Cement Dispatches for August 2016 - Aljazira Capital
Cement Dispatches for August 2016 September 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | August 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
-40.0%
Dec-15
1,000
Oct-15
-20.0%
Nov-15
2,000
Aug-15
0.0%
Sep-15
3,000
Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research
Share in Dispatches by Regions Regions
Share in Dispatches Share in Inventory Aug-15 Aug-16 8M-2016 Aug-15 Aug-16
Central Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region Northern Region
28.23% 30.30% 28.80% 30.04% 28.73% 22.39% 21.16% 22.01% 17.08% 17.02% 21.10% 19.85% 19.21% 18.01% 14.91% 16.55% 17.24% 17.90% 21.57% 23.94% 11.73% 11.45% 12.08% 13.31% 15.40%
Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research
Key Performance: Data/Ratios Market Cap(bn) P/E (TTM) P/B Dividend Yield: YTD (%) ROA ROE
94.4 8.8x 1.6x 10.2% -20.2% 12.5% 16.5%
Inventories Level 14%
30,000
12%
25,000
10% 8%
20,000
6%
15,000
4% 2%
10,000
0%
5,000
Aug-16
Jul-16
-4%
Jun-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
May-16
-2%
0
Nov-15
Market Share: Tabuk cement showed an improvement in its market share as it increased from 1.8% in August-2015 to 2.5% in August-2016. Moreover, AlJouf cement increased its market share from 2.6% to 3.6%. On the other hand, Northern cement company market share declined to 2.6% in August-2016 as compared to 4.1% in August-2015, followed by Najran cement as it declined from 7.1% in July 2015 to 5.4% in July 2016.
20.0%
4,000
Aug-15
Clinker inventory covers five months of demand: Clinker inventory reaches historical high at 25.3mn tons showing an increase of 6.0%MoM and 12.4%YoY due to weak demand and capacity expansion since end of 2015. Overall clinker production of the sector posted an average YTD decline of 1.6%, reflecting cautious steps taken to control costs and the impact of low demand. Aljouf Cement showed a significant increase in clinker inventory by 258.2%MoM, followed by AlSafwa Cement which showed an increase of 35.6%MoM. In addition, Al-Qassim and Najran cement witnessed a decline of 11.1%MoM and 5.0%MoM respectively.
40.0%
5,000
Sep-15
On MoM basis, all cement companies showed growth in dispatches, with Najran cement showing the highest growth of 56.6%MoM followed by Tabuk cement with growth of 51.4%MoM. Whereas, Saudi cement and Eastern cement showed the lowest growth of 22.3%MoM and 30.9%MoM respectively. On YoY basis, Tabuk cement showed an increase of 30.2%YoY in cement dispatches, followed by Aljuof cement with a growth of 24.4%YoY. However, Northern cement and Najran cement witnessed a fall of 42.6%YoY and 31.2%YoY respectively.
60.0%
6,000
Thousand Tonne
Overview: the MoM growth is attributed to the impact of Ramadan and Eid holiday in June/ July that resulted in slowdown in construction. For the 8M-2016, Cement sales decreased from 40.8mn tons in 2015 to 39.3mn tons in 2016 depicting a decline of 3.7%YoY, primarily driven by decrease in dispatches during the months of June and July. Nevertheless, despite challenges, we expect sector cement demand to show sign of recovery in Q4-2016 due to seasonal impact in 3Q-2016(Eid Holidays).
Dispatches Growth
Thousand Tonne
Cement Dispatches: grew 40.8%MoM, but declined 9.9%YoY; Clinker inventory reaches historical high: According to the data released by Yamamah cement Co, cement dispatches for the month of August-2016 stood at 4.41mn tons, as compared to 4.90mn tons in August-2015, depicting a decline of 9.9%YoY, and growth of 40.8%MoM.
Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research
Key Data Dispatches Region Central Region
Western Region Eastern Region Southern Region
Northern Region
Jul-16
Aug-15
Aug-16
"M/M %
% change Y/Y
8M-15
Yamamah Cement City Cement Qassim Cement Riyadh Cement Total Yanbu Cement Arabian Cement AlSafwa Cement Total Saudi Cement Eastern Cement Total Najran Cement Southern Cement Total Northern Cement AlJouf Cement Tabuk Cement Hail Cement Total Total
314 169 218 227 928 316 224 95 635 476 136 612 152 432 584 99 118 74 82 373 3,132
508 221 365 288 1,382 547 437 112 1,096 591 219 810 346 687 1,033 202 127 86 159 574 4,895
448 250 316 322 1,336 472 323 138 933 582 178 760 238 637 875 116 158 112 119 505 4,409
42.7% 47.9% 45.0% 41.9% 44.0% 49.4% 44.2% 45.3% 46.9% 22.3% 30.9% 24.2% 56.6% 47.5% 49.8% 17.2% 33.9% 51.4% 45.1% 35.4% 40.8%
-11.8% 13.1% -13.4% 11.8% -3.3% -13.7% -26.1% 23.2% -14.9% -1.5% -18.7% -6.2% -31.2% -7.3% -15.3% -42.6% 24.4% 30.2% -25.2% -12.0% -9.9%
3,828 1,692 2,896 2,183 10599 4,659 3,631 1,272 9561 5,212 2,056 7268 3,015 5,648 8663 1,528 1,114 891 1,151 4,684 40,774
Analyst
Analyst
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
Jassim Al-Jubran
1
Clinker Inventory Levels
Companies
© All rights reserved
Waleed Al-jubayr
% Change 3,799 -0.8% 2,180 28.8% 2,808 -3.0% 2,525 15.7% 11,312 6.7% 4,096 -12.1% 3,272 -9.9% 1,279 0.6% 8,647 -9.6% 5,208 -0.1% 1,821 -11.4% 7,029 -3.3% 2,146 -28.8% 5,399 -4.4% 7,545 -12.9% 1,448 -5.2% 1,320 18.4% 951 6.8% 1,027 -10.8% 4,746 1.3% 39,279 -3.7%
8M-16
Jul-16
Aug-15
3,699 1,070 974 1,606 7,349 3,466 521 163 4,150 4,095 1,753 5,848 2,570 1,110 3,680 468 342 904 1,137 2,851 23,878
3,299 718 973 1,775 6765 3,174 630 42 3846 3,564 1,293 4857 2,738 1,318 4056 906 639 674 778 2,997 22,521
YoY % MoM % Aug-16 Change Change 3,784 14.7% 2.3% 1,017 41.6% -5.0% 866 -11.0% -11.1% 1,604 -9.6% -0.1% 7,271 7.5% -1.1% 3,528 11.2% 1.8% 558 -11.4% 7.1% 221 426.2% 35.6% 4,307 12.0% 3.8% 4,282 20.1% 4.6% 1,775 37.3% 1.3% 6,057 24.7% 3.6% 2,620 -4.3% 1.9% 1,152 -12.6% 3.8% 3,772 -7.0% 2.5% 576 -36.4% 23.1% 1,225 91.7% 258.2% 934 38.6% 3.3% 1,162 49.4% 2.2% 3,897 30.0% 36.7% 25,304 12.4% 6.0%
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
Cement Dispatches for August 2016 September 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | August 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Company News & Events Date of Company Name Announcement
Corporate Event & Announcement
Eastern Cement
23-6-2016
Eastern Province Cement Co. said that the trial run of its cement mill is not yet complete as work is still underway to increase efficiency and reach designed production capacity. The trial phase is expected to be completed during the second half of 2016 and there is no financial impact expected from the delay, the company added.
Yamama Cement
28-6-2016
Yamama Cement Co. has awarded Finland’s Wartsila a SAR 480 million contract to build, operate and maintain a private 133-megawatt power station. Under the five-year agreement, the construction work will start in September, and the entire project is scheduled for completion by June 1, 2019.
Arabian Cement
18-7-2016
Arabian Cement Company’s board of directors has recommended the distribution of a 20 percent cash dividend (SAR 2 per share) for the first half of 2016, the company said in a bourse statement.
Yamama Cement
21-7-2016
Yamama Cement Co.’s board of directors has recommended paying shareholders a 2.5 percent cash dividend (SAR 0.25 per share) for Q2-2016
Southern Cement
25-7-2016
Southern Province Cement Co. has recommended the distribution of a 25 percent cash dividend (SAR 2.5 per share) for the first half of 2016, the company said in a statement.
26-7-2016
Umm Al-Qura Cement Co. (UACC) said that it has signed an agreement with Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Saudi Aramco) to buy fuel required to operate its Portland cement line, while adding that financial impact cannot be determined at the time.
Umm Al-Qura
The new line’s trial and commercial operations are expected to begin in third quarter. City Cement
26-7-2016
City Cement Co.’s board of directors has recommended the distribution of a 7.5 percent cash dividend at the rate of SAR 0.75 per share for the first half of 2016.
Northern Cement
10-8-2016
The board of directors of Northern Region Cement Co. approved the distribution of a 4.5 percent cash dividend at the rate of SAR 0.45 per share for first half of 2016.
