Crop Weather Outlook 2012
Crop Weather Outlook 2012 What Follows A Strong La Niña? Elwynn Taylor www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor 1/12/2012 US Corn 147.2 BPA (9.24K/ha)
soy 41.5BPA (2.79K/ha)
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/extremes/summer-2011-days-over-100.png
Madden-Julian
• Contributing to the weather today • wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/
Daily T Deviation from Average Dec 2010 to Aug 2011, Dec 2011 to now 17 Mar
• • • •
It was not hot all the time It was La Niña La Niña T is more extreme Last year (2011) we did not have+30
• Central Iowa corn yield trend (+2.05Bu/yr) exceeds the National (+1.87Bu/yr), but lags the state (+2.10 Bu/yr).
WC IA
• West Central Iowa trend = 2.35Bu/yr.
200
180
160
140
-- 18 yrs --
-- 16 yrs --
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
7.00
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
6.50 6.00
$ per bushel
5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50
Season-average Price Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cost per Bushel
11 20
08 20
05 20
02 20
99 19
96 19
93 19
90 19
87 19
84 19
81 19
78 19
75 19
19
72
1.00
Chad E Heart
stable period 2
stable period 3
stable period 4
Reminder: All crop forecasts in this report are based on conditions on August 1 and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The next district corn and soybean production forecasts, based on conditions as of September 1, will be released on September 12.
157.5
172 http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Iowa/index.asp#.html
Record year 2011
• Edging records of mid-teens &50s for old stations
Weather Stations Near You
• Sheldon: Hot July & normal rain to mid-July • http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
Normal is 10.06 inch
Normal is 12.06inch
Normal is 14.55 inch
• Iowa: Precipitation between dates (2012 to date) • http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
When I was a kid
1947
1983
Iowa State University Extension
COLD
WARM
Warm Winters
Cold Winters
Sea Surface Anomaly 2012
• http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
• Past 3 La Niña peaked below 15 • Past 3 dropped to negative values • World weather stayed La Niña this time
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current//soi-1977-1984.shtml
Some relief
•
Roots could be very important
I Remember Algona 2002
• •
Our creek is dry for the 1st time in 100+ years ! Heat stress was normal after silking, Gdd got bhind, rain was ample in Aug
La Niña • • • •
La Niña began June 2010 La Niña peaked Nov 1, 2010 2nd strongest since 1950 by time & strength. Weakened (but did not establish neutral condition) 14 June - 9 Sep 2011 • Strengthened to Moderate La Niña 1 Oct 2011 • Ended (likely) 22 Apr 2012…. Then ?
11-month outlook based on Risk Wheel Decision Tool persistent climate anomalies
70% risk of below trend
53% risk of above
70% risk of above
• Chance of U.S. Corn yield 110% (Green) for (left to right) La Niña, neutral, El Niño summers. • Like analysis was done for ENSO+PDO+NAO combinations. • Corn buyers/sellers can manage the risk of crop yield exceeding or falling below government determined demand levels. IS
U
TWW Corn-Soy Outlook • • • •
TWW (Taylor, Wisner, Wolter) Taylor likely crop yield per acre Wisner likely Dec price at harvest time Wolter likely El Niño/La Niña summer condition
La Niña Outlook
9 May 2012
• 30% Chance La Niña persists into Summer • 20% Chance El Niño begins immediately • 50% Chance of Neutral ? ? • • • • • •
Minimal chance of Neutral SOI 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $6.60 20% Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $5.00 50% Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15 $ from Wisner 2/9/2012 http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35
Based on the evolution of recent atmosphereocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from 50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña conditions into the upcoming summer. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a switch to El Niño by mid-2012. … ([email protected]), (303) 497-6340 Today DEC corn $5.18
Nov Soy $13.29
Preliminary 2012 Corn Risk 8 Mar 2012
130
22%
145
148 $6.60
177
161
• • • •
180
29%
168 $5.00 164.2 $5.15
DEC12 518 ½ 10:30am 5/9/12
ENSO odds: Wolter, Contract $: Wisner, Yield odds: Taylor Wolter: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ Taylor: twitter.com/elwynntaylor Wisner: www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Recovery of La Nina (termed a recovery as the historically mandatory 90-day period of neutral [blue zone] was not achieved). This is the 90-day moving average plot that serves as the forecast for the behavior of the “official” 152-day centered moving average. The 152-day entered neutral on 13 June 2011 & recovered to La Nina 9 Sep 2011, as the neutral period was less than 90 days the standard for a neutral condition was not achieved.
• An Important storm has helped but not corrected the dryness in S Brazil & in Argentina (dry since Nov).
