2050
LCS China
Kejun JIANG [email protected] Energy Research Institute, China
1
ERI, China
2
Content
• • • • •
Scenarios: how to reach enhanced low carbon scenario Cost/benefit Co-benefit Technology roadmap Policy roadmap
3
GDP 3000000 2500000
亿元
2000000
第三产业增加值 第二产业增加值 第一产业增加值
1500000 1000000 500000 0 2005
2010
2020 2030 年份
2040
2050
4
Investment by industrial sectors 建筑业
工业分部门投资
自来水的生产和供应业 煤气的生产和供应业 蒸汽热水生产供应业
180000
电力生产供应业 其他工业 仪器仪表文化办公用机械
160000
电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业 交通运输设备制造业
140000
普通机械、专用设备制造业 金属制品业 有色金属
120000
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业
亿元
非金属矿物制品业
100000
橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业 化学纤维制造业 医药制造业
80000
化学原料及制品制造业 炼焦业
60000
石油加工 印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业 造纸及纸制品业
40000
木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业 服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造 纺织业
20000
烟草加工业 食品饮料加工、制造业
0 2005
非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业
2010
2020
2030 年份
2040
2050
有色金属矿采选业 黑色金属矿采选业 天然气开采业 石油 煤炭采选业 农业
5
Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC Unit Steel Million Cement Million Million Glass cases Copper Million Ammonia Million Ethylene Million Soda Ash Million Casutic Million Paper Million FertilizerMillion Aluminum Million Paper Million Calcium carbide Million
ton ton
ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton
2005 355 1060
2020 610 1600
2030 570 1600
2040 440 1200
2050 360 900
399
650
690
670
580
2.6 8.51 5.1 14.67 12.64 62.05 52.2 7.56 46.3 8.5
7 16 7.2 23 24 110 61 34 50 10
7 16 7 24.5 25 115 61 36 50 8
6.5 15 6.5 23.5 25 120 61 36 50 7
4.6 12 5.5 22 24 120 61 33 45 4 6
Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario Unit Steel Cement Glass
Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/Weight Cases
Brick Ammonia Ethylene Soda Ash Casutic Calcium carbide Copper Aluminum Paper Electricity fossil fuel
Kgce/万块 Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/t kWh/t Kgce/t Gce/kWh
2005 760 132
2020 650 101
24
18
685 1645 1092 340 1410 1482 1273 14320 1047 350
466 1328 796 310 990 1304 1063 12870 840 305
2030 2040 564 554 86 81 14.5 13.8 433 1189 713 290 890 1215 931 12170 761 287
421 1141 693 284 868 1201 877 11923 721 274
2050 545 77 13.1 408 1096 672 279 851 1193 827 11877 686 264
7
2050年的低碳住宅
太阳能利用
舒适和节能 生态生活教育
光伏电池 (25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池， 转换效率接近30%
减少10-20% 能源需求
屋顶植被 高效照明 【如 LED照明】
太阳热利用 普及率: 20-60%
减少50%照明需求， 普及率 100%
（目前 6%）
能源检测系统
高效绝热
（家用电器)
减少 60% 采暖需求, 普及率70%
超高效空调
燃料电池
COP =8, 普及率 100%
待机电源耗电 降低1/3 ， 普及率100%
热泵采暖
普及率 0-20%
COP＝5 普及率 30-70%
向公众提供经济和环境 信息促使大家成为 低碳消费
高效家用电器 减少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式 8
5
日本领跑者项目: 提高能源效率 - “领跑者项目已经实现 -刺激竞争和革新, -促进现有节能技术普及 -增加经济竞争力 -创造了“双赢”局面，进入良性循环. 图 冰箱效率 651.3
941.6
331.5
Overall electricity consumption per refrigerator (kWh) Annual electricity consumption per volume (kWh/L)
Internal cubic volume (L)
1981
1991
2001
(Source) JEMA 9(2002)
Transport, Low carbon scenario
Family car ownership, per 100HH Family car annual travel distance, km Average engin size of family cars, litter Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % Share of Biofuel, % Share of electric car, % Share of fuel cell car, %
Urban Rural
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
3.37 0.08 9500 1.7 9.2 0.011 1.10% 0% 0%
14 0.2 9500 1.6 8.9 0.016 1.30% 0.12% 0%
36 8 9300 1.6 7.1 0.025 4.1% 3.2% 0.80%
65 38 8635 1.6 5.9 0.046 7.70% 6.80% 1.60%
77 70 8300 1.5 4.8 0.1 12% 12.5% 4.70%
78 90 7480 1.4 4.1 0.21 13% 19.8% 7.90%
10
No. 1
28 key technologies in the enhanced low carbon scenario in China
Sector Industry technology
2
3
4
Transport
5 6 7 8 9
