Bio 2109 - Ecology
Bio 2109 - Ecology
Professor: Jeremy Kerr Gendron 373 [email protected] http://137.122.14.197/BIO2129
-10 000 years ago soemthing happen that makes there be a huge increase in population -As soon as agricultural production increases humans stop spending time, life expectancy starts getting longer. Reproduction is more likely to yield. Happens in different part of tjhe world . populaton growth is not simultaneous. -Today 7 billion
Human population growth
2
Hyper-exponential growth
Exponential growth 1 dN is constant through time N dt
Logistic growth
per capita growth rate throught time.
-Population growing exponentially: grows really fast -Logistic growth: Populations are very small, growth patter looks like exponential, but as you get to carrying capacity the population will stop growing here. We dont show this pattern -Hyper- exponential growth:
1 dN diminishes through time N dt
Hyper-exponential growth
1 dN increases through time N dt
Population doubling times: – 0 →1650 AD; 1830 → 1930; 1930 →1974 3
Page 1 1
Allogratic relationships: ex, body size and population density -o popultion can grow ecponenlatily for a little amount tof time
Numbers of humans
1000X more abundance than other species with comparable body size (we have similar population densities to mammals with body sizes of ~1kg – e.g. ?) 1997
Peters & Raelson 1984 4
Human population growth
Malthus: Populations tend to grow: exponentially Resource availability can grow: linearly - something will eventually limit growth
1980
2000
2020 5
Global agricultural productivity 1955-1995
Doubling of human population Cultivated area: small increase Productivity per hectare: ↑ ↑
6
Page 2 2
Productivity has increased faster than human population, at least until recently. … but NOT everwhere! … has productivity peaked?
C a lorie s /pe rs on/y e a r
Global agricultural productivity
2900 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1950
1970 1990 World Central Africa India East and South Asia
2010
Data: http://apps.fao.org
7
Per capita agricultural productivity
Malnutrition remains common
% malnourished
Lomborg 2001
8
Projected future growth
Depends on lots of factors, particularly on AIDS mortality
>1 person added every second. 1 hectare of agricultural land is lost every 7.67 seconds. (United Nations sources) http://tranquileye.com/clock/ 9
Page 3 3
Why has the human population grown hyper-exponentially?
Due principally to a decline in mortality rates with no accompanying decline in birth rates. Life expectancy of males in England
10
Reduced rates of infectious diseases -HIV/AIDS has reduced life expectancy to below 40 in many sub-Saharan countries (e.g. South Africa, Botswana, etc.). -5 Million people were infected in 2005, more than ever. The majority of these were in sub-Saharan Africa and many (perhaps most) will die. -500,000 children died of HIV/AIDS 2005.
Gastroenteritis
11
clean water and vaccioantions reduce death rates, but but birth rates remain high
The demographic transition
most conttries is at the end the the themographic conditions. -Theres a relativelry long time period that its at play... the rapid population growth is expected to be large. -when u drop death really fast- porperty of a demographic transition is that the gap between birth and death is vast. -
12
Page 4 4
-the mortality issue is statistical sense easy, (sanitation, fresh water.. becasue we know the basic impacts of mortality) .
The demographic transition
-nataity coems down with change at economic conditions
Mortality ↓ Due to improved hygiene and clean water (i.e. simple medical and civil innovations)
Natality ↓ Due to improved economic conditions
13
Birth rates: Highest in impoverished countries (LDCs)
-death rates come down, becasue vacciones are aviable, reducing mortality. -south sarhara africa has the highest birth rate. -signapore and also the republib of china has low ... -human popualtion growth thru time. So if pop stabilizes or become smaller, ecomy tends to get smaller.
14
Factors that affect birth rates Per capita GNP (i.e. GNP divided among whole population)
B irth rates in 1970
60
GNP predictior of birth rates. -this is thought t be true personal and family level in countrys that are poor is becasue personal securtiy are hard to achieve .... -the more children u have the more likely ur gonna achieve economical security
30
0 0 500 1000 Average income per capita in 1965 ($US) 15
Page 5 5
venezuela: very rich but birth rate is very high expected to be, given how wealthy it is.
