Buy (16E TP Bt6.30) Earnings Review AWS
SVI Buy (16E TP Bt6.30) Earnings Review
Close Bt5.45
Electronic Components
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
February 29, 2016
Weak 4Q15 earnings on seasonality Price Performance (%)
New start with steady future growth SVI’s 2015 net profit was lower than expected, pressured by the impact of quality control of new products conducted by each client after the fire in 2Q15. The quality control is expected to be completed by 2Q16 and the firm should be able to run at full capacity by 2H16. We maintain “BUY” with a target price of Bt6.30/share. 4Q15 normalized profit down seasonally SVI posted weaker‐than‐expected 4Q15 normalized profit of Bt96mn, down 8%YoY and 67%QoQ. The weak earnings were due to seasonality as well as the impact of the test run period for new equipment that was installed to replace the equipment damaged by the fire. Consequently, the firm was unable to run at full capacity, reducing its gross profit margin to 8.4% vs. 14.1% in 3Q15. Sales were down by 14%QoQ to Bt2,041mn on seasonality but up by 58% YoY due to the low base in 4Q14 when the firm managed to operate only two months owing to the fire.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.568
0.484
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
47.9%
‐17.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SVI.BK/SVI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,265.75
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
12.00/346.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
100.00/12.38
52 week High / Low (Bt)
6.05/4.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
13,771.00
NVDR (%)
9.20
Estimated free float (%)
47.18
Beta
0.77
URL
www.svi.co.th
Earnings affected by the fire that occurred in 4Q14 SVI reported 2015 normalized profit of Bt697mn, down by 3%YoY, weaker than both our forecast and the consensus estimate. Sales dropped slightly by 2%. While the utilization rate returned to the level seen before the fire in 2Q15, it remained limited at 60‐70% because the firm had to wait for the new QC results. The increase in fixed costs arising from the new production line and the plant renovation pressured the overall gross profit margin to 11.4% vs. 12.4% reported for last year. Meanwhile, SG&A expense control helped to keep the normalized profit close to the level seen last year. Note that the firm gained compensation amounting to Bt1,600mn to cover the damage from the fire, with the remaining Bt1,100mn to be received in 2016. Maintain 2016E normalized profit growth of 15% We believe 2016 will be a good year for SVI thanks to production expansion by 25% to serve orders that will be placed from 1Q16 onwards. Also, the establishment of a plant in Cambodia for GSP benefits will be beneficial for SVI thanks to the consolidation of SEIDEL’s financial statement in 2Q16 (after completion of the acquisition deal with SEIDEL in Feb‐16) but this has not been included in our current projections. Financials and Valuation
CGR Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273 Ruchanon Chiemkarnkit Assistant analyst [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6268
FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Bt mn) Net profit (Bt mn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Norm. profit (Bt mn) Norm. profit growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 8,295 (304) (0.13) ‐119% 719 47% 0.08 1.61
2015 8,119 2,029 0.90 766% 697 ‐3% 0.11 2.51
2016E 9,405 1,905 0.84 ‐6% 805 15% 0.12 3.12
2017E 10,560 907 0.40 ‐52% 907 13% 0.14 3.38
2018E 11,484 1,031 0.45 14% 1,031 14% 0.16 3.67
FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net Gearing (%)
2014 17.2 12.3 3.4 1.5% 18.2% ‐104%
2015 17.7 12.9 2.2 2.0% 14.9% ‐50%
2016E 15.4 10.0 1.7 2.3% 12.6% ‐65%
2017E 13.6 8.9 1.6 2.6% 12.3% ‐66%
2018E 12.0 7.8 1.5 2.9% 12.9% ‐68%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: SVI’s 4Q15 earnings result Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY
% QoQ
2014
2015
% YoY
Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
1,290 231 110 (1) 21 6 22 (1,380) 0 (1,255) 104 (0.55) 17.93 8.50 8.03 2.04 73.40 0.05 1.61 2.62
2,365 333 306 (1) 19 17 (68) (75) 0 145 288 0.06 14.07 12.94 12.16 2.32 221.59 0.03 2.31 5.67
2,041 172 137 (1) 29 (16) (69) 445 0 472 96 0.21 8.42 6.72 4.69 2.88 77.04 0.03 2.51 2.05
58.2 (25.7) 25.1 2.7 36.5 (369.2) (416.5) 132.2 n.m. 137.6 (7.6) 137.6
(13.7) (48.3) (55.1) (4.9) 53.9 (194.1) 1.8 690.2 n.m. 226.1 (66.7) 226.1
8,295 1,029 806 (4) 110 (13) 0 (1,023) 0 (304) 719 (0.13) 12.41 9.72 8.67 2.04 151.11 0.05 1.61 18.21
8,119 926 765 (6) 102 15 (152) 1,484 0 2,029 697 0.90 11.40 9.42 8.59 2.88 97.70 0.03 2.51 14.94
(2.1) (10.1) (5.2) 44.7 (7.3) 211.1 n.m. 245.1 n.m. 766.5 (3.0) 766.5
Source: KT ZMICO Research
รูปที่ 3: PER (average 14.8x) and PBV band (average 2.10x) PER(X)
PBV(X)
18
2.1
Avg.
