Are prepared random sequences and real time random generators ...
A r e P r e p a r e d Random Scquer~(:es and Real Time Random Generators Interchangeable C h a r l e s T. T a r t Department o f P s y c h o l o g y , U n i v e r s i t y of California.. D a v i s , CA 95616 Abstract:
The w i d e s p r e a d use o f r e a l t i m e , e l e c t r o n i c random number genera-
t o r s (RNGs) t o s e l e c t t a r g e t s . a s needed i n p a r a p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e s e a r c h has
,
been a g r e a t c o n v e n i e n c e compared t o t r a d i t i o n a l methods o f s h u f f l i n g c a r d s o r pre-experimental
target list preparation.
E l e c t r o n i c RNGs are s u b j e c t t o
p s y c h o k i n e t i c i n f l u e n c e s , however, and t h i s and o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n s have l e d t o suggestions t h a t pre-experimentally prepared t a r g e t lists replace r e a l time RNGs a s s t a n d a r d o p e r a t i n g p r o c e d u r e .
I f p r e p a r e d t a r g e t l i s t s a r e ex-
p e r i m e n t a l l y and p s y c h i c a l l y e q u i v a l e n t t o r e a l t i m e RNGs, t h i s s u g g e s t i o n h a s merit.
An e x p e r i m e n t was c a r r i e d o u t i n which some r u n s on two ten-
c h o i c e ESP feedback t r a i n i n g d e v i c e s used t a r g e t s g e n e r a t e d on demand f o r e a c h t r i a l by a r e a l t i m e e l e c t r o n i c RNG, w h i l e f o r o t h e r r u n s on one d e v i c e t h e t a r g e t s had been g e n e r a t e d b e f o r e t h e r u n and s t o r e d i n t h e c o n t r o l l i n g comp u t e r ' s memory. difference.
N e i t h e r e x p e r i m e n t e r s nor p e r c i p i e n t s were aware o f t h i s
Because o f t h e p r o b a b l e e x i s t e n c e o f t r a n s - t e m p o r a l i n h i b i t i o n ,
a n i n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g mechanism i n v o l v e d i n ESP f u n c t i o n i n g ; I hypothes i z e d t h a t t h e two t a r g e t c o n d i t i o n s would n o t be e q u i v a l e n t i n terms o f +1 precognitive scoring.
While i n t e n d e d , r e a l t i m e s c o r i n g was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t ,
t h e p r e d i c t e d d i f f e r e n c e was, P < .05, 2 - t a i l e d .
Thus r e a l t i m e RNGs and p r e -
p r e p a r e d s t o r e d t a r g e t s may n o t be p s y c h i c a l l y and e x p e r i m e n t a l l y e q u i v a l e n t .
A r e P r e p a r e d Random S e q u e n c e s and R e a l Time Random Generators Interchangeable?
C h a r l e s T. T a r t ~ e ~ a r t m e no ft P s y c h o l o g y University of California D a v i s , CA
95616
E l e c t r o n i c random number g e n e r a t o r s (RNGs), w h i c h g e n e r a t e a random t a r g e t number o n demand f o r e a c h t r i a l , became w i d e l y a c c e p t e d i n p a r a p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e s e a r c h f o l l o w i n g t h e i r u s e by m y s e l f ( T a r t , 1966;)
and
S c h m i d t (1970).
The c o n v e n i e n c e and e x p e r i m e n t a l e l e g a n c e o f r e a l t i m e R N G s o v e r t h e t e d i o u s mechanical s h u f f l i n g of c a r d s o r pre-experimental
preparation of t a r g e t lists
f r o m random number t a b l e s seemed t o b e s u b s t a n t i a l .
Numerous s - t u d i e s have
now shown, however, t h a t e l e c t r o n i c RNGs are s i g n i f i c a n t l y s u s c e p t i b l e t o PK e f f e c t s ( H o n o r t o n , 1978).