Birth rates vs. individual income Birth rates in 1970 (per 1000 people)
60
-why does some countrys are like this? -This requires consideration ofa second dimentin. First factor is how wealthy countrys are, but that is not all factors...
Mexico South Africa Venezuela
30 Taiwan South Korea Greece
0 0
500
1000
Average income per capita in 1965 ($US) 16
Seconfdfactor is income equality. -Income inequality, not how welthy the coutnry is, it s talking about the distribution of the wealth in the population. -ex: a small section is rich, ( wealth is in hands of a few, and kept from the rest). ...but a large portion is poor. An unequally weatlhy country is comapred to a country that is not wealthy.So if most of ppl are livign in poverty, it will reflect birth rates that are in that level of wealth. in some contries only 1% of that pop actually controls all the economic resources.
Factors affecting birth rates
Average income (per capita GNP) Income equality: measured by GINI Perfect equality: x% of people control x% of country’s wealth. Perfect inequality: 1 person controls all the wealth. Gini coefficient: the area of the deviation from the 1:1 line as a proportion of the difference between perfect equality and perfect inequality.
You can measure the inequality in diff ways. Describing the graph...(be cautious) -gini coeficiente is calculated by using the lorenz curve. -each quentile has the exact same number of ppl in it| -you figurate how much wealth is in each segment, as you organize from poorest from richest. So not only divie in quintile, you make sure the quintile far left is the poorest (in this ex, poorest 20%), so and so on. -now calculate in each quantiles controls the wealth. how much more do they control?
17
how to measure the porportion of wearlth?-look at mag of deviation btw straight line and bow line.If like is bow srongly, means sociaty is EXTREMALLY unequal. -unequal countrys--poor--birth rates are high-- therefore birthrates overal all birthrates as a country are higher as u spect.
Birth rates and income inequity around the world you ca use income inequality as a mesauremnt of what those trens look like (birht rates) after you control for the trend with GNP
20 D e v ia tio n s fro m th e b irth ra te c u rv e
Venezuela
South Africa Mexico
0
-20
Yugoslavia Greece Taiwan Sri Lanka 0.3
0.5 Income inequity
0.7
you still have some conturns below and avobe the line. Now you gotta explain why. And this is what this graph measures. Y axis shows wether above or below the line.This is what is known as the residuals graph... trying to explain the pattern of GNP. -The more unequal societies are the fruther avobe the line the fall. (south africa,, birth rates are high relative to the wealth). Some countrys are way below the line ( Yugoslavia, greece) and in terms od statistics is becasue wealth were distributed.
18
Page 6 6
third factor EDUCATION (harder to measure)
Factors affecting birth rates
-kids- lose more money. 1 2 3
Average income (per capita GNP) Income equality: measured by Gini coefficient Education
19
Factors affecting birth rates
In short: financial security: - the decision to have, or not to have, children is based (in theory) on cost-benefit considerations.
20
contraception: acces to birht control. VOLUNTARY -india:main were able to gain access to disectime , but no one took it.
Reducing population growth
Contraception?
-china: one child policy, pressure from goverment.
Voluntary (e.g. India) - didn’t work Coercive (e.g. China) - did work but with serious human rights impacts
Social programs: -woman acces to contraception.
Social programs (e.g. in Sri Lanka) Can work but very costly
21
Page 7 7
- t a global scale human pop from palce to place, have diff foot prints. -canadas footprint is high -most ppl in the workld live in developing economies.
Per capita environmental impacts
“Ecological footprint” Rees (UBC) & Wackernagel Area of productive land required to support each person with resources to sustain their affluence. – - food, transportation, manufactured goods, energy, etc. – - absorb by-products, wastes
ecological footproint is per person. include thinfs like food, energy consuption, etc
22
I=PAT ecuation
Ecological Footprint
I = PAT where I = environmental impact, P = population size, A = affluence, and T = technology Environmental scarcity arises in three ways: 1. demand-induced scarcity is a result of population growth in a region, 2. supply-induced scarcity arises from the degradation of resources, and 3. structural scarcity occurs because of the seriously unequal social distribution of these resources. These three types of scarcity are not mutually exclusive; they often occur simultaneously and interact.
very large pop size, impact will be greater. if sociate is very afluent, then it tends to consume more in order to sustein. Therefore sociates that are afluent, impact will be greater -Tecnology can use to facility increasis in consuption, or it can decrease impact. all 3 can operate at once, or not.