ที่มา: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
1.3
Mar-15
11
Jun-15
-3.0 S.D. 1.5
Feb-15
-2.0 S.D.
1.7
12
Jan-15
-1.0 S.D.
1.9
May-15
13
+1.0 S.D.
Apr-15
14
+2.0 S.D.
2.3
Mar-15
15
2.5
Feb-15
16
+2.0 S.D. +1.5.0 S.D. +1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1.0 S.D. -1.5.0 S.D. -2.0 S.D.
+3.0 S.D.
Jan-15
17
2.7
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates Extra Items Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
8,006 (7,233) 774 (347) 723 296 427 (19) 67 476 14 ‐ 1,106 ‐ 1,623 0.72 0.72 489 0.22
8,295 (7,266) 1,029 (402) 806 179 627 (4) 110 732 (13) ‐ (1,023) ‐ (304) (0.13) (0.13) 719 0.32
8,119 (7,194) 926 (339) 765 178 587 (6) 102 682 15 ‐ 1,484 ‐ 2,029 0.90 0.90 697 0.31
9,405 (8,236) 1,169 (410) 986 226 759 (5) 75 829 (25) ‐ 1,100 ‐ 1,905 0.84 0.84 805 0.35
10,560 (9,245) 1,315 (459) 1,117 261 856 (5) 84 935 (28) ‐ ‐ ‐ 907 0.40 0.40 907 0.40
11,484 (10,009) 1,475 (498) 1,272 295 976 (6) 92 1,063 (32) ‐ ‐ ‐ 1,031 0.45 0.45 1,031 0.45
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
1,949 1,960 1,191 ‐ 1,315 77 6,492 73 58 2,243 2,261 4,249 6,492
3,959 759 724 ‐ 918 71 6,431 89 86 2,782 2,266 3,649 6,431
2,992 1,637 1,030 ‐ 1,882 212 7,752 79 89 2,071 2,266 5,681 7,752
4,777 1,546 1,128 ‐ 2,603 127 10,181 85 81 2,712 2,266 7,060 9,773
5,251 1,736 1,266 ‐ 2,703 127 11,084 83 89 3,025 2,266 7,650 10,675
5,832 1,888 1,371 ‐ 2,769 128 11,988 84 91 3,260 2,266 8,320 11,580
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
1,610 (214) 296 (69) 1,624 (75) (415) (490) (646) 188 (0) 65 (393) 741 1,134 0.50
(291) 2,159 179 554 2,601 (96) (1,931) (2,027) ‐ 10 (521) (27) (538) 37 574 0.25
2,029 (287) 178 (2,029) (109) (1,011) 1,337 326 (7) ‐ (244) ‐ (251) (33) 218 0.10
1,905 (222) 226 720 2,629 (561) (1,337) (1,898) (2) ‐ (281) ‐ (283) 447 731 0.32
907 ‐ 261 (21) 1,147 (361) ‐ (361) 6 ‐ (317) ‐ (311) 474 786 0.35
1,031 ‐ 295 (25) 1,301 (361) ‐ (361) 2 ‐ (361) ‐ (358) 582 940 0.41
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
3.9% 26.3% 11.6% 9.7% 9.0% 5.3% 20.3% 6.1% ‐2.8%
3.6% 11.5% ‐118.6% 12.4% 9.7% 7.6% ‐3.7% 8.7% 1.8%
‐2.1% ‐5.2% ‐766.5% 11.4% 9.4% 7.2% 25.0% 8.6% ‐2.2%
15.8% 28.9% ‐6.2% 12.4% 10.5% 8.1% 20.3% 8.6% 3.0%
12.3% 13.3% ‐52.4% 12.4% 10.6% 8.1% 8.6% 8.6% 3.0%
8.7% 13.9% 13.6% 12.8% 11.1% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 3.0%
CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt)
PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Close Bt5.45
Electronic Components
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
February 29, 2016
Weak 4Q15 earnings on seasonality Price Performance (%)
New start with steady future growth SVI’s 2015 net profit was lower than expected, pressured by the impact of quality control of new products conducted by each client after the fire in 2Q15. The quality control is expected to be completed by 2Q16 and the firm should be able to run at full capacity by 2H16. We maintain “BUY” with a target price of Bt6.30/share. 4Q15 normalized profit down seasonally SVI posted weaker‐than‐expected 4Q15 normalized profit of Bt96mn, down 8%YoY and 67%QoQ. The weak earnings were due to seasonality as well as the impact of the test run period for new equipment that was installed to replace the equipment damaged by the fire. Consequently, the firm was unable to run at full capacity, reducing its gross profit margin to 8.4% vs. 14.1% in 3Q15. Sales were down by 14%QoQ to Bt2,041mn on seasonality but up by 58% YoY due to the low base in 4Q14 when the firm managed to operate only two months owing to the fire.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.568
0.484
