Demographics
Agenda Item 8
WICHITA AREA METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATION November 17, 2009 TO: Technical Advisory Committee FROM: Kimberly Spielman Planning Analyst RE: Review & File: Development & Transportation Trends Report 2009. WAMPO produces the Development & Transportation Trends Report on an annual basis. The report documents development activity and projects future growth in the WAMPO region (Attachments 1‐4). Development activity has a direct impact on the transportation system, from the number of trips generated, to the number of vehicle miles traveled. The purpose of the report is to provide a view of the complex interactions between transportation and land use/development. The information from the report will feed into the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) 2035 and used as the building blocks for the Travel Demand Model (TDM). RECOMMENDED ACTION(S): 1) None. Attachment(s): 1) Introduction & Demographics. 2) Subdivision Activity. 3) Buildable Vacant Lot Activity. 4) Building Activity.
Agenda Item Attachment
Development & Transportation Trends Report 2009 (based upon 2008 data)
October 2009
This document was prepared with financial assistance from the Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administrationof the United States Department of Transportation.
8 1
Agenda Item Attachment
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
II
INTRODUCTION
1
DEMOGRAPHICS
2
8 1
POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS 3 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES
5
ANNEXATIONS
7
SUBDIVISION ACTIVITY
9
WHY SUBDIVISION ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT FOR TRANSPORTATION PLANNING 10 PLATTING AND LOT SPLITS
10
SUBDIVISION ACTIVITY IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION
18
BUILDABLE VACANT LOT ACTIVITY
21
BUILDING LOT INVENTORY
23
BUILDING ACTIVITY
31
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS
32
RESIDENTIAL PERMIT ACTIVITY IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION 40 COMMERCIAL BUILDING PERMITS
43
COMMERCIAL PERMIT ACTIVITY IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION 50
Wichita-Sedgwick County Development Trends Report—2009
I
Agenda Item Attachment Table 1.
WAMPO Region Population Projection
4
Table 2A.
2008 Sedgwick County Area Residential Sales
5
Table 2B.
2003 - 2007 Sedgwick County Area Average Residential Sales
6
Table 3.
WAMPO Region Annexation Activity
7
Table 4
WAMPO Region Residential Platting and Lot Split Activity
15
Table 5.
WAMPO Region Commercial/Office and Industrial Platting and Lot Split Activity
16
Table 6.
Residential Platting and Lot Split Activity by School District
17
Table 7.
Residential Buildable Lots Added by 2030 Urban Growth Sub-Area
23
Residential Building Permits Issued by 2030 Urban Growth Sub-Area
23
Residential Buildable Lots Available by 2030 Urban Growth Sub-Area
23
2008 Single-Family Residential Buildable Lot Supply by 2030 Wichita Urbanized Growth Sub-Area
24
Table 8.
Table 9.
Table 10.
Table 11.
2008 Vacant Single-Family Residential Lot Activity by Wichita 2030 Urban Growth Sub-Area
26 & 27
Table 12.
WAMPO Region 2008 Residential Building Activity
35
Table 13.
2008 Net Residential Units Added in Unincorporated Areas by Comprehensive Plan Growth Area
36
Table 14.
Wichita New Residential Building Permits by Type
37
Table 15.
2008 Residential Addition and Remodel Totals by Comprehensive Plan Growth Area
38
2008 Net Residential Units Added and Full-Time Enrollment Changes (For School Districts Serving the WAMPO Region)
39
WAMPO Region 2008 Commercial Projects by Comprehensive Plan Growth Area
44
Table 18.
The 20 Largest Building Projects of 2008 in the WAMPO Region
47
Table 19.
2008 Wichita Retail: New Building, Addition, Remodel
Table 16.
Table 17.
Wichita-Sedgwick County Development Trends Report—2009
8 1
II
Agenda Item Attachment
Table 20.
Table 21.
Table 22.
Table 23.
48
2008 Wichita Office: New Building, Addition, Remodel and Demolition Totals
48
2008 Wichita Industrial/Warehouse: New Building, Addition, Remodel and Demolition Totals
48
2008 Wichita Institutional: New Building, Addition, Remodel and Demolition Totals
48
2008 Commercial Projects by School District (For School Districts Serving the WAMPO Region)
49
Figure 1.
Population Change in the WAMPO Region
3
Figure 2.
Number of Homes Sold In Sedgwick County
5
Figure 3.
Statistical Reporting Areas (Wichita Area Association of Realtors)
6
Figure 4.
School Districts Serving the WAMPO Region
8
Figure 5.
2003 - 2008 Residential Subdivision Activity in the WAMPO Region 11
Figure 6.
2003 - 2008 Commercial Subdivision Activity in the WAMPO Region 12
Figure 7.
Wichita and Small Cities 2030 Urban Growth Areas (2005 Update)
13
Figure 8.
