Cement Dispatches for November 2016 - Aljazira Capital
Cement Dispatches for November 2016 December 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | November 2016
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Thousand Tonne
Cement Dispatches: Decline of 4.1%MoM, and 21.9%YoY; export regulations Dispatches Growth might be lessened: According to the data released by Yamamah cement Co, Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS) cement dispatches for the month of November-2016 stood at 4.2mn tons, 6,000 compared to 5.4mn tons in November-2015, depicting a decline of 21.9%YoY, 5,000 and 4.1%MoM.
Change %(RHS)
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
4,000
Share in Dispatches
On MoM basis, Yanbu cement showed the highest growth of 23.2%MoM followed Regions Nov-15 Nov-16 11M-2016 by Eastern cement which showed growth of 9.7%MoM. On the other hand “Central Region” 27.05% 27.85% 28.98% Southern cement showed a decline of 18.4%MoM followed by Qassim cement “Western Region” 23.08% 27.38% 22.36% “Southern Region” 21.12% 16.49% 18.95% which showed decline of 15.5%. On YoY basis, Yanbu and AlSafwa cement were “Eastern Region” 16.88% 17.72% 17.88% the only companies to show growth in cement dispatches, recording an increase “Northern Region” 11.87% 10.56% 11.83% of 11.3%YoY and 5.0%YoY respectively. Northern cement and Najran cement Key Performance: Data/Ratios witnessed a fall of 50.0%YoY and 49.9%YoY respectively.
Oct-16
Nov-16
29.93% 29.48% 17.83% 15.20% 15.84% 16.17% 23.32% 23.85% 13.08% 15.30%
58.1 10.92 1.88 8.14% -5.50% 12.06% 15.83%
Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research
Invenories Level 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
Oct-16
Nov-16
Sep-16
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
0
Feb-16
5,000
Nov-15
Market Share: Yanbu cement showed an improvement in its market share as it increased from 11.5% in November-2015 to 16.4% in November-2016. Moreover, AlSafwa cement increased its market share from 2.6% to 3.5%. On the other hand, Northern cement company market share declined to 2.6% in November-2016 as compared to 4.0% in November-2015, followed by Najran cement as it declined from 7.4% in November 2015 to 4.7% in November 2016.
Share in Inventory Nov-15 Nov-16
Market Cap(bn) P/E (TTM) P/B Dividend Yield: YTD (%) ROA ROE
Dec-15
Clinker production declined 7.0%MoM, but clinker inventories increased by 2.2%MoM: Clinker inventory continued to increase, reaching a new historical high of 27.7mn ton depicting an increase of 20.4%YoY, due to weak demand and higher production to sales ratio. Southern cement showed an increase of 18.4%MoM in clinker inventory, followed by City cement which showed increase of 7.6%MoM. On the other hand, Arabian and Yanbu cement companies’ clinker inventory witnessed a decrease of 19.9%MoM and 8.1%MoM respectively.
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Dec-15
Overview: The sector’s MoM decline indicates a slowdown in construction activity 0.0% 3,000 during the month. For 11M-2016, Cement sales declined from 55.6mn tons in 2015 -20.0% 2,000 to 51.3mn tons in 2016 depicting a decline of 7.8%YoY, mostly due to weak demand -40.0% and lower awarded contracts, in addition to discontinued projects. According 1,000 to Kahild Al Falih (Minister of Energy), the Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research Energy is working together to ease the restrictions on cement export, which may Share in Dispatches by Regions relieve the pressure on the sector.
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
Change %(RHS)
Key Data Dispatches Region “Central Region”
“Western Region” “Eastern Region” “Southern Region” “Northern Region”
Companies
Oct-16
Nov-15
Nov-16
Yamamah Cement City Cement Qassim Cement Riyadh Cement Total Yanbu Cement Arabian Cement AlSafwa Cement Total Saudi Cement Eastern Cement Total Najran Cement Southern Cement Total Northern Cement AlJouf Cement Tabuk Cement Hail Cement Total Total
442 235 355 295 1,327 560 298 154 1,012 585 207 792 197 608 805 110 136 109 102 457 4,393
492 251 422 295 1,460 620 486 140 1,246 629 282 911 397 743 1,140 218 163 109 151 641 5,398
388 234 300 252 1,174 690 317 147 1,154 520 227 747 199 496 695 109 142 99 95 445 4,215
M/M % change -12.2% -0.4% -15.5% -14.6% -11.5% 23.2% 6.4% -4.5% 14.0% -11.1% 9.7% -5.7% 1.0% -18.4% -13.7% -0.9% 4.4% -9.2% -6.9% -2.6% -4.1%
Y/Y % change -21.1% -6.8% -28.9% -14.6% -19.6% 11.3% -34.8% 5.0% -7.4% -17.3% -19.5% -18.0% -49.9% -33.2% -39.0% -50.0% -12.9% -9.2% -37.1% -30.6% -21.9%
Clinker Inventory Levels 11M-15 5,279 2,373 3,988 3,033 14673 6,348 4,867 1,682 12896 7,012 2,828 9840 4,082 7,711 11793 2,130 1,546 1,186 1,583 6,445 55,646
