Blakeley - Balancing Deterrence AWS
Balancing Deterrence
Katherine Blakeley
December 9, 2015
Current modernization plans Deterrence posture Investments
Timing of investments Impacts on balance of DOD budget
Implications
Current modernization plans
?
?
Current modernization plans
? ?
Current modernization plans
? ? ?
Budgetary Impacts 25000
20000 Reactor-DoE - Reactor-DoE - Ohio Replacement
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Ohio Replacement
15000
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Minuteman Replacement (GBSD) Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRSO
10000
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRS-B 5000
0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39
Budgetary Impacts 25000
20000 Reactor-DoE - Reactor-DoE - Ohio Replacement
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Ohio Replacement
15000
$11B
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Minuteman Replacement (GBSD) Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRSO
10000
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRS-B 5000
$8.6B
0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39
35000
30000
Budgetary Impacts 25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0 Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39
Budgetary Impacts
Budgetary Impacts
Budgetary Impacts 25000
20000 Reactor-DoE - Reactor-DoE - Ohio Replacement
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Ohio Replacement
15000
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Minuteman Replacement (GBSD) Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRSO
10000
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRS-B 5000
0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39
Budgetary Impacts
IMPLICATIONS Alignment of programs allows for assessment of the entire nuclear portfolio: Air Sea Ground Weapons
IMPLICATIONS •Cost
IMPLICATIONS •Cost •Lifespan
IMPLICATIONS •Cost •Lifespan •Deterrence Posture
IMPLICATIONS •Cost •Lifespan •Deterrence Posture •Strategic Stability
IMPLICATIONS •Cost •Lifespan •Deterrence Posture •Strategic Stability •Arms Control/Non-proliferation Goals
Questions?
Katherine Blakeley
December 9, 2015
Current modernization plans Deterrence posture Investments
Timing of investments Impacts on balance of DOD budget
Implications
Current modernization plans
?
?
Current modernization plans
? ?
Current modernization plans
? ? ?
Budgetary Impacts 25000
20000 Reactor-DoE - Reactor-DoE - Ohio Replacement
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Ohio Replacement
15000
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Minuteman Replacement (GBSD) Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRSO
10000
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRS-B 5000
0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39
Budgetary Impacts 25000
20000 Reactor-DoE - Reactor-DoE - Ohio Replacement
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Ohio Replacement
15000
$11B
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Minuteman Replacement (GBSD) Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRSO
10000
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRS-B 5000
$8.6B
0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39
35000
30000
Budgetary Impacts 25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0 Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39
Budgetary Impacts
Budgetary Impacts
Budgetary Impacts 25000
20000 Reactor-DoE - Reactor-DoE - Ohio Replacement
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Ohio Replacement
15000
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - Minuteman Replacement (GBSD) Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRSO
10000
Non-MILPERS costs - Procurement - LRS-B 5000
0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39
Budgetary Impacts
IMPLICATIONS Alignment of programs allows for assessment of the entire nuclear portfolio: Air Sea Ground Weapons
IMPLICATIONS •Cost
IMPLICATIONS •Cost •Lifespan
IMPLICATIONS •Cost •Lifespan •Deterrence Posture
IMPLICATIONS •Cost •Lifespan •Deterrence Posture •Strategic Stability
IMPLICATIONS •Cost •Lifespan •Deterrence Posture •Strategic Stability •Arms Control/Non-proliferation Goals
Questions?