WAMPO Region Residential Platting and Lot Splits
15
Figure 9.
WAMPO Region Commercial/Office, Industrial Platting & Lot Splits 16
Figure 10.
2003 - 2008 Commercial and Residential Subdivision Activity And Major Road Impacts
19
Total Single-Family Vacant Buildable Lots in the Wichita Urbanized Area
24
Vacant Buildable Lot Activity by 2030 Wichita Urbanized Growth Sub-area
25
Figure 13.
2008 Vacant Buildable Single-Family Lots in Wichita
29
Figure 14.
2008 Residential Construction & Demolition
33
Figure 15.
WAMPO Region 2003 - 2008 Net Residential Units
35
Figure 16.
City of Wichita - New Residential Units 2003 - 2008
37
Figure 17.
2003 - 2008 Residential Construction & Major Road Segment Impacts
41
Figure 11.
Figure 12.
III
and Demolition Totals
Wichita-Sedgwick County Development Trends Report—2009
8 1
Agenda Item Attachment Figure 18.
2008 Commercial/Industrial Construction Valuation
45
Figure 19.
WAMPO Region 2003 - 2008 Total Commercial Valuations
44
Figure 20.
2003 - 2008 Commercial/Industrial Construction Activity & Major Road Segment Impacts
51
2003 - 2008 Cumulative Residential & Commercial Building Permit & Subdivision Activity
52
Figure 22.
Sedgwick County & Butler County Maintained Road Network
53
Figure 23.
Wichita Transit Routes & Dedicated Bicycle Facilities
54
Figure 24.
WAMPO Region Railroad Network
55
Figure 21.
Wichita-Sedgwick County Development Trends Report—2009
IV
8 1
Introduction Purpose of this Document The Development and Transportation Trends report is designed to be a one stop look at development activity within the Wichita Area Metropolitan Planning Organization’s (WAMPO) planning area and the impact of that activity upon the transportation system within the planning area. The data within this report serves as the building blocks for travel demand modeling and feeds into projections of future growth for the region and the impacts of that growth on the transportation system. Area Covered The WAMPO planning area covers all of Sedgwick County plus the city of Andover and its environs within Butler County and the Sumner County portion of the city of Mulvane and its surrounding area. The included portion of Butler County encompasses approximately 25 square miles, and the included portion of Sumner County encompasses approximately 2.5 square miles. How this Information Works With Transportation Development activity is a reflection of population growth and economic development resulting in employment. These factors have direct impacts on the use of the transportation system within the region. Households generate trips to work as well as trips to patronize businesses. Work places also generate business to business trips in order to distribute goods and services to each other. These trips contribute to congestion levels within the transportation system and the need to make improvements to it. While the primary mode of transportation is automobiles on roads, other modes such as public transit, bicycles, pedestrian, etc. can be evaluated with this trends information as well.
WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
Agenda Item Attachment
8 1
This data has been compiled and used for many years to develop projections and do analysis for transportation purposes including development of long range transportation plans such as the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) and the South Area Transportation Study (SATS). By adding this information to this annual report WAMPO hopes that a better sense of the impacts of development on transportation can be shared with a broader public. WAMPO will also be able to better maintain a record of its monitoring activities and create more transparency regarding transportation issues within the region. Some important data is in the process of being developed and documented, particularly for the analysis of commercial building activity. It may take some time before a better in-depth trend analysis of commercial building activity can be completed. Also, better geographic information system (GIS) data needs to be obtained for the portions of Butler County and Sumner County within the WAMPO region. In the future, other transportation trend data will be added to this report (such as vehicle miles traveled and commute times). As an example, population in Sedgwick County grew from 452,869 people in 2000 to about 482,360 in 2008 (an additional 29,490 persons). As result of this and associated economic activity, daily vehicle miles travelled grew from 10,369,300 to 12,441,800 (or an additional 2,072,500 daily vehicle miles) during the same period. This not only requires the building of new roads to get to and from new homes and businesses, but also improving existing roads to accommodate new traffic. WAMPO will be conducting studies to obtain more geographically precise data for the entire WAMPO region and compare it to development activity compiled in this report to improve its modeling and analysis abilities and help with the Congestion Mitigation Plan.
1
Introduction (cont.) As WAMPO’s work process continues to change, so will this document. WAMPO has some work items on the horizon that will aid in identifying travel information, such as regional travel trends, travel times, pavement conditions, etc. that will likely become part of this report. WAMPO also produces a congestion report as part of the Congestion Management Process (CMP) that can be integrated into this report. As data is compiled and trends can be synthesized, this report will
Agenda Item Attachment
provide an outlet to disseminate this travel information. This information, along with the topics already addressed in this report, will hopefully provide the public with a more comprehensive view of the complex interactions between transportation and land use/development. WAMPO will continue to look for ways of improving this report and making it more useful with this focus in mind.
