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Daily Commodity Outlook as on Wednesday, October 14, 2009 GOLD
SILVER
CRUDE
COPPER
ZINC
NICKEL
GUAR
GOLD MCX - GOLD OPEN 15890 HIGH 16048 LOW 15890 CLOSE 16036 % CNG 0.7 RS. CNG 113 VOLUME 25848 OPEN INT 13751 SUP 15,935 15,833 15,777
RES 16,093 16,149 16,251
Gold ended higher in choppy trade, as a weaker U.S. currency prompted investors to hedge against the depreciation of dollar-denominated assets. Gold opened on its lows at 15890 on MCX. Gold rallied as the dollar slumped, drifting back above 16000 and peaked at 16048. It moved sideways within a range as the day came to a close, finally settling at 16036. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 15935 and below could see a test of 15833. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 16093, a move above could see prices testing 16149.
TRADING IDEAS # GOLD TRADING RANGE IS 15450-16200. # GOLD GAINS YESTERDAY ON SUPPORT FROM WEAKEN DOLLAR. 16075-16099-16128.MCX # BUY GOLD DEC ABV 16050 SL 16000 TGT 16075 16099 16128.MCX # IMMEDIATE SUPPORT FOR THE GOLD IS AT 1052$ BELOW THIS WE CAN SEE 1036$ LVL. # OVERALL WE LOOK GOLD TO TOUCH TILL 1090$ ABOVE 1052$ MARK # GOLD / SILVER RATIO IS AT 59.34. YESTERDAY GOLD FIX $ HAS CLOSED HIGHER AT : 1058.75
SILVER MCX - SILVER OPEN 27431 HIGH 27680 LOW 27101 CLOSE 27498 % CNG 0.2 RS. CNG 55 VOLUME 38864 OPEN INT 25798.88 SUP 27,173 26,847 26,594
RES 27,752 28,005 28,331
Silver followed gold higher. But the gray metal's gains were muted by pressure from lower copper prices. Silver opened at 27431 and ticked higher, peaking at 27680 before it quickly lost steam. Profit taking pulled it lower and the selling was persistent, slipping to 27101. A weaker USD and stronger oil helped carry the metal off its lows, finding resistance near 27420. However it remained bid and climbed above this level as the session unwound, closing at 27498. Now support for the silver is seen at 27173 and below could see a test of 26847. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 27752, a move above could see prices testing 28005.
TRADING IDEAS # SILVER TRADING RANGE IS 26800-28000. # SILVER'S GAINS WERE MUTED BY PRESSURE FROM LOWER COPPER PRICES # BUY SILVER DEC ABV 27520 SL 27380 TGT 27590-27672-27725-27800.MCX 27590-27672-27725-27800 MCX # SILVER IS TAKING RES OF 24580 ABV THIS LOOKS TILL 27700-27800 LVL # RUPEE FACTORS IS MORE ON MCX AS RUPEE FIRMNESS CAN CREATE PRESSURE ON BULLION # SILVER $ FIX IS AT : 0 & CURRENTLY SILVER $ IS TRADING AT : 17.99 & UP BY 1.24%
PEPPER
MENTHOL OIL
CRUDE MCX - CRUDE OPEN 3420 HIGH 3448 LOW 3396 CLOSE 3425 % CNG 0.53 RS. CNG 18 VOLUME 98059 OPEN INT 15005 SUP 3,398 3,371 3,346
RES 3,450 3,475 3,502
Crude oil ended higher, as a brighter demand forecast from OPEC and a weakened dollar supported the pp market. World demand for OPEC's oil will be stronger than expected next year, the producer group said. OPEC's view follows higher demand forecasts from the IEA and U.S. Energy Information Administration. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world’s largest oil producer, will maintain cuts in its supplies of crude to refiners in Asia for November. Now support for the crude is seen at 3398 and below could see a test of 3371. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 3450, a move above could see prices testing 3475.
TRADING IDEAS # CRUDE TRADING RANGE IS 3300-3550. # SAUDI ARABIA TO MAINTAIN OIL SHIPMENTS CUTS TO ASIA # BUY CRUDE OCT @ 3430-3440 SL 3408 TGT 3458-3474-3498.MCX # WORLD DEMAND FOR OPEC'S OIL WILL BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED NEXT YEAR # CRUDE INVENTORY WILL RELEASE TOMMOROW AS MONDAY US MKT WAS CLOSED. # CRUDE $ IS TRADING AT : 74.88$ $
COPPER MCX - COPPER OPEN 293.70 HIGH G 294.70 29 0 LOW 283.35 CLOSE 286.40 % CNG -2.36 RS. CNG -6.75 VOLUME 85080 OPEN INT 27023 SUP 281.6 281 6 276.8 270.3
RES 293.0 293 0 299.5 304.3
Copper ended lower, as concerns about over-extended price levels in the face of a weaker near-term demand outlook sapped momentum and pulled prices down to near one-week lows. Copper also fell following news that a labor settlement averted a possible strike later in the year at the world's largest copper mine. Inventories of copper stored in LME warehouses rose 575 metric tons Tuesday, leaving them at 347,950. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Monday afternoon, were up 358 short tons at 56,019 short tons. For today market is looking for the support at 281.6, a break below could see a test of 276.8 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 292.95, a move above could see prices testing 299.5.