Building
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Power generation
Technology High efficiency equipment
Description energy High efficiency furnace, kiln, waste heat recovery system, high efficiency process technologies, advanced electric motor New manufacture process technology for cement and steel CCS In cement, steel making, refinery, ethylene manufacture Super high efficiency Advanced diesel hybrid diesel vehicle engine Electric car Fuel cell car High efficiency 30% higher energy aircraft efficiency Bio-fuel aircraft Super high efficiency With COP>7 air-conditioner LED lighting In house renewable Solar PV/Wind/Solar hot energy system water and space heating Heat pumps High isolation building High efficiency electric appliance IGCC/PolyWith efficiency above 55% Generation IGCC/Fuel cell With efficiency above 60% On shore Wind Off shore wind
Note Nearly market
in
Mature Mature Mature before 2030
Mature Mature before 2020
Solar PV Solar Thermal th
4 Generation Nuclear Advanced NGCC With efficiency above 65% Biomass IGCC CCS in power generation Alternative fuels Second generation bio-ethanol Bio-diesel Vehicles, ships, vessels Grid Smart grid Circulating Recycle, reuse, tecnologies reducing material use
11
Technology Roadmap
Ultra performance air-conditioni ng Popularization Rate: 100%
Advanced Solar Water heater/ heating Popularization Rate: 45%, of all the suitable construction
12
13
Power Capacity by technologies in China, low energy scenario 250000
Hydro Nuclear Wind off shore Wind on shore Biomass IGCC Biomass Direct
200000
Solar Thermal Solar PV
10MW
150000
Oil NGCC 100000
N.Gas PFBC IGCC-Fuel Cell IGCC-68%
50000
0 2000
IGCC-20% US-Critical 2005
2010
2020 Year
2030
2040
2050
Super Critical Large Coal Unit Samll Coal
14
CCS future 120 100 IGCC-Fuel Cell IGCC US-Critical Super Critical Large Coal Unit Samll Coal
%
80 60 40 20 0 2000
2005
2010
2020 Year
2030
2040
2050
15
CCS •CCS is crucial for China for deep cut on CO2 •By 2050, there I still more than 2billion ton coal use in China •CCS is long-term technology, for negative emission • Cost: electricity price increase 0.15-0.25yuan/kWh，by 2030 average electricity price increase 0.03yuan/kWh, 0.15yuan/kWh by 2050. • Investment for CCS：3000yuan-5600yuan/kW •IGCC+CCS efficiency loss could go down to 6% •IGCC efficiency：48% for Greengen in 2011，55% by 55% to 58%
Case study for a 900MW IGCC unit with CCS • Investment cost for IGCC: 2020 7500yuan/kW, 2030 6500yuan/kW •CCS: 2020 4500yuan/kW, 2030 3200yuan/kW •Capture rate: 2020 80%, 2030 90% •Transport distance: 80km •Transport cost: 2020 20yuan/t-CO2, 2030 10yua/t-CO2 •Cost for storage: 2020 15yuan/t-Co2, 2030 7yuan/t-CO2 •Interest rate: 8% •Increased cost: 2020 0.28yuan/kWh, 2030: 0.19yuan/kWh
17 17
Investment in Energy Industry in China
Energy Expenditures in China
14000
300000
10^8Yuan
10000 8000
BaU
250000
HLC
200000
6000
HELC
4000
LLC
10^8Yuan
12000
BaU
150000
HLC
100000
2000
50000
0
0
HELC 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Year
GDP Loss, %
10^8 Yuan
Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC 6.00%
20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
2010
2020 2030 2040
2050
5.00% 650ppm
4.00%
550ppm
3.00%
450ppm
2.00%
Per Capita
1.00%
Industry
Transport
Building
Total
Carbon Intensity
0.00%
Year -1.00%
2010
2020
2030
2050
2075
2100
18
19
Fixed Unit Ivestment 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2050
3000
yuan/kW
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 International International IGCC IGCC-Fuel Cell
China IGCC
China SC
China USC
20
SO2 Emission 30 25
MtSO2
20 BaU
15
LC 10
ELC
5 0
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
21
1000ton