(Homer-Dixon, T. 1994. Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases. International Security. 19: 7.)
23
Ecological footprint
24
Page 8 8
-when capital is gone, no more interst -Demand too high and not nought supply
Ecological footprint population
Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China Colombia Costa Rica France Germany United States
footprint
(in 1997) in [ha/cap] 35,405,000 3.9 18,550,000 9.0 167,046,000 3.1 30,101,000 7.7 1,247,315,000 1.2 36,200,000 2.0 3,575,000 2.5 58,433,000 4.1 81,845,000 5.3 268,189,000
10.3
available ecol. deficit (if capacity negative) in [ha/cap] in [ha/cap] 4.6 0.7 14.0 5.0 6.7 3.6 9.6 1.9 0.8 -0.4 4.1 2.1 2.5 0.0 4.2 0.1 1.9 -3.4 6.7
-3.6
total fp
total av.cap
[km2] [km2] 1,380,795 1,628,630 1,669,500 2,597,000 5,178,426 11,192,082 2,317,777 2,889,696 14,967,780 9,978,520 724,000 1,484,200 89,375 89,375 2,395,753 2,454,186 4,337,785 1,555,055 27,623,467
17,968,663
Two additional beers per person in China would consume the entire Norwegian grain harvest. Per capita grain production peaked in 1984 and has dropped 10% since.
Note: At 11am this morning, US population size was
~303,311,361
25
-a very small proportion of worlds pop does a very high consuptopn.
-Deficit here means that we are going into capital and drawing that down (ex fewer numbers of trees that there used to be..regeions being degraded... fisheries becoming depleated..) Things disapearing thru time. -Things important to understand reduced comsuption bby pipulations that are very large would change the whole world resources supply and consuption. (SMALL POPULATIONS.bolivians changing life style, but thers few bolivians,, at a global spcale it is a very small pop... locally will be large. LARGE POPULATION:if indian changing resource consuption, since that pop is that large,... what you would see is that the whole world resources supply changes in a large way) -Roughly just about 1 and 3 ppl in the world lives in either china or india (developing countries). If theres high resource consupton in these contries.. huge problem. This issues yields pretty serius consequences. -Undevelop countrys can develop like ex USA did cuz otherwise we are screeweeed :O -In terms of pop growth still continues in some develop countries to a significant degree -
Ecological footprint
IMPORTANT CONCEPT: Falacy of nederlands -no natual space let, their afluence is vast, consuption rate high, amount of space that they require given their pop size is like 3x the space the actually have.
In Canada: 5.3 ha / person Energy, fossil fues production: 2.9 ha Food: 1.1 ha Forestry, resource extraction: 0.9 ha Built-up areas (buildings, transportation): 0.2 ha
-you can measure how envaromental impact looks like -you can try to reduce it without affecting quality of life|
The United States consumes more energy than India, the Middle East, South America, Africa, South East Asia and Oceania combined (3.1 billion people). About 20% of the world’s environmental impact comes from the USA. This is expected to drop to about 17.5% of total impact by 2015. (Rosa et al. 2007) 26
-Ecological foot print graph. -with represents how many ppl in terms of that many ppl with that ecoloical foot print. -this graph shows that diff pop has diff footfrints
Ecological footprint
27
Page 9 9
Consequences of human population growth
-Impacts in form of pollution. Ex: central valley in california, thers alrge mechanised alfriculture and fertilizer applied...these are pollutant, or atphospheric (sometiems you can see it from space).\
Pollution Over-exploitation of resources Habitat loss, extinctions
-scattered graph is about endgareded birds..
4
Bénin
3
Malawi Niger
per country
Proportion des espèces d'oiseaux Endangered bird species menacée d'extinction
From Kerr & Currie 1995
2 1 0
-1 -2 -3 -2
Indonésie -1
0
1
2
Log (Human population density) log Densité de la population humaine 28
Ecological footprint
Resource use in LDCs is very small relative to MDCs
er ic Ja a pa n Eu ro M idd pe le E n Ea s ti S o re W t ut h A o r ld m er ica Ch As in a ia (o th er ) Af ri c a
0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0
No
r th
Am
m e g a B T U / p e rs
If the entire world lived according to North American consumption standards, 3 planet Earths would be required to support the population.
