Bangkok Airways
Bangkok Airways Buy (16E TP Bt29.00)
Company Update
Close Bt24.30
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Transport & Logistics
May 24, 2016
Bright earnings growth to continue Price Performance (%)
Maintain BUY with revised SOTP‐based target price of Bt29 We upgrade BA’s earnings estimates in 2016‐17E after better‐than‐ expected 1Q16 earnings results, which should continue for the rest of this year. As a result, we upgrade BA’s SOTP‐based TP to Bt29, vs. Bt26.50 previously. BUY maintained. Passenger volume still grew in Apr‐16 BA revealed 1mn advance ticket bookings currently, +17% YoY, of which 21% are scheduled to travel in May, 56% in Jun‐Sep 16, and the rest will travel in 4Q16. For April only, passenger volume still grew by 10% YoY despite entering the low season. As such, BA expects 2Q16E earnings to continue growing YoY (BA reported net profit of only Bt91mn in 2Q15).
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.318
1.501
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐18.8%
‐24.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BA.BK/BA TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,100.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
51.00/1,430.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/1.62
52 week High / Low (Bt)
27.50/19.30
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
4,932.00 1.27
Estimated free float (%)
34.28
Beta
0.65
URL
www.bangkokair.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3B (Established)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Introduced new route to Vietnam in May‐16 In 1Q16, 47% of BA’s passenger revenue (Bt6.1bn, 84% of total revenue) came from the Samui Island route, 25% from domestic destinations, 22% from Indochina, and 5% from other international destinations. The source of growth came mainly from the Samui route (+18% YoY) and the new route – BKK/Phnom Penh (Cambodia) – which has increased flight frequency from 5 to 6 flights daily since Jan‐16. BA will introduce a new route (sole operator) to Danang (Vietnam) in May‐16, and expects to add a codeshare partner from this destination in the future. In 1Q16, Austrian Airlines became BA’s twenty‐first codeshare partner, and it expects this to increase to 24‐25 codeshare partners by 2016E. 45‐57% of fuel usage in 2016E is hedged We believe the fluctuation of global oil prices is less likely to hurt BA’s performance as 45‐57% of the company’s fuel usage is currently hedged with an average cost of around US$53/barrel (vs. average cost of around US$100/barrel in 2015). Earnings revised up by 8% and 6% in 2016‐17E We revised up BA’s net profit estimates in 2016‐17E by 8% and 6% to Bt2.2bn and Bt2.4bn, respectively, owing mainly to the upward revision of its cabin factor by 2ppt in 2016E (to 70%, in line with the company’s guidance) and 1ppt in 2017E (to 69%). We keep our conservative view on flat ticket fares in 2016E, vs. +2% in 1Q16 (high season). Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 21,033 351 0.17 348 0.17 (70.53) 0.20 12.05 2014 154.00 2.12 13.83 0.78 2.15 cash
2015 23,113 1,797 0.86 1,474 0.70 323.89 0.70 14.74 2015 36.33 1.73 10.63 2.75 5.24 3.32
2016E 27,007 2,242 1.07 2,242 1.07 52.08 0.87 14.94 2016E 23.89 1.71 9.44 3.42 7.19 7.28
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 30,018 2,364 1.13 2,364 1.13 5.46 0.92 15.14 2017E 22.65 1.68 8.81 3.61 7.49 7.86
2018E 31,641 2.494 1.19 2.494 1.19 5.49 0.97 15.36 2018E 21.47 1.66 8.15 3.81 7.79 6.60
Figure 1: Summary of sum‐of‐the‐parts (SOTP) valuation Company BA’s core business SPF BDMS
BA’s stake (%) 30.36 7.83
Total SOTP‐based valuation