Thus when a n e l e c t r o n i c RNG is u s e d a s a r e a l
t i m e g e n e r a t o r i n a n y ESP e x p e r i m e n t , t h e p o s s i b i l i t y e x i s t s t h a t some un-
s p e c i f i a b l e p r o p o r t i o n o f s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s m i g h t b e d u e t o PK a c t i o n r a t h e r t h a n ESP.
T h i s was t h e c a s e i n my own f i r s t s t u d y o f t h e e f f e c t s o f immediate
. f e e d b a c k o n e n h a n c i n g ESP a b i l i t y ( T a r t ,
1976; 1979a).
As we d o n o t , a t p r e -
s e n t , have a way o f p a r t i a l i n g o u t p o s s i b l e PK e f f e c t s f r o m p o s s i b l e ESP e f f e c t s , t h i s leads t o ambiguity i n understanding experimental r e s u l t s . One r e s u l t o f t h i s a m b i g u i t y h a s b e e n a c a l l .by s e v e r a l c o l l e a g u e s i n t h e l a s t few y e a r s t o u s e p r e p a r e d random number t a b l e s t o p r e - e x p e r i m e n t a l l y
set up ESP t a r g e t s a s s t a n d a r d o p e r a t i n g p r o c e d u r e .
I n t h i s case the char-
a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e t a r g e t d i s t r i b u t i o n are a l w a y s known and a c c e p t a b l y r a n dom, a n d d i s t r i b u t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s would n o t b e a l t e r e d b y p o s s i b l e PK effects.
If
p r e p a r e d , s t o r e d random numbers a n d r e a l t i m e R N G s are i n d e e d
e x p e r i m e n t a l l v e q u i v a l e n t , t h i s s u g g e s t i o n h a s g r e a t merit.
The d a t a p r e s e n t e d
T a r t -2
in this
p a p e r s u g g e s t s , however, t h a t t h e y a r e n o t e x p e r i m e n t a l l y e q u i v a l e n t .
I n two r e p o r t e d s t u d i e s ( T a r t , 1 9 7 6 ; 1 9 7 9 b ; T a r t , P a l m e r , & R e d i n g t o n , 1 9 7 9 ) u s i n g a r e a l t i m e ' e l e c t r o n i c RNG, I f o u n d a s t r o n g a n d s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between p o s i t i v e s c o r i n g on a designated
r e a l t i m e t a r g e t a n d +1 p r e c o g n i t i v e s c o r i n g o n t h e u p c o m i n g b u t n o t y e t d e t e r mined n e x t t a r g e t .
T h a t i s , t h e more a p e r c i p i e n t tended t o s c o r e p o s i t i v e l y
o n t h e i n t e n d e d real t i m e t a r g e t , t h e m o r e h e t e n d e d t o s c o r e b e l o w c h a n c e e x p e c t a t i o n on t h e immediate p r e c o g n i t i v e f u t u r e t a r g e t .
I proposed a theory
o f trans-temporal i n h i b i t i o n t o account f o r t h i s (Tart, 1979b), hypothesizing t h a t t h e p a r t o f t h e m i n d w h i c h u s e s p s i is less " l o c a l i z e d " time than our o r d i n a r y brain-mediated consciousness.
i n s p a c e and
Simply a c t i v a t i n g t h i s
p s i p a r t o f t h e m i n d p e r se m i g h t p r o d u c e E S P - m e d i a t e d
information not only
a b o u t t h e d e s i r e d , real t i m e t a r g e t , b u t a l s o a b o u t i m m e d i a t e l y t e m p o r a l l y a d j a c e n t t a r g e t s as w e l l .
A l t h o u g h i t i s m e d i a t e d b y ESP, i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t
a n i m m e d i a t e l y f u t u r e t a r g e t when o n e ' s d e s i r e i s t o g e t t h e r e a l t i m e t a r g e t is e r r o r and n o i s e .
