Beyond the Ballot
Building upon our post-election survey analysis, the “Beyond the Ballot” research series seeks to identify the demographic profile of persuadable swing voters and the center-right policy messages that resonate with them. It is an ongoing, data-driven approach providing conservatives with fresh analysis in defining the proper role of government and perception of both political parties among today’s changing electorate. This series will focus on three primary demographics: race/ethnicity, age, and gender. AN EXCLUSIVE MULTI-PART SERIES
If there’s a silver lining from the 2012 election, it’s that conservatives are beginning to address the demographic changes that have escalated over the past two decades and will continue to shape future elections. This is a topic Resurgent Republic has devoted considerable attention and resources toward since our founding in 2009 and will remain a top priority moving forward. Republicans lost the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections. In fact, the last time Republicans won the majority of votes in consecutive presidential elections was in the 1980’s with an electorate that was 85 percent white – 13 percentage points higher than the 2012 turnout. When considering electoral votes, Democrats won four presidential contests during this span by an average of 185 electoral votes (362-177) compared to two Republican victories by 20 electoral votes (279-259). In the wake of President Obama’s 4.6 million-vote victory, it’s evident that conservatives are too reliant on a declining number of voters while Democrats have made inroads with voters whose political clout is rising. Driven by an increase among Latinos, younger voters had a higher turnout in 2012 than 2008. Women continue to outnumber men at the voting booth and often determine the outcome in swing counties. Successful candidates and policy makers, and their corresponding messages and outreach tactics, operate within the demographic realities of today’s electorate. The following is a brief rationale outlining the three voting demographics the Beyond the Ballot series highlights.
RACE / ETHNICITY With an electorate becoming less white, center-right candidates need to make inroads among all minority groups. In recent elections Hispanics and Asians have the sharpest decline in support for Republicans while simultaneously increasing their turnout.
Hispanics Every month for the next two decades, 50,000 Hispanics become eligible to vote.
Asians There is a growing Asian population in states with competitive gubernatorial races in 2013 and 2014: Virginia (7%), New Jersey, (9%), and Nevada (9%).
VOTERS UNDER 40 There is a political divide between younger voters and those who have gone over the hill. In recent elections, voters under 40 years old tend to favor Democrats while support for Republicans increases among older age groups. Despite lower enthusiasm, younger voters have been remarkably reliable in turnout. 18 to 29 While there was a net 11-point shift away from Democrats since 2008, these voters still supported President Obama by a 23-point margin. 30 to 39 In 2012 these voters supported Democrats at a slightly greater margin (55-42) than four years prior (55-44).
WOMEN VOTERS Women have outvoted men by an average of 5 points in presidential elections since 1980. In 2012, women had higher turnout than men among whites (+4), blacks (+3), and Hispanics (+1). While Romney won white women by 14 points (56-42), that outcome was reversed in battlegrounds such as Wisconsin (47-53), New Hampshire (43-56), and Iowa (41-58). According to our post-election survey, women were more likely than men to believe key issues like the economy and jobs, education, and the health care reform law were extremely important. Other research has shown that women voters are more open to considering the role government plays in solving these issues. When considering a path forward, conservatives need to improve among nonmarried and suburban women, especially those under 40. Suburban College-Educated Women This voting subgroup is key to winning several swing counties and states across the country, including Southeastern Pennsylvania, Northern Virginia, and suburbs surrounding Denver and Las Vegas. Married and Non-Married In 2012 married women supported Republicans by 7 points while non-married women favored Democrats by 36 points. Moreover, nonmarried women accounted for 23 percent of the electorate, up 2 points, and married women made up 31 percent, down 1 point.
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If there’s a silver lining from the 2012 election, it’s that conservatives are beginning to address the demographic changes that have escalated over the past two decades and will continue to shape future elections. This is a topic Resurgent Republic has devoted considerable attention and resources toward since our founding in 2009 and will remain a top priority moving forward. Republicans lost the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections. In fact, the last time Republicans won the majority of votes in consecutive presidential elections was in the 1980’s with an electorate that was 85 percent white – 13 percentage points higher than the 2012 turnout. When considering electoral votes, Democrats won four presidential contests during this span by an average of 185 electoral votes (362-177) compared to two Republican victories by 20 electoral votes (279-259). In the wake of President Obama’s 4.6 million-vote victory, it’s evident that conservatives are too reliant on a declining number of voters while Democrats have made inroads with voters whose political clout is rising. Driven by an increase among Latinos, younger voters had a higher turnout in 2012 than 2008. Women continue to outnumber men at the voting booth and often determine the outcome in swing counties. Successful candidates and policy makers, and their corresponding messages and outreach tactics, operate within the demographic realities of today’s electorate. The following is a brief rationale outlining the three voting demographics the Beyond the Ballot series highlights.
RACE / ETHNICITY With an electorate becoming less white, center-right candidates need to make inroads among all minority groups. In recent elections Hispanics and Asians have the sharpest decline in support for Republicans while simultaneously increasing their turnout.
Hispanics Every month for the next two decades, 50,000 Hispanics become eligible to vote.
Asians There is a growing Asian population in states with competitive gubernatorial races in 2013 and 2014: Virginia (7%), New Jersey, (9%), and Nevada (9%).
VOTERS UNDER 40 There is a political divide between younger voters and those who have gone over the hill. In recent elections, voters under 40 years old tend to favor Democrats while support for Republicans increases among older age groups. Despite lower enthusiasm, younger voters have been remarkably reliable in turnout. 18 to 29 While there was a net 11-point shift away from Democrats since 2008, these voters still supported President Obama by a 23-point margin. 30 to 39 In 2012 these voters supported Democrats at a slightly greater margin (55-42) than four years prior (55-44).
WOMEN VOTERS Women have outvoted men by an average of 5 points in presidential elections since 1980. In 2012, women had higher turnout than men among whites (+4), blacks (+3), and Hispanics (+1). While Romney won white women by 14 points (56-42), that outcome was reversed in battlegrounds such as Wisconsin (47-53), New Hampshire (43-56), and Iowa (41-58). According to our post-election survey, women were more likely than men to believe key issues like the economy and jobs, education, and the health care reform law were extremely important. Other research has shown that women voters are more open to considering the role government plays in solving these issues. When considering a path forward, conservatives need to improve among nonmarried and suburban women, especially those under 40. Suburban College-Educated Women This voting subgroup is key to winning several swing counties and states across the country, including Southeastern Pennsylvania, Northern Virginia, and suburbs surrounding Denver and Las Vegas. Married and Non-Married In 2012 married women supported Republicans by 7 points while non-married women favored Democrats by 36 points. Moreover, nonmarried women accounted for 23 percent of the electorate, up 2 points, and married women made up 31 percent, down 1 point.
READ MORE AT WWW.RESURGENTREPUBLIC.COM .COM /RESURGENTREPUBLIC
.COM @RESURGENTREP