Valuation Method PER of 15x (average PER of regional airports & airline sector) DCF (WACC 10%) KT ZMICO research target price of Bt26
Value to BA (Bt) 10.20 3.60 15.00 28.80
Source: KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: Network expansion plan Figure 3: Advanced bookings
Source: BA
Figure 4: Fuel hedging as % of consumption
Source: BA
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables
PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A expense EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully Diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
2013 19,876 (15,034) 4,842 (3,186) 3,760 (2,103) 1,657 (1,766) 800 691 (140) 0 45 394 (58) 932 0.59 0.59 888 0.56 0.77
2014 21,033 (17,563) 3,470 (2,974) 2,887 (2,391) 496 (1,638) 1,087 (55) (1) 0 3 438 (35) 351 0.17 0.17 348 0.17 0.20
2015 23,113 (18,228) 4,885 (3,473) 3,886 (2,475) 1,412 (1,606) 1,467 1,272 (250) 323 0 504 (52) 1,797 0.86 0.86 1,474 0.70 0.70
2016E 27,007 (21,052) 5,955 (4,213) 4,512 (2,770) 1,742 (1,762) 2,014 1,994 (372) 0 0 699 (79) 2,242 1.07 1.07 2,242 1.07 0.87
2013 3,064 228 6,339 20,762 30,393 2,108 12,737 23,201 111 7,080 30,393
2014 13,700 272 7,034 27,573 48,579 1,119 12,235 23,147 123 25,309 48,579
2015 13,243 306 9,559 33,904 57,013 500 13,772 25,917 139 30,956 57,012
2016E 16,814 428 11,715 34,230 63,187 190 18,909 31,605 219 31,364 63,187
2013 932 573 416 (25) 1,897 1,691 (874) 817 (2,247) 845 (2,424) (3,826) (1,112) 2,714 1.72
2014 351 637 (597) (619) (228) 6,340 (17,372) (11,032) (1,460) 12,335 0 10,875 (385) (11,260) (5.36)
2015 1,797 834 (223) (616) 1,792 6,163 (3,938) 2,225 (619) (0) (945) (1,564) 2,453 4,017 1.91
2016E 2,242 958 154 (1,038) 2,316 (2,095) 0 (2,095) 4,827 0 (1,470) 3,357 3,578 221 0.11
2013 12.5 (3.5) (6.1) 24.4 18.9 8.3 4.7 4.5 12.9
2014 5.8 (23.2) (70.5) 16.5 13.7 2.4 1.7 1.7 0.1
2015 9.9 34.6 323.9 21.1 16.8 6.1 7.8 6.4 14.1
2016E 16.8 16.1 52.1 22.0 16.7 6.4 8.3 8.3 13.8
2013 0.68 1.66 2.05
2014 0.35 (0.01) 1.76
2015 0.32 0.03 2.26
2016E 0.38 0.07 2.35
2017E 30,018 (23,649) 6,369 (4,683) 4,860 (3,173) 1,686 (1,845) 2,256 2,097 (392) 0 0 743 (84) 2,364 1.13 1.13 2,364 1.13 0.92
2017E 22,239 476 12,841 34,580 70,137 25 24,715 38,040 302 31,794 70,137
2018E 27,445 502 13,190 34,807 75,944 0 29,572 43,305 391 32,248 75,944
2017E 2,364 1,010 77 (1,102) 2,350 (732) 0 (732) 5,641 0 (1,834) 3,807 5,425 1,618 0.77
2018E 31,641 (25,004) 6,637 (4,936) 5,207 (3,506) 1,701 (1,926) 2,430 2,205 (413) 0 0 791 (88) 2,494 1.19 1.19 2,494 1.19 0.97
2018E 2,494 1,016 14 (1,168) 2,356 (50) 0 (50) 4,833 0 (1,934) 2,899 5,205 2,306 1.10
2017E 11.1 7.7 5.5 21.2 16.2 5.6 7.9 7.9 13.8
2018E 5.4 7.2 5.5 21.0 16.5 5.4 7.9 7.9 13.8
2017E 0.44 0.08 2.42
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2018E 0.48 0.07 2.49
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt24.30
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Transport & Logistics
May 24, 2016
Bright earnings growth to continue Price Performance (%)
Maintain BUY with revised SOTP‐based target price of Bt29 We upgrade BA’s earnings estimates in 2016‐17E after better‐than‐ expected 1Q16 earnings results, which should continue for the rest of this year. As a result, we upgrade BA’s SOTP‐based TP to Bt29, vs. Bt26.50 previously. BUY maintained. Passenger volume still grew in Apr‐16 BA revealed 1mn advance ticket bookings currently, +17% YoY, of which 21% are scheduled to travel in May, 56% in Jun‐Sep 16, and the rest will travel in 4Q16. For April only, passenger volume still grew by 10% YoY despite entering the low season. As such, BA expects 2Q16E earnings to continue growing YoY (BA reported net profit of only Bt91mn in 2Q15).