TRADING IDEAS # COPPER TRADING RANGE IS 270-300. # COPPER ENDED LOWER AFTER NEWS THAT A LABOR SETTLEMENT WAS REACHED AT CHILE'S ESCONDIDA # BUY COPPER NOV ABV 287 SL 285.80 TGT 287.90-289.20-290.90.MCX # COPPER IS TAKING SUP AT 282 BELOW THIS CAN DROP TO ITS FRESH LOW TILL 276 LEVEL. # CODELCO, PREDICTS DEMAND WILL WEAKEN & PRODUCERS WILL RESTART MINES CLOSED. # YESTERDAY LME STOCK FOR COPPER CAME Up BY 775
ZINC MCX - ZINC OPEN 96.25 HIGH 96.75 LOW 92.1 92 1 CLOSE 93.05 % CNG -3.06 RS. CNG -2.85 VOLUME 15263 OPEN INT 3703 SUP 91.18 89.32 86.53
RES 95.83 98.62 100.48
The global zinc surplus will widen to 380,000 mt this year before narrowing to 227,000 mt in 2010, according to forecasts by the ILZSG. ILZSG Demand is expected to fall by 5.6% to 10.76 million mt, the largest fall since 1975. The only countries where there will be a rise are China (16.8%) and India (6.2%). Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -2.97%. Market has opened at 96.25 & made a low of 92.1 versus the day high of 96.75. The total volume for the day was at 15263 lots and the open interest was at 3703.Now support for the zinc is seen at 91.10 and below could see a test of 89.30. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 95.80, a move above could see prices testing 98.60.
TRADING IDEAS # ZINC TRADING RANGE IS 85-102. # ZINC SURPLUS WILL RISE TO 380,000T THIS YEAR – ILZSG # BUY ZINC OCT @ 93-93.40 SL 92.20 TGT 94.25-95.10-96.30.MCX # ZINC IS GETTING SUP AT 92.20 AND RESISTANCE AT 94.30 LEVELS. # MORGAN STANLEY RAISED ITS ESTIMATES FOR COPPER, ZINC AND NICKEL FROM 2009 THROUGH 2012. # YESTERDAY LME STOCK FOR ZINC CAME Down BY -1500
NICKEL MCX - NICKEL OPEN 877.90 HIGH G 882.90 882 90 LOW 841.40 CLOSE 849.30 % CNG -2.92 RS. CNG -24.80 VOLUME 43384 OPEN INT 14584 SUP 832.8 832 8 816.4 791.3
RES 874.3 874 3 899.4 915.8
Nickel prices won't rise too much from current levels because production of cheaper nickel pig iron will increase and weigh on prices. Nickel has touched a low of Rs 841.4 a kg after opening at Rs.877.9, and last traded at Rs 849.3.For today market is looking for the support at 832.80, a break below could see a test of 816.30 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 874.30, a move above could see prices testing 899.30.
TRADING IDEAS # NICKEL TRADING RANGE IS 800-890. # NICKEL PRICES WON'T RISE TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT LEVELS # BUY NICKEL OCT @ 850-854 SL 845.20 TGT 859.80-864.50-869-875.MCX # NICKEL IS GETTING SUP AT 844.60 BELOW THIS LOOKS TO TAKE SUP AT 837-830 LVL. # WESTERN AREAS NL GETS ITS RICH-GRADE OPEN CUT NICKEL MINE UNDERWAY # YESTERDAY LME STOCK FOR NICKEL CAME DOWN BY -36
GUAR NCDEX - GUAR OPEN 2312 HIGH 2338 LOW 2305 CLOSE 2319 % CNG 0.43 RS. CNG 10 VOLUME 38010 OPEN INT 32780 SUP 2,303 2,288 2,270
RES 2,336 2,354 2,369
Guar edged up slightly towards the end on concerns of lower output profit selling p due to crop p damage. g Intraday yp g by the traders slashed early gains from Guar. Likelihood of significant decline in the output on the back of erratic monsoon supported rise in Guar. Guar yesterday we have seen that market has moved 0.43%. Market has opened at 2312 & made a low of 2305 versus the day high of 2338. The total volume for the day was at 38010 lots and the open interest was at 32780.Now support for the guar is seen at 2303 and below could see a test of 2288. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 2336, a move above could see prices testing 2354.
TRADING IDEAS # GUAR TRADING RANGE IS 2260-2380. # GUAR EDGED UP SLIGHTLY ON CONCERNS OF LOWER OUTPUT # BUY GUAR OCT @ 2300-2315 SL 2280 TGT 2330-2356-2370.NCDEX # NOW SUP IS AT 2302 BELOW THIS NEXT SUP IS AT 2288-2274 LVL. # GUAR IS TAKING RESIST OF 2332 ABV THIS NEXT RESIST AT 2348-2366. # IN BIKANER PRICE ROSE BY OVER 13 RUPEES TO 2303 RUPEES PER 100 KG
PEPPER NCDEX - PEPPER OPEN 14163 HIGH G 14251 2 LOW 13960 CLOSE 14005 % CNG -0.92 RS. CNG -130 VOLUME 2594 OPEN INT 3677 SUP 13,893 13 893 13,781 13,602
RES 14,184 14 184 14,363 14,475
Pepper pp reversed early y g gains and ended lower on intraday profit selling. The prices of Pepper were also under pressure as the Brazilian crop is being offered at a discount to Indian rates but low stocks are limiting the fall. Spot pepper rose by over 52 rupees and ended at 14,275.7 rupees per 100 kg in Kochi. October delivery dropped Rs 130 and settled at Rs 14005/quintal. The contract touched the intra day high of Rs 14251/quintal while low of Rs 13960/quintal. Now support for the pepper is seen at 13893 and below could see a test of 13781. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 14184, 14184 a move above could see prices testing 14363.