Southern Cement
28-8-2016
Umm Al-Qura
18-9-2016
Southern Province Cement Co. has started trial operations of the second production line at its Bisha plant on August 25, which will continue until it reaches its capacity of 5,000 tons of clinker a day. The cement maker said in a statement to Tadawul that it doesn’t expect any financial impact at this stage, adding that it will announce further developments in due course. Umm Al-Qura Cement Co. started commercial operations at its new Portland cement production line. The cement producer added that it would be difficult to measure the financial impact at this stage due to supply and demand factors. Source: The Saudi Stock Exchange - Tadawul
Market Share in Saudi Cement Sector (%) 15.0% 15%
36.8%
38.1%
25.6% -23.6%
-16.9%
2.9% -17.9%
-
-36.2%
-4.2%
-3.9%
-9.8%
9.3%
Share in dispatches- August 2015
2
30.0% 10.0% -10.0%
Hail
AlSafwa
-30.0%
AlJouf
Northern
-1.0%
City
10%
Tabuk
7%
50.0%
-
Southern
7%
-
1.0%
Arabian
Others
5%
Yanbu
Eastern Cement
11%
-
-
Qassim
Najran cement
-
3.0%
Eastern
4%
-
Saudi
Qassim Cement
5.0%
Yamama
Arabian Cement
7.0%
-2.1%
9.0% 13%
Yamama Cement
Najran
Yanbu Cement
24.1%
11.0%
28%
90.0% 70.0%
Riyadh
Saudi Cement
13.0%
44.6%
Southern Cement
% Change in Share in Dispatches
-50.0%
Share in dispatches- August 2016
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for August 2016 September 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | August 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Inventory Changes
Yamama Cement 80%
4,000
60%
3,500
8%
500
40%
3,000
6%
400
20%
2,500
4%
300
0%
2,000
2%
200
-20%
1,500
0%
1,000
-2%
100
-40%
500
-4%
0
-60%
0
-6%
1,400
40%
1,200
500
20%
1,000
400
0%
700 600
300
-20%
200
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
-60%
Sep-15
0
Aug-15
100
-40%
Hail Cement
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Souhtern Cement
60%
800
% Change
Oct-15
-15%
1,600
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Sep-15
0
80%
900
Aug-15
-10%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Change % 30% 20% 10% 0%
800
-10%
600
-20%
400 200
-30%
0
-40%
Aug-16
Southern Cement
-5%
200
Jul-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
-60%
400
Jun-16
-40%
50
0%
Jun-16
-20%
100
600
Apr -16
150
5%
May-16
0%
200
800
Apr -16
250
15% 10%
May-16
20%
Change %
1,000
Mar -16
300
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
1,200
Mar -16
40%
350
0
60%
-8%
Feb-16
400
80%
-6%
0
Feb-16
% Change
500
Jan-16
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
450
-4%
1,000
Jan-16
500
-2%
1,500
Dec-15
Qassim Cement
0%
2,000
Nov-15
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
-30%
Oct-15
0
Sep-15
-20%
Aug-15
100
2%
2,500
Dec-15
-10%
200
8% 4%
3,000
Nov-15
0%
300
Change %
10%
6%
Oct-15
10%
400
Change %
3,500
Oct-15
20%
500
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Oct-15
30%
600
4,500 4,000
Sep-15
40%
Sep-15
% Change
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
700
Aug-15
800
Aug-15
Saudi Cement
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Aug-15
Jul-16
% Change
Aug-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Jun-16
700 600
Yanbu Cement
3
3,600
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
3,500
Change %
10% 8%
3,400
6%
3,300
4%
3,200
2%
3,100
0%
3,000 2,900
-2%
2,700
-6%
-4%
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
2,800
Dec-15
-60%
Jul-16
0
Aug-16
-40%
Jun-16
100
May-16
-20%
Apr -16
200
Mar -16
0%
Feb-16
300
Jan-16
20%
Dec-15
400
Nov-15
40%
Oct-15
500
Sep-15
60%
Aug-15
600
Nov-15
80%
Oct-15
% Change
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Aug-15
700
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for August 2016 September 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | August 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Inventory Changes
40%
400
0%
500
20%
300
-20%
200
-40%
Aug-16
0
Jul-16
100
Jun-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Feb-16
Mar -16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
-60%
Nov-15
0
Sep-15
-40%
Aug-15
100
600
May-16
-20%
60%
700
Apr -16
0%
200
100% 80%
Mar -16
20%
300
Change %
800
Jan-16
40%
400
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
