1975
Success of Point Barrow Shipping Transits
Alexander Brovkin – Tri Ocean Engineering Ltd. Chris Hill - Canatec Associates International Ltd. Frank Bercha – The Bercha Group
Presented to SNAME Arctic Section 21 December 2005
Point Barrow
2
Key Factors of Successful Transit 1. 2. 3. 4.
Transport method considerations during the design of Cargo Properly selected marine transportation equipment Properly selected icebreaking support vessels Precise location of shear boundary and seabed bathymetry for route selection 5. Confirmation of ice-free window availability for the time of transit: Analysis of Historical Data Estimate of invasion of first year, second year or multi-year ice into the ice-free transportation window due to currents and winds Ongoing observations on area ice dynamics
6. Quantitative risk analysis of a transit around Point Barrow in specific year 7. Probabilistic analysis of a successful transit based on best estimates of Monte Carlo simulation 8. Precise planning of the voyage 9. Real time observation (any type of ice management) 10. Back-up Planning 3
“Inside Passage” (Depth less than 10 m) Voyages Around Point Barrow Started in 19th Century for whale hunt Early 20th Century to 1950’s very few transits 1950’s DEW Line Construction Activities along the Alaskan and Canadian Beaufort Shorelines 1958-1968 successful voyages made by Crowley each year Starting in 1968 with oil discoveries in Prudhoe Bay and for almost 50 year now successful sealifts accomplished on a yearly basis 4
“Inside Passage” (Depth less than 10 m) Volumes of Cargo Delivered Alaskan DEW Line Construction (1958-1983) Crowley used 280 Tugs and 250 barges Tonnage almost 2,300,000 tonnes
Oil and Gas Equipment to Prudhoe Bay (1968-1983) Crowley used 240 Tugs and 260 barges Tonnage roughly 1,000,000 tonnes
ATL move of 4 Tarsiut caissons from Vancouver to Canadian Beaufort (August of 1981) ATL dry tow of Esso’s CRI from Wainwright to Tuk (August of 1982) Crowley move of Northstar Modules for BP in 20012002 (largest module of 3,500 tons) … and many more 5
Deeper Water Passage (over 10 meters depth)
Initial mobilizations of SSDC, CIDS, Molikpaq Platforms Multiple SSDC/Mat tows out and back into the Beaufort Sea. Tow of “Canmar Explorer” in 1994
Mobilization of the Molikpaq and CIDS (“Orlan”) Platforms to Sakhalin Island Offshore 6
Self-Propelled Operation to Enter the Beaufort Sea
Big Lift 2001 Happy-R Vessel transported 3 small barges to Tuk
No icebreaking assistance was provided 7
1975 !!
1975 – inside passage or nearshore passage did not open 8
1975 !!
1975 - heavy ice conditions delayed the entry by almost 2 months
9
1975 !!
1975 – not all planned 155,000 tonnes tonnage made through 10
1975 !!
REASONS: Late break-up, Summer Ice Intrusions, and early freeze-up 11
Situations Similar to 2003 years
A wedge of heavy ice temporarily block the route at the level of Barter Island
12
Shallow Water “Inside” Passage vs. Deeper Water Passage OFFSHORE PACK
Arctic Ocean
Point Barrow
Chukchi Sea 2 -3 nm
SHEAR ZONE ICE SHORE FAST ICE
Beaufort Sea
1- several nm (1.5-2 m thick)
20 meter 10 meter 13
Shallow Water “Inside” Passage vs. Deeper Water Passage
NOAA scene showing fast ice, First-year ice and old pack ice.
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, 29 December 1987; Yukon and NWT. 14
Marine Equipment Selection and Cargo Configuration
CARGO COG - ? WEIGHT - ?