Demographics 2008 Demographic Highlights 1.
2.
3.
4.
2
Wichita's population at the end of 2008 is estimated at 362,245, an increase of 17,961 since 2000. Sedgwick County has experienced an increase of 29,491 since 2000, for a 2008 population of 482,360. The total WAMPO region has increased by 33,220 since 2000 to reach a 2008 population of 493,790. The Wichita Area Association of Realtors figures show 7,668 homes totaling $1.12 billion sold in Sedgwick County in 2008. This is down 19 percent from homes sold in 2007, and is 11% lower than the five-year average. The average price for homes sold in Sedgwick County in 2008 was approximately $145,950. This is 9% higher than 2007 figures. Wichita’s incorporated area grew to 163.3 square miles in 2008. All other cities in Sedgwick County grew to a total of 65.7 square miles. Andover, in Butler County, has 10.0 square miles within its city limits.
WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
8 1
Agenda Item Attachment
Demographics POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS Table 1 presents 2000 and 2007 Census numbers along with 2035 projections for all cities in Sedgwick County plus the city of Andover in Butler County. The 2035 projections are the same projections used for the 2035 Metropolitan Transportation Plan 2035 (MTP) now under development. The projections anticipate moderate growth for the region through the year 2035, with over half of the new growth occurring by 2020. Growth rates are also shown in Table 1 for the estimates and projections with 2000 Census numbers as the starting point. Household size and owner occupancy data are obtained from 2000 Census figures for each jurisdiction within the WAMPO region along with building permit data to calculate population growth. The majority of population growth in the region occurred in the urbanizing fringe portions of Sedgwick County adjacent to cities. As a result of city’s continuing annexations, the unincorporated areas of the Sedgwick County continue to experience a net decline in population. Total WAMPO region 2008 population is estimated at 493,790. Wichita’s population at the end of 2008 is estimated at 362,245, and Sedgwick County’s population is estimated at 482,360 at the end of 2008. These estimates are consistent with the trend expected from 2005 and 2010 projections, and reflect the use of the Census Bureau’s July, 2007 estimate which incorporates other factors such as the downturn in employment earlier in the decade, causing some loss of population to Wichita and Sedgwick County at that time. While these estimates reflect growth rates that are in line with previous projections, the current economic downturn is likely to bring another population decline for the near term. Currently, there is not enough data to measure this latest development.
8 1
Figure 1
For the near future, Wichita’s predominantly east -west growth pattern is expected to continue. According to the Wichita-Sedgwick County Comprehensive Plan, western Wichita (northwest and southwest growth areas) is projected to experience a population increase of approximately 31,000 persons from 2005 to 2030. If current development densities continue, about 8.4 square miles of undeveloped land will be converted into urban use . In eastern Wichita (northeast and southeast Wichita growth areas), population is expected to increase by 20,000 persons from 2005 to 2030. This means that about 5.4 square miles of undeveloped land would be converted to urban uses based on current development densities. While the fringe urbanized areas of Sedgwick County have been experiencing steady growth since 1990, the older central area of Wichita has not grown much. Based on data from the last decade and current trends and revitalization efforts called for in the Comprehensive Plan, it is estimated that central Wichita will gain 3,000 people between 2005 and 2030. However, there have been some recent developments and proposed projects in the downtown and other central Wichita neighborhoods that may exceed anticipated future growth rates.
Figure 1 illustrates the stable population growth trend of Wichita and Sedgwick County and the WAMPO region for the past six years. WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
3
8 1 4
Demographics
Agenda Item Attachment
WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
Agenda Item Attachment
Demographics
8 1
Figure 2
POPULATION IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION Overall, the region appears to be on track with the WAMPO 2035 population projections for the MTP shown in Table 1. RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES Home sales serve as a barometer of economic health within the region, and the price of homes can signal shifts in income levels and the type of homes being bought within the region. Wichita Area Association of Realtors (WAAR) sales geography does not match the WAMPO region precisely. However, data on Sedgwick County makes up the bulk of the region. Data on home sales can be a better indicator of determining where population shifts may be occurring since it covers existing housing stock as well as new construction.
from 2007. And, has fallen below the five year average of 8,646 sales shown in Table 2B. Figure 2 illustrates the trend in Sedgwick County home sales from 2003 to 2008. Table 2B shows average homes sold, average home prices and average valuations for the nine real estate zones in Sedgwick County from 2003 to 2007. The real estate zones are illustrated in Figure 3.
