1.77
2015E 0.37 0.10 2.41
2016E 27,648 (21,831) 5,816 (3,909) 4,938 (3,031) 1,908 (1,730) 1,641 1,818 (212) 0 0 535 (58) 2,083 0.99 0.99 2,083 0.99 0.50
2016E 14,821 394 12,662 28,862 56,738 190 18,230 29,185 229 27,324 56,738
2017E 19,200 437 13,575 29,501 62,714 25 22,443 33,986 291 28,436 62,713
2016E 2,083 1,005 (116) (886) 2,085 (2,095) 0 (2,095) 3,156 0 (847) 2,309 2,300 (10) 0.00
2017E 30,703 (24,433) 6,269 (4,341) 5,364 (3,435) 1,929 (1,814) 1,829 1,944 (226) 0 0 568 (62) 2,224 1.06 1.06 2,224 1.06 0.53
2017E 2,224 1,057 (241) (937) 2,104 (732) 0 (732) 4,048 0 (1,041) 3,007 4,379 1,372 0.65
2016E 17.4 19.4 22.9 21.0 17.9 6.9 7.5 7.5 9.0
2017E 11.0 8.6 6.8 20.4 17.5 6.3 7.2 7.2 9.0
2016E 0.40 0.13 2.73
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2017E 0.44 0.11 2.83
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, BRR. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt21.20 Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Transport & Logistics
November 18, 2015
Bright earnings prospects to continue in 2016E Price Performance (%)
TP lifted to Bt26.50 from revised TP of BDMS; BUY maintained We maintain our BUY call for BA with a revised SOTP‐based target price of Bt26.50, vs. Bt25.00 previously, after revising the TP of BDMS to Bt22 (2016E TP) vs. Bt19 previously (2015E TP). We expect BA’s net profit to grow by 23% YoY in 2016E owing mainly to passenger volume expansion, especially at Samui International Airport. Still focusing on Samui route expansion in 2016E Upon entering the 4Q15 winter season, BA plans to increase flights to many destinations, with a primary focus on Samui, such as Samui‐Phuket and Samui‐Singapore. In 2016E, BA will introduce three new routes consisting of Samui‐Guangzhou, BKK‐Da Nang, and one destination in Myanmar; there will also be flight frequency increases for Samui‐Kuala Lumpur and further increases for Samui‐Singapore. Moreover, with additional codeshare partners and potential fleet upgrades, BA targets passenger volume growth of 17% in 2016E with flat average tick fares, in line with our expectation.
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.992
1.328
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐6.2%
‐25.5%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BA.BK/BA TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,100.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
45.00/1,238.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/2.11
52 week High / Low (Bt)
23.40/19.30
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
4,174.00 1.30
Estimated free float (%)
34.28
Beta
0.54
URL
www.bangkokair.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
‐
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Downside risk to 2016E net profit if FAA downgrades Thai aviation There has been no progress/result after the recent re‐audit by the FAA and EASA of the Thai aviation authorities and THAI in response to the safety standard red flag by the ICAO in Jun‐15. A worst‐case scenario of an FAA downgrade of Thai aviation to Category 2 would likely have a negative impact on passengers from codeshare partners; BA is in discussions with partners on changing the cooperation from codeshare to interline in the event of a downgrade. However, regarding interline cooperation, BA would have to realize booking fees, which may result in 5‐10% downside risk to our earnings projection in 2016E, based on US$6‐ 7/ticket booking fees and the assumption that around 20% of total passengers would likely be impacted. Nevertheless, we maintain our view that the ICAO issue will likely be resolved in 1H16E. 2015E net profit revised up from FX gains We maintain our norm. profit projections in 2015‐16E for BA. However, we revise up net profit in 2015E by 8% to Bt1.9bn owing to realization of FX gains. We expect BA’s net profit in 4Q15E to be soft on a quarterly basis owing to an expected bonus expense increase and deferred tax expenses related to two additional financial lease aircraft that BA will receive in 4Q15E. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 19,876 932 0.59 888 0.56 (6.10) 0.77 4.48 2013 37.73 12.04 4.73 3.65 12.16 166.39