TRADING IDEAS # PEPPER TRADING RANGE IS 13600-14250. # PEPPER REVERSED EARLY GAINS AND ENDED LOWER ON PROFIT BOOKING # BUY PEPPER OCT ABV 14120 SL 13940 TGT 14190-14280-14360. NCDEX # PEPPER IS TAKING RES AT 14080 ABV THIS LOOKS TILL 14160-14300. # SPOT PEPPER ROSE BY OVER 52 RUPEES AND ENDED AT 14,275.7 RUPEES PER 100 KG #.
MENTHOL OIL MCX - MENTHOL OPEN 530.00 HIGH 532.00 LOW 518.40 CLOSE 519 90 519.90 % CNG -2.15 RS. CNG -11.40 VOLUME 1564 OPEN INT 3750 SUP 514.9 509.8 501.3
RES 528.5 537.0 542.1
Mentha oil declined more than 2 percent due to aggressive selling pressure. Lack of inquiries from domestic and overseas buyers pressurized Mentha oil. Tracking bearish advices from the cash Mentha oil traded weak. Exporters and stockists remained silent in apprehension of further fall in the prices. October contract dropped Rs 11.4 and settled at Rs 519.9 a kg. The contract made intraday low of Rs 518.4 a kg and high of Rs 532 a kg. Now support for the menthol is seen at 514.80 and below could see a test of 509.80. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 528.40, a move above could see prices testing 537.00.
TRADING IDEAS # MENTHOL TRADING RANGE IS 490-550. # MENTHOL SPOT IS AT 553/-.SPOT IS DOWN BY RS 5/-. # BUY MENTHOL OCT @ 512-515 SL 509.40 TGT 518.50-521.50-524.50.MCX # A JUMP TOWARDS 525-528 LEVEL CAN BE SEEN AGAIN # NOW RES IS AT 522.20 ABV THIS NEXT RES IS AT 525.40-528.60. # MENTHA OIL DECLINED MORE THAN 2 PERCENT DUE TO AGGRESSIVE SELLING
Pivot Table as on Wednesday, October 14, 2009 NAME
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
857.8
CHANGE IN RS
OPEN INT
VOLUME
4850
1500
8.6
3450
990
3.4
BARLEY JPROCT
853
859
848.6
BARLEY JPRDEC INTRADAY LEVEL FOR
889.2
895.2
885.4
Support:
851.27
844.73
892 840.87
BARLEY JPROCT
Resistance
861.67
865.53
872.07
CHILLI OCT
5340
5405
5321
5356
2245
615
-58
CHILLI DEC
5710
5714
5620
5641
2025
540
-166
INTRADAY LEVEL FOR
Support:
5316
5277
5232
CHILLI OCT
Resistance
5400
5445
5484
POSITIVE
WEAK
GUAR GUM OCT
4846
4888
4824
4848
7100
3,025
0
GUAR GUM NOV
4940
4968
4901
4925
25090
9,745
0
INTRADAY LEVEL FOR
Support:
4819
4789
4755
GUAR GUM OCT
Resistance
4883
4917
4947
WEAK
JEERA OCT
11389
11459
11271
11331
1404
2,190
-47
JEERA NOV
11444
11471
11335
11403
7431
3,060
2
INTRADAY LEVEL FOR
Support:
11248.33 11165.67
11060.333
JEERA OCT
Resistance
11436.33 11541.67
11624.333
WEAK
TURMERIC OCT
8193
8409
8150
8407
9980
14,520
322
TURMERIC NOV
7920
8185
7920
8097
10210
14,930
227
INTRADAY LEVEL FOR
Support:
8235
8063
7976
TURMERIC OCT
Resistance
8494
8581
8753
POSITIVE
OPEN INT
VOLUME
CHANGE IN RS
546 540 539 553
61750 116290
27,350 31,160
4 1.8
429 429 426 434
430 431 424 436
31290 114260
905.0 918.0 897.0 897 0 907.0
895.0 895.0 891.0 891 0 911.0
903.0 907.5 887 0 887.0 917.0
2390 530
2069 2075 2047 2069
2047 2052 2036 2080
2058 2069 2025 2091
39100 164570
995 999 971 998
967 968 955 1011
986 991 943 1026
11190 3750
21950 22320 21657 21957
21650 22030 21503 22103
21810 22180 21357 22257
16800 13600
2230 2290 2233 2233
2230 2290 2232 2232
2235 2297 2233 2233
34760 68840
431.10 433.15 425.3 430.4
426.00 428.45 423.1 433.3
427.45 431.00 420.2 435.5
708 797
NAME
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
MUSTARD SEED OCT MUSTARD SEED NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR MUSTARD SEED OCT
544 540 Support:
548 544 544 548
544 539 542 550
MCX WHEAT DEL OCT MCX WHEAT DEL NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR MCX WHEAT DEL OCT
432 429 Support:
433 434 428 432
YELLOW MAIZE OCT YELLOW MAIZE NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR YELLOW MAIZE OCT
897.0 895.0 S Support: t
SOYA BEAN OCT SOYA BEAN NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR SOYA BEAN OCT
2050 2054 Support:
GUR NOV GUR DEC INTRADAY LEVEL FOR GUR NOV
979 988 Support:
STEEL LONG MAR STEEL LONG APR INTRADAY LEVEL FOR STEEL LONG MAR CHANA OCT CHANA NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR CHANA OCT REF SOY OIL OCT REF SOY OIL NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR REF SOY OIL OCT
Resistance:
Resistance:
Resistance:
Resistance:
Resistance:
21900 22310 Support: Resistance:
2255 2320 Support: Resistance:
428.00 430.10 Support: Resistance:
POSITIVE 9,070 66,020
0.95 2.7
WEAK 1200 460
1.5 7
POSITIVE 23,860 99,460
10 21
WEAK 12,860 2 550 2,550
11.4 10.6 10 6
POSITIVE 2,760 3,460
0 -20
POSITIVE 25,020 59,650
-17 17 -17
POSITIVE 93 1199
1.9 2.6
WEAK
: TODAYS IMPORTANT DATAS :TIME 2:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6 00 6:00pm 7:30pm 11:30pm Tentative 0 0 0 0 0 0
CURRENCY
EUR USD USD USD USD USD USD 0 0 0 0 0 0