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
47.9%
‐17.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SVI.BK/SVI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,265.75
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
12.00/346.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
100.00/12.38
52 week High / Low (Bt)
6.05/4.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
13,771.00
NVDR (%)
9.20
Estimated free float (%)
47.18
Beta
0.77
URL
www.svi.co.th
Earnings affected by the fire that occurred in 4Q14 SVI reported 2015 normalized profit of Bt697mn, down by 3%YoY, weaker than both our forecast and the consensus estimate. Sales dropped slightly by 2%. While the utilization rate returned to the level seen before the fire in 2Q15, it remained limited at 60‐70% because the firm had to wait for the new QC results. The increase in fixed costs arising from the new production line and the plant renovation pressured the overall gross profit margin to 11.4% vs. 12.4% reported for last year. Meanwhile, SG&A expense control helped to keep the normalized profit close to the level seen last year. Note that the firm gained compensation amounting to Bt1,600mn to cover the damage from the fire, with the remaining Bt1,100mn to be received in 2016. Maintain 2016E normalized profit growth of 15% We believe 2016 will be a good year for SVI thanks to production expansion by 25% to serve orders that will be placed from 1Q16 onwards. Also, the establishment of a plant in Cambodia for GSP benefits will be beneficial for SVI thanks to the consolidation of SEIDEL’s financial statement in 2Q16 (after completion of the acquisition deal with SEIDEL in Feb‐16) but this has not been included in our current projections. Financials and Valuation
CGR Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273 Ruchanon Chiemkarnkit Assistant analyst [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6268
FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Bt mn) Net profit (Bt mn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Norm. profit (Bt mn) Norm. profit growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 8,295 (304) (0.13) ‐119% 719 47% 0.08 1.61
2015 8,119 2,029 0.90 766% 697 ‐3% 0.11 2.51
2016E 9,405 1,905 0.84 ‐6% 805 15% 0.12 3.12
2017E 10,560 907 0.40 ‐52% 907 13% 0.14 3.38
2018E 11,484 1,031 0.45 14% 1,031 14% 0.16 3.67
FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net Gearing (%)
2014 17.2 12.3 3.4 1.5% 18.2% ‐104%
2015 17.7 12.9 2.2 2.0% 14.9% ‐50%
2016E 15.4 10.0 1.7 2.3% 12.6% ‐65%
2017E 13.6 8.9 1.6 2.6% 12.3% ‐66%
2018E 12.0 7.8 1.5 2.9% 12.9% ‐68%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: SVI’s 4Q15 earnings result Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY
% QoQ
2014
2015
% YoY
Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
1,290 231 110 (1) 21 6 22 (1,380) 0 (1,255) 104 (0.55) 17.93 8.50 8.03 2.04 73.40 0.05 1.61 2.62
2,365 333 306 (1) 19 17 (68) (75) 0 145 288 0.06 14.07 12.94 12.16 2.32 221.59 0.03 2.31 5.67
2,041 172 137 (1) 29 (16) (69) 445 0 472 96 0.21 8.42 6.72 4.69 2.88 77.04 0.03 2.51 2.05
58.2 (25.7) 25.1 2.7 36.5 (369.2) (416.5) 132.2 n.m. 137.6 (7.6) 137.6
(13.7) (48.3) (55.1) (4.9) 53.9 (194.1) 1.8 690.2 n.m. 226.1 (66.7) 226.1
8,295 1,029 806 (4) 110 (13) 0 (1,023) 0 (304) 719 (0.13) 12.41 9.72 8.67 2.04 151.11 0.05 1.61 18.21
8,119 926 765 (6) 102 15 (152) 1,484 0 2,029 697 0.90 11.40 9.42 8.59 2.88 97.70 0.03 2.51 14.94
(2.1) (10.1) (5.2) 44.7 (7.3) 211.1 n.m. 245.1 n.m. 766.5 (3.0) 766.5
Source: KT ZMICO Research
รูปที่ 3: PER (average 14.8x) and PBV band (average 2.10x) PER(X)
PBV(X)
18
2.1
Avg.