% 11M-2016 Change 4,983 2,824 3,736 3,319 14,862 5,693 4,107 1,668 11,468 6,774 2,397 9,171 2,709 7,008 9,717 1,761 1,742 1,245 1,319 6,067 51,285
-5.6% 19.0% -6.3% 9.4% 1.3% -10.3% -15.6% -0.8% -11.1% -3.4% -15.2% -6.8% -33.6% -9.1% -17.6% -17.3% 12.6% 5.0% -16.7% -5.9% -7.8%
Oct-16
Nov-15
Nov-16
4,054 1,204 925 1,624 7,807 3,646 653 342 4,641 4,414 1,914 6,328 2,840 1,301 4,141 745 1,140 960 1,311 4,156 27,073
3,441 782 929 1,725 6877 3,250 724 122 4096 3,900 1,459 5359 2,531 1,108 3639 676 601 837 892 3,006 22,977
4,236 1,295 948 1,676 8,155 3,351 523 332 4,206 4,600 1,997 6,597 2,932 1,541 4,473 780 1,052 1,009 1,391 4,232 27,663
M/M % change 23.1% 65.6% 2.0% -2.8% 18.6% 3.1% -27.8% 172.1% 2.7% 17.9% 36.9% 23.1% 15.8% 39.1% 22.9% 15.4% 75.0% 20.5% 55.9% 40.8% 20.4%
Y/Y % change 4.5% 7.6% 2.5% 3.2% 4.5% -8.1% -19.9% -2.9% -9.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 3.2% 18.4% 8.0% 4.7% -7.7% 5.1% 6.1% 1.8% 2.2%
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
1
Analyst
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
Waleed Al-jubayr
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
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Cement Dispatches for November 2016 December 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | November 2016
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Company News & Events Date of Company Name Announcement
Corporate Event & Announcement
Tabuk Cement
29-09-2016
Tabuk Cement Co. will begin commercial operations at its second production line in Q2-2017. Production, which was set to begin in the fourth quarter of this year, has been delayed due certain shortfalls in operating with full capacity.
Qassim Cement
06-10-2016
Qassim Cement Co.’s board of directors has recommended distributing a 10% cash dividend of SAR 1 per share for Q3-2016.
Umm Al-Qura
18-09-2016
Umm Al-Qura Cement Co. started commercial operations at its new Portland cement production line. The cement producer added that it would be difficult to measure the financial impact at this stage due to supply and demand factors.
13-11-2016
Al Jouf Cement Co. said it will shut down its first production line from 15th Nov, until 30th of November, 2016 for scheduled maintenance of the furnace. The financial impact of this shutdown will be reflected on the fourth quarter financials.
Arabian Cement
21-11-2016
Arabian Cement Co. has said that construction work is still ongoing at its clinker grinder facility in Rabigh and that commercial operations are scheduled to start in Q4-2017. Relevant financial impact of the new facility can’t be determined at this time, as it depends on market demand and supply.
City Cement
05-11-2016
City Cement Co. has extended the trial run of its grinding unit by another three months, adding that the delay will not increase the project’s total cost.
Yamama Cement
17-10-2016
Yamama Cement Co.’s board of directors voted against distributing a cash dividend for the third quarter of 2016. The board said it wants to maintain liquidity needed to fund its new cement plants.
AlJouf Cement
Source: The Saudi Stock Exchange - Tadawul
Share in Dispatches (November 2016)
Market Share in Saudi Cement Sector (%)
Yanbu Cement
15.0%
90.0%
13.0%
70.0%
11%
Saudi Cement
25%
Southern Cement
12%
Yamama Cement
42.5%
7%
Eastern Cement Najran Cement Others
14%
5.0%
16.3% 1.0%
5.9%
3.1% 9.0% -
3.0%
5%
16.5% -
8% 9%
-1.0%
Share in dispatches- November 2015(LHS)
11.6%
Arabian Southern Tabuk Cement Cement Cement
10.0% 19.4% -
35.8% Yamama Saudi Eastern Qassim Yanbu Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement
30.0%
19.4% 9.4%
14.5% -
1.0%
9%
50.0%
34.5%
9.0% 7.0%
Arabian Cement Qassim Cement
11.0%
36.0% -
10.0% -30.0%
Riyadh Najran City Northern AlJouf AlSafwa Hail -50.0% Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement
Share in dispatches- November 2016(LHS)
% Change in Share in Dispatches (RHS)
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
2
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Cement Dispatches for November 2016 December 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | November 2016
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Dispatches & Change
Yamama Cement 40%
4,000
0% 20% -
1,500
N
ov
-1
6
6
6
-1 ct
O
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
A
ug
16
l-1
Ju
Ju
n-
-1 ay
-1 ov N
N
6
-8%
6
0
5
6
6
-1
ov
6
-1
ct
O
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
Ju
n-
16
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
-1
pr
A
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
16
5 -1
n-
ec
D
Ja
5 -1 ov N
-6%
500
M
-30%
0
-4%
1,000
6
-20%
100
-2%
-10%
0%
-1
200
2,000
pr
300
2%
2,500
A
400
6%
3,000
0%
16
500
8% 4%