Black Carbon Emission in China 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
BaU LowCarbon
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
22
NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario 16.0 14.0
12.0 Mt
10.0 8.0
Other
6.0
Power generation
4.0 2.0
0.0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
23
PM2.5 Emission 6.0 5.0
Mton
4.0 3.0
Other
2.0
Power generation
1.0
0.0 2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
24
Mercury Emission 600.0 500.0
ton
400.0 300.0
Other
200.0
Power generation
100.0
0.0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
25
A Snapshot of Selected China Energy Options Today: Climate and Energy Security Impacts and Tradeoffs in 2025 Bubble size corresponds to incremental energy provided or avoided in 2025. The reference point is the “business as usual” mix in 2025. The horizontal axis includes sustainability as well as traditional aspects of sufficiency, reliability, and affordability. The vertical axis illustrates lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity. Bubble placements are based on quantitative analysis and ERI expert judgment.
Industry Industry Efficiency Efficiency
Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by comparing low energy scenario and policy BaU Nuclear Nuclear Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand barrels of oil per day) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand Liquefied barrels of oil per day) by comparing policy BaU scenario Natural Gas (LNG) and BaU Clean Coal Imports
Reduce Energy Security For specific details on the assumptions underlying the options on this chart, go to www.wri.org/usenergyoptions
Building Efficiency
Positive Climate Characteristics
Corn Ethanol
Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standard Solar PV
Wind
Biodiesel
Ultra-Super Critical
(IGCC) with CO2 Capture
Hydro Hydro
Plug-In Hybrids
CO2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery
Oil Imports
Business As Usual In 2025
Gas-to-Liquids
Biomass Power Cellulosic Ethanol
Increase Energy Security
Expanded Domestic Oil Production Coal-to-Liquids (with carbon capture)
Coal-to-Liquids (no carbon capture)
Revised 7/10/2008
Negative Climate Characteristics
26
Water consumption and greenhouse gas emission of energy generation technologies
Hydro (dam)
Water consumption (m 3 /MWh)
7
Geothermal
500,000 MWh/yr
This size = 100,000 MWh/yr
1,000,000 MWh/yr
5
Close-loop solar thermal
Close-loop nuclear 3
Close-loop USC with CCS
Close-loop SC with CCS Close-loop SC
Open-loop nuclear
1
Open-loop IGCC
Open-loop SC with CCS
Close-loop IGCC with CCS Open-loop IGCC with CCS Open-loop USC with CCS
Close-loop USC Close-loop NGCC Close-loop NGCC with CCS
Dry SC with CCS
Open-loop NGCC with CCS
Open-loop NGCC
Dry solar thermal
-350
-150
Wind (run-of-river) Hydro 50 -1
Energy efficiency for buildings
Top 1000 companies energy efficiency program
Dry USC with CCS Solar PV
Dry NGCC with CCS 250
450
Close-loop subcritical
Close-loop IGCC
Open-loop subcritical
Open-loop USC
Dry NGCC 650
Greenhouse gas emission (Kg CO2 /MWh)
850
1050
Dry USC Open-loop SC Dry SC
-3
Dry subcritical
Policy roadmap: Super high efficiency air conditioner • Efficiency Standard: COP, MEPS • Government Planning • Subsidy
Start COP 9.0 8.0 7.0
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
1.0 0.0 2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
28
29
How to go to LCS in China
• Short term policy: fully implementation of energy conservation, renewable energy, nuclear development policies • Long-term: fully low carbon development strategy • There will be change in next few years: Copenhagen + 5, and dramatic change at Copenhagen + 10 • Political roadmap