The t h e o r y o f t r a n s - t e m p o r a l i n h i b i t i o n s t a t e s t h a t o n
t h o s e t r i a l s o n w h i c h ESP i s a c t i v a t e d , some n o n - c o n s c i o u s p a r t o f t h e m i n d d i s c r i m i n a t e s t h e immediately f u t u r e and r e a l time t a r g e t s , and t h e n c r e a t e s a psychological i n h i b i t i o n a g a i n s t c a l l i n g t h e immediately f u t u r e t a r g e t , thus e n h a n c i n g (by c o n t r a s t ) t h e c h a n c e s t h a t t h e r e a l t i m e t a r g e t w i l l b e c a l l e d correctly.
O t h e r phenomena, s u c h a s o n e I c a l l e d . p s i - s t u t t e r i n g ,
s u f f i c i e n t h i t s i n a row, s u p p o r t t h e t r a n s - t e m p o r a l 1979b).
a lack of
inhibition idea (Tart,
F u r t h e r p i l o t work I have c a r r i e d o u t b u t n o t y e t r e p o r t e d a l s o sup-
portS it. I n s o f a r as trans-temporal i n h i b i t i o n t h e o r y i s v a l i d , i t s u g g e s t s t h a t a n a l r e a d y prepared, s t o r e d sequence o f t a r g e t s is n o t experimentally equiv a l e n t t o a r e a l t i m e RNG, w h e r e a new t a r g e t is n o t d e t e r m i n e d u n t i l a f t e r
a previous response.
I n t h e a l r e a d y p r e p a r e d t a r g e t case, a t a t i m e o f a n y
T a r t -3 g i v e n r e s p o n s e a l l o f ttie t a r g e t s e x i s t a n d some s o r t o f " s p a t i a l " d i s c r i m i n a t i o n , as w e l l a s p o s s i b l e t e m p o r a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n , may b e r e q u i r e d b y t h e p e r cipient.
I n t h e c a s e o f r e a l t i m e RNG, o n l y t h e p r e s e n t t a r g e t (and r e c o r d s
o f p a s t t a r g e t s ) e x i s t s i n real t i m e o n any g i v e n . t r i a l .
Although I have n o t
y e t c o n c e p t u a l i z e d t h e e x a c t n a t u r e o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s which m i g h t b e expected given t h e hypothesized r e a l i t y of trans-temporal
inhibition, different kinds
o f performance i n terms o f h i t t i n g o r m i s s i n g on immediately f u t u r e t a r g e t s m i g h t b e e x p e c t e d when c o m p a r i n g s t o r e d random t a r g e t s e q u e n c e s w i t h t a r g e t s e q u e n c e s g e n e r a t e d b y r e a l t i m e RNGs. Met hod
I n t h e c o u r s e o f a t h i r d s t u d y on t h e e f f e c t s o f immediate feedback on ESP p e r f o r m a n c e , a m o d i f i c a t i o n o f e q u i p m e n t was made w h i c h a l l o w e d a t e s t o f whether p e r c i p i e n t s responded d i f f e r e n t l y t o s t o r e d t a r g e t s v e r s u s t a r g e t s generated on l i n e .
The t h i r d T r a i n i n g S t u d y was c a r r i e d o u t i n t h e f a l l
t h r o u g h s p r i n g q u a r t e r s o f t h e 1977-1978 a c a d e m i c y e a r # .
As t h e b a s i c p r o c e -
d u r e was s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f t h e two p r e v i o u s t r a i n i n g s t u d i e s ( T a r t , 1 9 7 6 ; T a r t , Palmer, & Redington, 1979), 1 , w i l l o n l y o u t l i n e i t here. The s t u d e n t - e x p e r i m e n t e r s i n my e x p e r i m e n t a l p s y c h o l o g y c l a s s t e s t e d l a r g e . g r o u p s o f s t u d e n t s a t t h e D a v i s campus o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a i n c l a s s -
room s i t u a t i o n s .
