Ontario Wheat Crop Outlook

Ontario
Wheat
Crop Outlook Ian
Carter Fort
Myers,
FL March
2009

2008
in
Review • 1,225,000
acres
winter
wheat
harvested • 81.6
bu/acre
yield • 2.7
million
tonnes
(100
million
bushels) • 170,000
acres
spring
wheat
harvested • 51.2
bu/acre
yield • 236,884
tonnes
(8.7
million
bushels) • 2.93
million
tonnes
total
wheat
producHon

2009
Ontario
Es;mated
Produc;on • 950,000
acres
of
winter
wheat
planted • 2.1
tonnes/acre
=
2
million
tonnes • 77
bus/acre
=
73.5
million
bushels • PlanHng
condiHons
not
as
good
as
last
year • Excessive
moisture,
cold
condiHons • Expect
higher
risk
of
winter
kill

Ontario
Es;mated
Produc;on

Wheat Class

2008/09 Projected 2009/10 Bushels (mil) Tonnes Bushels (mil) Tonnes Soft Red Winter 74.41 2,025,000 75% 60.26 1,640,000 82% Soft White Winter 9.92 270,000 10% 5.14 140,000 7% Hard Red Winter 14.88 405,000 15% 8.08 220,000 11% 99.21 2,700,000 73.49 2,000,000

Ontario
Wheat
U;liza;on • 600,000
tonnes
used
by
the
domesHc
flour, feed
and
seed
industries • 400,000
tonnes
of
wheat
is
exported
to
the nearby
US • 1
million
tonne
overseas
export
opportunity
in 2009

Ontario
Farmers
Like
Growing
Wheat!

Provincial Winter Wheat Yields 1981 - 2008

90 80

Yield (bu/ac)

70 60 50

y = 1.1096x - 2149.6

40

2009 trendline yield 79.6 bu/ac

30 20 1980

1982

1984 1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Years

Thank
you!

1998

2000

Updated: December 3, 2008

2002

2004 2006

2008

2010