Pruksa Real Estate Under review (16E TP Bt34.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt25.50
Property Development February 23, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
2015 earnings beat expectation; restructuring to be a holding company Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
3.267
3.454
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
4.7%
3.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
PS.BK/PS TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,231.07
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
57.00/1,591.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
40.00/10.11
52 week High / Low (Bt)
33.75/22.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
4,519.00 1.98
Estimated free float (%)
30.54
Beta
0.92
URL
www.pruksa.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Level 3A (Established)
Rating under review PS’s earnings performance was well above our forecast and the 2H15 DPS offers an attractive yield at 4.9%. However, our rating for PS is under review until we get more information in the analyst meeting on Feb 23 about the plan to transform PS into a holding company. 4Q15 net profit rose 63.0% YoY and 97.2% QoQ PS reported 4Q15 core profit at Bt3.1bn (+63.0% YoY, +97.2% QoQ), 41% above our forecast. This was mainly due to higher‐than‐expected transfers of Bt17.8bn (+43.8% YoY, +60.1% QoQ), 26% above our estimate, driven by both low‐rise and high‐rise transfers. 2015 net profit rose 15.4% YoY backed by heavy transfers PS's 2015 net earnings amounted to Bt7.68bn (+15.4% YoY), 13% above our estimate. Transfer revenues were Bt51.2bn (+19.8% YoY), 7.8% higher than expected. Gains were seen in all product segments. The average GPM stood at 33.7%, decreasing from 36.7% in 2014 due to the discount price strategy to stimulate sales and transfers. SG&A expenses/revenue was 15.0%, down from 16.6% in 2014 due to a rise in transfers. Announced 2H15 DPS at Bt1.25, implying a 4.9% dividend yield PS announced its 2H15 DPS at Bt1.25, implying a dividend yield of 4.9%. It will go XD on March 9 and the dividend will be paid on May 18, 2016. Restructuring the firm to be a holding company PS plans to establish a holding company that will be incorporated into a public limited company. It will make a tender offer for all of PS’s securities at the swap ratio of 1:1 (PS: the holding company). After the tender is complete, the holding company will become the major shareholder in PS and its securities will be listed on the SET in place of PS, which will be delisted from the SET at the same time. Restructuring to allow for expansion to other businesses with limited risk to its core business Being a holding company will give the company more flexibility to expand businesses with partners possessing expertise in particular areas. Moreover, it will limit the company’s risk from any future business transactions in terms of the impact to the core business, i.e., residential properties for sale. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btm) Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 38,848 5,802 2.61
2014 42,781 6,655 2.99
2015 51,240 7,680 3.44
2016E 51,511 7,672 3.42
48.2
14.5
15.2
(0.5)
4.6
2.61
2.99
3.44
3.42
3.58
48.2
14.5
15.2
(0.5)
4.6
0.85 11.22 2013 9.8 9.8 9.5 2.3 3.3 25.8 45.7
1.00 13.34 2014 8.5 8.5 8.5 1.9 3.9 24.4 42.9
1.75 15.34 2015 7.4 7.4 7.4 1.7 6.9 24.0 36.9
1.60 16.90 2016E 7.4 7.4 7.3 1.5 6.3 21.3 33.4
1.70 18.87 2017E 7.1 7.1 6.8 1.4 6.7 20.1 30.9
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 52,877 8,050 3.58
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) FY Ended 31 Dec 4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY
% QoQ
2014
2015
% YoY
Revenue from project sales Total revenue Gross profit
12,366 12,366 4,532
11,106 11,106 3,754
17,776 17,776 6,120
43.8 43.8 35.0
60.1 60.1 63.0
42,781 42,781 15,686
51,240 51,240 17,256
19.8 19.8 10.0
EBITDA
2,613
2,146
3,916
49.9
82.5
9,166
10,136
10.6
Interest expense
(89)
(80)
(93)
4.8
16.4
(376)
(328)
(12.8)
Other income
120
30
109
(9.2)
264.7
246
198
(19.4)
Income tax
(526)
(389)
(664)
26.2
70.7
(1,815)
(1,798)
(0.9)
Net profit (loss)
1,881
1,555
3,066
63.0
97.2
6,655
7,680
15.4
Core net profit (loss)
1,881
1,555
3,066
63.0
97.2
6,655
7,680
15.4
Reported EPS (THB)
0.84
0.70
1.37
62.7
97.2
2.99
3.44
15.2
Core EPS (THB)
0.84
0.70
1.37
62.7
97.2
2.99
3.44
15.2
Gross margin – project sales (%)
36.7
33.8
34.4
36.7
33.7
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
36.7
33.8
34.4
36.7
33.7
EBITDA margin (%)
21.1
19.3
22.0
21.4
19.8
Net margin (%)
15.2
14.0
17.2
15.6
15.0
Current ratio (x)
4.0
3.2
3.7
4.0
3.7
Interest coverage (x)
15.6
25.3
40.9
23.5
29.9
Debt / equity (x)
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.1
0.9
BVPS (Bt)
13.34
13.99
15.34
13.34
15.34
ROE (%)
23.1
21.0
24.0
24.4
24.0
Source: PS, KT ZMICO Research
Restructuring the firm to be a holding company PS plans to establish a holding company that will be incorporated into a public limited company. It will make a tender offer for all of PS’s securities at the swap ratio of 1:1 (PS: the holding company) based on the market price of PS’s shares on the swap date. The tender offer period is not less than 25 business days and not exceeding 45 business days (around Sep to Oct‐16). After the tender is complete, the holding company will become the major shareholder in PS and its securities will be listed on the SET in place of PS, which will be delisted from the SET at the same time. If the holding company obtains 100% of the paid‐up shares in PS, its shareholding structure will be the same as the original structure of PS. However, if the holding company acquires less than 100% of the paid‐up shares in PS, it will realize the consolidated financial position and performance of PS in proportion to the shares acquired. Restructuring to allow for expansion to other businesses with limited risk to its core business Being a holding company will facilitate the company with respect to i) allowing for the flexibility to expand the business and the formation of strategic alliances with partners who have expertise in particular areas; ii) limiting and managing the risk of each business more effectively; furthermore, it will help the company to limit the risk from any future business transaction in terms of the impact to residential sales, which is the current core business; and iii) enabling the company to create a clear separation between business lines by operating each business under a different legal entity. This will help to increase management efficiency and make the organization more flexible. REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 2: The Company’s restructuring plan
Source: PS
Figure 3: The holding company’s structure
Source: PS
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.