29
-satellite images. -exponential change.. might look fine today, but it can get bad -
Human footprint and the last of the wild
83% of the wilderness has been modified for human uses. 98% of potential agricultural land is already in use.
30
Page 10 10
The last of the wild
Even areas that appear “wild” are affected by human activities. E.g. 98% of the variation in extinction rates in parks in Ghana result from how big the parks are and human population density within 50km of the park.
31
Global gap analysis: what species are excluded from protected areas (parks)?
32
Using parks to conserve biodiversity
protected areas prove that there can be change. -ex no finishing permited in some marine areas, fish pop comes back
Kerr and Cihlar 2004, Ecol. App.
-if you but this in the right spots you can protect alot of species. -
thesed are the number of places are species are in danger
33
Page 11 11
“The wrong time for climate change”
-conservations strategies are not dynamic
Butterfly species richness change between 1880-1949 and 1950-2000 epochs
34
Climate change is exerting substantial negative effects and these will increasingly dominate over the next few decades. Read the summary of the Stern Report.
35
hockey stick graph. -
started to go up with industrial revelution
36
Page 12 12
this is the impact of carbon from industrial burning
solar radiants. -making the air clenaer, by removing black carbn reduces climate change -oceans are turning into acid.
37
-numbers are big and getting bigger.
Freshwater supplies
CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMARY -cliamte change is real -currently casued by humans LOOK AT THIS SLIDE, NOT IN NOTES.
In 2000, >500 million people lived in 31 countries under water stress. By 2025, >3 billion people will live in 48 such countries (State of the World Report, 2001)
38
Maximum carrying capacity for humans? Current population: > 6 Billion An optimistic (i.e. too high) guess, by Cohen 1995: 15 billion??
-we surpassed 6 billion -some people have argued that you can manage 15 billion, hard to imagine how that would work, hard to manage in long term. Whos gona be rick whos gonna be poor. -stability is a big issue. -
At what economic level? What about equity? With what kind of stability? Biological impacts (which are harbingers of consequences for humans)?
Probably level off beyond 9 billion
39
Page 13 13
Professor: Jeremy Kerr Gendron 373 [email protected] http://137.122.14.197/BIO2129
-10 000 years ago soemthing happen that makes there be a huge increase in population -As soon as agricultural production increases humans stop spending time, life expectancy starts getting longer. Reproduction is more likely to yield. Happens in different part of tjhe world . populaton growth is not simultaneous. -Today 7 billion
Human population growth
2
Hyper-exponential growth
Exponential growth 1 dN is constant through time N dt
Logistic growth
per capita growth rate throught time.
-Population growing exponentially: grows really fast -Logistic growth: Populations are very small, growth patter looks like exponential, but as you get to carrying capacity the population will stop growing here. We dont show this pattern -Hyper- exponential growth:
1 dN diminishes through time N dt
Hyper-exponential growth
1 dN increases through time N dt
Population doubling times: – 0 →1650 AD; 1830 → 1930; 1930 →1974 3
Page 1 1
Allogratic relationships: ex, body size and population density -o popultion can grow ecponenlatily for a little amount tof time
Numbers of humans
1000X more abundance than other species with comparable body size (we have similar population densities to mammals with body sizes of ~1kg – e.g. ?) 1997
Peters & Raelson 1984 4
Human population growth
Malthus: Populations tend to grow: exponentially Resource availability can grow: linearly - something will eventually limit growth
1980
2000
2020 5
Global agricultural productivity 1955-1995
Doubling of human population Cultivated area: small increase Productivity per hectare: ↑ ↑
6
Page 2 2
Productivity has increased faster than human population, at least until recently. … but NOT everwhere! … has productivity peaked?
C a lorie s /pe rs on/y e a r
Global agricultural productivity
2900 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1950
1970 1990 World Central Africa India East and South Asia
2010
Data: http://apps.fao.org
7
Per capita agricultural productivity
Malnutrition remains common
% malnourished
Lomborg 2001
8
Projected future growth
Depends on lots of factors, particularly on AIDS mortality
>1 person added every second. 1 hectare of agricultural land is lost every 7.67 seconds. (United Nations sources) http://tranquileye.com/clock/ 9
Page 3 3
Why has the human population grown hyper-exponentially?