Table 2A shows total units sold, average home prices and total valuations during 2008 in nine zones in Sedgwick County, as well as total units sold in Butler County as reported by the WAAR. The year 2008 saw the sale of 7,667 singlefamily homes and condominiums in Sedgwick County. This number is down by 19 percent
Table 2A
2008 Sedgwick County Area Residential Sales Zone Zone 100 Zone 200 Zone 300 Zone 400 Zone 500 Zone 600 Zone 700 Zone 800 Zone 900 Sedgwick County Total Butler County
Total
Average
Total Valuation
Percent of
Sold 1,584 671 824 1,637 1,365 534 246 216 590 7,667
Price $180,189 $77,016 $93,609 $199,621 $106,732 $130,536 $154,774 $144,705 $158,100 $145,952
$285,419,312 $51,678,063 $77,133,662 $326,778,798 $145,689,524 $69,706,367 $38,074,488 $31,256,266 $93,278,990 $1,119,015,470
Homes Sold* 21% 9% 11% 21% 18% 7% 3% 3% 8% 100%
1,023
$159,289
$162,952,891
--
Based on information from the Wichita Area Association of Realtors for the Period January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2008 *Percent of total sold for zones in Sedgwick County only.
WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
5
Agenda Item Attachment
Demographics Table 2B
2003-2007 Sedgwick County Area Average Residential Sales Zone Zone 100 Zone 200 Zone 300 Zone 400 Zone 500 Zone 600 Zone 700 Zone 800 Zone 900 Sedgwick County Total Butler County
Average
Average
5-Year Average
Sold 1,734 778 989 1,909 1,543 495 295 215 688 8,646
Price $156,430 $72,057 $89,312 $172,646 $90,974 $117,190 $136,976 $116,577 $132,512 $127,251
Valuation $271,250,393 $56,074,965 $88,347,145 $329,580,539 $140,409,852 $57,962,156 $40,380,628 $25,087,406 $91,115,558 $1,100,208,641
1,063
$131,302
$139,521,091
Percent of Homes Sold* 20% 9% 11% 22% 18% 6% 3% 2% 8% 100%
Based on information from the Wichita Area Association of Realtors for the Period January 1, 2003 through December 31, 2007 *Percent of total sold for zones in Sedgwick County only.
6
WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
8 1
Agenda Item Attachment
Demographics
8 1
oped. The remaining 67 percent was developing or anticipated to develop in the near future.
ANNEXATIONS As a result of subdivision and other development activity at the fringe of Wichita, the City of Wichita has tried to accommodate this growth and the subsequent provision of services through annexations. In the past year, Wichita has grown to 163.3 square miles with an average density of approximately 2,242 persons per square mile. In 2008, Wichita annexed 379.8 acres or 0.59 square miles. The majority of these annexations were due to property owner requests associated with new development. In 2008, about 6 residents were added through annexation. This is down from the 564 residents added to Wichita’s population by annexation in 2007.
Many of the smaller cities in the WAMPO region have also grown through annexation activity. Topping the list in acres annexed during 2008 among these cities are Maize, Derby and Clearwater. Table 3 shows annexation activity for each of the cities in Sedgwick County for 2008 along with total square miles for 2000 and 2008. Annexations to each of the cities throughout the WAMPO planning area have occurred in several school districts and are an indicator of future enrollment patterns for them. School districts serving the cities in Sedgwick County along with current city limits are depicted in Figure 4.
Of Wichita’s 2007 annexation cases, about 33 percent of the land annexed was already develTable 3 WAMPO Region Annexation Activity CITY Andale Bel Aire Bentley Cheney Clearwater Colwich Derby Eastborough Garden Plain Goddard Haysville Kechi Maize Mount Hope Mulvane* Park City Sedgwick* Valley Center Viola Wichita Andover
2000 Total Square Miles 0.5 2.2 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.9 7.3 0.4 0.4 2.2 3.4 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.6 5.4 0.2 3.2 0.2 140.0 9.7
2008 Acres Annexed 10.0 389.8 429.1 379.8 174.0
2008 Total Square Miles* 0.6 6.8 0.3 2.0 1.9 1.3 9.4 0.4 0.6 4.0 4.5 6.0 7.6 1.5 2.1 9.4 0.3 6.9 0.2 163.3 10.0
Source: Sedgwick County Geographic Information Systems and Small City Survey *Totals reflect city area within Sedgwick County
WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
7
Agenda Item Attachment
Demographics
8
School District
District Name
Primary City
USD 206 USD 259 USD 260 USD 261 USD 262 USD 263 USD 264 USD 265 USD 266 USD 267 USD 268 USD 312 USD 331 USD 356 USD 369 USD 375 USD 385 USD 394 USD 439 USD 440
Remington-Whitewater Wichita Derby Haysville Valley Center Mulvane Clearwater Goddard Maize Renwick Cheney Haven Kingman Conway Springs Burton Circle Andover Rose Hill Sedgwick Halstead
Whitewater Wichita Derby Haysville Valley Center Mulvane Clearwater Goddard Maize Colwich Cheney Bentley Kingman Conway Springs Burton Towanda Andover* Rose Hill Sedgwick Bentley
WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
8 1
WICHITA AREA METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATION November 17, 2009 TO: Technical Advisory Committee FROM: Kimberly Spielman Planning Analyst RE: Review & File: Development & Transportation Trends Report 2009. WAMPO produces the Development & Transportation Trends Report on an annual basis. The report documents development activity and projects future growth in the WAMPO region (Attachments 1‐4). Development activity has a direct impact on the transportation system, from the number of trips generated, to the number of vehicle miles traveled. The purpose of the report is to provide a view of the complex interactions between transportation and land use/development. The information from the report will feed into the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) 2035 and used as the building blocks for the Travel Demand Model (TDM). RECOMMENDED ACTION(S): 1) None. Attachment(s): 1) Introduction & Demographics. 2) Subdivision Activity. 3) Buildable Vacant Lot Activity. 4) Building Activity.