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.318
1.501
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐18.8%
‐24.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BA.BK/BA TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,100.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
51.00/1,430.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/1.62
52 week High / Low (Bt)
27.50/19.30
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
4,932.00 1.27
Estimated free float (%)
34.28
Beta
0.65
URL
www.bangkokair.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3B (Established)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Introduced new route to Vietnam in May‐16 In 1Q16, 47% of BA’s passenger revenue (Bt6.1bn, 84% of total revenue) came from the Samui Island route, 25% from domestic destinations, 22% from Indochina, and 5% from other international destinations. The source of growth came mainly from the Samui route (+18% YoY) and the new route – BKK/Phnom Penh (Cambodia) – which has increased flight frequency from 5 to 6 flights daily since Jan‐16. BA will introduce a new route (sole operator) to Danang (Vietnam) in May‐16, and expects to add a codeshare partner from this destination in the future. In 1Q16, Austrian Airlines became BA’s twenty‐first codeshare partner, and it expects this to increase to 24‐25 codeshare partners by 2016E. 45‐57% of fuel usage in 2016E is hedged We believe the fluctuation of global oil prices is less likely to hurt BA’s performance as 45‐57% of the company’s fuel usage is currently hedged with an average cost of around US$53/barrel (vs. average cost of around US$100/barrel in 2015). Earnings revised up by 8% and 6% in 2016‐17E We revised up BA’s net profit estimates in 2016‐17E by 8% and 6% to Bt2.2bn and Bt2.4bn, respectively, owing mainly to the upward revision of its cabin factor by 2ppt in 2016E (to 70%, in line with the company’s guidance) and 1ppt in 2017E (to 69%). We keep our conservative view on flat ticket fares in 2016E, vs. +2% in 1Q16 (high season). Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 21,033 351 0.17 348 0.17 (70.53) 0.20 12.05 2014 154.00 2.12 13.83 0.78 2.15 cash
2015 23,113 1,797 0.86 1,474 0.70 323.89 0.70 14.74 2015 36.33 1.73 10.63 2.75 5.24 3.32
2016E 27,007 2,242 1.07 2,242 1.07 52.08 0.87 14.94 2016E 23.89 1.71 9.44 3.42 7.19 7.28
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 30,018 2,364 1.13 2,364 1.13 5.46 0.92 15.14 2017E 22.65 1.68 8.81 3.61 7.49 7.86
2018E 31,641 2.494 1.19 2.494 1.19 5.49 0.97 15.36 2018E 21.47 1.66 8.15 3.81 7.79 6.60
Figure 1: Summary of sum‐of‐the‐parts (SOTP) valuation Company BA’s core business SPF BDMS
BA’s stake (%) 30.36 7.83
Total SOTP‐based valuation