Due principally to a decline in mortality rates with no accompanying decline in birth rates. Life expectancy of males in England
10
Reduced rates of infectious diseases -HIV/AIDS has reduced life expectancy to below 40 in many sub-Saharan countries (e.g. South Africa, Botswana, etc.). -5 Million people were infected in 2005, more than ever. The majority of these were in sub-Saharan Africa and many (perhaps most) will die. -500,000 children died of HIV/AIDS 2005.
Gastroenteritis
11
clean water and vaccioantions reduce death rates, but but birth rates remain high
The demographic transition
most conttries is at the end the the themographic conditions. -Theres a relativelry long time period that its at play... the rapid population growth is expected to be large. -when u drop death really fast- porperty of a demographic transition is that the gap between birth and death is vast. -
12
Page 4 4
-the mortality issue is statistical sense easy, (sanitation, fresh water.. becasue we know the basic impacts of mortality) .
The demographic transition
-nataity coems down with change at economic conditions
Mortality ↓ Due to improved hygiene and clean water (i.e. simple medical and civil innovations)
Natality ↓ Due to improved economic conditions
13
Birth rates: Highest in impoverished countries (LDCs)
-death rates come down, becasue vacciones are aviable, reducing mortality. -south sarhara africa has the highest birth rate. -signapore and also the republib of china has low ... -human popualtion growth thru time. So if pop stabilizes or become smaller, ecomy tends to get smaller.
14
Factors that affect birth rates Per capita GNP (i.e. GNP divided among whole population)
B irth rates in 1970
60
GNP predictior of birth rates. -this is thought t be true personal and family level in countrys that are poor is becasue personal securtiy are hard to achieve .... -the more children u have the more likely ur gonna achieve economical security
30
0 0 500 1000 Average income per capita in 1965 ($US) 15
Page 5 5
venezuela: very rich but birth rate is very high expected to be, given how wealthy it is.
Birth rates vs. individual income Birth rates in 1970 (per 1000 people)
60
-why does some countrys are like this? -This requires consideration ofa second dimentin. First factor is how wealthy countrys are, but that is not all factors...
Mexico South Africa Venezuela
30 Taiwan South Korea Greece
0 0
500
1000
Average income per capita in 1965 ($US) 16
Seconfdfactor is income equality. -Income inequality, not how welthy the coutnry is, it s talking about the distribution of the wealth in the population. -ex: a small section is rich, ( wealth is in hands of a few, and kept from the rest). ...but a large portion is poor. An unequally weatlhy country is comapred to a country that is not wealthy.So if most of ppl are livign in poverty, it will reflect birth rates that are in that level of wealth. in some contries only 1% of that pop actually controls all the economic resources.
Factors affecting birth rates
Average income (per capita GNP) Income equality: measured by GINI Perfect equality: x% of people control x% of country’s wealth. Perfect inequality: 1 person controls all the wealth. Gini coefficient: the area of the deviation from the 1:1 line as a proportion of the difference between perfect equality and perfect inequality.
You can measure the inequality in diff ways. Describing the graph...(be cautious) -gini coeficiente is calculated by using the lorenz curve. -each quentile has the exact same number of ppl in it| -you figurate how much wealth is in each segment, as you organize from poorest from richest. So not only divie in quintile, you make sure the quintile far left is the poorest (in this ex, poorest 20%), so and so on. -now calculate in each quantiles controls the wealth. how much more do they control?
17
how to measure the porportion of wearlth?-look at mag of deviation btw straight line and bow line.If like is bow srongly, means sociaty is EXTREMALLY unequal. -unequal countrys--poor--birth rates are high-- therefore birthrates overal all birthrates as a country are higher as u spect.
Birth rates and income inequity around the world you ca use income inequality as a mesauremnt of what those trens look like (birht rates) after you control for the trend with GNP
20 D e v ia tio n s fro m th e b irth ra te c u rv e
Venezuela
South Africa Mexico
0
-20
Yugoslavia Greece Taiwan Sri Lanka 0.3
0.5 Income inequity
0.7
you still have some conturns below and avobe the line. Now you gotta explain why. And this is what this graph measures. Y axis shows wether above or below the line.This is what is known as the residuals graph... trying to explain the pattern of GNP. -The more unequal societies are the fruther avobe the line the fall. (south africa,, birth rates are high relative to the wealth). Some countrys are way below the line ( Yugoslavia, greece) and in terms od statistics is becasue wealth were distributed.