DRAFT 7' UKC Vessel Blue Marlin Black Marlin Mighty Servant 1 Mighty Servant 3
Max Draft, DWT, m 1000 tons 10.3 78 10.11 57 8.77 40 9.06 29
UKC, m
Depth, m
2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
12.4 12.21 10.87 11.16
15
Icebreakers Support Inside Passage
Deeper Passage
16
Analysis of Historical Data U.S. National Ice Center weekly ice charts
17
Analysis of Historical Data Archived satellite data High frequency of coverage and low cost of acquisition
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, 29 December 1987; Yukon and NWT. 18
Analysis of Historical Data Archived satellite data High frequency of coverage and low cost of acquisition
NOAA weather satellite scene 30 June 2005
19
Analysis of Historical Data Leads in ice Data extracted from weather satellite images. (MMS, 2005)
20
Analysis of Historical Data
Zones used in extracting lead data from satellite images (MMS, 2005).
21
Probability of Occurrence Determination of the ice parameters of interest affecting potential transit corridors. •Multi-year ice •Second-year ice •First-year ice •Open water •Extreme ice features
22
Probability of Occurrence
Multi-year hummock field
Ice island fragments 23
Probability of Occurrence Example of open water along the Alaskan coast east of Point Barrow, i.e. outside the Point Barrow transit zone but along a possible corridor to a destination site.
© 2001 CSA/ASC 24
Shear Zone Boundary
Shear of gyre against landfast ice creates significant ridges east of Point Barrow. (map Mahoney et al., 2005)
25
Shear Zone Boundary Recent literature (POAC 05 and MMS). Probability of landfast ice occurrence between October and July (Mahoney et al., 2005).
26
Forecasting Ice Dynamics Requirements: •Advance development and testing of regional/local forecast mechanism. •Good data on area marine forces. •Accurate regional weather forecasts. •Consistent and frequent feedback from field.
27
Forecasting Ice Dynamics
28
Forecasting Ice Dynamics
Example of forecast local ice drift superimposed on same-day satellite picture.
29
Forecasting Ice Dynamics
Example of tabular ice forecast report form
30
Probabilistic Analysis Simulation of transits using Monte Carlo or other models. Requires input data set including following parameters:
•Historical ice concentration •Historical level ice thickness •Historical ridge/hummock/rubble data
•Index of distances covered by various combinations of ice parameters.
31
Schedule Risk Analysis General Approaches Data and information. Probabilistic model constructed for activity time and cost variations. Main stakeholders interviewed. Principal schedule scenarios identified and modelled as Cases. Case schedule and cost probability distributions. Project composite schedule and cost probability distributions.
32
Risk Analysis
CASES CASE 1 General
Routine delays without qualitative changes in schedule.
CASE 2 Barrow Closed
Sealift impossible resulting in at least one year project delay.
CASE 3 Gravel Permit Delay
CASE 4 Winter Activity Delayed
Pad construction delayed one year.
Reduction of winter construction window duration. 33
Cumulative Distribution for Total Cost – Case 1
34
Cumulative Distribution for Expected Total Cost
35
Risk Analysis SUMMARY
Planned Cost (US $MM)
Total Prob. Cost (US $MM) Mean
Weight
1 – General
651.90
676.06
0.545
2 – Barrow Closed
651.90
676.06
0.030
3 – Gravel Permit Delay
651.90
706.06
0.300
4 – Winter Activity Delays
651.90
686.28
0.125
Case
Total Expected Cost (US $MM) – Probability Mean
686.42 36
Choosing the Optima Time of transit: Period of the year, to maximize mobilization costs.
Final routeing: Dependent on master’s judgement and developing ice and weather conditions.
37
Real Time Monitoring
© 2001 CSA/ASC 38
Real Time Monitoring •High quality daily weather reports. •High quality weather forecasts •Daily satellite coverage, cloud permitting. •Pre-arranged radar satellite coverage for difficult transit legs.