3,500
-1
10%
Change %(RHS)
4,000
ar
20%
600
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
4,500
M
700
5,000
16
30%
b-
Change %(RHS)
-10%
0
n-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
-5%
1,000
ov -1 5
Saudi Co SaudiCement Cement 800
0%
2,000
N
Fe b
-1
n-
Ja
ov -
D ec
N
-1 6 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l- 1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
60% -
5
0
16
40% -
15
100
3,000
Ja
200
5%
Fe
300
10%
D
400
Change %(RHS)
ec -1 5 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
20%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
5
500
5,000
-1
600
60%
ec
Change %(RHS)
D
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
700
Qassim Cement 50%
Change %(RHS)
40%
400
30%
350
20%
300 200 100
0%
-20%
400
-5%
200
-10%
0
-15%
N
ov
-1
6
6
6
-1 ct
O
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
A
ug
16
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
A
pr
16
-1
ar
M
b-
16
n-
Ja
D
Fe
5 -1 ov N
5
6 -1
ov
N
O
ct
-1
6
6
6
-1
S
ep
-1
ug
6
l-1
Ju
A
6
Ju
n-
16
6
-1
M
ay
-1
6 -1
pr
A
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
16
5 -1
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
5
-50%
ov N
5%
-40%
0
10%
600
-30%
50
1,000
15%
800
-10%
150
Change %(RHS)
0%
10%
250
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,200
-1
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
450
ec
500
Souhtern Cement
-10%
600
-20%
400
-30%
200
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
-1
O ct
6 S
ep
-1
6 A
ug -1
16
l-1
Ju
Ju
n-
6
6
-1
M
ay
-1
A
pr
-1
ar
M
-1 ov N
6
-40% 16
0
5
N ov -1 5 D ec -1 5 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
0
800
b-
100
1,000
16
200
0%
n-
300
10%
1,200
Ja
400
30% 20%
1,400
Fe
500
Change %(RHS)
1,600
5
600
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,800
-1
700
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%
ec
Change %(RHS)
D
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
900
800
Yanbu Cement
6
6
N ov
-1
6
-1
O ct
6 S
ep
-1
6 A
ug -1
16
Ju
Ju n-
l-1
6
6
-1
M
ay
-1
pr
A
M
ar
-1
6
-6%
16
-4%
0
b-
5 ov -1 N
-2%
500
16
-60%
0%
1,000
n-
0
2%
1,500
Ja
-40%
D ec -1 5 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
100
4%
2,000
Fe
-20%
200
6%
2,500
5
0%
300
10% 8%
-1
20%
400
Change %(RHS)
3,000
ec
500
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
3,500
D
40%
4,000
5
60%
600
3
80%
-1
Change %(RHS)
700
N ov
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
800
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for November 2016 December 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | November 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Change
Arabian Cement
Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
2% 1% 0%
500
-1%
6 -1
ov
N
ct
-1
6
6
S
O
6
-1
ep
6
-1
A
ug
16
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
6
-1 ay
M
-1 ov N
N
-1
5
-2%
6
0
6
6
-1
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
A
ug
16
Ju
l-1
6
M
Ju
n-
6
-1
ay
6
-1
-1
pr
A
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
5
16
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
ov
-1
5
-40%
3%
1,000
pr
0
6% 4%
1,500
A
-30%
7% 5%
16
50
Change %(RHS)
2,000
-1
-20%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
ar
-10%
2,500
M
0%
100
-60%
16
10%
150
-40%
0
b-
40% 20%
200
N
50% 30%
250
-20%
100
n-
300
0%
200
Ja
Change %(RHS)
20%
300
Fe
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
40%
400
N
Eastern Co EasternCement Cement 350
60%
500
ov -1 5
5
16
n-
Ja
ec -1
N
D
ov -1
5
0
600
ec -1 5 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
100
100%
D
200
Change %(RHS)
80%
5
300
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
800 700
-1
400
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60%
ec
Change %(RHS)
500
D
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
600
Najran Cement
2,500
20%
2,000
6 -1
ov
N
ct
-1
6
6
S
O
6
-1
ep
6
-1
A
ug
16
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
-1 ay
-1
M
D
pr
-1 ov N
N
6
-6%
6
-4%
0
5
500
A
6
6
-1
ov
6
-1 ct
O
6
S
ep
-1
6
-1
A
ug
16
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
6
-1
ay
M
A
pr
-1
6 -1
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
5
16
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
ov
-1
5
-60%
16
0
-2%
-1
50
0%
1,000
ar
-40%
2%
1,500
M
100
4%
b-
-20%
10%
6%
16
0%
150
N
40%
Change %(RHS)
8%
n-
200
3,000
Ja
250
60%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
Fe
300
3,500
5
350
80%
-1
Change %(RHS)
400
ec
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
450
Northern Cement Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
800
Change %(RHS)
60% 50%
6
16
N
ov -
6
-1 ct
O
-1
ep
S
ug -
A
l-1
-1
Ju
M
ay
Ju n
-1
-1
A
pr
-1
M ar
b-
n-
Ja
Fe
ov N
16
-30%
6
-20%