18
Page 6 6
third factor EDUCATION (harder to measure)
Factors affecting birth rates
-kids- lose more money. 1 2 3
Average income (per capita GNP) Income equality: measured by Gini coefficient Education
19
Factors affecting birth rates
In short: financial security: - the decision to have, or not to have, children is based (in theory) on cost-benefit considerations.
20
contraception: acces to birht control. VOLUNTARY -india:main were able to gain access to disectime , but no one took it.
Reducing population growth
Contraception?
-china: one child policy, pressure from goverment.
Voluntary (e.g. India) - didn’t work Coercive (e.g. China) - did work but with serious human rights impacts
Social programs: -woman acces to contraception.
Social programs (e.g. in Sri Lanka) Can work but very costly
21
Page 7 7
- t a global scale human pop from palce to place, have diff foot prints. -canadas footprint is high -most ppl in the workld live in developing economies.
Per capita environmental impacts
“Ecological footprint” Rees (UBC) & Wackernagel Area of productive land required to support each person with resources to sustain their affluence. – - food, transportation, manufactured goods, energy, etc. – - absorb by-products, wastes
ecological footproint is per person. include thinfs like food, energy consuption, etc
22
I=PAT ecuation
Ecological Footprint
I = PAT where I = environmental impact, P = population size, A = affluence, and T = technology Environmental scarcity arises in three ways: 1. demand-induced scarcity is a result of population growth in a region, 2. supply-induced scarcity arises from the degradation of resources, and 3. structural scarcity occurs because of the seriously unequal social distribution of these resources. These three types of scarcity are not mutually exclusive; they often occur simultaneously and interact.
very large pop size, impact will be greater. if sociate is very afluent, then it tends to consume more in order to sustein. Therefore sociates that are afluent, impact will be greater -Tecnology can use to facility increasis in consuption, or it can decrease impact. all 3 can operate at once, or not.
(Homer-Dixon, T. 1994. Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases. International Security. 19: 7.)
23
Ecological footprint
24
Page 8 8
-when capital is gone, no more interst -Demand too high and not nought supply
Ecological footprint population
Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China Colombia Costa Rica France Germany United States
footprint
(in 1997) in [ha/cap] 35,405,000 3.9 18,550,000 9.0 167,046,000 3.1 30,101,000 7.7 1,247,315,000 1.2 36,200,000 2.0 3,575,000 2.5 58,433,000 4.1 81,845,000 5.3 268,189,000
10.3
available ecol. deficit (if capacity negative) in [ha/cap] in [ha/cap] 4.6 0.7 14.0 5.0 6.7 3.6 9.6 1.9 0.8 -0.4 4.1 2.1 2.5 0.0 4.2 0.1 1.9 -3.4 6.7
-3.6
total fp
total av.cap
[km2] [km2] 1,380,795 1,628,630 1,669,500 2,597,000 5,178,426 11,192,082 2,317,777 2,889,696 14,967,780 9,978,520 724,000 1,484,200 89,375 89,375 2,395,753 2,454,186 4,337,785 1,555,055 27,623,467
17,968,663
Two additional beers per person in China would consume the entire Norwegian grain harvest. Per capita grain production peaked in 1984 and has dropped 10% since.
Note: At 11am this morning, US population size was
~303,311,361
25
-a very small proportion of worlds pop does a very high consuptopn.
-Deficit here means that we are going into capital and drawing that down (ex fewer numbers of trees that there used to be..regeions being degraded... fisheries becoming depleated..) Things disapearing thru time. -Things important to understand reduced comsuption bby pipulations that are very large would change the whole world resources supply and consuption. (SMALL POPULATIONS.bolivians changing life style, but thers few bolivians,, at a global spcale it is a very small pop... locally will be large. LARGE POPULATION:if indian changing resource consuption, since that pop is that large,... what you would see is that the whole world resources supply changes in a large way) -Roughly just about 1 and 3 ppl in the world lives in either china or india (developing countries). If theres high resource consupton in these contries.. huge problem. This issues yields pretty serius consequences. -Undevelop countrys can develop like ex USA did cuz otherwise we are screeweeed :O -In terms of pop growth still continues in some develop countries to a significant degree -
Ecological footprint
IMPORTANT CONCEPT: Falacy of nederlands -no natual space let, their afluence is vast, consuption rate high, amount of space that they require given their pop size is like 3x the space the actually have.
