2009 Q2 Retail Market Report.indd
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C O L L I E R S I N T E R N AT I O N A L
R E TA I L
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S E C O N D Q U A RT E R
S A S K ATO O N
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2009
Healthy Retail Sales Growth in Saskatoon for 2009 Saskatchewan posted another year of strong retail sales growth in 2008. According to the latest Conference Board of Canada report, Saskatoon and Regina continue to lead the country in year over year retail sales growth at 11% and 9.5% respectively. Despite the current global conditions, the forecast for retail growth in Saskatchewan for 2009 remains healthy at 3.8% with the national level forecasted at 1.6%.
MARKET INDICATORS 2008 Q4
2009 Q2
VACANCY RATE RENTAL RATES
With strong performance in the retail sector and continued consumer demand, retail vacancy rates in Saskatoon continue to decline. The current overall vacancy rate in Saskatoon is 2.4%, slightly lower than the 2.83% and 3.74% in the second quarter of 2008 and 2007, respectively. Retail vacancy is expected to remain tight in 2009 for existing retail space and there are limited vacancies coming available in the downtown core. Almost all of the new retail construction is pre-leased in newer neighborhoods such as Stonebridge, University Heights Suburban Centre (S.C.), and Lakewood S.C.
NET SUPPLY
2007
www.colliers.com/saskatoon
H ali fax
al M on tr e
o
tta wa O
eg ip i nn 2008
To ro nt
a gin W
Re
oo n
Sa sk at
Vi
• Despite an increase in rental rates, Saskatoon continues to have one of the lowest rental rates across Canada, with top retail street and premium locations at
16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Ca lga ry
• Current overall vacancy rate in Saskatoon is 2.4%, which is a decrease from 2.83% and 3.74% in Q2 2008 and 2007 respectively.
FIG. 1 - CANADIAN RETAIL SALES GROWTH (%)
Va nc ou ve r Ed m on to n
• Saskatchewan tops national retail sales growth in 2008 at 11.2% and is forecasted to lead the nation in 2009. Nationally the retail sales growth is 4%.
ct or ia
HIGHLIGHTS
With retail space continuing to be in high demand and in shor t supply along with increased costs for new construction; retailers have experienced significant rental increases in both new leases and in lease renewals. Despite the recent rental increases, rental rates in Saskatoon remain competitively low compared to other cities across the nation. Net rental rates for the top retail areas in Saskatoon are just under $30.00 P.S.F., while new retail developments, such as Stonebridge Neighborhood, University Heights S.C. and Lakewood S.C., have seen rental rates in the $24.00 to $30.00 P.S.F. range. X
2009f
Our Knowledge is your Property ®
The Knowledge Report | Second Quarter | 2009 | Saskatoon
FIG. 2 - SASKATOON RETAIL RENTAL RATE RANGE 2009
Retail real estate transaction activities were strong in 2008, as there were 11 sales over $1 million. Most notable sales were the sale of Confederation Mall and the River City Centre for just over $28 million and $27 million respectively. Stonebridge Center was also sold as part of a REIT sale at just over $67.5 million.
$30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00
Lower Net Rental Rate p.s.f.
Forecast
Su th er la nd
oa dw ay Br
tr ee t
Id yl w yl d
22 nd
ir c C
51 st S
St re et
D ri ve le
D ow nt ow n
8t h
St re et
$-
Retail sales growth in Saskatoon is expected to out pace most, if not all, Canadian cities. As a result, retail space is expected to remain in high demand for 2009. To meet the growing retail demand, new retail developments are growing in all directions in Saskatoon, with the majority pre-leased to high quality tenants. Current construction is ongoing in Stonebridge in the city’s South, the latest announced additions include Ashley Furniture, HomeSense, Co-op gas bar, Sheraton Four Points Hotel, World Gym and Starbucks. Other new retail developments include the recently city tendered 23 acres of urban residential/retail development at University Heights in the city’s North East. All indications are that there is a strong demand in what is being called The University Heights Square, with a proposed total of 240,000 sq. ft. of retail space planned for 2010. Lakewood Suburban Centre, in the South East, continues to grow to service the new Rosewood neighborhood. A new Shopping Centre permit was recently issued for WalMart in Blairmore. Construction has commenced and when complete, the total development will cover approximately 38 acres.
Upper Net Rental Rate p.s.f.
