022016 Comcast Spotlight Trend Insights Automotive Sales Analysis
TREND INSIGHTS
Automotive Sales Analysis Feb. 2016
U.S. AUTOMOTIVE SALES SETS A RECORD Automotive News Data Center reported that U.S. auto sales reached all-time high in 2015 selling 17.47 million light trucks and vehicles, eclipsing the old mark set in 2000 when 17.35 million were sold. By comparison, in 2009 at the height of the economic recession, only 10.4 million vehicles were sold. (At that time both GM and Chrysler declared bankruptcy and received government bailouts). The 2015 sales represent an increase of 5.7% from the previous year, it marked the sixth consecutive year of annual increase in light vehicle sales. The last time the industry experienced six consecutive years of sales growth was in the 1920’s. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 1999-2015 (in millions) 20 18
17.0
17.4
17.2
16.8
16.7
16.9
17.0
16.6
17.5 16.1
15.6
16
16.5
14.5 13.2
14
12.8 11.6
12
10.4
10 8 6 4 2 0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: SME.org & Automotive News
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TRENDS | INSIGHTS
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014
Reasons for the Strong Automotive Market: There were several reasons for such a strong year in sales. The price of gas continues to drop, according to the AAA, averaging only $2.00 a gallon by yearend nationwide. Another factor was the interest rates hovering around zero. By comparison, in 2000, the interest rates averaged 6.2%. A stronger economy, also helped boost sales, with more people working (The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 2.65 million jobs were added in 2015, many of them under the age of 35), consumers could now afford to buy new cars and many needed an automobile to commute. Additionally, there are a lot of older cars on the road, according to a survey from IHS Automotive, the average age of a vehicle on the road in 2015 was a record high 11.5 years and needed to be replaced. (Polk reports the replacement rate for vehicles increases notably when they reach 13 years). Another reason for the strong year was the popularity of leasing, according to Edmonds, leases on new cars accounted for 29% of all U.S. retail sales, up 2% from 2014. In contrast, the leasing figure in 2005 was 16.6%. To further emphasize the strong automotive market, the Wall Street Journal reported, Americans, in total, spent approximately $570 billion in new cars in 2015. Additionally, CNN/Money said in 2015 the balance on car loans exceeded $1 trillion for the first time. Crossover SUV’s Popular: With the cost of gas dropping, one of the more popular car type sold in 2015 were SUV’s. By fourth quarter 2015, Kelly Blue reported that small sized (“crossover”) SUV’s garnered a 14% market share, greater than both small and midsize sedans. The top selling model was the Honda CR-V with about 900 units sold each day of the year. The Honda CR-V outsold Honda Civic for the second straight year. Another popular crossover SUV model was the Nissan Rogue which reported an increase in sales of 44%. Fuel Efficient Cars Not As Popular: With the cost of gas dropping the sales of the fuel efficient small cars, hybrids and electric all decreased as consumers saw less of a need for them. According to the Associated Press, The Toyota Prius hybrid had a fall-off in cars sold of 11% in 2015 to 185,000 models sold. The Nissan Leaf an electric car had sales decline by 43% in 2015 to 17,000 models sold. The Chevrolet Sonic, a top subcompact car reported a decrease in sales of 31% compared to the previous year.
TRENDS | INSIGHTS
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Best Selling Vehicles: The ten best-selling car models all sold over 300,000 units in 2015. For the sixth consecutive year Ford’s F-Series light trucks was the top selling car model. In 2015 Ford sold 780,354 F Series trucks which, according to USNews.com, comes to more than one every minute. Ford revamped its F-150 model during the year partially adding aluminum to cut weight. According to Autodata, the sales of light trucks grew by 13% in 2015 to 9.7 million units. The top three selling vehicles in 2015 were light trucks. Conversely, the sales of cars dropped by 2% selling 7.7 million vehicles. This marked the sixth straight year that light trucks have outsold cars. Top Selling Car Models 2015 (Units) Ford F Series
780,354
Chevrolet Silverado
600,544
Dodge Ram
451,116
Toyota Camry
429,355
Toyota Corolla
363,332
Honda Accord
355,557
Honda CR-V
345,647
Honda Civic
335,384
Nissan Altima
333,398
Toyota RAV4
315,412
Source: Automotive News
A Banner Year for Carmakers: According to Automotive News, General Motors, led all automotive companies in 2015, selling over three million cars and trucks, a 5% increase of over 2014. Ford Motor, Toyota Motor and Fiat Chrysler all sold over two million cars in 2015. Honda, Nissan and Hyundai-Kia all sold over one million automobiles in 2015. The fastest growing car seller was Subaru who reported a sales increase of 13.5% when 2015 is compared to the previous year. The three top selling carmakers, General Motors, Ford Motor and Toyota Motor accounted for nearly 47% of all cars sold in 2015.