In Canada: 5.3 ha / person Energy, fossil fues production: 2.9 ha Food: 1.1 ha Forestry, resource extraction: 0.9 ha Built-up areas (buildings, transportation): 0.2 ha
-you can measure how envaromental impact looks like -you can try to reduce it without affecting quality of life|
The United States consumes more energy than India, the Middle East, South America, Africa, South East Asia and Oceania combined (3.1 billion people). About 20% of the world’s environmental impact comes from the USA. This is expected to drop to about 17.5% of total impact by 2015. (Rosa et al. 2007) 26
-Ecological foot print graph. -with represents how many ppl in terms of that many ppl with that ecoloical foot print. -this graph shows that diff pop has diff footfrints
Ecological footprint
27
Page 9 9
Consequences of human population growth
-Impacts in form of pollution. Ex: central valley in california, thers alrge mechanised alfriculture and fertilizer applied...these are pollutant, or atphospheric (sometiems you can see it from space).\
Pollution Over-exploitation of resources Habitat loss, extinctions
-scattered graph is about endgareded birds..
4
Bénin
3
Malawi Niger
per country
Proportion des espèces d'oiseaux Endangered bird species menacée d'extinction
From Kerr & Currie 1995
2 1 0
-1 -2 -3 -2
Indonésie -1
0
1
2
Log (Human population density) log Densité de la population humaine 28
Ecological footprint
Resource use in LDCs is very small relative to MDCs
er ic Ja a pa n Eu ro M idd pe le E n Ea s ti S o re W t ut h A o r ld m er ica Ch As in a ia (o th er ) Af ri c a
0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0
No
r th
Am
m e g a B T U / p e rs
If the entire world lived according to North American consumption standards, 3 planet Earths would be required to support the population.
29
-satellite images. -exponential change.. might look fine today, but it can get bad -
Human footprint and the last of the wild
83% of the wilderness has been modified for human uses. 98% of potential agricultural land is already in use.
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The last of the wild
Even areas that appear “wild” are affected by human activities. E.g. 98% of the variation in extinction rates in parks in Ghana result from how big the parks are and human population density within 50km of the park.
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Global gap analysis: what species are excluded from protected areas (parks)?
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Using parks to conserve biodiversity
protected areas prove that there can be change. -ex no finishing permited in some marine areas, fish pop comes back
Kerr and Cihlar 2004, Ecol. App.
-if you but this in the right spots you can protect alot of species. -
thesed are the number of places are species are in danger
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“The wrong time for climate change”
-conservations strategies are not dynamic
Butterfly species richness change between 1880-1949 and 1950-2000 epochs
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Climate change is exerting substantial negative effects and these will increasingly dominate over the next few decades. Read the summary of the Stern Report.
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hockey stick graph. -
started to go up with industrial revelution
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this is the impact of carbon from industrial burning
solar radiants. -making the air clenaer, by removing black carbn reduces climate change -oceans are turning into acid.
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-numbers are big and getting bigger.
Freshwater supplies
CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMARY -cliamte change is real -currently casued by humans LOOK AT THIS SLIDE, NOT IN NOTES.
In 2000, >500 million people lived in 31 countries under water stress. By 2025, >3 billion people will live in 48 such countries (State of the World Report, 2001)
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Maximum carrying capacity for humans? Current population: > 6 Billion An optimistic (i.e. too high) guess, by Cohen 1995: 15 billion??
-we surpassed 6 billion -some people have argued that you can manage 15 billion, hard to imagine how that would work, hard to manage in long term. Whos gona be rick whos gonna be poor. -stability is a big issue. -
At what economic level? What about equity? With what kind of stability? Biological impacts (which are harbingers of consequences for humans)?
Probably level off beyond 9 billion
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