Blue title slide
China Energy Future: Pollution versus Energy Security Fuqiang Yang Natural Resources Defense Council 16/11/2015
Net Importation of Energy Types, 2014
Crude Oil 308 M tons
Coal 285 M tons
Natural Gas 59 B cm
~8%
32.2%
Coefficient 59.5%
Source：China Coal Association, and CNPC Research Institute, 2015
Coal’s Contribution to Air Pollutant Emissions
CO2 甲烷 Methane 黑碳 Black carbon
Soot
烟粉尘
直接燃烧 Direct combustion 伴随煤炭使用的重点行业 Related emissions from major
NOx
coal-using industries SO2
Primary 一次PM2.5 Hg 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Coal Consumption and Air Pollution Show Spatial Consistency Distribution of National Coal Consumption
• Within the eastern coal-consuming regions, the high intensity coal-consuming areas overlap with areas with extreme smog
Satellite imagery of national distribution of PM2.5 concentrations
Calculating the True Cost of Coal, 2012 Sector
Category
Sub-category
Coal production
Mining coal resources Water resources
Resources loss
True Cost Of Coal Ecosystems
3.7% of GDP in 2012
Coal production 煤炭生产 22%
Agriculture ecosystem
2.00
Coal transportation 煤炭运输
Coal consumption
Miner deaths
0.23
Direct loss from occupational disease
0.14
Indirect loss from occupational disease
0.21 66.34 23.6
Accidents, noise, environment, etc.
2.75
Waterway transport Accidents, noise, environment, etc. Sub-Total
1.48 27.8
Human health
8.7%
Acid Rain Solid Waste Waste Water Climate Change Total Cost
19.30
Accidents, noise, environment, etc.
Rail transport
68.9%
5.81
Sub-Total Coal transportation Highway transport
27.65
Water pollution
Soil erosion and ecological degradation
Human health
Coal consumption 煤炭消费
Water resource depletion
Yuan / Ton 11.00
Ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer excess deaths Agriculture, ecologic system Soil, underground water, Ecology Ecologic system, underground water Social, Economic and environment
166.2
30.32 4.40 7.56 160.8 463.42
REALIZE HARMONIOUS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S ECONOMY, SOCIETY, AND ENVIRONMENT RESOURCE CONSERVATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION REDUCE COAL’S SHARE IN PRIMARY ENERGY TO BE
57%
PUBLIC HEALTH GHG REDUCTION
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ENERGY TRANSITION
Ecological Resources Constraints: Coal Consumption and PM2.5 Pollutants National PM2.5 Pollutant Reduction Targets Units: micrograms/ cm.3
2013
72
2017
60
2020
45
2030
30
2040
20
2050
15
Red Line
10
Source: Chinese Coal Cap,2015
2020 NATIONAL COAL CONSUMPTION CAP: 2.72 BILLION TCE 35 3.5 3.02
30 3.0
BTCE
25 2.5
2020 national coal consumption cap
Reference Scenario Coal Cap Scenario
2.72
20 2.0
Energy-Saving Scenario
2°C Scenario
Non-fossil energy’s share Oil’s share Coal reduction targets National coal production cap
15 1.5 10 1.0 5 0.5 00
2015
2020 total energy consumption Coal’s share in primary energy Natural gas’s share
2020
2025
2030
2040
China Coal Consumption Scenarios, 2015-2050
2050
2.72 BTCE (3.8 billion tons) 4.74 BTCE 57.4% 10% 15.2% 17.4% 300 MTCE (420 Mn tons) 3.7 Bn tons
COAL CONTROL’S SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CO-BENEFITS By 2020, coal’s share in power generation capacity reduce to
5.21 Billion tons
52%
Water savings, in 2020
+1.5 Million Green jobs (net) created, in 2020
TOTAL BENEFITS BY 2020
334.4
-71,000 Billion Yuan
Fewer premature deaths in 2020
Emissions Reduction from Sources, in 2020: SO2
5,590,000 tons NOx 1,920,000 tons Particles 900,000 tons
980,000,000 tons Avoided carbon emissions, in 2020
CONSUMPTION OF DIFFERENT FUELS , 2015-2050
50 40 30
100 million tce
60
Total Non Fossil
20
Natural Gas
10
Oil Coal
0
2015
2020
2025
Coal
Oil
