4Q15 net profit ahead of both our estimate and the street
TISCO Financial Group Underperform (16E TP Bt40.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt41.00
Banking January 12, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
4Q15 net profit ahead of both our estimate and the street Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
5.096
5.849
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
4.2%
‐3.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TISCO.BK/TISCO TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
FY16
800.62
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
33.00/905.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/46.98
52 week High / Low (Bt)
49.25/34.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
1,476.00
NVDR (%)
10.08
Estimated free float (%)
75.02
Beta
0.56
URL
www.tisco.co.th
CGR
Will revisit the outlook for TISCO after obtaining the 2016 guidance We keep our Underperform rating and the 16E TP of Bt40/share unchanged and will revisit our forecasts after the analyst meeting set for 13 January, in which the bank will provide financial targets for 2016. 4Q15 net profit above both our forecast and the street TISCO’s 4Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt1.2bn (+1% YoY, +54% QoQ) was ahead of both our forecast (Bt1.0bn) and the street estimate (Bt1.17bn). The stronger‐than‐expected NP was due mainly to a higher‐than‐expected net interest margin (NIM) and a slightly lower‐than‐expected provision. 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt1.2bn (+1% YoY, +54% QoQ) The sharp hike in NP QoQ was due to a much lower provision QoQ as TISCO set a huge provision of Bt2.2bn in 3Q15, mainly on the massive one‐off extra provision for SSI UK at ~Bt1.4‐1.5bn in 3Q15. Meanwhile, loans improved 0.4% QoQ on the boost from corporate loans (+1%) and auto hire purchase loans (+0.4%) backed by the government’s policy to increase auto excise tax in 2016. NIM has remained the main bright spot and was ahead of our forecast thanks to its efficient NIM management and the low interest environment. 2015 net profit stood at Bt4.25bn (flat YoY) TISCO still managed to stabilize its net profit in 2015 despite the impact from the SSI case. This was due to the fact that it was able to find a total cushion of ~Bt1bn (in particular an operating cost cut by utilizing part of deferred expenses) to help ease such impact. Meanwhile, its core profit (PPOP) still increased by 12% YoY backed mainly by its efficient NIM management as well as its stringent operating cost control (reflected in its low cost‐to‐income ratio at just 36% in 2015 vs. 37.6% in 2014). Asset quality improved QoQ Its NPLs for 4Q15 declined QoQ to 3.23% of loans from 3.3%, but still increased YoY from 2.57% in 2014. The higher ratio YoY was caused by 1) a loan drop by 9% YoY and especially 2) the impact from the NPL classification of SSI (Bt821mn). Excluding the NPLs of SSI, the NPL ratio would stand at 2.89%. Meanwhile, its loan loss reserve (LLR) to NPL improved slightly QoQ to 80% from 74% but still dropped from 103% in 2014. Its LLR to the BoT’s required LLR in 4Q15 was at 126% vs. 122% in 3Q15 and 181% in 2014. Excluding the effect of SSI, NPLs of other loan segments, especially auto hire purchase, started to stabilize or decline. Financials and Valuation