30
Kejun JIANG [email protected] Energy Research Institute, China
1
ERI, China
2
Content
• • • • •
Scenarios: how to reach enhanced low carbon scenario Cost/benefit Co-benefit Technology roadmap Policy roadmap
3
GDP 3000000 2500000
亿元
2000000
第三产业增加值 第二产业增加值 第一产业增加值
1500000 1000000 500000 0 2005
2010
2020 2030 年份
2040
2050
4
Investment by industrial sectors 建筑业
工业分部门投资
自来水的生产和供应业 煤气的生产和供应业 蒸汽热水生产供应业
180000
电力生产供应业 其他工业 仪器仪表文化办公用机械
160000
电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业 交通运输设备制造业
140000
普通机械、专用设备制造业 金属制品业 有色金属
120000
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业
亿元
非金属矿物制品业
100000
橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业 化学纤维制造业 医药制造业
80000
化学原料及制品制造业 炼焦业
60000
石油加工 印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业 造纸及纸制品业
40000
木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业 服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造 纺织业
20000
烟草加工业 食品饮料加工、制造业
0 2005
非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业
2010
2020
2030 年份
2040
2050
有色金属矿采选业 黑色金属矿采选业 天然气开采业 石油 煤炭采选业 农业
5
Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC Unit Steel Million Cement Million Million Glass cases Copper Million Ammonia Million Ethylene Million Soda Ash Million Casutic Million Paper Million FertilizerMillion Aluminum Million Paper Million Calcium carbide Million
ton ton
ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton
2005 355 1060
2020 610 1600
2030 570 1600
2040 440 1200
2050 360 900
399
650
690
670
580
2.6 8.51 5.1 14.67 12.64 62.05 52.2 7.56 46.3 8.5
7 16 7.2 23 24 110 61 34 50 10
7 16 7 24.5 25 115 61 36 50 8
6.5 15 6.5 23.5 25 120 61 36 50 7
4.6 12 5.5 22 24 120 61 33 45 4 6
Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario Unit Steel Cement Glass
Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/Weight Cases
Brick Ammonia Ethylene Soda Ash Casutic Calcium carbide Copper Aluminum Paper Electricity fossil fuel
Kgce/万块 Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/t kWh/t Kgce/t Gce/kWh
2005 760 132
2020 650 101
24
18
685 1645 1092 340 1410 1482 1273 14320 1047 350
466 1328 796 310 990 1304 1063 12870 840 305
2030 2040 564 554 86 81 14.5 13.8 433 1189 713 290 890 1215 931 12170 761 287
421 1141 693 284 868 1201 877 11923 721 274
2050 545 77 13.1 408 1096 672 279 851 1193 827 11877 686 264
7
2050年的低碳住宅
太阳能利用
舒适和节能 生态生活教育
光伏电池 (25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池， 转换效率接近30%
减少10-20% 能源需求
屋顶植被 高效照明 【如 LED照明】
太阳热利用 普及率: 20-60%
减少50%照明需求， 普及率 100%
（目前 6%）
能源检测系统
高效绝热
（家用电器)
减少 60% 采暖需求, 普及率70%
超高效空调
燃料电池
COP =8, 普及率 100%
待机电源耗电 降低1/3 ， 普及率100%
热泵采暖
普及率 0-20%
COP＝5 普及率 30-70%
向公众提供经济和环境 信息促使大家成为 低碳消费
高效家用电器 减少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式 8
5
日本领跑者项目: 提高能源效率 - “领跑者项目已经实现 -刺激竞争和革新, -促进现有节能技术普及 -增加经济竞争力 -创造了“双赢”局面，进入良性循环. 图 冰箱效率 651.3
941.6
331.5
Overall electricity consumption per refrigerator (kWh) Annual electricity consumption per volume (kWh/L)
Internal cubic volume (L)
1981
1991
2001
(Source) JEMA 9(2002)
Transport, Low carbon scenario
Family car ownership, per 100HH Family car annual travel distance, km Average engin size of family cars, litter Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % Share of Biofuel, % Share of electric car, % Share of fuel cell car, %
Urban Rural
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
3.37 0.08 9500 1.7 9.2 0.011 1.10% 0% 0%
14 0.2 9500 1.6 8.9 0.016 1.30% 0.12% 0%
36 8 9300 1.6 7.1 0.025 4.1% 3.2% 0.80%
65 38 8635 1.6 5.9 0.046 7.70% 6.80% 1.60%
77 70 8300 1.5 4.8 0.1 12% 12.5% 4.70%
78 90 7480 1.4 4.1 0.21 13% 19.8% 7.90%
10
No. 1
28 key technologies in the enhanced low carbon scenario in China
Sector Industry technology
2
3
4
Transport
5 6 7 8 9
Building