2014 21,033 351 0.17 348 0.17 (70.53) 0.20 12.05 2014 128.04 11.45 1.76 0.94 2.15 cash
2015E 23,554 1,948 0.93 1,694 0.81 387.23 0.40 12.52 2015E 26.28 8.76 1.69 1.90 6.57 10.43
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2016E 27,648 2,083 0.99 2,083 0.99 22.93 0.50 13.01 2016E 21.38 7.51 1.63 2.34 7.77 13.17
2017E 30,703 2,224 1.06 2,224 1.06 6.79 0.53 13.54 2017E 20.02 6.85 1.57 2.50 7.98 11.49
Figure 1: Summary of sum‐of‐the‐parts (SOTP) valuation Company BA’s core business SPF BDMS
BA’s stake (%) 27.50 7.83
Total SOTP‐based valuation
Valuation Method PER of 17x (average PER of AAV and AOT) DCF (WACC 10%) KT ZMICO research target price of Bt22
Value to BA (Bt) 11.60 2.20 12.70 26.50
Source: KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: Expansion plan Figure 3: Network expansion
Source: BA
Figure 4: Advanced bookings Figure 5: BA’s fuel hedging as % of consumption
Source: BA
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables
PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A expense EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully Diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
2012 17,672 (13,165) 4,508 (2,556) 3,897 (1,945) 1,952 (1,868) 802 886 (458) 0 1,046 359 (61) 1,771 1.46 1.46 726 0.60 1.53
2013 19,876 (15,034) 4,842 (3,186) 3,760 (2,103) 1,657 (1,766) 800 691 (140) 0 45 394 (58) 932 0.59 0.59 888 0.56 0.77
2014 21,033 (17,563) 3,470 (2,974) 2,894 (2,398) 496 (1,638) 1,087 (55) (1) 0 3 438 (35) 351 0.17 0.17 348 0.17 0.20
2015E 23,554 (18,574) 4,980 (3,330) 4,137 (2,487) 1,650 (1,647) 1,407 1,410 (172) 254 0 504 (47) 1,948 0.93 0.93 1,694 0.81 0.40
2012 3,725 231 6,379 21,673 32,008 2,932 14,128 24,289 198 7,522 32,008
2013 3,064 228 6,339 20,762 30,393 2,108 12,737 23,201 111 7,080 30,393
2014 13,700 272 7,034 27,573 48,579 1,119 12,235 23,147 123 25,309 48,579
2015E 12,522 335 10,433 28,279 51,570 568 14,696 25,116 171 26,283 51,570
2012 1,771 593 1,863 (1,187) 3,040 342 (364) (22) (69) 13 (655) (711) 2,307 3,018 2.49
2013 932 573 416 (25) 1,897 1,691 (874) 817 (2,247) 845 (2,424) (3,826) (1,112) 2,714 1.72
2014 351 644 (543) (619) (167) 6,286 (17,372) (11,086) (1,460) 12,336 0 10,876 (377) (11,253) (5.36)
2015E 1,948 863 (773) (1,038) 1,000 (3,669) 0 (3,669) 1,909 0 (420) 1,489 (1,179) (2,669) (1.27)
2012 25.3 31.7 (426.3) 25.5 22.1 11.0 10.0 4.1 36.8
2013 12.5 (3.5) (6.1) 24.4 18.9 8.3 4.7 4.5 12.9
2014 5.8 (23.0) (70.5) 16.5 13.8 2.4 1.7 1.7 0.1
2015E 12.0 42.9 387.2 21.1 17.6 7.0 8.3 7.2 9.0
2012 0.69 1.77 1.84
2013 0.68 1.66 2.05
2014 0.35 (0.01) 1.77
2015E 0.37 0.10 2.41
2016E 27,648 (21,831) 5,816 (3,909) 4,938 (3,031) 1,908 (1,730) 1,641 1,818 (212) 0 0 535 (58) 2,083 0.99 0.99 2,083 0.99 0.50
2016E 14,821 394 12,662 28,862 56,738 190 18,230 29,185 229 27,324 56,738
2017E 19,200 437 13,575 29,501 62,714 25 22,443 33,986 291 28,436 62,713
2016E 2,083 1,005 (116) (886) 2,085 (2,095) 0 (2,095) 3,156 0 (847) 2,309 2,300 (10) 0.00
2017E 30,703 (24,433) 6,269 (4,341) 5,364 (3,435) 1,929 (1,814) 1,829 1,944 (226) 0 0 568 (62) 2,224 1.06 1.06 2,224 1.06 0.53
2017E 2,224 1,057 (241) (937) 2,104 (732) 0 (732) 4,048 0 (1,041) 3,007 4,379 1,372 0.65
2016E 17.4 19.4 22.9 21.0 17.9 6.9 7.5 7.5 9.0
2017E 11.0 8.6 6.8 20.4 17.5 6.3 7.2 7.2 9.0
2016E 0.40 0.13 2.73
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2017E 0.44 0.11 2.83
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, BRR. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