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
PPOP (Btm)
8,036
8,412
9,399
7,847
7,829
Net profit (Btm)
4,249
4,250
4,250
4,504
4,782
EPS (Bt)
5.31
5.31
5.31
5.63
5.97
EPS growth (%)
4.3%
0.0%
0.0%
6.0%
6.2%
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
2.00
2.20
2.20
2.25
2.27
Book value (Bt)
Dividend (Bt)
28.71
32.14
35.09
38.41
42.13 2017E
Analyst, no 17836
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
[email protected]
PER (X)
7.73
7.72
7.72
7.29
6.86
66 (0) 2695‐5872
PBV (X)
1.43
1.28
1.17
1.07
0.97
4.88 20.6%
5.36 17.4%
5.37 15.8%
6.25 15.4%
6.30 14.8%
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 4Q15 earnings results Statement of Comprehensive Income Fiscal Year‐Ended December Net Interes t Income
2014
2015
2,396
4Q14
2,617
3Q15
2,665
4Q15
% YoY % QoQ 11%
2%
9,540
10,130
% YoY 6%
Non Interes t Income
1,521
1,561
1,566
3%
0%
6,084
6,359
5%
Opera ti ng Income
3,917
4,178
4,231
8%
1%
15,624
16,489
6%
Opera ti ng Expens es
1,505
1,010
1,792
19%
77%
5,880
5,923
1%
Opera ti ng Profi t
1,966
2,967
2,133
8%
‐28%
8,437
9,404
11%
Provi s i on (Revers a l )
883
2,166
896
2%
‐59%
4,426
5,277
19%
Ta xes
297
197
301
1%
53%
1,043
1,032
‐1%
Net Profi t PPOP EPS (Bt)
1,234 1,968 1.54
809 2,971 1.01
1,244 2,134 1.55
1% 8% 1%
54% ‐28% 54%
4,250 8,412 5.31
4,250 9,399 5.31
0% 12% 0%
Key Statistics & Ratios
4Q14
Gros s NPLs (Btmn)
6,750
Gros s NPLs /Loa ns
3Q15 7,841
4Q15 7,701
2014 6,750
2015 7,701
2.57%
3.30%
3.23%
2.57%
103.0%
74.1%
80.1%
103.0%
80.1%
Ti er I/Ri s k As s et
12.5%
13.9%
13.9%
12.5%
13.9%
Ca pi ta l Adequa cy Ra ti o
16.7%
17.9%
17.9%
16.7%
17.9%
127.9% 146.4% 150.7%
127.9%
150.7%
97.0%
102.4% 35.9%
Loa n Los s Res erve/NPLs
Loa n to Depos i t Ra ti o Loa n to Depos i ts a nd Borrowi ngs
97.0%
99.5% 102.4%
3.23%
Cos t to Income
38.4%
24.2%
42.3%
37.6%
Non Interes t Income/Tota l Income
38.8%
36.1%
35.1%
38.9%
38.6%
Ta x ra te
19.4%
19.6%
19.5%
19.6%
19.5%
Net Interes t Ma rgi n Provi s i on to a vera ge l oa ns Loa n growth YoY Loa n growth QoQ Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
2.87% 1.31% ‐8.3% ‐4.4%
3.51% 3.56% ‐13.7% ‐4.8%
3.59% 1.51% ‐9.3% 0.4%
2.86% 1.61% ‐8.3%
3.41% 2.11% ‐9.3%
Figure 2: TISCO's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 2.4 +2 S.D. 2.0
+1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg.
1.6
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
1.2 0.8
Dec-15
Jul-15
Jan-15
Aug-14
Feb-14
Sep-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
May-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jul-09
Dec-09
Jan-09
0.4
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
2016E
PBV (x)
Implied market Upside/ Downside price (Bt) to current price (%)
+2.0SD
2.0
79
92
+1.5SD
1.9
73
77
+1.0SD
1.7
67
62
+0.5SD
1.6
61
48
Average
1.4
55
33
-0.5SD
1.3
49
19
-1.0SD
1.1
43
4
-1.5SD
1.0
37
-11
-2.0SD
0.8
31
-25
Figure 3: TISCO's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 12 11 10 9 8 7
2016E
PER (x)
+2.0SD
10.7
60
+1.5SD
10.0
56
38
+1.0SD
9.3
52
28 18
+2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D.