4
TRENDS | INSIGHTS
Top Selling Carmakers in the U.S. 2015 Car Makers
2015
2014
% Change
General Motors
3,082,366
2,935,008
+ 5.0%
Ford Motor
2,603,082
2,471,315
+ 5.3%
Toyota Motor
2,499,313
2,373,771
+ 5.3%
Fiat Chrysler
2,243,907
2,090,639
+ 7.3%
Honda (American)
1,586,551
1,540,872
+ 3.0%
Nissan North America
1,484,918
1,386,895
+ 7.1%
Hyundai-Kia
1,387,528
1,305,952
+ 6.2%
Subaru
582,675
513,693
+ 13.4%
VW Group
555,084
552,720
+ 0.5%
BMW Group
405,677
396,691
+ 2.2%
Daimler AG
380,461
366,589
+ 3.8%
Mazda
319,183
305,801
+ 4.4%
17,470,659
16,522,663
+5.7%
Total
Source: Automotive News
How 2016 Sales Shape Up: Looking ahead industry analysts forecast continued sales growth in the market but a slower pace. One reason is the millions of vehicles that are “coming-off” two or three year leases and entering the used car market. Nonetheless, even a 3% increase in sales in 2016, roughly half of the growth of 2015, will push sales past the 18 million mark for the first time. Industry analysts project sales to level off in the years beyond that.
TRENDS | INSIGHTS
5
www.ComcastSpotlight.com
Automotive Sales Analysis Feb. 2016
U.S. AUTOMOTIVE SALES SETS A RECORD Automotive News Data Center reported that U.S. auto sales reached all-time high in 2015 selling 17.47 million light trucks and vehicles, eclipsing the old mark set in 2000 when 17.35 million were sold. By comparison, in 2009 at the height of the economic recession, only 10.4 million vehicles were sold. (At that time both GM and Chrysler declared bankruptcy and received government bailouts). The 2015 sales represent an increase of 5.7% from the previous year, it marked the sixth consecutive year of annual increase in light vehicle sales. The last time the industry experienced six consecutive years of sales growth was in the 1920’s. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 1999-2015 (in millions) 20 18
17.0
17.4
17.2
16.8
16.7
16.9
17.0
16.6
17.5 16.1
15.6
16
16.5
14.5 13.2
14
12.8 11.6
12
10.4
10 8 6 4 2 0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: SME.org & Automotive News
2
TRENDS | INSIGHTS
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014
Reasons for the Strong Automotive Market: There were several reasons for such a strong year in sales. The price of gas continues to drop, according to the AAA, averaging only $2.00 a gallon by yearend nationwide. Another factor was the interest rates hovering around zero. By comparison, in 2000, the interest rates averaged 6.2%. A stronger economy, also helped boost sales, with more people working (The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 2.65 million jobs were added in 2015, many of them under the age of 35), consumers could now afford to buy new cars and many needed an automobile to commute. Additionally, there are a lot of older cars on the road, according to a survey from IHS Automotive, the average age of a vehicle on the road in 2015 was a record high 11.5 years and needed to be replaced. (Polk reports the replacement rate for vehicles increases notably when they reach 13 years). Another reason for the strong year was the popularity of leasing, according to Edmonds, leases on new cars accounted for 29% of all U.S. retail sales, up 2% from 2014. In contrast, the leasing figure in 2005 was 16.6%. To further emphasize the strong automotive market, the Wall Street Journal reported, Americans, in total, spent approximately $570 billion in new cars in 2015. Additionally, CNN/Money said in 2015 the balance on car loans exceeded $1 trillion for the first time. Crossover SUV’s Popular: With the cost of gas dropping, one of the more popular car type sold in 2015 were SUV’s. By fourth quarter 2015, Kelly Blue reported that small sized (“crossover”) SUV’s garnered a 14% market share, greater than both small and midsize sedans. The top selling model was the Honda CR-V with about 900 units sold each day of the year. The Honda CR-V outsold Honda Civic for the second straight year. Another popular crossover SUV model was the Nissan Rogue which reported an increase in sales of 44%. Fuel Efficient Cars Not As Popular: With the cost of gas dropping the sales of the fuel efficient small cars, hybrids and electric all decreased as consumers saw less of a need for them. According to the Associated Press, The Toyota Prius hybrid had a fall-off in cars sold of 11% in 2015 to 185,000 models sold. The Nissan Leaf an electric car had sales decline by 43% in 2015 to 17,000 models sold. The Chevrolet Sonic, a top subcompact car reported a decrease in sales of 31% compared to the previous year.