Agenda Item Attachment
Development & Transportation Trends Report 2009 (based upon 2008 data)
October 2009
This document was prepared with financial assistance from the Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administrationof the United States Department of Transportation.
8 1
Agenda Item Attachment
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
II
INTRODUCTION
1
DEMOGRAPHICS
2
8 1
POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS 3 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES
5
ANNEXATIONS
7
SUBDIVISION ACTIVITY
9
WHY SUBDIVISION ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT FOR TRANSPORTATION PLANNING 10 PLATTING AND LOT SPLITS
10
SUBDIVISION ACTIVITY IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION
18
BUILDABLE VACANT LOT ACTIVITY
21
BUILDING LOT INVENTORY
23
BUILDING ACTIVITY
31
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS
32
RESIDENTIAL PERMIT ACTIVITY IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION 40 COMMERCIAL BUILDING PERMITS
43
COMMERCIAL PERMIT ACTIVITY IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION 50
Wichita-Sedgwick County Development Trends Report—2009
I
Agenda Item Attachment Table 1.
WAMPO Region Population Projection
4
Table 2A.
2008 Sedgwick County Area Residential Sales
5
Table 2B.
2003 - 2007 Sedgwick County Area Average Residential Sales
6
Table 3.
WAMPO Region Annexation Activity
7
Table 4
WAMPO Region Residential Platting and Lot Split Activity
15
Table 5.
WAMPO Region Commercial/Office and Industrial Platting and Lot Split Activity
16
Table 6.
Residential Platting and Lot Split Activity by School District
17
Table 7.
Residential Buildable Lots Added by 2030 Urban Growth Sub-Area
23
Residential Building Permits Issued by 2030 Urban Growth Sub-Area
23
Residential Buildable Lots Available by 2030 Urban Growth Sub-Area
23
2008 Single-Family Residential Buildable Lot Supply by 2030 Wichita Urbanized Growth Sub-Area
24
Table 8.
Table 9.
Table 10.
Table 11.
2008 Vacant Single-Family Residential Lot Activity by Wichita 2030 Urban Growth Sub-Area
26 & 27
Table 12.
WAMPO Region 2008 Residential Building Activity
35
Table 13.
2008 Net Residential Units Added in Unincorporated Areas by Comprehensive Plan Growth Area
36
Table 14.
Wichita New Residential Building Permits by Type
37
Table 15.
2008 Residential Addition and Remodel Totals by Comprehensive Plan Growth Area
38
2008 Net Residential Units Added and Full-Time Enrollment Changes (For School Districts Serving the WAMPO Region)
39
WAMPO Region 2008 Commercial Projects by Comprehensive Plan Growth Area
44
Table 18.
The 20 Largest Building Projects of 2008 in the WAMPO Region
47
Table 19.
2008 Wichita Retail: New Building, Addition, Remodel
Table 16.
Table 17.
Wichita-Sedgwick County Development Trends Report—2009
8 1
II
Agenda Item Attachment
Table 20.
Table 21.
Table 22.
Table 23.
48
2008 Wichita Office: New Building, Addition, Remodel and Demolition Totals
48
2008 Wichita Industrial/Warehouse: New Building, Addition, Remodel and Demolition Totals
48
2008 Wichita Institutional: New Building, Addition, Remodel and Demolition Totals
48
2008 Commercial Projects by School District (For School Districts Serving the WAMPO Region)
49
Figure 1.
Population Change in the WAMPO Region
3
Figure 2.
Number of Homes Sold In Sedgwick County
5
Figure 3.
Statistical Reporting Areas (Wichita Area Association of Realtors)
6
Figure 4.
School Districts Serving the WAMPO Region
8
Figure 5.
2003 - 2008 Residential Subdivision Activity in the WAMPO Region 11
Figure 6.