DATA Industrial Production m/m Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Import Prices m/m I tP i / Business Inventories m/m FOMC Meeting Minutes Federal Budget Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forecast 0.009 0.003 -0.02 0.003 0 003 -0.008 0 -43.3B 0 0 0 0 0 0
Previous -0.003 0.011 0.027 0.02 0 02 -0.01 0 -111.4B 0 0 0 0 0 0
: NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Silver sparkles Sil kl ahead h d off Di Diwali; li b breaches h R Rs 28 28,000-mark:Hitting 000 k Hi i record d hi highs h ffor the h ffourth h straight i h session, i silver il prices i scaled yet another all-time peak of Rs 28,055 per kg in the domestic market on Monday on the back of a strong global rally. A renewed demand from stockists and industrial buyers also pushed up prices to some extent, dealers said. The white metal took just four trading sessions to attain the Rs 28,000 level from Rs 27,000. Meanwhile, gold also hardened and crossed the psychological level of Rs 16,000 per 10 gm in Mumbai on good domestic demand ahead of Diwali festival amid firm London advice. In London, spot gold rose to $1,057.25 an ounce as the dollar turned lower. Back home, pure and standard gold shot up by Rs 75 each before finishing the business at Rs 16,005 and Rs 15,930 per 10 gm, respectively.
The government on Monday notified its decision to double sugar purchase from millers for supply through ration shops in the 2009-10 seasons to protect the poor against high sweetener prices, which have threatened to touch Rs 40 a kg due to a slump in output. Significantly, mills have been barred from selling duty-free imported raw or white sugar to the government for supply under the public distribution system (PDS). Last month, the Empowered Group of Ministers on Food had decided to ask millers to sell 20 per cent of their total output to the government, from 10 per cent earlier, for supply through PDS, technically called levy sugar, from October 1. However, the Centre has not yet announced any change in the price of sugar it buys from millers for supply under the public distribution system system. However, However card holders get sugar through ration shops at Rs 13.50 per kg.
First the drought and then the floods in a gap of just three months have hit prospects of food crops, mainly rice and pulses, but India has adequate reserves to tackle the situation, according to Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen. “The drought had a severe impact on rice production and now the production of pulses will also be low because of the floods,” Mr Sen said. India produced 99.2 million tonnes of rice and 14.7 million tonnes of pulses in the 2008-09 season. Already, apprehensions about the fate of paddy and pulse crops have set the prices spiralling. While rice prices have gone up by about 25% in the last four months for preferred varieties, those of pulses, especially tur, have surged by 50% to as high as Rs 90 a kg. Ironically, now floods in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, considered the worst in decades for the southern region, have severely damaged crops, compounding the worries of farmers as well as consumers.
Flower exports likely to dip 20%: Floriculture exports from India are expected to see a 20 per cent decline this year “as buyers are holding on to their purse strings due to the slowdown,” S Jafar Naqvi, president of the Indian Flowers and Ornamental Plants Welfare Association (iFlora), has said. “Despite the country having over 20,000 nurseries engaged in flower production, including high-value orchids, exports from the country are low as domestic farmers are not able to tap the market,” he said, adding that India is gradually becoming a net importer of cut flowers and plants. Floriculture exports from India touched Rs 750 crore last year, a 65 per cent jump over the previous year. India currently has only 0.25 per cent share of the $17-billion global floriculture market. The domestic cut flower segment was growing 3 per cent year-on-year while the growth rate for ornamental plants was 5.5 per cent, he said. Holland, the global leader in floriculture products with a market share of 70 per cent, is slowly losing its monopoly as its young generation there is not interested in entering the business. This is paving the way for new entrants like Indonesia, Colombia, Israel and Sri Lanka. The time is ripe for India to take the lead now,” Naqvi said, adding that the government needed to make efforts to abolish import duty on inputs and reduce the existing air freight tariff structure to promote floriculture exports.