2030
2040
Natural Gas
2050
Non Fossil
Total
SHARES OF DIFFERENT FUELS IN TOTAL ENERGY MIX, 2015-2050 0.700 0.600 0.500
%
0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000
2015
2020 Coal
Oil
2025 Natural Gas
2030
2040
Non Fossil
2050
Develop Natural Gas Market to Replace Coal Daqing Crude Oil
Natural Gas for Industrial Users
Qinhuangdao port Shanxi Thermal Coal
China coal, oil, and natural gas price trends, May 2011 – May 2015
Power Sector Planning, 2015-2030 Installation (GW)
Generation（TWh）
2015
2020
2025
2030
2015
2020
2025
2030
Hydro
293
350
395
440
1025
1225
1382
1540
PS
23.35
70
110
150
18
560
88
120
Coal
868
970.6
955
925
4123
4717
4643
4485
Gas
61.67
100
150
200
161
300
450
700
Nuclear
28.64
58
125
190
164
406
875
1330
Wind
110
235 (250)
355
440
179
470
710
880
PV
36.5
110 (150)
210
300
32
176
336
480
CSP
-
10
20
30
-
35
70
105
Biomass
11
14
17
20
49
63
76
90
Total
1432
1917(1973)
2337
2695
5735
7317
8425
9450
Non Fossil (%)
0.351
0.442(0.457)
0.527
0.583
0.256
0.401
0.420
0.481
Establish Strong Public Governance Capacity Through Energy system revolution ENERGY SYSTEM REVOLUTION Revise the “Coal Law” and “Electricity Law.” Establish “Energy Law,” “Climate Change Law” and other relevant laws. Decentralize government authorized power. Establish a Ministry of Energy and Climate Change, and a National Energy Regulatory Commission Establish a co-coordinated energy/coal cap governing body to guide energy/coal cap work
GlobalDemand Energy Demand Growth Shift to Asia Global Energy Growth Shift to Asia Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
Share of global growth 2012-2035 Latin America
Eurasia Europe 1 370 United States
Africa Japan 440
4 060
2 240
Middle 1 050 East Brazil 480
1 030 Africa
1 540
5% 4% 8%
China
1 710
Eurasia OECD
1 000
Southeast Asia
Middle East
8% 10%
65%
India Non-OECD Asia
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
©
OECD/IEA 2013
Reduce Coal Demand Through International Energy Cooperation ESTABLISH AN ASIAN ENERGY SECURITY AND COOPERATION AGENCY
Borrow from current experience in energy governance to uphold stability in energy markets Create a balanced, open, transparent, and mutually beneficial platform to benefit suppliers and consumers Promote trade in clean, efficient, low-carbon technologies and development of clean energy
Net Importation of Energy Types, 2014
Crude Oil 308 M tons
Coal 285 M tons
Natural Gas 59 B cm
~8%
32.2%
Coefficient 59.5%
Source：China Coal Association, and CNPC Research Institute, 2015
Coal’s Contribution to Air Pollutant Emissions
CO2 甲烷 Methane 黑碳 Black carbon
Soot
烟粉尘
直接燃烧 Direct combustion 伴随煤炭使用的重点行业 Related emissions from major
NOx
coal-using industries SO2
Primary 一次PM2.5 Hg 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Coal Consumption and Air Pollution Show Spatial Consistency Distribution of National Coal Consumption
• Within the eastern coal-consuming regions, the high intensity coal-consuming areas overlap with areas with extreme smog
Satellite imagery of national distribution of PM2.5 concentrations
Calculating the True Cost of Coal, 2012 Sector
Category
Sub-category
Coal production
Mining coal resources Water resources
Resources loss
True Cost Of Coal Ecosystems
3.7% of GDP in 2012
Coal production 煤炭生产 22%
Agriculture ecosystem
2.00
Coal transportation 煤炭运输
Coal consumption
Miner deaths
0.23
Direct loss from occupational disease
0.14
Indirect loss from occupational disease
0.21 66.34 23.6
Accidents, noise, environment, etc.
2.75
Waterway transport Accidents, noise, environment, etc. Sub-Total
1.48 27.8
Human health
8.7%
Acid Rain Solid Waste Waste Water Climate Change Total Cost
19.30
Accidents, noise, environment, etc.