FIG. 3 - SASKATOON RETAIL VACANCY RATES 2009 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 -
1.27% 2.75% 1.75% 5.89%
5.21%
2.61%
0.21%
Vacant Space
d Su
th
er
lan
dw ay
Id
Br oa
ylw
51 st St re e
t
yld
t 22 nd St re e
ive Dr rcl e Ci
8t hS tre e
t
Do wn to wn
0.00%
Occupied Space
FIG. 4 - CANADIAN RETAIL RATES P.S.F. 2008 - 2009 $350.00
$300
$300.00
$260
$250.00
$210
$200.00
2008
$100
$150.00
2009
Colliers McClocklin Real Estate Corp. has prepared this report for general information purposes only. Information contained herein has been obtained from resources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof.
$78
$100.00
$37
$50.00
$45
$39
$27 $15 $26
lifa
x
l Ha
on tre a
ta wa
M
Ot
To ro nt o
g pe ni W in
a gi n Re
ar y Sa sk at oo n
Ca lg
on to n
Ed m
Va n
co u
ve r
ia
$Vic to r
Sq.ft. (Thousand)
2009
FIG. 4 - RETAIL SALES ACTIVITY - 2008
CONTACT INFO
PROPERTY
SALES DATE
SALE PRICE
SIZE SQ. FT.
1202/1212 Central Avenue
January 2008
$ 4,560,000
13,014
April 2008
$ 2,700,000
34,800
Grand Central Plaza University Heights Retail Centre
May 2008
$ 7,200,000
30,150
Stonebridge Centre
June 2008
$67,504,426
338,014
River City Centre
June 2008
$27,200,000
160,456
105 Avenue F South (Giant Tiger)
July 2008
$ 2,922,000
250,000
September 2008
$ 3,100,000
29,820
October 2008
$28,100,000
328,808
Eastview Shopping Centre Confederation Mall
2
COLLIERS McCLOCKLIN REAL ESTATE CORP.
COLLIERS McCLOCKLIN REAL ESTATE CORP. 728 Spadina Crescent East Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada S7K 4H7 Tel: 306-664-4433 Fax: 306-664-1068 Jimmy Cheung Research Associate Heddy Trapler Marketing Associate
Our Knowledge is your Property ®
306.664.4433
C O L L I E R S I N T E R N AT I O N A L
R E TA I L
|
S E C O N D Q U A RT E R
S A S K ATO O N
|
2009
Healthy Retail Sales Growth in Saskatoon for 2009 Saskatchewan posted another year of strong retail sales growth in 2008. According to the latest Conference Board of Canada report, Saskatoon and Regina continue to lead the country in year over year retail sales growth at 11% and 9.5% respectively. Despite the current global conditions, the forecast for retail growth in Saskatchewan for 2009 remains healthy at 3.8% with the national level forecasted at 1.6%.
MARKET INDICATORS 2008 Q4
2009 Q2
VACANCY RATE RENTAL RATES
With strong performance in the retail sector and continued consumer demand, retail vacancy rates in Saskatoon continue to decline. The current overall vacancy rate in Saskatoon is 2.4%, slightly lower than the 2.83% and 3.74% in the second quarter of 2008 and 2007, respectively. Retail vacancy is expected to remain tight in 2009 for existing retail space and there are limited vacancies coming available in the downtown core. Almost all of the new retail construction is pre-leased in newer neighborhoods such as Stonebridge, University Heights Suburban Centre (S.C.), and Lakewood S.C.
NET SUPPLY
2007
www.colliers.com/saskatoon
H ali fax
al M on tr e
o
tta wa O
eg ip i nn 2008
To ro nt
a gin W
Re
oo n
Sa sk at
Vi
• Despite an increase in rental rates, Saskatoon continues to have one of the lowest rental rates across Canada, with top retail street and premium locations at
16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Ca lga ry
• Current overall vacancy rate in Saskatoon is 2.4%, which is a decrease from 2.83% and 3.74% in Q2 2008 and 2007 respectively.