900
Feb-16
60%
Arabian Cement 1,000
Dec-15
500
80%
Nov-15
% Change
Oct-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Sep-15
600
Aug-15
Arabian Cement
-60%
Eastern Cement
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
% Change
250
60% 40%
200 150 100
400
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Feb-16
Mar -16
Jan-16
Dec-15
AlJouf Cement
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
1,400
1,200
250%
1,000
200%
800
150%
600
100%
-20%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Change %
300%
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
0
Mar -16
0%
-60%
Jan-16
50%
200
Feb-16
400
-40%
Dec-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Feb-16
Mar -16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
50
Oct-15
-30%
-20%
Nov-15
100
Sep-15
0
40%
0%
Aug-15
-10%
100
60%
20%
150
4
0%
200
Oct-15
% Change
200
0
10%
300
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
50%
20%
Al Jouf Cement
250
60%
30%
500
Aug-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
-60%
Aug-15
0
-6%
40%
700
0%
-40%
Change %
800 600
50
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
900
20%
-20%
-4%
Aug-16
300
-2%
Aug-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Feb-16
1,000
Mar -16
80%
Jan-16
0
Dec-15
-60%
Oct-15
0
Nov-15
500
Sep-15
-40%
Aug-15
50
Northern Cement
0%
1,000
Jun-16
-20%
100
Jul-16
150
2%
May-16
0%
4%
1,500
Jun-16
200
6%
2,000
Apr -16
250
20%
10% 8%
May-16
300
Change %
2,500
Apr -16
40%
Mar -16
350
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Mar -16
60%
Najran Cement 3,000
Jan-16
80%
Feb-16
400
% Change
-2%
Feb-16
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
0
Dec-15
Najran Cement 450
-1%
200
Jan-16
-40%
0%
400
Aug-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Feb-16
Mar -16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
-30%
1%
600
Nov-15
50
2%
800
Nov-15
-20%
3%
1,000
Dec-15
100
6% 4%
1,200
Nov-15
-10%
7% 5%
1,400
Oct-15
0%
150
Change %
1,600
Sep-15
200
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
1,800
Oct-15
10%
2,000
Sep-15
20%
250
0
40% 30%
Oct-15
300
% Change
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Aug-15
350
-50%
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for August 2016 September 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | August 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Inventory Changes
Tabuk Cement
Tabuk Cement
0%
300 200
-50%
0
Aug-16
100
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
-60%
Oct-15
0
Sep-15
-40%
Aug-15
20
50%
400
Jun-16
-20%
40
500
Apr -16
0%
60
100%
600
May-16
20%
80
200% 150%
700
Mar -16
100
Change %
800
Feb-16
40%
Jan-16
120
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
900
Dec-15
60%
1,000
Nov-15
140
80%
Oct-15
% Change
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Aug-15
160
-100%
City Cement
-60%
0
80%
1,800
40%
1,400
0% -20%
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
-10%
6% 4% 2%
1,200
0%
1,000
-2%
800 600
-4%
400
-6%
200
-8%
0
AlSafwa Cement
50
0
-50%
0
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
-40%
0%
-20% -40%
Aug-16
-30%
20%
Jul-16
50
-20%
40%
Jun-16
100
May-16
-10%
120%
60%
Apr -16
100
0%
140%
80%
Mar -16
150
Feb-16
10%
Change %
100%
Jan-16
150
20%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Dec-15
200
40%
Nov-15
30%
% Change
Oct-15
200
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Sep-15
250
Oct-15
Change %
1,600
50%
250
Sep-15
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Aug-15
Oct-15
-60%
Sep-15
0
Aug-15
50
-40%
-5%
2,000
60%
200
Aug-15
Feb-16
0
Safwa Cement
5
Jan-16
-60%
250
100
Dec-15
200
20%
150
Nov-15
Aug-15 -40%
15%
Aug-16
300
0%
400
Jul-16
350
600
-20%
Jun-16
% Change
5%
May-16
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
800
0%
Apr -16
450 400
20%
Change %
10%
Mar -16
Riyadh Cement
1,000
Feb-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
0
Sep-15
20
1,200
40%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Jan-16
40
60%
Jan-16
60
Hail Cement 1,400
Dec-15
80
-10%
80%
Dec-15
100
-5%
Nov-15
120
0%
Nov-15
140
5%
400
Oct-15
160
10%
Oct-15
180
% Change
15%
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
200
