A PREDICTIVE MODELING STRATEGY FOR GCOOS
A PREDICTIVE MODELING STRATEGY FOR GCOOS CHRISTOPHER N. K. MOOERS PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY & CORTIS COOPER CHEVRON ENERGY TECHNOLOGY CO. MTS/IEEE OCEANS ‘09 [27 to 29 OCT] BILOXI, MS
ATTRIBUTES OF GCOOS (GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM) • IT IS ONE OF ELEVEN IOOS REGIONS • IT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO • IT ADDRESSES BOTH SHELF AND ‘BLUE WATER’ REGIMES • THE FORCING INCLUDES (1) GULF STREAM THROUGHFLOW, (2) AIR-SEA EXCHANGES, (3)RIVER DISCHARGE, AND (4)TIDES • STEEP BOTTOM TOPOGRAPHY IS CRUCIAL • LOOP CURRENT EDDY-SHEDDING CAN BE A DOMINANT INFLUENCE
UNIQUE PROGRAMMATIC FEATURES • MMS HAS INVESTED IN MAJOR GOMEX OBSERVATIONAL & MODELING ACTIVITIES • NAVY (NRL & NAVO) USES GOMEX AS A TESTBED • NOAA HAS NUMEROUS ENVIRONMENTAL & ECOLOGICAL MANGEMENT NEEDS FOR CIRCULATION PREDICTIONS IN GOMEX • MEXICAN SCIENTISTS ARE ACTIVE IN GOMEX CIRCULATION STUDIES WITH PEMEX & MMS • OFFSHORE OIL & GAS INDUSTRY HAS EXTENSIVE OPERATIONS IN DEEPWATER GOMEX THAT NEED CIRCULATION PREDICTIONS
STRATEGIC APPROACH TO AN OPERATIONAL MODELING & ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM FOR GOMEX • OVER 20 CIRCULATION MODELS EXIST FOR THE GOMEX, A FEW ARE TRULY OPERATIONAL • NONE ARE IN USE BY GCOOS, IN PART, DUE TO INSUFFICIENT SKILL ASSESSMENT EFFORTS • HENCE, A MAJOR SKILL ASSESSMENT EXPERIMENT IN GOMEX IS NEEDED TO HELP DEFINE A WAY FORWARD FOR GCOOS
GOMEX PREDICTION PILOT PROJECT (GOMEX-PPP) • • • • • •
SPONSORED BY RPSEA & CASE-JIP DURATION: 2 ½ YRS; FUNDING ca. $1.5M STARTS ca. JAN 2010 PHASE I (18 MOS) SKILL ASSESSMENT PHASE II (12 MOS) DEMONSTRATION CONOPS DEVELOPMENT FOR TRANSITION TO OPERATIONAL PREDICTIONS
GOMEX – PPP (CONTINUED) • OPERATIONAL MODEL PARTICIPANTS – NAVO: GLOBAL NCOM – NOS: POM – NWS: HYCOM
• R&D MODEL PARTICIPANTS – NRL: IAS NCOM – UCLA/JPL & NCSU: ROMS – PRINCETON U: POM
SABGOM Circulation Hindcast SABGOM ROMS
• 5-km spatial resolution, 36 terrain-following vertical layers, nested inside data assimilative HYCOM/NCODA •Driven by NARR, USGS Rivers, tides
Forecast SSH shortly after Hurricane Katrina made landfall. Note the high SHH (red; max=4.5m) near New Orleans.
902 mb
LSU Mooring
GOMEX-PPP (CONTINUED) • INFORMATION MANAGEMENT - TAMU • SKILL ASSESSMENT - TAMU - PSU - (ALL MODELING GROUPS)
STRATEGIC APPROACH TO AN OPERATIONAL OBSERVING SUBSYSTEM FOR GOMEX • BASED ON SATELLITE RADAR ALTIMETRY AND SATELLITE THERMAL, COLOR, AND RADAR IMAGERY • SUPPLEMENTED WITH PROFILING FLOATS & GLIDERS, SURFACE & SUBSURFACE DRIFTERS, TELEMETRIC MOORINGS, COASTAL HF RADARS, TIDE GAUGES, ETC. • EVOLUTION OF THE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK REQUIRES COORDINATON WITH SKILL ASSESSMENT OF DATA-ASSIMILATIVE PREDICTION MODELS
STRATEGIC APPROACH TO THE MANAGEMENT OF A PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR GOMEX • EMPOWER A SUITABLE STAKEHOLDER GROUP THAT EMBRACES A COMMON VISION • AGREE TO A CONOPS ADDRESSING ROLES & RESPONSIBILITIES, INFRASTRUCTURE, STAFFING, BUDGETS, ETC. • ADOPT A SYSTEMS ENGINEERING APPROACH TO THE SYSTEM DESIGN, IMPLEMENTATION, OPERATION, EVALUATION, EVOLUTION, ETC.