FIG. 1 - CANADIAN RETAIL SALES GROWTH (%)
Va nc ou ve r Ed m on to n
• Saskatchewan tops national retail sales growth in 2008 at 11.2% and is forecasted to lead the nation in 2009. Nationally the retail sales growth is 4%.
ct or ia
HIGHLIGHTS
With retail space continuing to be in high demand and in shor t supply along with increased costs for new construction; retailers have experienced significant rental increases in both new leases and in lease renewals. Despite the recent rental increases, rental rates in Saskatoon remain competitively low compared to other cities across the nation. Net rental rates for the top retail areas in Saskatoon are just under $30.00 P.S.F., while new retail developments, such as Stonebridge Neighborhood, University Heights S.C. and Lakewood S.C., have seen rental rates in the $24.00 to $30.00 P.S.F. range. X
2009f
Our Knowledge is your Property ®
The Knowledge Report | Second Quarter | 2009 | Saskatoon
FIG. 2 - SASKATOON RETAIL RENTAL RATE RANGE 2009
Retail real estate transaction activities were strong in 2008, as there were 11 sales over $1 million. Most notable sales were the sale of Confederation Mall and the River City Centre for just over $28 million and $27 million respectively. Stonebridge Center was also sold as part of a REIT sale at just over $67.5 million.
$30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00
Lower Net Rental Rate p.s.f.
Forecast
Su th er la nd
oa dw ay Br
tr ee t
Id yl w yl d
22 nd
ir c C
51 st S
St re et
D ri ve le
D ow nt ow n
8t h
St re et
$-
Retail sales growth in Saskatoon is expected to out pace most, if not all, Canadian cities. As a result, retail space is expected to remain in high demand for 2009. To meet the growing retail demand, new retail developments are growing in all directions in Saskatoon, with the majority pre-leased to high quality tenants. Current construction is ongoing in Stonebridge in the city’s South, the latest announced additions include Ashley Furniture, HomeSense, Co-op gas bar, Sheraton Four Points Hotel, World Gym and Starbucks. Other new retail developments include the recently city tendered 23 acres of urban residential/retail development at University Heights in the city’s North East. All indications are that there is a strong demand in what is being called The University Heights Square, with a proposed total of 240,000 sq. ft. of retail space planned for 2010. Lakewood Suburban Centre, in the South East, continues to grow to service the new Rosewood neighborhood. A new Shopping Centre permit was recently issued for WalMart in Blairmore. Construction has commenced and when complete, the total development will cover approximately 38 acres.
Upper Net Rental Rate p.s.f.
FIG. 3 - SASKATOON RETAIL VACANCY RATES 2009 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 -
1.27% 2.75% 1.75% 5.89%
5.21%
2.61%
0.21%
Vacant Space
d Su
th
er
lan
dw ay
Id
Br oa
ylw
51 st St re e
t
yld
t 22 nd St re e
ive Dr rcl e Ci
8t hS tre e
t
Do wn to wn
0.00%
Occupied Space
FIG. 4 - CANADIAN RETAIL RATES P.S.F. 2008 - 2009 $350.00
$300
$300.00
$260
$250.00
$210
$200.00
2008
$100
$150.00
2009
Colliers McClocklin Real Estate Corp. has prepared this report for general information purposes only. Information contained herein has been obtained from resources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof.
$78
$100.00
$37
$50.00
$45
$39
$27 $15 $26
lifa
x
l Ha
on tre a
ta wa
M
Ot
To ro nt o
g pe ni W in
a gi n Re
ar y Sa sk at oo n
Ca lg
on to n
Ed m
Va n
co u
ve r
ia
$Vic to r
Sq.ft. (Thousand)
2009
FIG. 4 - RETAIL SALES ACTIVITY - 2008
CONTACT INFO
PROPERTY
SALES DATE
SALE PRICE
SIZE SQ. FT.
1202/1212 Central Avenue
January 2008
$ 4,560,000
13,014
April 2008
$ 2,700,000
34,800
Grand Central Plaza University Heights Retail Centre
May 2008
$ 7,200,000
30,150
Stonebridge Centre
June 2008
$67,504,426
338,014
River City Centre
June 2008
$27,200,000
160,456
105 Avenue F South (Giant Tiger)
July 2008
$ 2,922,000
250,000
September 2008
$ 3,100,000
29,820
October 2008
$28,100,000
328,808
Eastview Shopping Centre Confederation Mall
2
COLLIERS McCLOCKLIN REAL ESTATE CORP.
COLLIERS McCLOCKLIN REAL ESTATE CORP. 728 Spadina Crescent East Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada S7K 4H7 Tel: 306-664-4433 Fax: 306-664-1068 Jimmy Cheung Research Associate Heddy Trapler Marketing Associate
Our Knowledge is your Property ®
306.664.4433