0
6
-10%
100
6
0%
200
6
10%
300
6
20%
400
16
30%
500
16
40%
600
5
700
15
6 -1
N
ov
-1 ct
O
-1
S
ep
-1
A
ug
-1
Ju l
-1
Ju n
-1
M
ay
-1
pr
A
ar -
M
b-
Fe
-1
Ja n
ec -
-1 ov N
D
6
-40%
6
0
6
-30%
6
50
6
-20%
6
100
6
-10%
16
150
16
0%
6
200
15
10%
5
250
900
-1
20%
ec
Change %(RHS)
D
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
300
AlJouf Cement
-50%
16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
6
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
A
pr
16
-1
16
N
ov -
16
16
O
ct -
6
ep -
S
6
-1
A
ug
6
-1
Ju l
6
-1
Ju n
6
-1 ay
M
A
pr
-1
6 -1
ar
M
Fe b-
16
6
5
-1
Ja n
-1
ec
15 ov N
D
0%
0
ar
-50%
50%
200
M
0
-40%
100%
400
b-
-30%
150%
600
16
50
200%
800
n-
-20%
250%
Ja
-10%
100
Change %(RHS) 300%
1,000
Fe
0%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,200
5
10%
1,400
-1
20%
150
4
30%
D ec
200
40%
15
Change %(RHS)
ov -
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
N
250
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for November 2016 December 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | November 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Change
Tabuk Cement
600
50%
-20%
400
0%
-40%
200
-50%
-60%
0
Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
0%
N
0% -5%
6 -1
ov
N
O
ct
-1
6
6
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
16
n-
Ju
-1 ov N
N
6
5
-10%
-1
0
ay
-60%
6
200
-1
6
5%
400
-40%
ov
6 O
ct
-1
ep
S
-1
6
6
-1
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
-1
pr
A
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
5
16
Ja
n-
-1
ec
D
ov
-1
5
0
10%
600
M
50
800
6
-20%
100
15%
-1
150
25% 20%
pr
0%
Change %(RHS)
1,000
A
200
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
16
20%
250
1,400 1,200
-1
40%
300
N
60%
b-
Change %(RHS)
ar
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
350
M
City Co CityCement Cement 400
-100%
ov -1 5 ec -1 5 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
16
5
100%
n-
Ja
ec -1
N
D
ov -1
5
0
20%
Fe
20
150%
800
5
40
1,000
16
60
40%
-1
80
Change %(RHS) 200%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
n-
100
1,200
Ja
120
60%
ec
Change %(RHS)
D
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
140
D
160
Hail Cement
6 -1
ov
N
O
ct
-1
6
6
6
-1
ep
S
ug
-1
6
l-1
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
pr
ov N
N
A
-1
5
-10%
-1
6
6
0
-1
ov
6
-1
O
ct
-1
S
ep
ug
-1
6
6
l-1
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
M
ay
-1
pr
A
-1
6 -1
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
5
16
n-
Ja
ec
-1
5 -1 ov
D
-5%
200
ar
-50%
0
400
M
-40%
20
0%
600
16
-30%
40
5%
800
b-
-20%
60
1,000
Fe
-10%
80
15% 10%
16
0%
100
Change %(RHS)
1,200
5
10%
120
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
-1
20%
140
1,600 1,400
n-
40% 30%
160
N
50%
Ja
Change %(RHS)
ec
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
180
D
200
Riyadh Cement 1,700
20%
1,650
6
6
-1
N
ov
6 O
ct
-1
6 S
ep
-1
-1
6
Ju l
A ug
-1
6
Ju n-
16
6
-1
M
ay
-1
pr
A
-1 ov N
N
6
-8%
5
6
6
-6%
1,350
-1
ov
6 O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
ug
-1
6 A
Ju l
-1
6
6
-1
Ju n
6
-1
ay
M
A
pr
-1
6 -1
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
6
Ja n
-1
15
ec -
D
ov
-1
5
-50%
-1
-40%
0
1,400
ar
50
-4%
1,450
M
-30%
-2%
1,500
16
100
0%
1,550
b-
-20%
6%
2%
1,600
Fe
-10%
150
Change %(RHS)
4%
16
0%
200
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
5
10%
250
N
30%
1,750
-1
300
1,800
40%
n-
350
50%
Ja
Change %(RHS)
ec
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
400
D
450
Safwa Cement 80%
6
N
ov -
16
6
-1
O
ct
-1
S
ep
-1
ug
l-1
Ju
A
Ju
n-
-1
M
ay
-1
A
pr
-1
ar
M
b-
Fe
-1
n-
Ja
6 -1
N
ov
16
O
ct -
16
16
S
ug -
ep -
6
A
Ju l
-1
16
Ju
n-
6
16
ay -
M
A
pr
-1
6 -1
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
5
16
n-
Ja
ec
-1
5 -1
6
-60%
6
0
6
-40%
-60%
16
50
6
-20%
-40%
6
100
16
0%
-20%
16
20%
150
0%
5
40%
100
ov
80%
200
20%
N
100% 60%
40%
D
Change %(RHS)
250
150
0
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
350 300
60%
50
400
15
200
5
100%
ov -
Change %(RHS)
N
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
D ec
250
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
RESEARCH DIVISION
Acting Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
sales
brokerage
Brokerage
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
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Thousand Tonne
Cement Dispatches: Decline of 4.1%MoM, and 21.9%YoY; export regulations Dispatches Growth might be lessened: According to the data released by Yamamah cement Co, Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS) cement dispatches for the month of November-2016 stood at 4.2mn tons, 6,000 compared to 5.4mn tons in November-2015, depicting a decline of 21.9%YoY, 5,000 and 4.1%MoM.