2003 - 2008 Commercial Subdivision Activity in the WAMPO Region 12
Figure 7.
Wichita and Small Cities 2030 Urban Growth Areas (2005 Update)
13
Figure 8.
WAMPO Region Residential Platting and Lot Splits
15
Figure 9.
WAMPO Region Commercial/Office, Industrial Platting & Lot Splits 16
Figure 10.
2003 - 2008 Commercial and Residential Subdivision Activity And Major Road Impacts
19
Total Single-Family Vacant Buildable Lots in the Wichita Urbanized Area
24
Vacant Buildable Lot Activity by 2030 Wichita Urbanized Growth Sub-area
25
Figure 13.
2008 Vacant Buildable Single-Family Lots in Wichita
29
Figure 14.
2008 Residential Construction & Demolition
33
Figure 15.
WAMPO Region 2003 - 2008 Net Residential Units
35
Figure 16.
City of Wichita - New Residential Units 2003 - 2008
37
Figure 17.
2003 - 2008 Residential Construction & Major Road Segment Impacts
41
Figure 11.
Figure 12.
III
and Demolition Totals
Wichita-Sedgwick County Development Trends Report—2009
8 1
Agenda Item Attachment Figure 18.
2008 Commercial/Industrial Construction Valuation
45
Figure 19.
WAMPO Region 2003 - 2008 Total Commercial Valuations
44
Figure 20.
2003 - 2008 Commercial/Industrial Construction Activity & Major Road Segment Impacts
51
2003 - 2008 Cumulative Residential & Commercial Building Permit & Subdivision Activity
52
Figure 22.
Sedgwick County & Butler County Maintained Road Network
53
Figure 23.
Wichita Transit Routes & Dedicated Bicycle Facilities
54
Figure 24.
WAMPO Region Railroad Network
55
Figure 21.
Wichita-Sedgwick County Development Trends Report—2009
IV
8 1
Introduction Purpose of this Document The Development and Transportation Trends report is designed to be a one stop look at development activity within the Wichita Area Metropolitan Planning Organization’s (WAMPO) planning area and the impact of that activity upon the transportation system within the planning area. The data within this report serves as the building blocks for travel demand modeling and feeds into projections of future growth for the region and the impacts of that growth on the transportation system. Area Covered The WAMPO planning area covers all of Sedgwick County plus the city of Andover and its environs within Butler County and the Sumner County portion of the city of Mulvane and its surrounding area. The included portion of Butler County encompasses approximately 25 square miles, and the included portion of Sumner County encompasses approximately 2.5 square miles. How this Information Works With Transportation Development activity is a reflection of population growth and economic development resulting in employment. These factors have direct impacts on the use of the transportation system within the region. Households generate trips to work as well as trips to patronize businesses. Work places also generate business to business trips in order to distribute goods and services to each other. These trips contribute to congestion levels within the transportation system and the need to make improvements to it. While the primary mode of transportation is automobiles on roads, other modes such as public transit, bicycles, pedestrian, etc. can be evaluated with this trends information as well.
WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
Agenda Item Attachment
8 1
This data has been compiled and used for many years to develop projections and do analysis for transportation purposes including development of long range transportation plans such as the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) and the South Area Transportation Study (SATS). By adding this information to this annual report WAMPO hopes that a better sense of the impacts of development on transportation can be shared with a broader public. WAMPO will also be able to better maintain a record of its monitoring activities and create more transparency regarding transportation issues within the region. Some important data is in the process of being developed and documented, particularly for the analysis of commercial building activity. It may take some time before a better in-depth trend analysis of commercial building activity can be completed. Also, better geographic information system (GIS) data needs to be obtained for the portions of Butler County and Sumner County within the WAMPO region. In the future, other transportation trend data will be added to this report (such as vehicle miles traveled and commute times). As an example, population in Sedgwick County grew from 452,869 people in 2000 to about 482,360 in 2008 (an additional 29,490 persons). As result of this and associated economic activity, daily vehicle miles travelled grew from 10,369,300 to 12,441,800 (or an additional 2,072,500 daily vehicle miles) during the same period. This not only requires the building of new roads to get to and from new homes and businesses, but also improving existing roads to accommodate new traffic. WAMPO will be conducting studies to obtain more geographically precise data for the entire WAMPO region and compare it to development activity compiled in this report to improve its modeling and analysis abilities and help with the Congestion Mitigation Plan.
1
Introduction (cont.) As WAMPO’s work process continues to change, so will this document. WAMPO has some work items on the horizon that will aid in identifying travel information, such as regional travel trends, travel times, pavement conditions, etc. that will likely become part of this report. WAMPO also produces a congestion report as part of the Congestion Management Process (CMP) that can be integrated into this report. As data is compiled and trends can be synthesized, this report will
Agenda Item Attachment
provide an outlet to disseminate this travel information. This information, along with the topics already addressed in this report, will hopefully provide the public with a more comprehensive view of the complex interactions between transportation and land use/development. WAMPO will continue to look for ways of improving this report and making it more useful with this focus in mind.