SILVER
CRUDE
COPPER
ZINC
NICKEL
GUAR
GOLD MCX - GOLD OPEN 15890 HIGH 16048 LOW 15890 CLOSE 16036 % CNG 0.7 RS. CNG 113 VOLUME 25848 OPEN INT 13751 SUP 15,935 15,833 15,777
RES 16,093 16,149 16,251
Gold ended higher in choppy trade, as a weaker U.S. currency prompted investors to hedge against the depreciation of dollar-denominated assets. Gold opened on its lows at 15890 on MCX. Gold rallied as the dollar slumped, drifting back above 16000 and peaked at 16048. It moved sideways within a range as the day came to a close, finally settling at 16036. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 15935 and below could see a test of 15833. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 16093, a move above could see prices testing 16149.
TRADING IDEAS # GOLD TRADING RANGE IS 15450-16200. # GOLD GAINS YESTERDAY ON SUPPORT FROM WEAKEN DOLLAR. 16075-16099-16128.MCX # BUY GOLD DEC ABV 16050 SL 16000 TGT 16075 16099 16128.MCX # IMMEDIATE SUPPORT FOR THE GOLD IS AT 1052$ BELOW THIS WE CAN SEE 1036$ LVL. # OVERALL WE LOOK GOLD TO TOUCH TILL 1090$ ABOVE 1052$ MARK # GOLD / SILVER RATIO IS AT 59.34. YESTERDAY GOLD FIX $ HAS CLOSED HIGHER AT : 1058.75
SILVER MCX - SILVER OPEN 27431 HIGH 27680 LOW 27101 CLOSE 27498 % CNG 0.2 RS. CNG 55 VOLUME 38864 OPEN INT 25798.88 SUP 27,173 26,847 26,594
RES 27,752 28,005 28,331
Silver followed gold higher. But the gray metal's gains were muted by pressure from lower copper prices. Silver opened at 27431 and ticked higher, peaking at 27680 before it quickly lost steam. Profit taking pulled it lower and the selling was persistent, slipping to 27101. A weaker USD and stronger oil helped carry the metal off its lows, finding resistance near 27420. However it remained bid and climbed above this level as the session unwound, closing at 27498. Now support for the silver is seen at 27173 and below could see a test of 26847. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 27752, a move above could see prices testing 28005.
TRADING IDEAS # SILVER TRADING RANGE IS 26800-28000. # SILVER'S GAINS WERE MUTED BY PRESSURE FROM LOWER COPPER PRICES # BUY SILVER DEC ABV 27520 SL 27380 TGT 27590-27672-27725-27800.MCX 27590-27672-27725-27800 MCX # SILVER IS TAKING RES OF 24580 ABV THIS LOOKS TILL 27700-27800 LVL # RUPEE FACTORS IS MORE ON MCX AS RUPEE FIRMNESS CAN CREATE PRESSURE ON BULLION # SILVER $ FIX IS AT : 0 & CURRENTLY SILVER $ IS TRADING AT : 17.99 & UP BY 1.24%
PEPPER
MENTHOL OIL
CRUDE MCX - CRUDE OPEN 3420 HIGH 3448 LOW 3396 CLOSE 3425 % CNG 0.53 RS. CNG 18 VOLUME 98059 OPEN INT 15005 SUP 3,398 3,371 3,346
RES 3,450 3,475 3,502
Crude oil ended higher, as a brighter demand forecast from OPEC and a weakened dollar supported the pp market. World demand for OPEC's oil will be stronger than expected next year, the producer group said. OPEC's view follows higher demand forecasts from the IEA and U.S. Energy Information Administration. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world’s largest oil producer, will maintain cuts in its supplies of crude to refiners in Asia for November. Now support for the crude is seen at 3398 and below could see a test of 3371. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 3450, a move above could see prices testing 3475.
TRADING IDEAS # CRUDE TRADING RANGE IS 3300-3550. # SAUDI ARABIA TO MAINTAIN OIL SHIPMENTS CUTS TO ASIA # BUY CRUDE OCT @ 3430-3440 SL 3408 TGT 3458-3474-3498.MCX # WORLD DEMAND FOR OPEC'S OIL WILL BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED NEXT YEAR # CRUDE INVENTORY WILL RELEASE TOMMOROW AS MONDAY US MKT WAS CLOSED. # CRUDE $ IS TRADING AT : 74.88$ $
COPPER MCX - COPPER OPEN 293.70 HIGH G 294.70 29 0 LOW 283.35 CLOSE 286.40 % CNG -2.36 RS. CNG -6.75 VOLUME 85080 OPEN INT 27023 SUP 281.6 281 6 276.8 270.3
RES 293.0 293 0 299.5 304.3
Copper ended lower, as concerns about over-extended price levels in the face of a weaker near-term demand outlook sapped momentum and pulled prices down to near one-week lows. Copper also fell following news that a labor settlement averted a possible strike later in the year at the world's largest copper mine. Inventories of copper stored in LME warehouses rose 575 metric tons Tuesday, leaving them at 347,950. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Monday afternoon, were up 358 short tons at 56,019 short tons. For today market is looking for the support at 281.6, a break below could see a test of 276.8 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 292.95, a move above could see prices testing 299.5.