Change %(RHS)
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
4,000
Share in Dispatches
On MoM basis, Yanbu cement showed the highest growth of 23.2%MoM followed Regions Nov-15 Nov-16 11M-2016 by Eastern cement which showed growth of 9.7%MoM. On the other hand “Central Region” 27.05% 27.85% 28.98% Southern cement showed a decline of 18.4%MoM followed by Qassim cement “Western Region” 23.08% 27.38% 22.36% “Southern Region” 21.12% 16.49% 18.95% which showed decline of 15.5%. On YoY basis, Yanbu and AlSafwa cement were “Eastern Region” 16.88% 17.72% 17.88% the only companies to show growth in cement dispatches, recording an increase “Northern Region” 11.87% 10.56% 11.83% of 11.3%YoY and 5.0%YoY respectively. Northern cement and Najran cement Key Performance: Data/Ratios witnessed a fall of 50.0%YoY and 49.9%YoY respectively.
Oct-16
Nov-16
29.93% 29.48% 17.83% 15.20% 15.84% 16.17% 23.32% 23.85% 13.08% 15.30%
58.1 10.92 1.88 8.14% -5.50% 12.06% 15.83%
Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research
Invenories Level 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
Oct-16
Nov-16
Sep-16
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
0
Feb-16
5,000
Nov-15
Market Share: Yanbu cement showed an improvement in its market share as it increased from 11.5% in November-2015 to 16.4% in November-2016. Moreover, AlSafwa cement increased its market share from 2.6% to 3.5%. On the other hand, Northern cement company market share declined to 2.6% in November-2016 as compared to 4.0% in November-2015, followed by Najran cement as it declined from 7.4% in November 2015 to 4.7% in November 2016.
Share in Inventory Nov-15 Nov-16
Market Cap(bn) P/E (TTM) P/B Dividend Yield: YTD (%) ROA ROE
Dec-15
Clinker production declined 7.0%MoM, but clinker inventories increased by 2.2%MoM: Clinker inventory continued to increase, reaching a new historical high of 27.7mn ton depicting an increase of 20.4%YoY, due to weak demand and higher production to sales ratio. Southern cement showed an increase of 18.4%MoM in clinker inventory, followed by City cement which showed increase of 7.6%MoM. On the other hand, Arabian and Yanbu cement companies’ clinker inventory witnessed a decrease of 19.9%MoM and 8.1%MoM respectively.
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Dec-15
Overview: The sector’s MoM decline indicates a slowdown in construction activity 0.0% 3,000 during the month. For 11M-2016, Cement sales declined from 55.6mn tons in 2015 -20.0% 2,000 to 51.3mn tons in 2016 depicting a decline of 7.8%YoY, mostly due to weak demand -40.0% and lower awarded contracts, in addition to discontinued projects. According 1,000 to Kahild Al Falih (Minister of Energy), the Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research Energy is working together to ease the restrictions on cement export, which may Share in Dispatches by Regions relieve the pressure on the sector.
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
Change %(RHS)
Key Data Dispatches Region “Central Region”
“Western Region” “Eastern Region” “Southern Region” “Northern Region”
Companies
Oct-16
Nov-15
Nov-16
Yamamah Cement City Cement Qassim Cement Riyadh Cement Total Yanbu Cement Arabian Cement AlSafwa Cement Total Saudi Cement Eastern Cement Total Najran Cement Southern Cement Total Northern Cement AlJouf Cement Tabuk Cement Hail Cement Total Total
442 235 355 295 1,327 560 298 154 1,012 585 207 792 197 608 805 110 136 109 102 457 4,393
492 251 422 295 1,460 620 486 140 1,246 629 282 911 397 743 1,140 218 163 109 151 641 5,398
388 234 300 252 1,174 690 317 147 1,154 520 227 747 199 496 695 109 142 99 95 445 4,215
M/M % change -12.2% -0.4% -15.5% -14.6% -11.5% 23.2% 6.4% -4.5% 14.0% -11.1% 9.7% -5.7% 1.0% -18.4% -13.7% -0.9% 4.4% -9.2% -6.9% -2.6% -4.1%
Y/Y % change -21.1% -6.8% -28.9% -14.6% -19.6% 11.3% -34.8% 5.0% -7.4% -17.3% -19.5% -18.0% -49.9% -33.2% -39.0% -50.0% -12.9% -9.2% -37.1% -30.6% -21.9%
Clinker Inventory Levels 11M-15 5,279 2,373 3,988 3,033 14673 6,348 4,867 1,682 12896 7,012 2,828 9840 4,082 7,711 11793 2,130 1,546 1,186 1,583 6,445 55,646
% 11M-2016 Change 4,983 2,824 3,736 3,319 14,862 5,693 4,107 1,668 11,468 6,774 2,397 9,171 2,709 7,008 9,717 1,761 1,742 1,245 1,319 6,067 51,285
-5.6% 19.0% -6.3% 9.4% 1.3% -10.3% -15.6% -0.8% -11.1% -3.4% -15.2% -6.8% -33.6% -9.1% -17.6% -17.3% 12.6% 5.0% -16.7% -5.9% -7.8%
Oct-16
Nov-15
Nov-16
4,054 1,204 925 1,624 7,807 3,646 653 342 4,641 4,414 1,914 6,328 2,840 1,301 4,141 745 1,140 960 1,311 4,156 27,073
3,441 782 929 1,725 6877 3,250 724 122 4096 3,900 1,459 5359 2,531 1,108 3639 676 601 837 892 3,006 22,977
4,236 1,295 948 1,676 8,155 3,351 523 332 4,206 4,600 1,997 6,597 2,932 1,541 4,473 780 1,052 1,009 1,391 4,232 27,663
M/M % change 23.1% 65.6% 2.0% -2.8% 18.6% 3.1% -27.8% 172.1% 2.7% 17.9% 36.9% 23.1% 15.8% 39.1% 22.9% 15.4% 75.0% 20.5% 55.9% 40.8% 20.4%
Y/Y % change 4.5% 7.6% 2.5% 3.2% 4.5% -8.1% -19.9% -2.9% -9.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 3.2% 18.4% 8.0% 4.7% -7.7% 5.1% 6.1% 1.8% 2.2%
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
1
Analyst
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
Waleed Al-jubayr
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for November 2016 December 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | November 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Company News & Events Date of Company Name Announcement
Corporate Event & Announcement
Tabuk Cement
29-09-2016
Tabuk Cement Co. will begin commercial operations at its second production line in Q2-2017. Production, which was set to begin in the fourth quarter of this year, has been delayed due certain shortfalls in operating with full capacity.
