Normalized Deficit Index: Using 104 years of climate data Fraction of average annual rainfall needed to meet the demands
Considering within year rainfall patterns
Considering 104 years of climate variability & effects of multiyear droughts
“GRACE Satellite detects largest groundwater mining Operation in the world” The E-W band depicting the excessive groundwater extraction is the food bowl region of the country
One of the most heavily populated (600 million people) & intensely irrigated regions in world
Source: Tiwari, et al., 2009
Current Cropping Pattern
Rainfed Results – Optimal Cropping Pattern
Spatial Income distribution - Much of the country is benefiting from the new cropping patterns
Negative due to lower comparative yields and prices of oilseeds & pulses in the region
Fractional increase/decrease from current income
Shadow Price distribution – change in net agri revenue (Rs/Hectare) Rainfed – Area Constraint
Irrigation Constraint
0 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 150 150 - 500
Rainfed and Irrigated – Comparative Results
Current Practice
Optimum pattern Optimum pattern under rainfed under irrigated
National Agricultural Revenue ($ billions)
8.58
17.75
22.14
Irrigation Water Requirement (1000 billion liters)