Valuation Method PER of 15x (average PER of regional airports & airline sector) DCF (WACC 10%) KT ZMICO research target price of Bt26
Value to BA (Bt) 10.20 3.60 15.00 28.80
Source: KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: Network expansion plan Figure 3: Advanced bookings
Source: BA
Figure 4: Fuel hedging as % of consumption
Source: BA
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables
PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A expense EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully Diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
2013 19,876 (15,034) 4,842 (3,186) 3,760 (2,103) 1,657 (1,766) 800 691 (140) 0 45 394 (58) 932 0.59 0.59 888 0.56 0.77
2014 21,033 (17,563) 3,470 (2,974) 2,887 (2,391) 496 (1,638) 1,087 (55) (1) 0 3 438 (35) 351 0.17 0.17 348 0.17 0.20
2015 23,113 (18,228) 4,885 (3,473) 3,886 (2,475) 1,412 (1,606) 1,467 1,272 (250) 323 0 504 (52) 1,797 0.86 0.86 1,474 0.70 0.70
2016E 27,007 (21,052) 5,955 (4,213) 4,512 (2,770) 1,742 (1,762) 2,014 1,994 (372) 0 0 699 (79) 2,242 1.07 1.07 2,242 1.07 0.87
2013 3,064 228 6,339 20,762 30,393 2,108 12,737 23,201 111 7,080 30,393
2014 13,700 272 7,034 27,573 48,579 1,119 12,235 23,147 123 25,309 48,579
2015 13,243 306 9,559 33,904 57,013 500 13,772 25,917 139 30,956 57,012
2016E 16,814 428 11,715 34,230 63,187 190 18,909 31,605 219 31,364 63,187
2013 932 573 416 (25) 1,897 1,691 (874) 817 (2,247) 845 (2,424) (3,826) (1,112) 2,714 1.72
2014 351 637 (597) (619) (228) 6,340 (17,372) (11,032) (1,460) 12,335 0 10,875 (385) (11,260) (5.36)
2015 1,797 834 (223) (616) 1,792 6,163 (3,938) 2,225 (619) (0) (945) (1,564) 2,453 4,017 1.91
2016E 2,242 958 154 (1,038) 2,316 (2,095) 0 (2,095) 4,827 0 (1,470) 3,357 3,578 221 0.11
2013 12.5 (3.5) (6.1) 24.4 18.9 8.3 4.7 4.5 12.9
2014 5.8 (23.2) (70.5) 16.5 13.7 2.4 1.7 1.7 0.1
2015 9.9 34.6 323.9 21.1 16.8 6.1 7.8 6.4 14.1
2016E 16.8 16.1 52.1 22.0 16.7 6.4 8.3 8.3 13.8
2013 0.68 1.66 2.05
2014 0.35 (0.01) 1.76
2015 0.32 0.03 2.26
2016E 0.38 0.07 2.35
2017E 30,018 (23,649) 6,369 (4,683) 4,860 (3,173) 1,686 (1,845) 2,256 2,097 (392) 0 0 743 (84) 2,364 1.13 1.13 2,364 1.13 0.92
2017E 22,239 476 12,841 34,580 70,137 25 24,715 38,040 302 31,794 70,137
2018E 27,445 502 13,190 34,807 75,944 0 29,572 43,305 391 32,248 75,944
2017E 2,364 1,010 77 (1,102) 2,350 (732) 0 (732) 5,641 0 (1,834) 3,807 5,425 1,618 0.77
2018E 31,641 (25,004) 6,637 (4,936) 5,207 (3,506) 1,701 (1,926) 2,430 2,205 (413) 0 0 791 (88) 2,494 1.19 1.19 2,494 1.19 0.97
2018E 2,494 1,016 14 (1,168) 2,356 (50) 0 (50) 4,833 0 (1,934) 2,899 5,205 2,306 1.10
2017E 11.1 7.7 5.5 21.2 16.2 5.6 7.9 7.9 13.8
2018E 5.4 7.2 5.5 21.0 16.5 5.4 7.9 7.9 13.8
2017E 0.44 0.08 2.42
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2018E 0.48 0.07 2.49
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