Qassim Cement
06-10-2016
Qassim Cement Co.’s board of directors has recommended distributing a 10% cash dividend of SAR 1 per share for Q3-2016.
Umm Al-Qura
18-09-2016
Umm Al-Qura Cement Co. started commercial operations at its new Portland cement production line. The cement producer added that it would be difficult to measure the financial impact at this stage due to supply and demand factors.
13-11-2016
Al Jouf Cement Co. said it will shut down its first production line from 15th Nov, until 30th of November, 2016 for scheduled maintenance of the furnace. The financial impact of this shutdown will be reflected on the fourth quarter financials.
Arabian Cement
21-11-2016
Arabian Cement Co. has said that construction work is still ongoing at its clinker grinder facility in Rabigh and that commercial operations are scheduled to start in Q4-2017. Relevant financial impact of the new facility can’t be determined at this time, as it depends on market demand and supply.
City Cement
05-11-2016
City Cement Co. has extended the trial run of its grinding unit by another three months, adding that the delay will not increase the project’s total cost.
Yamama Cement
17-10-2016
Yamama Cement Co.’s board of directors voted against distributing a cash dividend for the third quarter of 2016. The board said it wants to maintain liquidity needed to fund its new cement plants.
AlJouf Cement
Source: The Saudi Stock Exchange - Tadawul
Share in Dispatches (November 2016)
Market Share in Saudi Cement Sector (%)
Yanbu Cement
15.0%
90.0%
13.0%
70.0%
11%
Saudi Cement
25%
Southern Cement
12%
Yamama Cement
42.5%
7%
Eastern Cement Najran Cement Others
14%
5.0%
16.3% 1.0%
5.9%
3.1% 9.0% -
3.0%
5%
16.5% -
8% 9%
-1.0%
Share in dispatches- November 2015(LHS)
11.6%
Arabian Southern Tabuk Cement Cement Cement
10.0% 19.4% -
35.8% Yamama Saudi Eastern Qassim Yanbu Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement
30.0%
19.4% 9.4%
14.5% -
1.0%
9%
50.0%
34.5%
9.0% 7.0%
Arabian Cement Qassim Cement
11.0%
36.0% -
10.0% -30.0%
Riyadh Najran City Northern AlJouf AlSafwa Hail -50.0% Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement Cement
Share in dispatches- November 2016(LHS)
% Change in Share in Dispatches (RHS)
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital
2
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for November 2016 December 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | November 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Change
Yamama Cement 40%
4,000
0% 20% -
1,500
N
ov
-1
6
6
6
-1 ct
O
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
A
ug
16
l-1
Ju
Ju
n-
-1 ay
-1 ov N
N
6
-8%
6
0
5
6
6
-1
ov
6
-1
ct
O
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
Ju
n-
16
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
-1
pr
A
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
16
5 -1
n-
ec
D
Ja
5 -1 ov N
-6%
500
M
-30%
0
-4%
1,000
6
-20%
100
-2%
-10%
0%
-1
200
2,000
pr
300
2%
2,500
A
400
6%
3,000
0%
16
500
8% 4%
3,500
-1
10%
Change %(RHS)
4,000
ar
20%
600
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
4,500
M
700
5,000
16
30%
b-
Change %(RHS)
-10%
0
n-
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
-5%
1,000
ov -1 5
Saudi Co SaudiCement Cement 800
0%
2,000
N
Fe b
-1
n-
Ja
ov -
D ec
N
-1 6 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l- 1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
60% -
5
0
16
40% -
15
100
3,000
Ja
200
5%
Fe
300
10%
D
400
Change %(RHS)
ec -1 5 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
20%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
5
500
5,000
-1
600
60%
ec
Change %(RHS)
D
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
700
Qassim Cement 50%
Change %(RHS)
40%
400
30%
350
20%
300 200 100
0%
-20%
400
-5%
200
-10%
0
-15%
N
ov
-1
6
6
6
-1 ct
O
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
A
ug
16
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
A
pr
16
-1
ar
M
b-
16
n-
Ja
D
Fe
5 -1 ov N
5
6 -1