• http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/latest_cmoll.gif
Next 10 days: Warmish
SOI
The sea surface warming off Argentina has been significant over the past 20 days Mar 19, 2012 0.82 (SOI tending, as of now, toward neutral ) http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
soy 41.5BPA (2.79K/ha)
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/extremes/summer-2011-days-over-100.png
Madden-Julian
• Contributing to the weather today • wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/
Daily T Deviation from Average Dec 2010 to Aug 2011, Dec 2011 to now 17 Mar
• • • •
It was not hot all the time It was La Niña La Niña T is more extreme Last year (2011) we did not have+30
• Central Iowa corn yield trend (+2.05Bu/yr) exceeds the National (+1.87Bu/yr), but lags the state (+2.10 Bu/yr).
WC IA
• West Central Iowa trend = 2.35Bu/yr.
200
180
160
140
-- 18 yrs --
-- 16 yrs --
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
7.00
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
6.50 6.00
$ per bushel
5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50
Season-average Price Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cost per Bushel
11 20
08 20
05 20
02 20
99 19
96 19
93 19
90 19
87 19
84 19
81 19
78 19
75 19
19
72
1.00
Chad E Heart
stable period 2
stable period 3
stable period 4
Reminder: All crop forecasts in this report are based on conditions on August 1 and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The next district corn and soybean production forecasts, based on conditions as of September 1, will be released on September 12.
157.5
172 http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Iowa/index.asp#.html
Record year 2011
• Edging records of mid-teens &50s for old stations
Weather Stations Near You
• Sheldon: Hot July & normal rain to mid-July • http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
Normal is 10.06 inch
Normal is 12.06inch
Normal is 14.55 inch
• Iowa: Precipitation between dates (2012 to date) • http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
When I was a kid
1947
1983
Iowa State University Extension
COLD
WARM
Warm Winters
Cold Winters
Sea Surface Anomaly 2012
• http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
• Past 3 La Niña peaked below 15 • Past 3 dropped to negative values • World weather stayed La Niña this time
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current//soi-1977-1984.shtml
Some relief
•
Roots could be very important
I Remember Algona 2002
• •
Our creek is dry for the 1st time in 100+ years ! Heat stress was normal after silking, Gdd got bhind, rain was ample in Aug
La Niña • • • •
La Niña began June 2010 La Niña peaked Nov 1, 2010 2nd strongest since 1950 by time & strength. Weakened (but did not establish neutral condition) 14 June - 9 Sep 2011 • Strengthened to Moderate La Niña 1 Oct 2011 • Ended (likely) 22 Apr 2012…. Then ?
11-month outlook based on Risk Wheel Decision Tool persistent climate anomalies
70% risk of below trend
53% risk of above
70% risk of above
• Chance of U.S. Corn yield 110% (Green) for (left to right) La Niña, neutral, El Niño summers. • Like analysis was done for ENSO+PDO+NAO combinations. • Corn buyers/sellers can manage the risk of crop yield exceeding or falling below government determined demand levels. IS
U
TWW Corn-Soy Outlook • • • •
TWW (Taylor, Wisner, Wolter) Taylor likely crop yield per acre Wisner likely Dec price at harvest time Wolter likely El Niño/La Niña summer condition
La Niña Outlook
9 May 2012
• 30% Chance La Niña persists into Summer • 20% Chance El Niño begins immediately • 50% Chance of Neutral ? ? • • • • • •
Minimal chance of Neutral SOI 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $6.60 20% Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $5.00 50% Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15 $ from Wisner 2/9/2012 http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35
Based on the evolution of recent atmosphereocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from 50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña conditions into the upcoming summer. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a switch to El Niño by mid-2012. … ([email protected]), (303) 497-6340 Today DEC corn $5.18
Nov Soy $13.29
Preliminary 2012 Corn Risk 8 Mar 2012
130
22%
145
148 $6.60
177
161
• • • •
180
29%
168 $5.00 164.2 $5.15
DEC12 518 ½ 10:30am 5/9/12
ENSO odds: Wolter, Contract $: Wisner, Yield odds: Taylor Wolter: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ Taylor: twitter.com/elwynntaylor Wisner: www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Recovery of La Nina (termed a recovery as the historically mandatory 90-day period of neutral [blue zone] was not achieved). This is the 90-day moving average plot that serves as the forecast for the behavior of the “official” 152-day centered moving average. The 152-day entered neutral on 13 June 2011 & recovered to La Nina 9 Sep 2011, as the neutral period was less than 90 days the standard for a neutral condition was not achieved.
• An Important storm has helped but not corrected the dryness in S Brazil & in Argentina (dry since Nov).
• http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/latest_cmoll.gif
Next 10 days: Warmish
SOI
The sea surface warming off Argentina has been significant over the past 20 days Mar 19, 2012 0.82 (SOI tending, as of now, toward neutral ) http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