TRENDS | INSIGHTS
3
Best Selling Vehicles: The ten best-selling car models all sold over 300,000 units in 2015. For the sixth consecutive year Ford’s F-Series light trucks was the top selling car model. In 2015 Ford sold 780,354 F Series trucks which, according to USNews.com, comes to more than one every minute. Ford revamped its F-150 model during the year partially adding aluminum to cut weight. According to Autodata, the sales of light trucks grew by 13% in 2015 to 9.7 million units. The top three selling vehicles in 2015 were light trucks. Conversely, the sales of cars dropped by 2% selling 7.7 million vehicles. This marked the sixth straight year that light trucks have outsold cars. Top Selling Car Models 2015 (Units) Ford F Series
780,354
Chevrolet Silverado
600,544
Dodge Ram
451,116
Toyota Camry
429,355
Toyota Corolla
363,332
Honda Accord
355,557
Honda CR-V
345,647
Honda Civic
335,384
Nissan Altima
333,398
Toyota RAV4
315,412
Source: Automotive News
A Banner Year for Carmakers: According to Automotive News, General Motors, led all automotive companies in 2015, selling over three million cars and trucks, a 5% increase of over 2014. Ford Motor, Toyota Motor and Fiat Chrysler all sold over two million cars in 2015. Honda, Nissan and Hyundai-Kia all sold over one million automobiles in 2015. The fastest growing car seller was Subaru who reported a sales increase of 13.5% when 2015 is compared to the previous year. The three top selling carmakers, General Motors, Ford Motor and Toyota Motor accounted for nearly 47% of all cars sold in 2015.
4
TRENDS | INSIGHTS
Top Selling Carmakers in the U.S. 2015 Car Makers
2015
2014
% Change
General Motors
3,082,366
2,935,008
+ 5.0%
Ford Motor
2,603,082
2,471,315
+ 5.3%
Toyota Motor
2,499,313
2,373,771
+ 5.3%
Fiat Chrysler
2,243,907
2,090,639
+ 7.3%
Honda (American)
1,586,551
1,540,872
+ 3.0%
Nissan North America
1,484,918
1,386,895
+ 7.1%
Hyundai-Kia
1,387,528
1,305,952
+ 6.2%
Subaru
582,675
513,693
+ 13.4%
VW Group
555,084
552,720
+ 0.5%
BMW Group
405,677
396,691
+ 2.2%
Daimler AG
380,461
366,589
+ 3.8%
Mazda
319,183
305,801
+ 4.4%
17,470,659
16,522,663
+5.7%
Total
Source: Automotive News
How 2016 Sales Shape Up: Looking ahead industry analysts forecast continued sales growth in the market but a slower pace. One reason is the millions of vehicles that are “coming-off” two or three year leases and entering the used car market. Nonetheless, even a 3% increase in sales in 2016, roughly half of the growth of 2015, will push sales past the 18 million mark for the first time. Industry analysts project sales to level off in the years beyond that.
TRENDS | INSIGHTS
5
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