ov
N
O
ct
-1
6
6
6
-1
S
ep
-1
ug
6
l-1
Ju
A
6
Ju
n-
16
6
-1
M
ay
-1
6 -1
pr
A
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
16
5 -1
n-
Ja
D
ec
-1
5
-50%
ov N
5%
-40%
0
10%
600
-30%
50
1,000
15%
800
-10%
150
Change %(RHS)
0%
10%
250
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,200
-1
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
450
ec
500
Souhtern Cement
-10%
600
-20%
400
-30%
200
6
6
-1
N
ov
6
-1
O ct
6 S
ep
-1
6 A
ug -1
16
l-1
Ju
Ju
n-
6
6
-1
M
ay
-1
A
pr
-1
ar
M
-1 ov N
6
-40% 16
0
5
N ov -1 5 D ec -1 5 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
0
800
b-
100
1,000
16
200
0%
n-
300
10%
1,200
Ja
400
30% 20%
1,400
Fe
500
Change %(RHS)
1,600
5
600
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,800
-1
700
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%
ec
Change %(RHS)
D
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
900
800
Yanbu Cement
6
6
N ov
-1
6
-1
O ct
6 S
ep
-1
6 A
ug -1
16
Ju
Ju n-
l-1
6
6
-1
M
ay
-1
pr
A
M
ar
-1
6
-6%
16
-4%
0
b-
5 ov -1 N
-2%
500
16
-60%
0%
1,000
n-
0
2%
1,500
Ja
-40%
D ec -1 5 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
100
4%
2,000
Fe
-20%
200
6%
2,500
5
0%
300
10% 8%
-1
20%
400
Change %(RHS)
3,000
ec
500
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
3,500
D
40%
4,000
5
60%
600
3
80%
-1
Change %(RHS)
700
N ov
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
800
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for November 2016 December 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | November 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Change
Arabian Cement
Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
2% 1% 0%
500
-1%
6 -1
ov
N
ct
-1
6
6
S
O
6
-1
ep
6
-1
A
ug
16
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
6
-1 ay
M
-1 ov N
N
-1
5
-2%
6
0
6
6
-1
ov
6
O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
A
ug
16
Ju
l-1
6
M
Ju
n-
6
-1
ay
6
-1
-1
pr
A
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
5
16
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
ov
-1
5
-40%
3%
1,000
pr
0
6% 4%
1,500
A
-30%
7% 5%
16
50
Change %(RHS)
2,000
-1
-20%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
ar
-10%
2,500
M
0%
100
-60%
16
10%
150
-40%
0
b-
40% 20%
200
N
50% 30%
250
-20%
100
n-
300
0%
200
Ja
Change %(RHS)
20%
300
Fe
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
40%
400
N
Eastern Co EasternCement Cement 350
60%
500
ov -1 5
5
16
n-
Ja
ec -1
N
D
ov -1
5
0
600
ec -1 5 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
100
100%
D
200
Change %(RHS)
80%
5
300
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
800 700
-1
400
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60%
ec
Change %(RHS)
500
D
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
600
Najran Cement
2,500
20%
2,000
6 -1
ov
N
ct
-1
6
6
S
O
6
-1
ep
6
-1
A
ug
16
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
-1 ay
-1
M
D
pr
-1 ov N
N
6
-6%
6
-4%
0
5
500
A
6
6
-1
ov
6
-1 ct
O
6
S
ep
-1
6
-1
A
ug
16
Ju
l-1
6
Ju
n-
6
-1
ay
M
A
pr
-1
6 -1
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
5
16
n-
Ja
-1
ec
D
ov
-1
5
-60%
16
0
-2%
-1
50
0%
1,000
ar
-40%
2%
1,500
M
100
4%
b-
-20%
10%
6%
16
0%
150
N
40%
Change %(RHS)
8%
n-
200
3,000
Ja
250
60%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
Fe
300
3,500
5
350
80%
-1
Change %(RHS)
400
ec
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
450
Northern Cement Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
800
Change %(RHS)
60% 50%
6
16
N
ov -
6
-1 ct
O
-1
ep
S
ug -
A
l-1
-1
Ju
M
ay
Ju n
-1
-1
A
pr
-1
M ar
b-
n-
Ja
Fe
ov N
16
-30%
6
-20%
0
6
-10%
100
6
0%
200
6
10%
300
6
20%
400
16
30%
500
16
40%
600
5
700
15
6 -1
N
ov
-1 ct
O
-1
S
ep
-1
A
ug
-1
Ju l
-1
Ju n
-1
M
ay
-1
pr
A
ar -
M
b-
Fe
-1
Ja n
ec -
-1 ov N
D
6
-40%
6
0
6
-30%
6
50
6
-20%
6
100
6
-10%
16
150
16
0%
6
200
15
10%
5
250
900
-1
20%
ec
Change %(RHS)
D
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
300
AlJouf Cement
-50%