Demographics 2008 Demographic Highlights 1.
2.
3.
4.
2
Wichita's population at the end of 2008 is estimated at 362,245, an increase of 17,961 since 2000. Sedgwick County has experienced an increase of 29,491 since 2000, for a 2008 population of 482,360. The total WAMPO region has increased by 33,220 since 2000 to reach a 2008 population of 493,790. The Wichita Area Association of Realtors figures show 7,668 homes totaling $1.12 billion sold in Sedgwick County in 2008. This is down 19 percent from homes sold in 2007, and is 11% lower than the five-year average. The average price for homes sold in Sedgwick County in 2008 was approximately $145,950. This is 9% higher than 2007 figures. Wichita’s incorporated area grew to 163.3 square miles in 2008. All other cities in Sedgwick County grew to a total of 65.7 square miles. Andover, in Butler County, has 10.0 square miles within its city limits.
WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
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Agenda Item Attachment
Demographics POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS Table 1 presents 2000 and 2007 Census numbers along with 2035 projections for all cities in Sedgwick County plus the city of Andover in Butler County. The 2035 projections are the same projections used for the 2035 Metropolitan Transportation Plan 2035 (MTP) now under development. The projections anticipate moderate growth for the region through the year 2035, with over half of the new growth occurring by 2020. Growth rates are also shown in Table 1 for the estimates and projections with 2000 Census numbers as the starting point. Household size and owner occupancy data are obtained from 2000 Census figures for each jurisdiction within the WAMPO region along with building permit data to calculate population growth. The majority of population growth in the region occurred in the urbanizing fringe portions of Sedgwick County adjacent to cities. As a result of city’s continuing annexations, the unincorporated areas of the Sedgwick County continue to experience a net decline in population. Total WAMPO region 2008 population is estimated at 493,790. Wichita’s population at the end of 2008 is estimated at 362,245, and Sedgwick County’s population is estimated at 482,360 at the end of 2008. These estimates are consistent with the trend expected from 2005 and 2010 projections, and reflect the use of the Census Bureau’s July, 2007 estimate which incorporates other factors such as the downturn in employment earlier in the decade, causing some loss of population to Wichita and Sedgwick County at that time. While these estimates reflect growth rates that are in line with previous projections, the current economic downturn is likely to bring another population decline for the near term. Currently, there is not enough data to measure this latest development.
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Figure 1
For the near future, Wichita’s predominantly east -west growth pattern is expected to continue. According to the Wichita-Sedgwick County Comprehensive Plan, western Wichita (northwest and southwest growth areas) is projected to experience a population increase of approximately 31,000 persons from 2005 to 2030. If current development densities continue, about 8.4 square miles of undeveloped land will be converted into urban use . In eastern Wichita (northeast and southeast Wichita growth areas), population is expected to increase by 20,000 persons from 2005 to 2030. This means that about 5.4 square miles of undeveloped land would be converted to urban uses based on current development densities. While the fringe urbanized areas of Sedgwick County have been experiencing steady growth since 1990, the older central area of Wichita has not grown much. Based on data from the last decade and current trends and revitalization efforts called for in the Comprehensive Plan, it is estimated that central Wichita will gain 3,000 people between 2005 and 2030. However, there have been some recent developments and proposed projects in the downtown and other central Wichita neighborhoods that may exceed anticipated future growth rates.
Figure 1 illustrates the stable population growth trend of Wichita and Sedgwick County and the WAMPO region for the past six years. WAMPO Development and Transportation Trends Report—2009
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Figure 2
POPULATION IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION Overall, the region appears to be on track with the WAMPO 2035 population projections for the MTP shown in Table 1. RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES Home sales serve as a barometer of economic health within the region, and the price of homes can signal shifts in income levels and the type of homes being bought within the region. Wichita Area Association of Realtors (WAAR) sales geography does not match the WAMPO region precisely. However, data on Sedgwick County makes up the bulk of the region. Data on home sales can be a better indicator of determining where population shifts may be occurring since it covers existing housing stock as well as new construction.
from 2007. And, has fallen below the five year average of 8,646 sales shown in Table 2B. Figure 2 illustrates the trend in Sedgwick County home sales from 2003 to 2008. Table 2B shows average homes sold, average home prices and average valuations for the nine real estate zones in Sedgwick County from 2003 to 2007. The real estate zones are illustrated in Figure 3.