The t e s t was a s i n g l e c l a i r v o y a n c e and s i n g l e GESP r u n w i t h
c a r d s , c o n d u c t e d i n t h e l a s t f e w m i n u t e s o f t h e class.
Students' responses
fa above chance
0
w e r e s c o r e d i n d i v i d u a l l y , a n d t h o s e s h o w i n g some s u g g e s t i o n s
s c o r i n g were asked t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n a second confirmation phase o f individual testing.
Here t h e y r e c e i v e d h a l f a d o z e n i n d i v i d u a l r u n s o f 2 0 t r i a l s e a c h
on o n e o f two t e n - c h o i c e The f i r s t t e n - c h o i c e
trainers. t r a i n e r was t h e Ten-Choice T r a i n e r (TCT) d e v i c e
used i n t h e f i r s t T r a i n i n g S t u d y ( T a r t , 1976). 1 0 u n l i t lamps w i t h a p u s h b u t t o n b e s i d e e a c h .
It consisted of a c i r c l e of
A s e p a r a t e r e a l t i m e RNG o f
T a r t -4 ~ \ c c t fiaic
t h e f i r o u l e t t e wheel type, a c t i v a t e d by t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r f o r e a c h t r i a l , generated a single target.
T h i s t a r g e t was t h e n t r a n s f e r r e d t o t h e s e n d e r ' s TCT
c o n t r o l console through a t i m e delayed system t h a t provided uniform timing between trials.
The p e r c i p i e n t i n d i c a t e d h i s c a l l b y p u s h i n g a r e s p o n s e b u t t o n
on h i s TCT c o n s o l e .
Immediate f e e d b a c k was p r o v i d e d by t h e c o r r e c t t a r g e t
l i g h t coming on i m m e d i a t e l y f o l l o w i n g e a c h r e s p o n s e .
T a r g e t and r e s p o n s e d a t a
w e r e r e c o r d e d by t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r . The Apple-ADElT t e n c h o i c e t r a i n i n g d e v i c e (A/ADEPT) was a more s o p h i s t i c a t e d v e r s i o n o f t h e TCT.
An A p p l e I1 m i c r o c o m p u t e r c o n t r o l l e d t h e func-
t i o n i n g o f t h e d i s p l a y a n d r e s p o n s e c o n s o l e s , as w e l l a s e l e c t r o n i c a l l y r e c o r d sli,htl i n g d a t a . From t h e p e r c i p i e n t ' s p o i n t o f view, t h e m a c h i n e s w e r e xis& d i f f e r e n t i n o n e l o o k i n g more p r o f e s s i o n a l t h a n t h e o t h e r , a l t h o u g h a r r a n g e d /
i n t h e same g e n e r a l manner, and t h e b a s i c t a s k o n e a c h was t o push t h e b u t t o n b e s i d e o n e o f t h e 1 0 u n l i t lamps t h a t c o r r e s p o n d e d t o t h e t a r g e t .
The A/ADEPT
s y s t e m u s e d h e r e u t i l i z e d t h e same d i s p l a y c o n s o l e s a s t h e ADEPT (Advanced Decimal E x t r a s e n s o r y P e r c e p t i o n T r a i n e r ) s y s t e m u s e d i n t h e s e c o n d T r a i n i n g S t u d y ( R e d i n g t o n & T a r t , 1976;
T a r t , Palmer,
& Redington,
1979). b u t r a t h e r
t h a n t h e s p e c i a l a n a l o g c i r c u i t s u s e d i n t h e o r i g i n a l ADEPT, t h e A p p l e I1 comp u t e r c o n t r o l l e d b o t h t a r g e t g e n e r a t i o n , c o n s o l e o p e r a t i o n , and d a t a s c o r i n g and s t o r a g e . The A p p l e I1 c o m p u t e r c o n t a i n s a t y p i c a l computer pseudo-random number generator.