ที่มา: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
1.3
Mar-15
11
Jun-15
-3.0 S.D. 1.5
Feb-15
-2.0 S.D.
1.7
12
Jan-15
-1.0 S.D.
1.9
May-15
13
+1.0 S.D.
Apr-15
14
+2.0 S.D.
2.3
Mar-15
15
2.5
Feb-15
16
+2.0 S.D. +1.5.0 S.D. +1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1.0 S.D. -1.5.0 S.D. -2.0 S.D.
+3.0 S.D.
Jan-15
17
2.7
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates Extra Items Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
8,006 (7,233) 774 (347) 723 296 427 (19) 67 476 14 ‐ 1,106 ‐ 1,623 0.72 0.72 489 0.22
8,295 (7,266) 1,029 (402) 806 179 627 (4) 110 732 (13) ‐ (1,023) ‐ (304) (0.13) (0.13) 719 0.32
8,119 (7,194) 926 (339) 765 178 587 (6) 102 682 15 ‐ 1,484 ‐ 2,029 0.90 0.90 697 0.31
9,405 (8,236) 1,169 (410) 986 226 759 (5) 75 829 (25) ‐ 1,100 ‐ 1,905 0.84 0.84 805 0.35
10,560 (9,245) 1,315 (459) 1,117 261 856 (5) 84 935 (28) ‐ ‐ ‐ 907 0.40 0.40 907 0.40
11,484 (10,009) 1,475 (498) 1,272 295 976 (6) 92 1,063 (32) ‐ ‐ ‐ 1,031 0.45 0.45 1,031 0.45
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
1,949 1,960 1,191 ‐ 1,315 77 6,492 73 58 2,243 2,261 4,249 6,492
3,959 759 724 ‐ 918 71 6,431 89 86 2,782 2,266 3,649 6,431
2,992 1,637 1,030 ‐ 1,882 212 7,752 79 89 2,071 2,266 5,681 7,752
4,777 1,546 1,128 ‐ 2,603 127 10,181 85 81 2,712 2,266 7,060 9,773
5,251 1,736 1,266 ‐ 2,703 127 11,084 83 89 3,025 2,266 7,650 10,675
5,832 1,888 1,371 ‐ 2,769 128 11,988 84 91 3,260 2,266 8,320 11,580
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
1,610 (214) 296 (69) 1,624 (75) (415) (490) (646) 188 (0) 65 (393) 741 1,134 0.50
(291) 2,159 179 554 2,601 (96) (1,931) (2,027) ‐ 10 (521) (27) (538) 37 574 0.25
2,029 (287) 178 (2,029) (109) (1,011) 1,337 326 (7) ‐ (244) ‐ (251) (33) 218 0.10
1,905 (222) 226 720 2,629 (561) (1,337) (1,898) (2) ‐ (281) ‐ (283) 447 731 0.32
907 ‐ 261 (21) 1,147 (361) ‐ (361) 6 ‐ (317) ‐ (311) 474 786 0.35
1,031 ‐ 295 (25) 1,301 (361) ‐ (361) 2 ‐ (361) ‐ (358) 582 940 0.41
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
3.9% 26.3% 11.6% 9.7% 9.0% 5.3% 20.3% 6.1% ‐2.8%
3.6% 11.5% ‐118.6% 12.4% 9.7% 7.6% ‐3.7% 8.7% 1.8%
‐2.1% ‐5.2% ‐766.5% 11.4% 9.4% 7.2% 25.0% 8.6% ‐2.2%
15.8% 28.9% ‐6.2% 12.4% 10.5% 8.1% 20.3% 8.6% 3.0%
12.3% 13.3% ‐52.4% 12.4% 10.6% 8.1% 8.6% 8.6% 3.0%
8.7% 13.9% 13.6% 12.8% 11.1% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 3.0%
CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt)
PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