16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
6
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
A
pr
16
-1
16
N
ov -
16
16
O
ct -
6
ep -
S
6
-1
A
ug
6
-1
Ju l
6
-1
Ju n
6
-1 ay
M
A
pr
-1
6 -1
ar
M
Fe b-
16
6
5
-1
Ja n
-1
ec
15 ov N
D
0%
0
ar
-50%
50%
200
M
0
-40%
100%
400
b-
-30%
150%
600
16
50
200%
800
n-
-20%
250%
Ja
-10%
100
Change %(RHS) 300%
1,000
Fe
0%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
1,200
5
10%
1,400
-1
20%
150
4
30%
D ec
200
40%
15
Change %(RHS)
ov -
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
N
250
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
Cement Dispatches for November 2016 December 2016 Saudi Cement Sector | Monthly Report | November 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Dispatches & Change
Tabuk Cement
600
50%
-20%
400
0%
-40%
200
-50%
-60%
0
Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
0%
N
0% -5%
6 -1
ov
N
O
ct
-1
6
6
6
-1
S
ep
6
-1
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
16
n-
Ju
-1 ov N
N
6
5
-10%
-1
0
ay
-60%
6
200
-1
6
5%
400
-40%
ov
6 O
ct
-1
ep
S
-1
6
6
-1
l-1
ug
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
-1
pr
A
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
5
16
Ja
n-
-1
ec
D
ov
-1
5
0
10%
600
M
50
800
6
-20%
100
15%
-1
150
25% 20%
pr
0%
Change %(RHS)
1,000
A
200
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
16
20%
250
1,400 1,200
-1
40%
300
N
60%
b-
Change %(RHS)
ar
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
350
M
City Co CityCement Cement 400
-100%
ov -1 5 ec -1 5 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 A pr -1 6 M ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 6 A ug -1 6 S ep -1 6 O ct -1 6 N ov -1 6
16
5
100%
n-
Ja
ec -1
N
D
ov -1
5
0
20%
Fe
20
150%
800
5
40
1,000
16
60
40%
-1
80
Change %(RHS) 200%
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
n-
100
1,200
Ja
120
60%
ec
Change %(RHS)
D
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
140
D
160
Hail Cement
6 -1
ov
N
O
ct
-1
6
6
6
-1
ep
S
ug
-1
6
l-1
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
-1
M
ay
6
-1
pr
ov N
N
A
-1
5
-10%
-1
6
6
0
-1
ov
6
-1
O
ct
-1
S
ep
ug
-1
6
6
l-1
Ju
A
6
16
Ju
n-
6
M
ay
-1
pr
A
-1
6 -1
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
5
16
n-
Ja
ec
-1
5 -1 ov
D
-5%
200
ar
-50%
0
400
M
-40%
20
0%
600
16
-30%
40
5%
800
b-
-20%
60
1,000
Fe
-10%
80
15% 10%
16
0%
100
Change %(RHS)
1,200
5
10%
120
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
-1
20%
140
1,600 1,400
n-
40% 30%
160
N
50%
Ja
Change %(RHS)
ec
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
180
D
200
Riyadh Cement 1,700
20%
1,650
6
6
-1
N
ov
6 O
ct
-1
6 S
ep
-1
-1
6
Ju l
A ug
-1
6
Ju n-
16
6
-1
M
ay
-1
pr
A
-1 ov N
N
6
-8%
5
6
6
-6%
1,350
-1
ov
6 O
ct
-1
6
-1
S
ep
ug
-1
6 A
Ju l
-1
6
6
-1
Ju n
6
-1
ay
M
A
pr
-1
6 -1
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
6
Ja n
-1
15
ec -
D
ov
-1
5
-50%
-1
-40%
0
1,400
ar
50
-4%
1,450
M
-30%
-2%
1,500
16
100
0%
1,550
b-
-20%
6%
2%
1,600
Fe
-10%
150
Change %(RHS)
4%
16
0%
200
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
5
10%
250
N
30%
1,750
-1
300
1,800
40%
n-
350
50%
Ja
Change %(RHS)
ec
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
400
D
450
Safwa Cement 80%
6
N
ov -
16
6
-1
O
ct
-1
S
ep
-1
ug
l-1
Ju
A
Ju
n-
-1
M
ay
-1
A
pr
-1
ar
M
b-
Fe
-1
n-
Ja
6 -1
N
ov
16
O
ct -
16
16
S
ug -
ep -
6
A
Ju l
-1
16
Ju
n-
6
16
ay -
M
A
pr
-1
6 -1
M
ar
16
Fe
b-
5
16
n-
Ja
ec
-1
5 -1
6
-60%
6
0
6
-40%
-60%
16
50
6
-20%
-40%
6
100
16
0%
-20%
16
20%
150
0%
5
40%
100
ov
80%
200
20%
N
100% 60%
40%
D
Change %(RHS)
250
150
0
Clinker Inventories(1000 Ton)(LHS)
350 300
60%
50
400
15
200
5
100%
ov -
Change %(RHS)
N
Dispatches (1000 Ton)(LHS)
D ec
250
Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research
© All rights reserved
RESEARCH DIVISION
Acting Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
sales
brokerage
Brokerage
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
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