A s e e d number i n t h e computer i s p r o c e s s e d b y a complex a l g o r h y t h m
on e a c h o c c a s i o n t h a t a random number i s r e q u e s t e d , and t h e a l g o r h y t h m p r e s e n t s t h e l a s t d i g i t o f t h e c o m p u t a t i o n a s a random o u t p u t . t h i s pseudo-random
Numerous t e s t i n g s o f
g e n e r a t o r i n b a t c h e s o f 1 0 , 0 0 0 o u t p u t s h a v e shown no s i g n i -
f i c a n t b i a s e s b y Chi-square
test a t t h e s i n g l e t , d o u b l e t , o r t r i p l e t l e v e l .
Our c o n t r o l program, d e v e l o p e d b y Dana J. R e d i n g t o n , t u r n e d t h e Apple 11 i n t o
a t r u e random g e n e r a t o r r a t h e r t h a n a pseudo-random g e n e r a t o r i n t h e f o l l o w i n g
Tart
-5
way.
The t i m e i n m i l l i s e c o n d s b e tween e a c h r e s p o n s e o f a p e r c i p i e n t was
m e a s u r e d , a n d t h i s h i g h l y v a r i a b l e v a l u e was u s e d t o p r o v i d e a b r a n d new s e e d f o r t h e A p p l e I1 pseudo-random g e n e r a t o r o n e v e r y s i n g l e t r i a l . ' Dana R e d i n g t o n f u r t h e r m o d i f i e d t h e A p p l e I1 c o n t r o l p r o g r a m , a t my r e q u e s t , i n t h e f o l l o w i n g manner.
During t h e i n i t i a l s e t u p o f e a c h run, 1 0
l e v e r p r e s s e s o n t h e ADEPT c o n t r o l c o n s o l e w e r e r e q u i r e d from t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r . T h e s e l e v e r p r e s s e s w e r e r a t h e r v a g u e l y d e s c r i b e d t o e x p e r i m e n t e r s as g e n e r a t i n g a series o f random numbers w h i c h s e t t h e i n i t i a l random p a r a m e t e r s f o r t h e A p p l e 11's random number g e n e r a t o r . a s e p a r a t e d e c i m a l e l e c t r o n i c RNG.
Actually, each lever p r e s s a c t i v a t e d
I f a n e v e n o u t p u t came u p o n t h e f i r s t
p r e s s , t h i s m e a n t t h a t t h e real t i m e t r u e RNG f u n c t i o n o f t h e A p p l e I1 was u s e d , a n d t h e o u t p u t o f t h e f o l l o w i n g n i n e l e v e r p r e s s e s was i g n o r e d b y t h e c o m p u t e r , a l t h o u g h t h e r e was no i n d i c a t i o n t o t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r t h a t t h e comp u t e r was n o t u s l n g a l l t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n .
I f a n odd o u t p u t came up o n t h i s
f i r s t l e v e r p r e s s , however, t h e A p p l e I1 c o m p u t e r t o o k t h i s as a n i n s t r u c t i o n t o d r a w t a r g e t s s e q u e n t i a l l y from a s t o r e d t a b l e o f 1 , 0 0 0 random d e c i m a l d i g i t s . 'Cl~cf o l l o w i n g n i n e l e v e r p r e s s e s , a c t i v a t i n g a d e c i m a l RNG, w e r e u s e d t o de-
t e r m i n e a t h r e e d i g i t s t a r t i n g p o i n t number f o r e n t e r i n g t h e s t o r e d t a b l e . Usually o n l y t h e second, t h i r d , and f o u r t h l e v e r p r e s s e s were necessary f o r t h i s , b u t w e ' d i d p r o g r a m i n t h e r e s t r i c t i o n t h a t t h e r e had t o b e a t l e a s t 30 numbers l e f t i n t h e t a b l e f r o m t h e e n t r y p o i n t :
i f t o o h i g h a number w e r e ac-
c i d e n t a l l y g e n e r a t e d o n t h e s e c o n d t h r o u g h f o u r t h l e v e r p r e s s e s , i t was r e j e c t e d and t h e l a t e r l e v e r p r e s s e s w e r e u s e d t o f i n d t h e e n t r y p o i n t .
