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Duncan Ayling Head of Offshore BWEA
Offshore Renewables Opportunities
Duncan Ayling BWEA Head of Offshore 11th November 2009
Renewable Futures Power for Growth
BWEA –members Sponsors
Over 500 Company members
Broad membership of developers, suppliers, grid companies, financiers and service providers BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
Certainty of Opportunity Cross Party Political Support Labour Ed Miliband, Energy and Climate Change SoS “it should be socially unacceptable to be against wind farms”
Conservatives Greg Clark, Shadow Energy and Climate Change SoS Low Carbon Economy Paper "Britain is uniquely placed to be the world's first low carbon economy: we have the natural resources to generate wind and wave power ”
Liberal Democrats Simon Hughes, Shadow Energy and Climate Change SoS
“the UK is staring at a climate change abyss …….. there should be a minimum of 33GW of offshore wind by 2020” BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
Project delivery • 1 GW installed by end 2009 • Rounds 1+2 = < 8 GW • Potential Extensions to Rounds 1+2 = 1-2 GW? • Scottish Territorial Waters exclusivity agreements awarded = < 6.5GW • Round 3 = 25 GW Totals over 40 GW
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
BWEA Estimated UK Installed Offshore Wind Capacity to 2020 UK Offshore Wind Capacity 25000
20000 R1
15000
R2 R2.5
MW
STW R3
10000
5000
0 2009
BWEA | Regen SW
2010
2011
| 11-11-2009
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Major Business Opportunity for the UK By 2020 • Up to £60 billion of investment* • Up to 60,000 jobs** • Up to 4000 turbines*** Service
Supply
Harbours & ports Vessels Operation & Maintenance On and offshore construction Storage Transport Training Divers
Monopiles and jackets Steel manufacture and fabrication Concrete Cables & transformers Bearings Castings Lubricants Ancillary items
*Assumes £3M/MW for 20 GW installed **Bain & Co scenario assumes 70% UK manufacturing ***Assuming average turbine capacity of 5 MW BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
BVG Estimated European Installed Offshore Wind Capacity to 2050
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
BWEA State of the Marine Industry Report • Commissioned by the BWEA
• Conducted by Entec • Launched at BWEA 31 conference 22nd October • Available for download www.bwea.com/marine
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
Report findings UK Wave and Tidal Capacity Figures • Installed Capacity of 1.95 MW • 27 MW have obtained planning consent • 57.5 MW of commercial projects being planned • 700 MW expected in Pentland Firth Area by 2020
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
Report Findings Installed Capacity Predictions
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
2009
Cumulative Installed Capacity [MW]
1-2000 MW installed in UK by 2020
Offshore transmission opportunity • Offshore Transmission Operator (OFTO) would build, own and maintain the transmission asset • Ofgem estimate £15bn investment required • Long term, regulated, low risk return Key Issues for industry: • Flexibility in design of the transmission assets • Flexibility in appointment of the OFTO • Consenting of cable and onshore components critical lead time items BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
UK is witnessing an offshore renewables revolution UK has the most offshore wind, wave and tidal energy installed and the largest plans in the world Major opportunity for business in the UK and internationally And finally…..
Don’t believe everything you read in the papers
Report Findings Cost of energy to fall with deployment 50
Cost of energy [p/kWh]
45 40 35 30 5ROC
25
4ROC
20
3ROC
15
2ROC
10
1ROC
5 1
0 1
10
100
Installed capacity [MW] BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
1000
Report Findings BWEA Recommendation BWEA are now lobbying the UK Government for a stronger market pull mechanism equivalent to 5 ROCs over the entire UK UK Renewable Energy Strategy June 2009 – UK Marine Action Plan due in Spring 2010 – BWEA are heavily involved and working closely with Government
ROC review for wave and tidal expected 2010
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
Offshore Renewables Opportunities
Duncan Ayling BWEA Head of Offshore 11th November 2009
Renewable Futures Power for Growth
BWEA –members Sponsors
Over 500 Company members
Broad membership of developers, suppliers, grid companies, financiers and service providers BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
Certainty of Opportunity Cross Party Political Support Labour Ed Miliband, Energy and Climate Change SoS “it should be socially unacceptable to be against wind farms”
Conservatives Greg Clark, Shadow Energy and Climate Change SoS Low Carbon Economy Paper "Britain is uniquely placed to be the world's first low carbon economy: we have the natural resources to generate wind and wave power ”
Liberal Democrats Simon Hughes, Shadow Energy and Climate Change SoS
“the UK is staring at a climate change abyss …….. there should be a minimum of 33GW of offshore wind by 2020” BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
Project delivery • 1 GW installed by end 2009 • Rounds 1+2 = < 8 GW • Potential Extensions to Rounds 1+2 = 1-2 GW? • Scottish Territorial Waters exclusivity agreements awarded = < 6.5GW • Round 3 = 25 GW Totals over 40 GW
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
BWEA Estimated UK Installed Offshore Wind Capacity to 2020 UK Offshore Wind Capacity 25000
20000 R1
15000
R2 R2.5
MW
STW R3
10000
5000
0 2009
BWEA | Regen SW
2010
2011
| 11-11-2009
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Major Business Opportunity for the UK By 2020 • Up to £60 billion of investment* • Up to 60,000 jobs** • Up to 4000 turbines*** Service
Supply
Harbours & ports Vessels Operation & Maintenance On and offshore construction Storage Transport Training Divers
Monopiles and jackets Steel manufacture and fabrication Concrete Cables & transformers Bearings Castings Lubricants Ancillary items
*Assumes £3M/MW for 20 GW installed **Bain & Co scenario assumes 70% UK manufacturing ***Assuming average turbine capacity of 5 MW BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
BVG Estimated European Installed Offshore Wind Capacity to 2050
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
BWEA State of the Marine Industry Report • Commissioned by the BWEA
• Conducted by Entec • Launched at BWEA 31 conference 22nd October • Available for download www.bwea.com/marine
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
Report findings UK Wave and Tidal Capacity Figures • Installed Capacity of 1.95 MW • 27 MW have obtained planning consent • 57.5 MW of commercial projects being planned • 700 MW expected in Pentland Firth Area by 2020
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
Report Findings Installed Capacity Predictions
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
2009
Cumulative Installed Capacity [MW]
1-2000 MW installed in UK by 2020
Offshore transmission opportunity • Offshore Transmission Operator (OFTO) would build, own and maintain the transmission asset • Ofgem estimate £15bn investment required • Long term, regulated, low risk return Key Issues for industry: • Flexibility in design of the transmission assets • Flexibility in appointment of the OFTO • Consenting of cable and onshore components critical lead time items BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
UK is witnessing an offshore renewables revolution UK has the most offshore wind, wave and tidal energy installed and the largest plans in the world Major opportunity for business in the UK and internationally And finally…..
Don’t believe everything you read in the papers
Report Findings Cost of energy to fall with deployment 50
Cost of energy [p/kWh]
45 40 35 30 5ROC
25
4ROC
20
3ROC
15
2ROC
10
1ROC
5 1
0 1
10
100
Installed capacity [MW] BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
1000
Report Findings BWEA Recommendation BWEA are now lobbying the UK Government for a stronger market pull mechanism equivalent to 5 ROCs over the entire UK UK Renewable Energy Strategy June 2009 – UK Marine Action Plan due in Spring 2010 – BWEA are heavily involved and working closely with Government
ROC review for wave and tidal expected 2010
BWEA | Regen SW
| 11-11-2009