Implied market Upside/ Downside price (Bt) to current price (%) 47
+0.5SD
8.6
49
Average
7.9
45
9
4
-0.5SD
7.2
41
-1
3
-1.0SD
6.5
37
-10
-1.5SD
5.8
33
-20
-2.0SD
5.1
29
-30
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Dec-15
Jul-15
Jan-15
Aug-14
Feb-14
Sep-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Nov-10
May-11
Jul-09
Dec-09
Jan-09
5
Jun-10
-1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
6
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, TFG. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt41.00
Banking January 12, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
4Q15 net profit ahead of both our estimate and the street Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
5.096
5.849
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
4.2%
‐3.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TISCO.BK/TISCO TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
FY16
800.62
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
33.00/905.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/46.98
52 week High / Low (Bt)
49.25/34.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
1,476.00
NVDR (%)
10.08
Estimated free float (%)
75.02
Beta
0.56
URL
www.tisco.co.th
CGR
Will revisit the outlook for TISCO after obtaining the 2016 guidance We keep our Underperform rating and the 16E TP of Bt40/share unchanged and will revisit our forecasts after the analyst meeting set for 13 January, in which the bank will provide financial targets for 2016. 4Q15 net profit above both our forecast and the street TISCO’s 4Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt1.2bn (+1% YoY, +54% QoQ) was ahead of both our forecast (Bt1.0bn) and the street estimate (Bt1.17bn). The stronger‐than‐expected NP was due mainly to a higher‐than‐expected net interest margin (NIM) and a slightly lower‐than‐expected provision. 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt1.2bn (+1% YoY, +54% QoQ) The sharp hike in NP QoQ was due to a much lower provision QoQ as TISCO set a huge provision of Bt2.2bn in 3Q15, mainly on the massive one‐off extra provision for SSI UK at ~Bt1.4‐1.5bn in 3Q15. Meanwhile, loans improved 0.4% QoQ on the boost from corporate loans (+1%) and auto hire purchase loans (+0.4%) backed by the government’s policy to increase auto excise tax in 2016. NIM has remained the main bright spot and was ahead of our forecast thanks to its efficient NIM management and the low interest environment. 2015 net profit stood at Bt4.25bn (flat YoY) TISCO still managed to stabilize its net profit in 2015 despite the impact from the SSI case. This was due to the fact that it was able to find a total cushion of ~Bt1bn (in particular an operating cost cut by utilizing part of deferred expenses) to help ease such impact. Meanwhile, its core profit (PPOP) still increased by 12% YoY backed mainly by its efficient NIM management as well as its stringent operating cost control (reflected in its low cost‐to‐income ratio at just 36% in 2015 vs. 37.6% in 2014). Asset quality improved QoQ Its NPLs for 4Q15 declined QoQ to 3.23% of loans from 3.3%, but still increased YoY from 2.57% in 2014. The higher ratio YoY was caused by 1) a loan drop by 9% YoY and especially 2) the impact from the NPL classification of SSI (Bt821mn). Excluding the NPLs of SSI, the NPL ratio would stand at 2.89%. Meanwhile, its loan loss reserve (LLR) to NPL improved slightly QoQ to 80% from 74% but still dropped from 103% in 2014. Its LLR to the BoT’s required LLR in 4Q15 was at 126% vs. 122% in 3Q15 and 181% in 2014. Excluding the effect of SSI, NPLs of other loan segments, especially auto hire purchase, started to stabilize or decline. Financials and Valuation