The s t o r e d
t a b l e o f 1 , 0 0 0 d i g i t s i n t h e A p p l e I1 c o m p u t e r memory c o n s i s t e d o f s e q u e n t i a l s e l e c t i o n s from t h e RAND (1955) t a b l e o f random d i g i t s . i n t o t h e RAND t a b l e s was u s e d t o o b t a i n s u c h s e l e c t i o n s . was
A random e n t r y p o i n t This stored table
c o m p l e t e l y r e p l a c e d w i t h new s e l e c t i o n s from t h e RAND t a b l e s a t s e v e r a l
i r r e g u l a r i n t e r v a l s throughout t h e experiment t o minimize t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f any t a r g e t sequence r e p e a t i n g a n earlier t a r g e t sequence.
T a r t -6 None o f t h e s t u d e n t e x p e r i m e n t e r s who a c t u a l l y worked w i t h p e r c i p i e n t s nowledge a b o u t t h e e x a c t f u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e RNG o r n randomly c h o s e t o u s e t h e ' r e a l t i m e o f t h e m ~ d i f ~ c a t i owhich o r t h e s t o r e d t a r g e t numbers o n a n y p a r t i c u l a r r u n .
RNG
I , Dana R e d i n g t o n , and
Henry B e n n e t t , my t e a c h i n g a s s i s t a n t f o r t h e c l a s s , knew o f t h i s m o d i f i c a t i o n , b u t we s p o k e t o no s t u d e n t e x p e r i m e n t e r s o r p e r c i p i e n t s a b o u t i t , t h u s hopef u l l y minimizing
ljkt
experimenter i n f l u e n c e here.
The t h e o r y t h a t immediate f e e d b a c k t r a i n i n g o u g h t t o e n h a n c e p s i p e r formance i n t a l e n t e d s u b j e c t s ( T a r t , 1966b; 1977) r e q u i r e s t h a t p e r c i p i e n t s show some i n i t i a l ESP t a l e n t on t h i s p a r t i c u l a r t y p e o f r e p e a t e d g u e s s i n g t a s k b e f o r e beginning t r a i n i n g i f feedback i s expected t o b e e f f e c t i v e .
As, i t
t u r n e d o u t , ' t h e s e q u e n t i a l s a m p l i n g p r o c e d u r e o f g r o u p s e l e c t i o n p h a s e s and i n d i v i d u a l ' confirmation phases d i d n o t t a i n s i g n s o f ESP t a l e n t .
p e r c i . p i e n t s who 'showed a n y c e r -
Because o f t h e e d u c a t i o n a l o b l i g a t i o n t o my s t u d e n t
e x p e r i m e n t e r s , however, I e n c o u r a g e d them t o u s e a n y s u g g e s t i v e s i g n s o f ES-P i n p e r c i p i e n t s ' Confirmation Study s c o r e s a s c r i t e r i a f o r s e l e c t i n g p e r c i p i e n t s and w o r k i n g w i t h them t h r o u g h t h e T r a i n i n g S t u d y p r o p e r .
While I had t h e im-
p r e s s i o n t h a t we w e r e s c r a p i n g t h e b o t t o m o f t h e b a r r e l t h i s way, I d e l i b e r a t e l y r e f r a i n e d from l o o k i n g t o o c l o s e l y a t C o n f i r m a t i o n S t u d y s c o r e s a t t h e t i m e i n o r d e r t o t r y t o a v o i d a f e e l i n g o f d i s a p p o i n t m e n t i n m y s e l f , a f e e l i n g which m i g h t t r a n s f e r on t o t h e s t u d e n t e x p e r i m e n t e r s and i n h i b i t r e s u l t s . From af C b C o n f l i n t - G ' o q Study, l a t e r s c o r i n g h however, i t i s c l e a r t h a t , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e l e a r n i n g t h e o r y a p p l i c a t i o n , no r e a l r e s u l t s s h o u l d have been e x p e c t e d from t h e t h i r d T r a i n i n g Study.