TRADING IDEAS # COPPER TRADING RANGE IS 270-300. # COPPER ENDED LOWER AFTER NEWS THAT A LABOR SETTLEMENT WAS REACHED AT CHILE'S ESCONDIDA # BUY COPPER NOV ABV 287 SL 285.80 TGT 287.90-289.20-290.90.MCX # COPPER IS TAKING SUP AT 282 BELOW THIS CAN DROP TO ITS FRESH LOW TILL 276 LEVEL. # CODELCO, PREDICTS DEMAND WILL WEAKEN & PRODUCERS WILL RESTART MINES CLOSED. # YESTERDAY LME STOCK FOR COPPER CAME Up BY 775
ZINC MCX - ZINC OPEN 96.25 HIGH 96.75 LOW 92.1 92 1 CLOSE 93.05 % CNG -3.06 RS. CNG -2.85 VOLUME 15263 OPEN INT 3703 SUP 91.18 89.32 86.53
RES 95.83 98.62 100.48
The global zinc surplus will widen to 380,000 mt this year before narrowing to 227,000 mt in 2010, according to forecasts by the ILZSG. ILZSG Demand is expected to fall by 5.6% to 10.76 million mt, the largest fall since 1975. The only countries where there will be a rise are China (16.8%) and India (6.2%). Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -2.97%. Market has opened at 96.25 & made a low of 92.1 versus the day high of 96.75. The total volume for the day was at 15263 lots and the open interest was at 3703.Now support for the zinc is seen at 91.10 and below could see a test of 89.30. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 95.80, a move above could see prices testing 98.60.
TRADING IDEAS # ZINC TRADING RANGE IS 85-102. # ZINC SURPLUS WILL RISE TO 380,000T THIS YEAR – ILZSG # BUY ZINC OCT @ 93-93.40 SL 92.20 TGT 94.25-95.10-96.30.MCX # ZINC IS GETTING SUP AT 92.20 AND RESISTANCE AT 94.30 LEVELS. # MORGAN STANLEY RAISED ITS ESTIMATES FOR COPPER, ZINC AND NICKEL FROM 2009 THROUGH 2012. # YESTERDAY LME STOCK FOR ZINC CAME Down BY -1500
NICKEL MCX - NICKEL OPEN 877.90 HIGH G 882.90 882 90 LOW 841.40 CLOSE 849.30 % CNG -2.92 RS. CNG -24.80 VOLUME 43384 OPEN INT 14584 SUP 832.8 832 8 816.4 791.3
RES 874.3 874 3 899.4 915.8
Nickel prices won't rise too much from current levels because production of cheaper nickel pig iron will increase and weigh on prices. Nickel has touched a low of Rs 841.4 a kg after opening at Rs.877.9, and last traded at Rs 849.3.For today market is looking for the support at 832.80, a break below could see a test of 816.30 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 874.30, a move above could see prices testing 899.30.
TRADING IDEAS # NICKEL TRADING RANGE IS 800-890. # NICKEL PRICES WON'T RISE TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT LEVELS # BUY NICKEL OCT @ 850-854 SL 845.20 TGT 859.80-864.50-869-875.MCX # NICKEL IS GETTING SUP AT 844.60 BELOW THIS LOOKS TO TAKE SUP AT 837-830 LVL. # WESTERN AREAS NL GETS ITS RICH-GRADE OPEN CUT NICKEL MINE UNDERWAY # YESTERDAY LME STOCK FOR NICKEL CAME DOWN BY -36
GUAR NCDEX - GUAR OPEN 2312 HIGH 2338 LOW 2305 CLOSE 2319 % CNG 0.43 RS. CNG 10 VOLUME 38010 OPEN INT 32780 SUP 2,303 2,288 2,270
RES 2,336 2,354 2,369
Guar edged up slightly towards the end on concerns of lower output profit selling p due to crop p damage. g Intraday yp g by the traders slashed early gains from Guar. Likelihood of significant decline in the output on the back of erratic monsoon supported rise in Guar. Guar yesterday we have seen that market has moved 0.43%. Market has opened at 2312 & made a low of 2305 versus the day high of 2338. The total volume for the day was at 38010 lots and the open interest was at 32780.Now support for the guar is seen at 2303 and below could see a test of 2288. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 2336, a move above could see prices testing 2354.
TRADING IDEAS # GUAR TRADING RANGE IS 2260-2380. # GUAR EDGED UP SLIGHTLY ON CONCERNS OF LOWER OUTPUT # BUY GUAR OCT @ 2300-2315 SL 2280 TGT 2330-2356-2370.NCDEX # NOW SUP IS AT 2302 BELOW THIS NEXT SUP IS AT 2288-2274 LVL. # GUAR IS TAKING RESIST OF 2332 ABV THIS NEXT RESIST AT 2348-2366. # IN BIKANER PRICE ROSE BY OVER 13 RUPEES TO 2303 RUPEES PER 100 KG
PEPPER NCDEX - PEPPER OPEN 14163 HIGH G 14251 2 LOW 13960 CLOSE 14005 % CNG -0.92 RS. CNG -130 VOLUME 2594 OPEN INT 3677 SUP 13,893 13 893 13,781 13,602
RES 14,184 14 184 14,363 14,475
Pepper pp reversed early y g gains and ended lower on intraday profit selling. The prices of Pepper were also under pressure as the Brazilian crop is being offered at a discount to Indian rates but low stocks are limiting the fall. Spot pepper rose by over 52 rupees and ended at 14,275.7 rupees per 100 kg in Kochi. October delivery dropped Rs 130 and settled at Rs 14005/quintal. The contract touched the intra day high of Rs 14251/quintal while low of Rs 13960/quintal. Now support for the pepper is seen at 13893 and below could see a test of 13781. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 14184, 14184 a move above could see prices testing 14363.