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
PPOP (Btm)
8,036
8,412
9,399
7,847
7,829
Net profit (Btm)
4,249
4,250
4,250
4,504
4,782
EPS (Bt)
5.31
5.31
5.31
5.63
5.97
EPS growth (%)
4.3%
0.0%
0.0%
6.0%
6.2%
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
2.00
2.20
2.20
2.25
2.27
Book value (Bt)
Dividend (Bt)
28.71
32.14
35.09
38.41
42.13 2017E
Analyst, no 17836
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
[email protected]
PER (X)
7.73
7.72
7.72
7.29
6.86
66 (0) 2695‐5872
PBV (X)
1.43
1.28
1.17
1.07
0.97
4.88 20.6%
5.36 17.4%
5.37 15.8%
6.25 15.4%
6.30 14.8%
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 4Q15 earnings results Statement of Comprehensive Income Fiscal Year‐Ended December Net Interes t Income
2014
2015
2,396
4Q14
2,617
3Q15
2,665
4Q15
% YoY % QoQ 11%
2%
9,540
10,130
% YoY 6%
Non Interes t Income
1,521
1,561
1,566
3%
0%
6,084
6,359
5%
Opera ti ng Income
3,917
4,178
4,231
8%
1%
15,624
16,489
6%
Opera ti ng Expens es
1,505
1,010
1,792
19%
77%
5,880
5,923
1%
Opera ti ng Profi t
1,966
2,967
2,133
8%
‐28%
8,437
9,404
11%
Provi s i on (Revers a l )
883
2,166
896
2%
‐59%
4,426
5,277
19%
Ta xes
297
197
301
1%
53%
1,043
1,032
‐1%
Net Profi t PPOP EPS (Bt)
1,234 1,968 1.54
809 2,971 1.01
1,244 2,134 1.55
1% 8% 1%
54% ‐28% 54%
4,250 8,412 5.31
4,250 9,399 5.31
0% 12% 0%
Key Statistics & Ratios
4Q14
Gros s NPLs (Btmn)
6,750
Gros s NPLs /Loa ns
3Q15 7,841
4Q15 7,701
2014 6,750
2015 7,701
2.57%
3.30%
3.23%
2.57%
103.0%
74.1%
80.1%
103.0%
80.1%
Ti er I/Ri s k As s et
12.5%
13.9%
13.9%
12.5%
13.9%
Ca pi ta l Adequa cy Ra ti o
16.7%
17.9%
17.9%
16.7%
17.9%
127.9% 146.4% 150.7%
127.9%
150.7%
97.0%
102.4% 35.9%
Loa n Los s Res erve/NPLs
Loa n to Depos i t Ra ti o Loa n to Depos i ts a nd Borrowi ngs
97.0%
99.5% 102.4%
3.23%
Cos t to Income
38.4%
24.2%
42.3%
37.6%
Non Interes t Income/Tota l Income
38.8%
36.1%
35.1%
38.9%
38.6%
Ta x ra te
19.4%
19.6%
19.5%
19.6%
19.5%
Net Interes t Ma rgi n Provi s i on to a vera ge l oa ns Loa n growth YoY Loa n growth QoQ Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
2.87% 1.31% ‐8.3% ‐4.4%
3.51% 3.56% ‐13.7% ‐4.8%
3.59% 1.51% ‐9.3% 0.4%
2.86% 1.61% ‐8.3%
3.41% 2.11% ‐9.3%
Figure 2: TISCO's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 2.4 +2 S.D. 2.0
+1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg.
1.6
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
1.2 0.8
Dec-15
Jul-15
Jan-15
Aug-14
Feb-14
Sep-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
May-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jul-09
Dec-09
Jan-09
0.4
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
2016E
PBV (x)
Implied market Upside/ Downside price (Bt) to current price (%)
+2.0SD
2.0
79
92
+1.5SD
1.9
73
77
+1.0SD
1.7
67
62
+0.5SD
1.6
61
48
Average
1.4
55
33
-0.5SD
1.3
49
19
-1.0SD
1.1
43
4
-1.5SD
1.0
37
-11
-2.0SD
0.8
31
-25
Figure 3: TISCO's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 12 11 10 9 8 7
2016E
PER (x)
+2.0SD
10.7
60
+1.5SD
10.0
56
38
+1.0SD
9.3
52
28 18
+2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D.
Implied market Upside/ Downside price (Bt) to current price (%) 47
+0.5SD
8.6
49
Average
7.9
45
9
4
-0.5SD
7.2
41
-1
3
-1.0SD
6.5
37
-10
-1.5SD
5.8
33
-20
-2.0SD
5.1
29
-30
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Dec-15
Jul-15
Jan-15
Aug-14
Feb-14
Sep-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Nov-10
May-11
Jul-09
Dec-09
Jan-09
5
Jun-10
-1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
6
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, TFG. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