I d e a l l y , t h e t h i r d T r a i n i n g S t u d y s h o u l d n o t have been c a r r i e d o u t :
r a t h e r , e f f o r t s s h o u l d have b e e n p u t i n t o f u r t h e r S e l e c t i o n and C o n f i r m a t i o n Studies to find talented percipients.
The academic o b l i g a t i o n t o c o m p l e t e
t h e s t u d e n t e x p e ' r i m e n t e r s ' e d u c a t i o n , however, d i c t a t e d t h a t t h e T r a i n i n g S t u d y b e completed.
Thus 14 p e r c i p i e n t s completed 20 r u n s o f 20 t r i a l s e a c h .
Nine
'
T a r t -7 o f ' t h e s e p e r c i p i e n t s worked o n t h e AIADEPT t r a i n i n g d e v i c e and s i x worked on t h e TCT.
One p e r c i p i e n t d i d n o t q u i t e complete h i s planned series b u t h i s
r e s u l t s were added i n t o t h e t o t a l anyway f o r completeness. I n terms o f t h e q u e s t i o n o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l e q u i v a l e n c e o f r e a l time RNGs v e r s u s s t o r e d t a r g e t s , t h e n , what w e have i n t h i s e x p e r i m e n t are condi-
t i o n s t h a t i n some ways are a l i k e .
I n e v e r y t r i a l , on e i t h e r t h e TCT o r t h e
AIADEPT, t h e real time t a r g e t c o n s i s t s o f a s i g n a l lamp l i t on t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r 1 s e n d e r ' s c o n s o l e , p l u s a second d i s p l a y o f t h e same t a r g e t i n n u m e r i c a l form, e i t h e r o n t h e LED d i s p l a y o f t h e TCT'S RNG o r on t h e TV s c r e e n r e a d o u t o f t h e Apple 11's program, p l u s a n e l e c t r o n i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e t a r g e t i n t h e TCT R N G ' s o r Apple 11's e l e c t r o n i c c i r c u i t s .
In the case of stored targets,
however, a l l t h e f u t u r e t a r g e t s i n a g i v e n r u n a l s o e x i s t i n real time i n terms o f e l e c t r o n i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n t h e Apple 11's c i r c u i t r y . Results : /
As a group, t h e 1 5 p e r c i p i e n t s d i d n o t show a n y e v i d e n c e f o r ESP f u n c t i o n i n g i n terms o f h i t t i n g on t h e i n t e n d e d , real t i m e t a r g e t .
They made 609 h i t s
when 591.3 were e x p e c t e d by chance, c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a n i n s i g n i f i c a n t Z-score of
+
-77,
One i n d i v i d u a l p e r c i p i e n t s c o r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y above chance (53
h i t s when 4 0 were e x p e c t e d by chance, P Z . 0 3 ,
2-tailed),
b u t t h i s is probably
n o t s i g n i f i c a n t when 15 i n d i v i d u a l s i g n i f i c a n c e tests were conducted.
There
were no s u g g e s t i o n s o f s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s (by t - t e s t ) between t h e TCT and A/ADEPT d e v i c e s , o r between t h e real time RNG v e r s u s s t o r e d t a r g e t condit i o n s o f t h e AIADEPT. The p r i n c i p a l h y p o t h e s i s o f a s c o r i n g d i f f e r e n c e on +1 f u t u r e d i s p l a c e m e n t s c o r i n g between real t i m e and s t o r e d t a r g e t s was t e s t e d i n two ways.
First,
t h e real t i m e and s t o r e d c o n d i t i o n s on t h e AIADEPT were compared by a t-test between t h e s t a n d a r d 2 - s c o r e s o f e a c h p e r c i p i e n t on +1 s c o r i n g .