25% 20%
Aug-15
Aug-16
0
Jul-16
200
Jun-16
-40%
Apr -16
50
May-16
-20%
Mar -16
0%
100
Feb-16
150
600
Jan-16
20%
Dec-15
200
Nov-15
800
Oct-15
40%
Sep-15
250
Aug-15
60%
Hail Cement
Change %
1,000
300
Hail Cement
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
1,200
Oct-15
80%
Sep-15
100%
% Change
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
350
Aug-15
400
-60%
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
RESEARCH DIVISION
Acting Head of Research
Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]
Waleed Al-jubayr +966 11 2256146 [email protected]
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION
Sultan Al Kadi
Analyst
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
sales
brokerage
Brokerage
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
+966 12 6618400 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
-40.0%
Dec-15
1,000
Oct-15
-20.0%
Nov-15
2,000
Aug-15
0.0%
Sep-15
3,000
Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research
Share in Dispatches by Regions Regions
Share in Dispatches Share in Inventory Aug-15 Aug-16 8M-2016 Aug-15 Aug-16
Central Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region Northern Region
28.23% 30.30% 28.80% 30.04% 28.73% 22.39% 21.16% 22.01% 17.08% 17.02% 21.10% 19.85% 19.21% 18.01% 14.91% 16.55% 17.24% 17.90% 21.57% 23.94% 11.73% 11.45% 12.08% 13.31% 15.40%
Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research
Key Performance: Data/Ratios Market Cap(bn) P/E (TTM) P/B Dividend Yield: YTD (%) ROA ROE
94.4 8.8x 1.6x 10.2% -20.2% 12.5% 16.5%
Inventories Level 14%
30,000
12%
25,000
10% 8%
20,000
6%
15,000
4% 2%
10,000
0%
5,000
Aug-16
Jul-16
-4%
Jun-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
May-16
-2%
0
Nov-15
Market Share: Tabuk cement showed an improvement in its market share as it increased from 1.8% in August-2015 to 2.5% in August-2016. Moreover, AlJouf cement increased its market share from 2.6% to 3.6%. On the other hand, Northern cement company market share declined to 2.6% in August-2016 as compared to 4.1% in August-2015, followed by Najran cement as it declined from 7.1% in July 2015 to 5.4% in July 2016.
20.0%
4,000
Aug-15
Clinker inventory covers five months of demand: Clinker inventory reaches historical high at 25.3mn tons showing an increase of 6.0%MoM and 12.4%YoY due to weak demand and capacity expansion since end of 2015. Overall clinker production of the sector posted an average YTD decline of 1.6%, reflecting cautious steps taken to control costs and the impact of low demand. Aljouf Cement showed a significant increase in clinker inventory by 258.2%MoM, followed by AlSafwa Cement which showed an increase of 35.6%MoM. In addition, Al-Qassim and Najran cement witnessed a decline of 11.1%MoM and 5.0%MoM respectively.
40.0%
5,000
Sep-15
On MoM basis, all cement companies showed growth in dispatches, with Najran cement showing the highest growth of 56.6%MoM followed by Tabuk cement with growth of 51.4%MoM. Whereas, Saudi cement and Eastern cement showed the lowest growth of 22.3%MoM and 30.9%MoM respectively. On YoY basis, Tabuk cement showed an increase of 30.2%YoY in cement dispatches, followed by Aljuof cement with a growth of 24.4%YoY. However, Northern cement and Najran cement witnessed a fall of 42.6%YoY and 31.2%YoY respectively.
60.0%
6,000
Thousand Tonne
Overview: the MoM growth is attributed to the impact of Ramadan and Eid holiday in June/ July that resulted in slowdown in construction. For the 8M-2016, Cement sales decreased from 40.8mn tons in 2015 to 39.3mn tons in 2016 depicting a decline of 3.7%YoY, primarily driven by decrease in dispatches during the months of June and July. Nevertheless, despite challenges, we expect sector cement demand to show sign of recovery in Q4-2016 due to seasonal impact in 3Q-2016(Eid Holidays).
Dispatches Growth
Thousand Tonne
Cement Dispatches: grew 40.8%MoM, but declined 9.9%YoY; Clinker inventory reaches historical high: According to the data released by Yamamah cement Co, cement dispatches for the month of August-2016 stood at 4.41mn tons, as compared to 4.90mn tons in August-2015, depicting a decline of 9.9%YoY, and growth of 40.8%MoM.
Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research
Key Data Dispatches Region Central Region
Western Region Eastern Region Southern Region
Northern Region
Jul-16
Aug-15
Aug-16
"M/M %
% change Y/Y
8M-15
Yamamah Cement City Cement Qassim Cement Riyadh Cement Total Yanbu Cement Arabian Cement AlSafwa Cement Total Saudi Cement Eastern Cement Total Najran Cement Southern Cement Total Northern Cement AlJouf Cement Tabuk Cement Hail Cement Total Total
314 169 218 227 928 316 224 95 635 476 136 612 152 432 584 99 118 74 82 373 3,132
508 221 365 288 1,382 547 437 112 1,096 591 219 810 346 687 1,033 202 127 86 159 574 4,895
448 250 316 322 1,336 472 323 138 933 582 178 760 238 637 875 116 158 112 119 505 4,409
42.7% 47.9% 45.0% 41.9% 44.0% 49.4% 44.2% 45.3% 46.9% 22.3% 30.9% 24.2% 56.6% 47.5% 49.8% 17.2% 33.9% 51.4% 45.1% 35.4% 40.8%
-11.8% 13.1% -13.4% 11.8% -3.3% -13.7% -26.1% 23.2% -14.9% -1.5% -18.7% -6.2% -31.2% -7.3% -15.3% -42.6% 24.4% 30.2% -25.2% -12.0% -9.9%
3,828 1,692 2,896 2,183 10599 4,659 3,631 1,272 9561 5,212 2,056 7268 3,015 5,648 8663 1,528 1,114 891 1,151 4,684 40,774
Analyst
Analyst
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
Jassim Al-Jubran
1
Clinker Inventory Levels
Companies
© All rights reserved
Waleed Al-jubayr
% Change 3,799 -0.8% 2,180 28.8% 2,808 -3.0% 2,525 15.7% 11,312 6.7% 4,096 -12.1% 3,272 -9.9% 1,279 0.6% 8,647 -9.6% 5,208 -0.1% 1,821 -11.4% 7,029 -3.3% 2,146 -28.8% 5,399 -4.4% 7,545 -12.9% 1,448 -5.2% 1,320 18.4% 951 6.8% 1,027 -10.8% 4,746 1.3% 39,279 -3.7%
8M-16
Jul-16
Aug-15
3,699 1,070 974 1,606 7,349 3,466 521 163 4,150 4,095 1,753 5,848 2,570 1,110 3,680 468 342 904 1,137 2,851 23,878
3,299 718 973 1,775 6765 3,174 630 42 3846 3,564 1,293 4857 2,738 1,318 4056 906 639 674 778 2,997 22,521
YoY % MoM % Aug-16 Change Change 3,784 14.7% 2.3% 1,017 41.6% -5.0% 866 -11.0% -11.1% 1,604 -9.6% -0.1% 7,271 7.5% -1.1% 3,528 11.2% 1.8% 558 -11.4% 7.1% 221 426.2% 35.6% 4,307 12.0% 3.8% 4,282 20.1% 4.6% 1,775 37.3% 1.3% 6,057 24.7% 3.6% 2,620 -4.3% 1.9% 1,152 -12.6% 3.8% 3,772 -7.0% 2.5% 576 -36.4% 23.1% 1,225 91.7% 258.2% 934 38.6% 3.3% 1,162 49.4% 2.2% 3,897 30.0% 36.7% 25,304 12.4% 6.0%
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
Cement Dispatches for August 2016 September 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | August 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Company News & Events Date of Company Name Announcement
Corporate Event & Announcement
Eastern Cement
23-6-2016
Eastern Province Cement Co. said that the trial run of its cement mill is not yet complete as work is still underway to increase efficiency and reach designed production capacity. The trial phase is expected to be completed during the second half of 2016 and there is no financial impact expected from the delay, the company added.
Yamama Cement
28-6-2016
Yamama Cement Co. has awarded Finland’s Wartsila a SAR 480 million contract to build, operate and maintain a private 133-megawatt power station. Under the five-year agreement, the construction work will start in September, and the entire project is scheduled for completion by June 1, 2019.
Arabian Cement
18-7-2016
Arabian Cement Company’s board of directors has recommended the distribution of a 20 percent cash dividend (SAR 2 per share) for the first half of 2016, the company said in a bourse statement.
Yamama Cement
21-7-2016
Yamama Cement Co.’s board of directors has recommended paying shareholders a 2.5 percent cash dividend (SAR 0.25 per share) for Q2-2016
Southern Cement
25-7-2016
Southern Province Cement Co. has recommended the distribution of a 25 percent cash dividend (SAR 2.5 per share) for the first half of 2016, the company said in a statement.
26-7-2016
Umm Al-Qura Cement Co. (UACC) said that it has signed an agreement with Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Saudi Aramco) to buy fuel required to operate its Portland cement line, while adding that financial impact cannot be determined at the time.
Umm Al-Qura
The new line’s trial and commercial operations are expected to begin in third quarter. City Cement
26-7-2016
City Cement Co.’s board of directors has recommended the distribution of a 7.5 percent cash dividend at the rate of SAR 0.75 per share for the first half of 2016.
Northern Cement
10-8-2016
The board of directors of Northern Region Cement Co. approved the distribution of a 4.5 percent cash dividend at the rate of SAR 0.45 per share for first half of 2016.