Table 2A shows total units sold, average home prices and total valuations during 2008 in nine zones in Sedgwick County, as well as total units sold in Butler County as reported by the WAAR. The year 2008 saw the sale of 7,667 singlefamily homes and condominiums in Sedgwick County. This number is down by 19 percent
Table 2A
2008 Sedgwick County Area Residential Sales Zone Zone 100 Zone 200 Zone 300 Zone 400 Zone 500 Zone 600 Zone 700 Zone 800 Zone 900 Sedgwick County Total Butler County
Total
Average
Total Valuation
Percent of
Sold 1,584 671 824 1,637 1,365 534 246 216 590 7,667
Price $180,189 $77,016 $93,609 $199,621 $106,732 $130,536 $154,774 $144,705 $158,100 $145,952
$285,419,312 $51,678,063 $77,133,662 $326,778,798 $145,689,524 $69,706,367 $38,074,488 $31,256,266 $93,278,990 $1,119,015,470
Homes Sold* 21% 9% 11% 21% 18% 7% 3% 3% 8% 100%
1,023
$159,289
$162,952,891
--
Based on information from the Wichita Area Association of Realtors for the Period January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2008 *Percent of total sold for zones in Sedgwick County only.
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Demographics Table 2B
2003-2007 Sedgwick County Area Average Residential Sales Zone Zone 100 Zone 200 Zone 300 Zone 400 Zone 500 Zone 600 Zone 700 Zone 800 Zone 900 Sedgwick County Total Butler County
Average
Average
5-Year Average
Sold 1,734 778 989 1,909 1,543 495 295 215 688 8,646
Price $156,430 $72,057 $89,312 $172,646 $90,974 $117,190 $136,976 $116,577 $132,512 $127,251
Valuation $271,250,393 $56,074,965 $88,347,145 $329,580,539 $140,409,852 $57,962,156 $40,380,628 $25,087,406 $91,115,558 $1,100,208,641
1,063
$131,302
$139,521,091
Percent of Homes Sold* 20% 9% 11% 22% 18% 6% 3% 2% 8% 100%
Based on information from the Wichita Area Association of Realtors for the Period January 1, 2003 through December 31, 2007 *Percent of total sold for zones in Sedgwick County only.
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oped. The remaining 67 percent was developing or anticipated to develop in the near future.
ANNEXATIONS As a result of subdivision and other development activity at the fringe of Wichita, the City of Wichita has tried to accommodate this growth and the subsequent provision of services through annexations. In the past year, Wichita has grown to 163.3 square miles with an average density of approximately 2,242 persons per square mile. In 2008, Wichita annexed 379.8 acres or 0.59 square miles. The majority of these annexations were due to property owner requests associated with new development. In 2008, about 6 residents were added through annexation. This is down from the 564 residents added to Wichita’s population by annexation in 2007.
Many of the smaller cities in the WAMPO region have also grown through annexation activity. Topping the list in acres annexed during 2008 among these cities are Maize, Derby and Clearwater. Table 3 shows annexation activity for each of the cities in Sedgwick County for 2008 along with total square miles for 2000 and 2008. Annexations to each of the cities throughout the WAMPO planning area have occurred in several school districts and are an indicator of future enrollment patterns for them. School districts serving the cities in Sedgwick County along with current city limits are depicted in Figure 4.
Of Wichita’s 2007 annexation cases, about 33 percent of the land annexed was already develTable 3 WAMPO Region Annexation Activity CITY Andale Bel Aire Bentley Cheney Clearwater Colwich Derby Eastborough Garden Plain Goddard Haysville Kechi Maize Mount Hope Mulvane* Park City Sedgwick* Valley Center Viola Wichita Andover
2000 Total Square Miles 0.5 2.2 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.9 7.3 0.4 0.4 2.2 3.4 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.6 5.4 0.2 3.2 0.2 140.0 9.7
2008 Acres Annexed 10.0 389.8 429.1 379.8 174.0
2008 Total Square Miles* 0.6 6.8 0.3 2.0 1.9 1.3 9.4 0.4 0.6 4.0 4.5 6.0 7.6 1.5 2.1 9.4 0.3 6.9 0.2 163.3 10.0
Source: Sedgwick County Geographic Information Systems and Small City Survey *Totals reflect city area within Sedgwick County
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School District
District Name
Primary City
USD 206 USD 259 USD 260 USD 261 USD 262 USD 263 USD 264 USD 265 USD 266 USD 267 USD 268 USD 312 USD 331 USD 356 USD 369 USD 375 USD 385 USD 394 USD 439 USD 440
Remington-Whitewater Wichita Derby Haysville Valley Center Mulvane Clearwater Goddard Maize Renwick Cheney Haven Kingman Conway Springs Burton Circle Andover Rose Hill Sedgwick Halstead
Whitewater Wichita Derby Haysville Valley Center Mulvane Clearwater Goddard Maize Colwich Cheney Bentley Kingman Conway Springs Burton Towanda Andover* Rose Hill Sedgwick Bentley
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