TRADING IDEAS # PEPPER TRADING RANGE IS 13600-14250. # PEPPER REVERSED EARLY GAINS AND ENDED LOWER ON PROFIT BOOKING # BUY PEPPER OCT ABV 14120 SL 13940 TGT 14190-14280-14360. NCDEX # PEPPER IS TAKING RES AT 14080 ABV THIS LOOKS TILL 14160-14300. # SPOT PEPPER ROSE BY OVER 52 RUPEES AND ENDED AT 14,275.7 RUPEES PER 100 KG #.
MENTHOL OIL MCX - MENTHOL OPEN 530.00 HIGH 532.00 LOW 518.40 CLOSE 519 90 519.90 % CNG -2.15 RS. CNG -11.40 VOLUME 1564 OPEN INT 3750 SUP 514.9 509.8 501.3
RES 528.5 537.0 542.1
Mentha oil declined more than 2 percent due to aggressive selling pressure. Lack of inquiries from domestic and overseas buyers pressurized Mentha oil. Tracking bearish advices from the cash Mentha oil traded weak. Exporters and stockists remained silent in apprehension of further fall in the prices. October contract dropped Rs 11.4 and settled at Rs 519.9 a kg. The contract made intraday low of Rs 518.4 a kg and high of Rs 532 a kg. Now support for the menthol is seen at 514.80 and below could see a test of 509.80. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 528.40, a move above could see prices testing 537.00.
TRADING IDEAS # MENTHOL TRADING RANGE IS 490-550. # MENTHOL SPOT IS AT 553/-.SPOT IS DOWN BY RS 5/-. # BUY MENTHOL OCT @ 512-515 SL 509.40 TGT 518.50-521.50-524.50.MCX # A JUMP TOWARDS 525-528 LEVEL CAN BE SEEN AGAIN # NOW RES IS AT 522.20 ABV THIS NEXT RES IS AT 525.40-528.60. # MENTHA OIL DECLINED MORE THAN 2 PERCENT DUE TO AGGRESSIVE SELLING
Pivot Table as on Wednesday, October 14, 2009 NAME
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
857.8
CHANGE IN RS
OPEN INT
VOLUME
4850
1500
8.6
3450
990
3.4
BARLEY JPROCT
853
859
848.6
BARLEY JPRDEC INTRADAY LEVEL FOR
889.2
895.2
885.4
Support:
851.27
844.73
892 840.87
BARLEY JPROCT
Resistance
861.67
865.53
872.07
CHILLI OCT
5340
5405
5321
5356
2245
615
-58
CHILLI DEC
5710
5714
5620
5641
2025
540
-166
INTRADAY LEVEL FOR
Support:
5316
5277
5232
CHILLI OCT
Resistance
5400
5445
5484
POSITIVE
WEAK
GUAR GUM OCT
4846
4888
4824
4848
7100
3,025
0
GUAR GUM NOV
4940
4968
4901
4925
25090
9,745
0
INTRADAY LEVEL FOR
Support:
4819
4789
4755
GUAR GUM OCT
Resistance
4883
4917
4947
WEAK
JEERA OCT
11389
11459
11271
11331
1404
2,190
-47
JEERA NOV
11444
11471
11335
11403
7431
3,060
2
INTRADAY LEVEL FOR
Support:
11248.33 11165.67
11060.333
JEERA OCT
Resistance
11436.33 11541.67
11624.333
WEAK
TURMERIC OCT
8193
8409
8150
8407
9980
14,520
322
TURMERIC NOV
7920
8185
7920
8097
10210
14,930
227
INTRADAY LEVEL FOR
Support:
8235
8063
7976
TURMERIC OCT
Resistance
8494
8581
8753
POSITIVE
OPEN INT
VOLUME
CHANGE IN RS
546 540 539 553
61750 116290
27,350 31,160
4 1.8
429 429 426 434
430 431 424 436
31290 114260
905.0 918.0 897.0 897 0 907.0
895.0 895.0 891.0 891 0 911.0
903.0 907.5 887 0 887.0 917.0
2390 530
2069 2075 2047 2069
2047 2052 2036 2080
2058 2069 2025 2091
39100 164570
995 999 971 998
967 968 955 1011
986 991 943 1026
11190 3750
21950 22320 21657 21957
21650 22030 21503 22103
21810 22180 21357 22257
16800 13600
2230 2290 2233 2233
2230 2290 2232 2232
2235 2297 2233 2233
34760 68840
431.10 433.15 425.3 430.4
426.00 428.45 423.1 433.3
427.45 431.00 420.2 435.5
708 797
NAME
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
MUSTARD SEED OCT MUSTARD SEED NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR MUSTARD SEED OCT
544 540 Support:
548 544 544 548
544 539 542 550
MCX WHEAT DEL OCT MCX WHEAT DEL NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR MCX WHEAT DEL OCT
432 429 Support:
433 434 428 432
YELLOW MAIZE OCT YELLOW MAIZE NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR YELLOW MAIZE OCT
897.0 895.0 S Support: t
SOYA BEAN OCT SOYA BEAN NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR SOYA BEAN OCT
2050 2054 Support:
GUR NOV GUR DEC INTRADAY LEVEL FOR GUR NOV
979 988 Support:
STEEL LONG MAR STEEL LONG APR INTRADAY LEVEL FOR STEEL LONG MAR CHANA OCT CHANA NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR CHANA OCT REF SOY OIL OCT REF SOY OIL NOV INTRADAY LEVEL FOR REF SOY OIL OCT
Resistance:
Resistance:
Resistance:
Resistance:
Resistance:
21900 22310 Support: Resistance:
2255 2320 Support: Resistance:
428.00 430.10 Support: Resistance:
POSITIVE 9,070 66,020
0.95 2.7
WEAK 1200 460
1.5 7
POSITIVE 23,860 99,460
10 21
WEAK 12,860 2 550 2,550
11.4 10.6 10 6
POSITIVE 2,760 3,460
0 -20
POSITIVE 25,020 59,650
-17 17 -17
POSITIVE 93 1199
1.9 2.6
WEAK
: TODAYS IMPORTANT DATAS :TIME 2:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6 00 6:00pm 7:30pm 11:30pm Tentative 0 0 0 0 0 0
CURRENCY
EUR USD USD USD USD USD USD 0 0 0 0 0 0