Southern Cement
28-8-2016
Umm Al-Qura
18-9-2016
Southern Province Cement Co. has started trial operations of the second production line at its Bisha plant on August 25, which will continue until it reaches its capacity of 5,000 tons of clinker a day. The cement maker said in a statement to Tadawul that it doesn’t expect any financial impact at this stage, adding that it will announce further developments in due course. Umm Al-Qura Cement Co. started commercial operations at its new Portland cement production line. The cement producer added that it would be difficult to measure the financial impact at this stage due to supply and demand factors. Source: The Saudi Stock Exchange - Tadawul
Market Share in Saudi Cement Sector (%) 15.0% 15%
36.8%
38.1%
25.6% -23.6%
-16.9%
2.9% -17.9%
-
-36.2%
-4.2%
-3.9%
-9.8%
9.3%
Share in dispatches- August 2015
2
30.0% 10.0% -10.0%
Hail
AlSafwa
-30.0%
AlJouf
Northern
-1.0%
City
10%
Tabuk
7%
50.0%
-
Southern
7%
-
1.0%
Arabian
Others
5%
Yanbu
Eastern Cement
11%
-
-
Qassim
Najran cement
-
3.0%
Eastern
4%
-
Saudi
Qassim Cement
5.0%
Yamama
Arabian Cement
7.0%
-2.1%
9.0% 13%
Yamama Cement
Najran
Yanbu Cement
24.1%
11.0%
28%
90.0% 70.0%
Riyadh
Saudi Cement
13.0%
44.6%
Southern Cement
% Change in Share in Dispatches
-50.0%
Share in dispatches- August 2016
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for August 2016 September 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | August 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Inventory Changes
Yamama Cement 80%
4,000
60%
3,500
8%
500
40%
3,000
6%
400
20%
2,500
4%
300
0%
2,000
2%
200
-20%
1,500
0%
1,000
-2%
100
-40%
500
-4%
0
-60%
0
-6%
1,400
40%
1,200
500
20%
1,000
400
0%
700 600
300
-20%
200
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
-60%
Sep-15
0
Aug-15
100
-40%
Hail Cement
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Souhtern Cement
60%
800
% Change
Oct-15
-15%
1,600
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Sep-15
0
80%
900
Aug-15
-10%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Change % 30% 20% 10% 0%
800
-10%
600
-20%
400 200
-30%
0
-40%
Aug-16
Southern Cement
-5%
200
Jul-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
-60%
400
Jun-16
-40%
50
0%
Jun-16
-20%
100
600
Apr -16
150
5%
May-16
0%
200
800
Apr -16
250
15% 10%
May-16
20%
Change %
1,000
Mar -16
300
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
1,200
Mar -16
40%
350
0
60%
-8%
Feb-16
400
80%
-6%
0
Feb-16
% Change
500
Jan-16
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
450
-4%
1,000
Jan-16
500
-2%
1,500
Dec-15
Qassim Cement
0%
2,000
Nov-15
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
-30%
Oct-15
0
Sep-15
-20%
Aug-15
100
2%
2,500
Dec-15
-10%
200
8% 4%
3,000
Nov-15
0%
300
Change %
10%
6%
Oct-15
10%
400
Change %
3,500
Oct-15
20%
500
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Oct-15
30%
600
4,500 4,000
Sep-15
40%
Sep-15
% Change
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
700
Aug-15
800
Aug-15
Saudi Cement
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Aug-15
Jul-16
% Change
Aug-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Jun-16
700 600
Yanbu Cement
3
3,600
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
3,500
Change %
10% 8%
3,400
6%
3,300
4%
3,200
2%
3,100
0%
3,000 2,900
-2%
2,700
-6%
-4%
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
2,800
Dec-15
-60%
Jul-16
0
Aug-16
-40%
Jun-16
100
May-16
-20%
Apr -16
200
Mar -16
0%
Feb-16
300
Jan-16
20%
Dec-15
400
Nov-15
40%
Oct-15
500
Sep-15
60%
Aug-15
600
Nov-15
80%
Oct-15
% Change
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Aug-15
700
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for August 2016 September 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | August 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Inventory Changes
40%
400
0%
500
20%
300
-20%
200
-40%
Aug-16
0
Jul-16
100
Jun-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Feb-16
Mar -16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
-60%
Nov-15
0
Sep-15
-40%
Aug-15
100
600
May-16
-20%
60%
700
Apr -16
0%
200
100% 80%
Mar -16
20%
300
Change %
800
Jan-16
40%
400
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
900
Feb-16
60%
Arabian Cement 1,000
Dec-15
500
80%
Nov-15
% Change
Oct-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Sep-15
600
Aug-15
Arabian Cement
-60%
Eastern Cement
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
% Change
250
60% 40%
200 150 100
400
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Feb-16
Mar -16
Jan-16
Dec-15
AlJouf Cement
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
1,400
1,200
250%
1,000
200%
800
150%
600
100%