SUMMARY • A STRATEGY HAS BEEN OUTLINED THAT BUILDS UPON PRE-EXISTING MODELING & OBSERVING SUBSYSTEMS IN GOMEX • GCOOS-RA PROVIDES AT LEAST AN EMBRYONIC STAKEHOLDER GROUP TO OVERSEE THE PREDICTION SYSTEM; THERE MAY BE OTHERS • GOMEX IS AN ATTRACTIVE “TESTBED” FOR SKILL ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTIVE MODELS & RELATED OBSERVING SYSTEMS • A R&D PROJECT (viz., GOMEX-PPP) IS BEING FUNDED FOR A PILOT CIRCULATION PREDICTION SYSTEM • NEEDED ARE THE WILL, MANDATE, AND RESOURCES TO MOVE FORWARD ON A SUSTAINED, EVOLVING BASIS
ATTRIBUTES OF GCOOS (GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM) • IT IS ONE OF ELEVEN IOOS REGIONS • IT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO • IT ADDRESSES BOTH SHELF AND ‘BLUE WATER’ REGIMES • THE FORCING INCLUDES (1) GULF STREAM THROUGHFLOW, (2) AIR-SEA EXCHANGES, (3)RIVER DISCHARGE, AND (4)TIDES • STEEP BOTTOM TOPOGRAPHY IS CRUCIAL • LOOP CURRENT EDDY-SHEDDING CAN BE A DOMINANT INFLUENCE
UNIQUE PROGRAMMATIC FEATURES • MMS HAS INVESTED IN MAJOR GOMEX OBSERVATIONAL & MODELING ACTIVITIES • NAVY (NRL & NAVO) USES GOMEX AS A TESTBED • NOAA HAS NUMEROUS ENVIRONMENTAL & ECOLOGICAL MANGEMENT NEEDS FOR CIRCULATION PREDICTIONS IN GOMEX • MEXICAN SCIENTISTS ARE ACTIVE IN GOMEX CIRCULATION STUDIES WITH PEMEX & MMS • OFFSHORE OIL & GAS INDUSTRY HAS EXTENSIVE OPERATIONS IN DEEPWATER GOMEX THAT NEED CIRCULATION PREDICTIONS
STRATEGIC APPROACH TO AN OPERATIONAL MODELING & ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM FOR GOMEX • OVER 20 CIRCULATION MODELS EXIST FOR THE GOMEX, A FEW ARE TRULY OPERATIONAL • NONE ARE IN USE BY GCOOS, IN PART, DUE TO INSUFFICIENT SKILL ASSESSMENT EFFORTS • HENCE, A MAJOR SKILL ASSESSMENT EXPERIMENT IN GOMEX IS NEEDED TO HELP DEFINE A WAY FORWARD FOR GCOOS
GOMEX PREDICTION PILOT PROJECT (GOMEX-PPP) • • • • • •
SPONSORED BY RPSEA & CASE-JIP DURATION: 2 ½ YRS; FUNDING ca. $1.5M STARTS ca. JAN 2010 PHASE I (18 MOS) SKILL ASSESSMENT PHASE II (12 MOS) DEMONSTRATION CONOPS DEVELOPMENT FOR TRANSITION TO OPERATIONAL PREDICTIONS
GOMEX – PPP (CONTINUED) • OPERATIONAL MODEL PARTICIPANTS – NAVO: GLOBAL NCOM – NOS: POM – NWS: HYCOM
• R&D MODEL PARTICIPANTS – NRL: IAS NCOM – UCLA/JPL & NCSU: ROMS – PRINCETON U: POM
SABGOM Circulation Hindcast SABGOM ROMS
• 5-km spatial resolution, 36 terrain-following vertical layers, nested inside data assimilative HYCOM/NCODA •Driven by NARR, USGS Rivers, tides
Forecast SSH shortly after Hurricane Katrina made landfall. Note the high SHH (red; max=4.5m) near New Orleans.
902 mb
LSU Mooring
GOMEX-PPP (CONTINUED) • INFORMATION MANAGEMENT - TAMU • SKILL ASSESSMENT - TAMU - PSU - (ALL MODELING GROUPS)
STRATEGIC APPROACH TO AN OPERATIONAL OBSERVING SUBSYSTEM FOR GOMEX • BASED ON SATELLITE RADAR ALTIMETRY AND SATELLITE THERMAL, COLOR, AND RADAR IMAGERY • SUPPLEMENTED WITH PROFILING FLOATS & GLIDERS, SURFACE & SUBSURFACE DRIFTERS, TELEMETRIC MOORINGS, COASTAL HF RADARS, TIDE GAUGES, ETC. • EVOLUTION OF THE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK REQUIRES COORDINATON WITH SKILL ASSESSMENT OF DATA-ASSIMILATIVE PREDICTION MODELS
STRATEGIC APPROACH TO THE MANAGEMENT OF A PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR GOMEX • EMPOWER A SUITABLE STAKEHOLDER GROUP THAT EMBRACES A COMMON VISION • AGREE TO A CONOPS ADDRESSING ROLES & RESPONSIBILITIES, INFRASTRUCTURE, STAFFING, BUDGETS, ETC. • ADOPT A SYSTEMS ENGINEERING APPROACH TO THE SYSTEM DESIGN, IMPLEMENTATION, OPERATION, EVALUATION, EVOLUTION, ETC.
SUMMARY • A STRATEGY HAS BEEN OUTLINED THAT BUILDS UPON PRE-EXISTING MODELING & OBSERVING SUBSYSTEMS IN GOMEX • GCOOS-RA PROVIDES AT LEAST AN EMBRYONIC STAKEHOLDER GROUP TO OVERSEE THE PREDICTION SYSTEM; THERE MAY BE OTHERS • GOMEX IS AN ATTRACTIVE “TESTBED” FOR SKILL ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTIVE MODELS & RELATED OBSERVING SYSTEMS • A R&D PROJECT (viz., GOMEX-PPP) IS BEING FUNDED FOR A PILOT CIRCULATION PREDICTION SYSTEM • NEEDED ARE THE WILL, MANDATE, AND RESOURCES TO MOVE FORWARD ON A SUSTAINED, EVOLVING BASIS