DATA Industrial Production m/m Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Import Prices m/m I tP i / Business Inventories m/m FOMC Meeting Minutes Federal Budget Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forecast 0.009 0.003 -0.02 0.003 0 003 -0.008 0 -43.3B 0 0 0 0 0 0
Previous -0.003 0.011 0.027 0.02 0 02 -0.01 0 -111.4B 0 0 0 0 0 0
: NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Silver sparkles Sil kl ahead h d off Di Diwali; li b breaches h R Rs 28 28,000-mark:Hitting 000 k Hi i record d hi highs h ffor the h ffourth h straight i h session, i silver il prices i scaled yet another all-time peak of Rs 28,055 per kg in the domestic market on Monday on the back of a strong global rally. A renewed demand from stockists and industrial buyers also pushed up prices to some extent, dealers said. The white metal took just four trading sessions to attain the Rs 28,000 level from Rs 27,000. Meanwhile, gold also hardened and crossed the psychological level of Rs 16,000 per 10 gm in Mumbai on good domestic demand ahead of Diwali festival amid firm London advice. In London, spot gold rose to $1,057.25 an ounce as the dollar turned lower. Back home, pure and standard gold shot up by Rs 75 each before finishing the business at Rs 16,005 and Rs 15,930 per 10 gm, respectively.
The government on Monday notified its decision to double sugar purchase from millers for supply through ration shops in the 2009-10 seasons to protect the poor against high sweetener prices, which have threatened to touch Rs 40 a kg due to a slump in output. Significantly, mills have been barred from selling duty-free imported raw or white sugar to the government for supply under the public distribution system (PDS). Last month, the Empowered Group of Ministers on Food had decided to ask millers to sell 20 per cent of their total output to the government, from 10 per cent earlier, for supply through PDS, technically called levy sugar, from October 1. However, the Centre has not yet announced any change in the price of sugar it buys from millers for supply under the public distribution system system. However, However card holders get sugar through ration shops at Rs 13.50 per kg.
First the drought and then the floods in a gap of just three months have hit prospects of food crops, mainly rice and pulses, but India has adequate reserves to tackle the situation, according to Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen. “The drought had a severe impact on rice production and now the production of pulses will also be low because of the floods,” Mr Sen said. India produced 99.2 million tonnes of rice and 14.7 million tonnes of pulses in the 2008-09 season. Already, apprehensions about the fate of paddy and pulse crops have set the prices spiralling. While rice prices have gone up by about 25% in the last four months for preferred varieties, those of pulses, especially tur, have surged by 50% to as high as Rs 90 a kg. Ironically, now floods in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, considered the worst in decades for the southern region, have severely damaged crops, compounding the worries of farmers as well as consumers.
Flower exports likely to dip 20%: Floriculture exports from India are expected to see a 20 per cent decline this year “as buyers are holding on to their purse strings due to the slowdown,” S Jafar Naqvi, president of the Indian Flowers and Ornamental Plants Welfare Association (iFlora), has said. “Despite the country having over 20,000 nurseries engaged in flower production, including high-value orchids, exports from the country are low as domestic farmers are not able to tap the market,” he said, adding that India is gradually becoming a net importer of cut flowers and plants. Floriculture exports from India touched Rs 750 crore last year, a 65 per cent jump over the previous year. India currently has only 0.25 per cent share of the $17-billion global floriculture market. The domestic cut flower segment was growing 3 per cent year-on-year while the growth rate for ornamental plants was 5.5 per cent, he said. Holland, the global leader in floriculture products with a market share of 70 per cent, is slowly losing its monopoly as its young generation there is not interested in entering the business. This is paving the way for new entrants like Indonesia, Colombia, Israel and Sri Lanka. The time is ripe for India to take the lead now,” Naqvi said, adding that the government needed to make efforts to abolish import duty on inputs and reduce the existing air freight tariff structure to promote floriculture exports.