-20%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Change %
300%
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
0
Mar -16
0%
-60%
Jan-16
50%
200
Feb-16
400
-40%
Dec-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Feb-16
Mar -16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
50
Oct-15
-30%
-20%
Nov-15
100
Sep-15
0
40%
0%
Aug-15
-10%
100
60%
20%
150
4
0%
200
Oct-15
% Change
200
0
10%
300
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
50%
20%
Al Jouf Cement
250
60%
30%
500
Aug-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
-60%
Aug-15
0
-6%
40%
700
0%
-40%
Change %
800 600
50
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
900
20%
-20%
-4%
Aug-16
300
-2%
Aug-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Feb-16
1,000
Mar -16
80%
Jan-16
0
Dec-15
-60%
Oct-15
0
Nov-15
500
Sep-15
-40%
Aug-15
50
Northern Cement
0%
1,000
Jun-16
-20%
100
Jul-16
150
2%
May-16
0%
4%
1,500
Jun-16
200
6%
2,000
Apr -16
250
20%
10% 8%
May-16
300
Change %
2,500
Apr -16
40%
Mar -16
350
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Mar -16
60%
Najran Cement 3,000
Jan-16
80%
Feb-16
400
% Change
-2%
Feb-16
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
0
Dec-15
Najran Cement 450
-1%
200
Jan-16
-40%
0%
400
Aug-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Feb-16
Mar -16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
-30%
1%
600
Nov-15
50
2%
800
Nov-15
-20%
3%
1,000
Dec-15
100
6% 4%
1,200
Nov-15
-10%
7% 5%
1,400
Oct-15
0%
150
Change %
1,600
Sep-15
200
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
1,800
Oct-15
10%
2,000
Sep-15
20%
250
0
40% 30%
Oct-15
300
% Change
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Aug-15
350
-50%
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for August 2016 September 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | August 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Inventory Changes
Tabuk Cement
Tabuk Cement
0%
300 200
-50%
0
Aug-16
100
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
-60%
Oct-15
0
Sep-15
-40%
Aug-15
20
50%
400
Jun-16
-20%
40
500
Apr -16
0%
60
100%
600
May-16
20%
80
200% 150%
700
Mar -16
100
Change %
800
Feb-16
40%
Jan-16
120
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
900
Dec-15
60%
1,000
Nov-15
140
80%
Oct-15
% Change
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Aug-15
160
-100%
City Cement
-60%
0
80%
1,800
40%
1,400
0% -20%
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr -16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
-10%
6% 4% 2%
1,200
0%
1,000
-2%
800 600
-4%
400
-6%
200
-8%
0
AlSafwa Cement
50
0
-50%
0
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
-40%
0%
-20% -40%
Aug-16
-30%
20%
Jul-16
50
-20%
40%
Jun-16
100
May-16
-10%
120%
60%
Apr -16
100
0%
140%
80%
Mar -16
150
Feb-16
10%
Change %
100%
Jan-16
150
20%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Dec-15
200
40%
Nov-15
30%
% Change
Oct-15
200
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
Sep-15
250
Oct-15
Change %
1,600
50%
250
Sep-15
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Aug-15
Oct-15
-60%
Sep-15
0
Aug-15
50
-40%
-5%
2,000
60%
200
Aug-15
Feb-16
0
Safwa Cement
5
Jan-16
-60%
250
100
Dec-15
200
20%
150
Nov-15
Aug-15 -40%
15%
Aug-16
300
0%
400
Jul-16
350
600
-20%
Jun-16
% Change
5%
May-16
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
800
0%
Apr -16
450 400
20%
Change %
10%
Mar -16
Riyadh Cement
1,000
Feb-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr -16
May-16
Mar -16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
0
Sep-15
20
1,200
40%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
Jan-16
40
60%
Jan-16
60
Hail Cement 1,400
Dec-15
80
-10%
80%
Dec-15
100
-5%
Nov-15
120
0%
Nov-15
140
5%
400
Oct-15
160
10%
Oct-15
180
% Change
15%
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
200
25% 20%
Aug-15
Aug-16
0
Jul-16
200
Jun-16
-40%
Apr -16
50
May-16
-20%
Mar -16
0%
100
Feb-16
150
600
Jan-16
20%
Dec-15
200
Nov-15
800
Oct-15
40%
Sep-15
250
Aug-15
60%
Hail Cement
Change %
1,000
300
Hail Cement
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)
1,200
Oct-15
80%
Sep-15
100%
% Change
Sep-15
Dispatches(1000 Ton)
350
Aug-15
400
-60%
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
RESEARCH DIVISION
Acting Head of Research
Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]
Waleed Al-jubayr +966 11 2256146 [email protected]
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION
Sultan Al Kadi
Analyst
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
sales
brokerage
Brokerage
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
+966 12 6618400 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