39
Closing
Utilize results of work done in the past
Changes in environment and technology call for revisiting of the transit issues To achieve best results the work should be organized and implemented in a structured manner Use of local and current knowledge
40
Sources of Data and Information
SNAME Arctic Section Archives Canatec Associates International Ltd. Bercha Group Thank You and Merry Christmas !! 41
Alexander Brovkin – Tri Ocean Engineering Ltd. Chris Hill - Canatec Associates International Ltd. Frank Bercha – The Bercha Group
Presented to SNAME Arctic Section 21 December 2005
Point Barrow
2
Key Factors of Successful Transit 1. 2. 3. 4.
Transport method considerations during the design of Cargo Properly selected marine transportation equipment Properly selected icebreaking support vessels Precise location of shear boundary and seabed bathymetry for route selection 5. Confirmation of ice-free window availability for the time of transit: Analysis of Historical Data Estimate of invasion of first year, second year or multi-year ice into the ice-free transportation window due to currents and winds Ongoing observations on area ice dynamics
6. Quantitative risk analysis of a transit around Point Barrow in specific year 7. Probabilistic analysis of a successful transit based on best estimates of Monte Carlo simulation 8. Precise planning of the voyage 9. Real time observation (any type of ice management) 10. Back-up Planning 3
“Inside Passage” (Depth less than 10 m) Voyages Around Point Barrow Started in 19th Century for whale hunt Early 20th Century to 1950’s very few transits 1950’s DEW Line Construction Activities along the Alaskan and Canadian Beaufort Shorelines 1958-1968 successful voyages made by Crowley each year Starting in 1968 with oil discoveries in Prudhoe Bay and for almost 50 year now successful sealifts accomplished on a yearly basis 4
“Inside Passage” (Depth less than 10 m) Volumes of Cargo Delivered Alaskan DEW Line Construction (1958-1983) Crowley used 280 Tugs and 250 barges Tonnage almost 2,300,000 tonnes
Oil and Gas Equipment to Prudhoe Bay (1968-1983) Crowley used 240 Tugs and 260 barges Tonnage roughly 1,000,000 tonnes
ATL move of 4 Tarsiut caissons from Vancouver to Canadian Beaufort (August of 1981) ATL dry tow of Esso’s CRI from Wainwright to Tuk (August of 1982) Crowley move of Northstar Modules for BP in 20012002 (largest module of 3,500 tons) … and many more 5
Deeper Water Passage (over 10 meters depth)
Initial mobilizations of SSDC, CIDS, Molikpaq Platforms Multiple SSDC/Mat tows out and back into the Beaufort Sea. Tow of “Canmar Explorer” in 1994
Mobilization of the Molikpaq and CIDS (“Orlan”) Platforms to Sakhalin Island Offshore 6
Self-Propelled Operation to Enter the Beaufort Sea
Big Lift 2001 Happy-R Vessel transported 3 small barges to Tuk
No icebreaking assistance was provided 7
1975 !!
1975 – inside passage or nearshore passage did not open 8
1975 !!
1975 - heavy ice conditions delayed the entry by almost 2 months
9
1975 !!
1975 – not all planned 155,000 tonnes tonnage made through 10
1975 !!
REASONS: Late break-up, Summer Ice Intrusions, and early freeze-up 11
Situations Similar to 2003 years
A wedge of heavy ice temporarily block the route at the level of Barter Island
12
Shallow Water “Inside” Passage vs. Deeper Water Passage OFFSHORE PACK
Arctic Ocean
Point Barrow
Chukchi Sea 2 -3 nm
SHEAR ZONE ICE SHORE FAST ICE
Beaufort Sea
1- several nm (1.5-2 m thick)
20 meter 10 meter 13
Shallow Water “Inside” Passage vs. Deeper Water Passage
NOAA scene showing fast ice, First-year ice and old pack ice.
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, 29 December 1987; Yukon and NWT. 14
Marine Equipment Selection and Cargo Configuration
CARGO COG - ? WEIGHT - ?