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Power generation
Technology High efficiency equipment
Description energy High efficiency furnace, kiln, waste heat recovery system, high efficiency process technologies, advanced electric motor New manufacture process technology for cement and steel CCS In cement, steel making, refinery, ethylene manufacture Super high efficiency Advanced diesel hybrid diesel vehicle engine Electric car Fuel cell car High efficiency 30% higher energy aircraft efficiency Bio-fuel aircraft Super high efficiency With COP>7 air-conditioner LED lighting In house renewable Solar PV/Wind/Solar hot energy system water and space heating Heat pumps High isolation building High efficiency electric appliance IGCC/PolyWith efficiency above 55% Generation IGCC/Fuel cell With efficiency above 60% On shore Wind Off shore wind
Note Nearly market
in
Mature Mature Mature before 2030
Mature Mature before 2020
Solar PV Solar Thermal th
4 Generation Nuclear Advanced NGCC With efficiency above 65% Biomass IGCC CCS in power generation Alternative fuels Second generation bio-ethanol Bio-diesel Vehicles, ships, vessels Grid Smart grid Circulating Recycle, reuse, tecnologies reducing material use
11
Technology Roadmap
Ultra performance air-conditioni ng Popularization Rate: 100%
Advanced Solar Water heater/ heating Popularization Rate: 45%, of all the suitable construction
12
13
Power Capacity by technologies in China, low energy scenario 250000
Hydro Nuclear Wind off shore Wind on shore Biomass IGCC Biomass Direct
200000
Solar Thermal Solar PV
10MW
150000
Oil NGCC 100000
N.Gas PFBC IGCC-Fuel Cell IGCC-68%
50000
0 2000
IGCC-20% US-Critical 2005
2010
2020 Year
2030
2040
2050
Super Critical Large Coal Unit Samll Coal
14
CCS future 120 100 IGCC-Fuel Cell IGCC US-Critical Super Critical Large Coal Unit Samll Coal
%
80 60 40 20 0 2000
2005
2010
2020 Year
2030
2040
2050
15
CCS •CCS is crucial for China for deep cut on CO2 •By 2050, there I still more than 2billion ton coal use in China •CCS is long-term technology, for negative emission • Cost: electricity price increase 0.15-0.25yuan/kWh，by 2030 average electricity price increase 0.03yuan/kWh, 0.15yuan/kWh by 2050. • Investment for CCS：3000yuan-5600yuan/kW •IGCC+CCS efficiency loss could go down to 6% •IGCC efficiency：48% for Greengen in 2011，55% by 55% to 58%
Case study for a 900MW IGCC unit with CCS • Investment cost for IGCC: 2020 7500yuan/kW, 2030 6500yuan/kW •CCS: 2020 4500yuan/kW, 2030 3200yuan/kW •Capture rate: 2020 80%, 2030 90% •Transport distance: 80km •Transport cost: 2020 20yuan/t-CO2, 2030 10yua/t-CO2 •Cost for storage: 2020 15yuan/t-Co2, 2030 7yuan/t-CO2 •Interest rate: 8% •Increased cost: 2020 0.28yuan/kWh, 2030: 0.19yuan/kWh
17 17
Investment in Energy Industry in China
Energy Expenditures in China
14000
300000
10^8Yuan
10000 8000
BaU
250000
HLC
200000
6000
HELC
4000
LLC
10^8Yuan
12000
BaU
150000
HLC
100000
2000
50000
0
0
HELC 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Year
GDP Loss, %
10^8 Yuan
Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC 6.00%
20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
2010
2020 2030 2040
2050
5.00% 650ppm
4.00%
550ppm
3.00%
450ppm
2.00%
Per Capita
1.00%
Industry
Transport
Building
Total
Carbon Intensity
0.00%
Year -1.00%
2010
2020
2030
2050
2075
2100
18
19
Fixed Unit Ivestment 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2050
3000
yuan/kW
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 International International IGCC IGCC-Fuel Cell
China IGCC
China SC
China USC
20
SO2 Emission 30 25
MtSO2
20 BaU
15
LC 10
ELC
5 0
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
21
1000ton