Rail transport
68.9%
5.81
Sub-Total Coal transportation Highway transport
27.65
Water pollution
Soil erosion and ecological degradation
Human health
Coal consumption 煤炭消费
Water resource depletion
Yuan / Ton 11.00
Ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer excess deaths Agriculture, ecologic system Soil, underground water, Ecology Ecologic system, underground water Social, Economic and environment
166.2
30.32 4.40 7.56 160.8 463.42
REALIZE HARMONIOUS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S ECONOMY, SOCIETY, AND ENVIRONMENT RESOURCE CONSERVATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION REDUCE COAL’S SHARE IN PRIMARY ENERGY TO BE
57%
PUBLIC HEALTH GHG REDUCTION
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ENERGY TRANSITION
Ecological Resources Constraints: Coal Consumption and PM2.5 Pollutants National PM2.5 Pollutant Reduction Targets Units: micrograms/ cm.3
2013
72
2017
60
2020
45
2030
30
2040
20
2050
15
Red Line
10
Source: Chinese Coal Cap,2015
2020 NATIONAL COAL CONSUMPTION CAP: 2.72 BILLION TCE 35 3.5 3.02
30 3.0
BTCE
25 2.5
2020 national coal consumption cap
Reference Scenario Coal Cap Scenario
2.72
20 2.0
Energy-Saving Scenario
2°C Scenario
Non-fossil energy’s share Oil’s share Coal reduction targets National coal production cap
15 1.5 10 1.0 5 0.5 00
2015
2020 total energy consumption Coal’s share in primary energy Natural gas’s share
2020
2025
2030
2040
China Coal Consumption Scenarios, 2015-2050
2050
2.72 BTCE (3.8 billion tons) 4.74 BTCE 57.4% 10% 15.2% 17.4% 300 MTCE (420 Mn tons) 3.7 Bn tons
COAL CONTROL’S SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CO-BENEFITS By 2020, coal’s share in power generation capacity reduce to
5.21 Billion tons
52%
Water savings, in 2020
+1.5 Million Green jobs (net) created, in 2020
TOTAL BENEFITS BY 2020
334.4
-71,000 Billion Yuan
Fewer premature deaths in 2020
Emissions Reduction from Sources, in 2020: SO2
5,590,000 tons NOx 1,920,000 tons Particles 900,000 tons
980,000,000 tons Avoided carbon emissions, in 2020
CONSUMPTION OF DIFFERENT FUELS , 2015-2050
50 40 30
100 million tce
60
Total Non Fossil
20
Natural Gas
10
Oil Coal
0
2015
2020
2025
Coal
Oil
2030
2040
Natural Gas
2050
Non Fossil
Total
SHARES OF DIFFERENT FUELS IN TOTAL ENERGY MIX, 2015-2050 0.700 0.600 0.500
%
0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000
2015
2020 Coal
Oil
2025 Natural Gas
2030
2040
Non Fossil
2050
Develop Natural Gas Market to Replace Coal Daqing Crude Oil
Natural Gas for Industrial Users
Qinhuangdao port Shanxi Thermal Coal
China coal, oil, and natural gas price trends, May 2011 – May 2015
Power Sector Planning, 2015-2030 Installation (GW)
Generation（TWh）
2015
2020
2025
2030
2015
2020
2025
2030
Hydro
293
350
395
440
1025
1225
1382
1540
PS
23.35
70
110
150
18
560
88
120
Coal
868
970.6
955
925
4123
4717
4643
4485
Gas
61.67
100
150
200
161
300
450
700
Nuclear
28.64
58
125
190
164
406
875
1330
Wind
110
235 (250)
355
440
179
470
710
880
PV
36.5
110 (150)
210
300
32
176
336
480
CSP
-
10
20
30
-
35
70
105
Biomass
11
14
17
20
49
63
76
90
Total
1432
1917(1973)
2337
2695
5735
7317
8425
9450
Non Fossil (%)
0.351
0.442(0.457)
0.527
0.583
0.256
0.401
0.420
0.481
Establish Strong Public Governance Capacity Through Energy system revolution ENERGY SYSTEM REVOLUTION Revise the “Coal Law” and “Electricity Law.” Establish “Energy Law,” “Climate Change Law” and other relevant laws. Decentralize government authorized power. Establish a Ministry of Energy and Climate Change, and a National Energy Regulatory Commission Establish a co-coordinated energy/coal cap governing body to guide energy/coal cap work
GlobalDemand Energy Demand Growth Shift to Asia Global Energy Growth Shift to Asia Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
Share of global growth 2012-2035 Latin America
Eurasia Europe 1 370 United States
Africa Japan 440
4 060
2 240
Middle 1 050 East Brazil 480
1 030 Africa
1 540
5% 4% 8%
China
1 710
Eurasia OECD
1 000
Southeast Asia
Middle East
8% 10%
65%
India Non-OECD Asia
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
©
OECD/IEA 2013
Reduce Coal Demand Through International Energy Cooperation ESTABLISH AN ASIAN ENERGY SECURITY AND COOPERATION AGENCY
Borrow from current experience in energy governance to uphold stability in energy markets Create a balanced, open, transparent, and mutually beneficial platform to benefit suppliers and consumers Promote trade in clean, efficient, low-carbon technologies and development of clean energy
