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Where will we be in 2020? Cheryl Hiles Acting Chief Executive
Presentation outline Where will we be in 2020 if we take the opportunity and get it right? What does getting it right look like? – A strategic approach – Effective delivery – A change in values
A STRATEGIC APPROACH
We will have an ambitious national strategy with the political will to implement it...........................
We will have regional deployment strategies and local energy plans facilitating innovative local solutions....
Green collar jobs will be fundamental to our economy Over £100bn pounds will have been invested by industry and the public sector Supply chains will be international, but the UK will have found its niche Infrastructure will have been developed to capture economic benefit from the expansion of renewables offshore We will be exporting our knowledge based skills across the world
A STEP CHANGE IN DEPLOYMENT
A significant proportion of the energy gap will have been met by renewable electricity capacity............. Source: The Road to 2020, Regen SW, 2008
....and we will have seen a rapid expansion in renewable heat at all levels...............................
All existing renewable energy technologies will be deployed across the UK ........................................
“The challenging nature of a 2020 target and the significant deployment risks mean that it will be essential to achieve high and rapid deployment in all technologies.”
We will have seen an international ‘sprint for wind’ offshore.................................................................
The Carbon Trust estimate that the UK could need at least 29 GW of offshore wind to meet EU 2020 targets
This will require a total investment of up to £75 billion
Similar in magnitude to past investment cycles – possible but will need significant growth in the supply chain
Source: The Carbon Trust
But will the UK have captured its fair share of the economic benefits?...............................................
Source: Carbon Trust
Source: The Carbon Trust
The deep water challenge will have been met......... 13km offshore
>24km offshore
SW Workshop prediction for 2020
and there will be two major offshore wind farms in the south west........................................................ “Achieving 15% is critically dependent on the development of offshore wind in the region.” The Road to 2020
Source: The Crown Estate
The south west will have risen to the regional renewables challenge..................................... 20%
25
Renewable generation TWh
20
15% Severn tidal offshore wind
15
marine energy transport onshore wind
10
built environment - existing built environment - new LfG, biomass, hydro, EfW, AD
5
Energy efficiency and demand red'n
0 Existing -5
Existing
Scenario 1
Current policy
Source: The Road to 2020, Regen SW, 2008
Scenario 2
15%
Scenario 3
20%
A CHANGE IN VALUES
Demand reduction will be second nature................ •
2020 = 2005 – demand reduction + growth = 129 TWh
•
“Reducing energy demand and increasing energy efficiency will play a central role in making these targets achievable. We estimate that the absence of a successful energy demand reduction programme will require an additional 4 TWh of renewable energy production in the region.”
Low carbon development will be the norm..............
We will have found new levers to address energy use in existing buildings......................................... 25
Renewable generation TWh
20 Severn tidal offshore wind
15
marine energy transport onshore wind
10
built environment - existing built environment - new LfG, biomass, hydro, EfW, AD
5
Energy efficiency and demand red'n
0 Existing
-5
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
We will be using our resources wisely...................
• Sustainable land use planning and marine spatial planning will be delivering optimal solutions
We will be looking forward to how we deliver the 80% cut in carbon emissions by 2050 required.... • Commercial wave and tidal power will be the next big opportunity
• Transport will still be the next big challenge
Our carbon footprint will be significantly reduced....
“Meeting the 15% target would result in carbon emission savings from energy use of about 30%, and would reduce the carbon footprint of the region significantly.”
An unrealistic vision of the future? Achieving 15% renewable energy in the south west is possible but needs: Rapid changes in national policy Stronger support locally Reduction in power and heat demand of 20% High contributions from all renewable technologies Extensive retrofit of energy efficiency and renewable heat in existing buildings Offshore wind in 30 – 50 metres of water
How much of the benefit can we capture?
Cheryl Hiles Acting Chief Executive
[email protected] 01392 494399
Presentation outline Where will we be in 2020 if we take the opportunity and get it right? What does getting it right look like? – A strategic approach – Effective delivery – A change in values
A STRATEGIC APPROACH
We will have an ambitious national strategy with the political will to implement it...........................
We will have regional deployment strategies and local energy plans facilitating innovative local solutions....
Green collar jobs will be fundamental to our economy Over £100bn pounds will have been invested by industry and the public sector Supply chains will be international, but the UK will have found its niche Infrastructure will have been developed to capture economic benefit from the expansion of renewables offshore We will be exporting our knowledge based skills across the world
A STEP CHANGE IN DEPLOYMENT
A significant proportion of the energy gap will have been met by renewable electricity capacity............. Source: The Road to 2020, Regen SW, 2008
....and we will have seen a rapid expansion in renewable heat at all levels...............................
All existing renewable energy technologies will be deployed across the UK ........................................
“The challenging nature of a 2020 target and the significant deployment risks mean that it will be essential to achieve high and rapid deployment in all technologies.”
We will have seen an international ‘sprint for wind’ offshore.................................................................
The Carbon Trust estimate that the UK could need at least 29 GW of offshore wind to meet EU 2020 targets
This will require a total investment of up to £75 billion
Similar in magnitude to past investment cycles – possible but will need significant growth in the supply chain
Source: The Carbon Trust
But will the UK have captured its fair share of the economic benefits?...............................................
Source: Carbon Trust
Source: The Carbon Trust
The deep water challenge will have been met......... 13km offshore
>24km offshore
SW Workshop prediction for 2020
and there will be two major offshore wind farms in the south west........................................................ “Achieving 15% is critically dependent on the development of offshore wind in the region.” The Road to 2020
Source: The Crown Estate
The south west will have risen to the regional renewables challenge..................................... 20%
25
Renewable generation TWh
20
15% Severn tidal offshore wind
15
marine energy transport onshore wind
10
built environment - existing built environment - new LfG, biomass, hydro, EfW, AD
5
Energy efficiency and demand red'n
0 Existing -5
Existing
Scenario 1
Current policy
Source: The Road to 2020, Regen SW, 2008
Scenario 2
15%
Scenario 3
20%
A CHANGE IN VALUES
Demand reduction will be second nature................ •
2020 = 2005 – demand reduction + growth = 129 TWh
•
“Reducing energy demand and increasing energy efficiency will play a central role in making these targets achievable. We estimate that the absence of a successful energy demand reduction programme will require an additional 4 TWh of renewable energy production in the region.”
Low carbon development will be the norm..............
We will have found new levers to address energy use in existing buildings......................................... 25
Renewable generation TWh
20 Severn tidal offshore wind
15
marine energy transport onshore wind
10
built environment - existing built environment - new LfG, biomass, hydro, EfW, AD
5
Energy efficiency and demand red'n
0 Existing
-5
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
We will be using our resources wisely...................
• Sustainable land use planning and marine spatial planning will be delivering optimal solutions
We will be looking forward to how we deliver the 80% cut in carbon emissions by 2050 required.... • Commercial wave and tidal power will be the next big opportunity
• Transport will still be the next big challenge
Our carbon footprint will be significantly reduced....
“Meeting the 15% target would result in carbon emission savings from energy use of about 30%, and would reduce the carbon footprint of the region significantly.”
An unrealistic vision of the future? Achieving 15% renewable energy in the south west is possible but needs: Rapid changes in national policy Stronger support locally Reduction in power and heat demand of 20% High contributions from all renewable technologies Extensive retrofit of energy efficiency and renewable heat in existing buildings Offshore wind in 30 – 50 metres of water
How much of the benefit can we capture?
Cheryl Hiles Acting Chief Executive
[email protected] 01392 494399