Black Carbon Emission in China 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
BaU LowCarbon
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
22
NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario 16.0 14.0
12.0 Mt
10.0 8.0
Other
6.0
Power generation
4.0 2.0
0.0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
23
PM2.5 Emission 6.0 5.0
Mton
4.0 3.0
Other
2.0
Power generation
1.0
0.0 2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
24
Mercury Emission 600.0 500.0
ton
400.0 300.0
Other
200.0
Power generation
100.0
0.0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
25
A Snapshot of Selected China Energy Options Today: Climate and Energy Security Impacts and Tradeoffs in 2025 Bubble size corresponds to incremental energy provided or avoided in 2025. The reference point is the “business as usual” mix in 2025. The horizontal axis includes sustainability as well as traditional aspects of sufficiency, reliability, and affordability. The vertical axis illustrates lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity. Bubble placements are based on quantitative analysis and ERI expert judgment.
Industry Industry Efficiency Efficiency
Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by comparing low energy scenario and policy BaU Nuclear Nuclear Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand barrels of oil per day) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand Liquefied barrels of oil per day) by comparing policy BaU scenario Natural Gas (LNG) and BaU Clean Coal Imports
Reduce Energy Security For specific details on the assumptions underlying the options on this chart, go to www.wri.org/usenergyoptions
Building Efficiency
Positive Climate Characteristics
Corn Ethanol
Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standard Solar PV
Wind
Biodiesel
Ultra-Super Critical
(IGCC) with CO2 Capture
Hydro Hydro
Plug-In Hybrids
CO2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery
Oil Imports
Business As Usual In 2025
Gas-to-Liquids
Biomass Power Cellulosic Ethanol
Increase Energy Security
Expanded Domestic Oil Production Coal-to-Liquids (with carbon capture)
Coal-to-Liquids (no carbon capture)
Revised 7/10/2008
Negative Climate Characteristics
26
Water consumption and greenhouse gas emission of energy generation technologies
Hydro (dam)
Water consumption (m 3 /MWh)
7
Geothermal
500,000 MWh/yr
This size = 100,000 MWh/yr
1,000,000 MWh/yr
5
Close-loop solar thermal
Close-loop nuclear 3
Close-loop USC with CCS
Close-loop SC with CCS Close-loop SC
Open-loop nuclear
1
Open-loop IGCC
Open-loop SC with CCS
Close-loop IGCC with CCS Open-loop IGCC with CCS Open-loop USC with CCS
Close-loop USC Close-loop NGCC Close-loop NGCC with CCS
Dry SC with CCS
Open-loop NGCC with CCS
Open-loop NGCC
Dry solar thermal
-350
-150
Wind (run-of-river) Hydro 50 -1
Energy efficiency for buildings
Top 1000 companies energy efficiency program
Dry USC with CCS Solar PV
Dry NGCC with CCS 250
450
Close-loop subcritical
Close-loop IGCC
Open-loop subcritical
Open-loop USC
Dry NGCC 650
Greenhouse gas emission (Kg CO2 /MWh)
850
1050
Dry USC Open-loop SC Dry SC
-3
Dry subcritical
Policy roadmap: Super high efficiency air conditioner • Efficiency Standard: COP, MEPS • Government Planning • Subsidy
Start COP 9.0 8.0 7.0
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
1.0 0.0 2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
28
29
How to go to LCS in China
• Short term policy: fully implementation of energy conservation, renewable energy, nuclear development policies • Long-term: fully low carbon development strategy • There will be change in next few years: Copenhagen + 5, and dramatic change at Copenhagen + 10 • Political roadmap
30