DRAFT 7' UKC Vessel Blue Marlin Black Marlin Mighty Servant 1 Mighty Servant 3
Max Draft, DWT, m 1000 tons 10.3 78 10.11 57 8.77 40 9.06 29
UKC, m
Depth, m
2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
12.4 12.21 10.87 11.16
15
Icebreakers Support Inside Passage
Deeper Passage
16
Analysis of Historical Data U.S. National Ice Center weekly ice charts
17
Analysis of Historical Data Archived satellite data High frequency of coverage and low cost of acquisition
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, 29 December 1987; Yukon and NWT. 18
Analysis of Historical Data Archived satellite data High frequency of coverage and low cost of acquisition
NOAA weather satellite scene 30 June 2005
19
Analysis of Historical Data Leads in ice Data extracted from weather satellite images. (MMS, 2005)
20
Analysis of Historical Data
Zones used in extracting lead data from satellite images (MMS, 2005).
21
Probability of Occurrence Determination of the ice parameters of interest affecting potential transit corridors. •Multi-year ice •Second-year ice •First-year ice •Open water •Extreme ice features
22
Probability of Occurrence
Multi-year hummock field
Ice island fragments 23
Probability of Occurrence Example of open water along the Alaskan coast east of Point Barrow, i.e. outside the Point Barrow transit zone but along a possible corridor to a destination site.
© 2001 CSA/ASC 24
Shear Zone Boundary
Shear of gyre against landfast ice creates significant ridges east of Point Barrow. (map Mahoney et al., 2005)
25
Shear Zone Boundary Recent literature (POAC 05 and MMS). Probability of landfast ice occurrence between October and July (Mahoney et al., 2005).
26
Forecasting Ice Dynamics Requirements: •Advance development and testing of regional/local forecast mechanism. •Good data on area marine forces. •Accurate regional weather forecasts. •Consistent and frequent feedback from field.
27
Forecasting Ice Dynamics
28
Forecasting Ice Dynamics
Example of forecast local ice drift superimposed on same-day satellite picture.
29
Forecasting Ice Dynamics
Example of tabular ice forecast report form
30
Probabilistic Analysis Simulation of transits using Monte Carlo or other models. Requires input data set including following parameters:
•Historical ice concentration •Historical level ice thickness •Historical ridge/hummock/rubble data
•Index of distances covered by various combinations of ice parameters.
31
Schedule Risk Analysis General Approaches Data and information. Probabilistic model constructed for activity time and cost variations. Main stakeholders interviewed. Principal schedule scenarios identified and modelled as Cases. Case schedule and cost probability distributions. Project composite schedule and cost probability distributions.
32
Risk Analysis
CASES CASE 1 General
Routine delays without qualitative changes in schedule.
CASE 2 Barrow Closed
Sealift impossible resulting in at least one year project delay.
CASE 3 Gravel Permit Delay
CASE 4 Winter Activity Delayed
Pad construction delayed one year.
Reduction of winter construction window duration. 33
Cumulative Distribution for Total Cost – Case 1
34
Cumulative Distribution for Expected Total Cost
35
Risk Analysis SUMMARY
Planned Cost (US $MM)
Total Prob. Cost (US $MM) Mean
Weight
1 – General
651.90
676.06
0.545
2 – Barrow Closed
651.90
676.06
0.030
3 – Gravel Permit Delay
651.90
706.06
0.300
4 – Winter Activity Delays
651.90
686.28
0.125
Case
Total Expected Cost (US $MM) – Probability Mean
686.42 36
Choosing the Optima Time of transit: Period of the year, to maximize mobilization costs.
Final routeing: Dependent on master’s judgement and developing ice and weather conditions.
37
Real Time Monitoring
© 2001 CSA/ASC 38
Real Time Monitoring •High quality daily weather reports. •High quality weather forecasts •Daily satellite coverage, cloud permitting. •Pre-arranged radar satellite coverage for difficult transit legs.
39
Closing
Utilize results of work done in the past
Changes in environment and technology call for revisiting of the transit issues To achieve best results the work should be organized and implemented in a structured manner Use of local and current knowledge
40
Sources of Data and Information
SNAME Arctic Section Archives Canatec Associates International Ltd. Bercha Group Thank You and Merry Christmas !! 41