The mean Z-
s c o r e f o r real t i m e RNG t a r g e t s was -013, w h i l e f o r s t o r e d t a r g e t s i t was +.78, t = 2.11,
Pz.06,
2-tailed.
Second, t h e RNG c o n d i t i o n s on t h e TCT and AIADEPT
T a r t -8 a r e e s s e n t i a l l y e q u i v a l e n t , s o t h o s e d a t a were combined f o r a more s e n s i t i v e t e s t of real d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h a l a r g e r d a t a b a s e .
The mean 2 - s c o r e f o r s c o r i n g
o n +1 d i s p l a c e m e n t s w i t h t h e real t i m e RNG c h a n g e s t r i v i a l l y t o 0.06, and f o r t h e c o m p a r i s o n , t = 2.34,
Pc.05,
2-tailed.
Discussion The p r e s e n t s t u d y i s l i m i t e d , f i r s t i n b e i n g o n l y a s i n g l e s t u d y , and second i n n o t h a v i n g a n y s i g n i f i c a n t amount o f ESP o c c u r r i n g i n i t o v e r a l l by conventional scoring.
With l i t t l e o r no a p p a r e n t ESP m a n i f e s t i n g on t h e in-
t e n d e d r e a l t i m e t a r g e t s , t h e e f f e c t s o f t r a n s - t e m p o r a l i n h i b i t i o n on t h e hyp o t h e s i z e d n o n - e q u i v a l e n c e of real t i m e RNG and s t o r e d t a r g e t c o n d i t i o n s m i g h t b e m i n i m a l o r non-exis t e n t .
N e v e r t h e l e s s , a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e was found
on +1 p r e c o g n i t i v e s c o r i n g , and t h e s t u d y s t r o n g l y s u g g e s t s t h a t s t o r e d random number t a r g e t s and t a r g e t s g e n e r a t e d by r e a l t i m e RNG are n o t e q u i v a l e n t exp e r i m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s i n t e r m s o f t h e way p s i works.
I n s p i t e o f t h e con-
v e n i e n c e s t h a t m i g h t be g a i n e d i n some e x p e r i m e n t s by r o u t i n e l y u s i n g s t o r e d t a r g e t s t h e n , I would s u g g e s t t h a t t h i s i s a more complex m a t t e r t h a n we t h i n k and o n e w a r r a n t i n g f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n b e f o r e s t o r e d t a r g e t l i s t s become a standard o p e r a t i n g procedure.
Tart -9 Rcferet~ces Honorton,C.
Replicability, experimenter influence, and parapsychology: An
empirical context for the study of mind.
Paper, American Association for
Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C.,
1978.
RAND Corporation,
A
million random digits.
Redington,D., & Tart,C.
Glencoe, 1llinois:Free Press,1955.
ADEPT: A state-of-the-art ESP training machine. (In
J.Morris, W.Rol1, & ReMorris (Eds.),
Research
in
Parapsycholo~y1975,
Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press, 1976. Pp. 18-20. Schmidt,H.
A quantum mechanical random number generator £or psi,tests. Journal
of Parapsycholony, 1970, 34, 219-224. Tart,C.
ESPATESTER: An automatic testing device for parapsychological research.
Journal American Society Psychical Research, 1966, 60, 256-269. (a) Tart,C.
Card guessing tests: Learning paradigm or extinction paradigm?
Journal American Society PSychical Research, 1966, 6 0 , 46-55; (b) Tart,C. Learninq to Use Extrasensory Perception.
Chicago: University of
.c
Chicago Press, 1976. Tart,C.
Toward conscious control of psi through immediate feedback training:
Some considerations of internal processes.
Journal American Society
375-408. Psychical Research, 1977, 2, Tart,C.
Randomicity, predictability, and mathematical inference strategies
i n E S P feedback training experiments. Journal,American Society Psychical Research, 1979, 73, 44-60. Tart,C.
(a)
Improving real time ESP by suppressing the future: Trans-temporal
inhibition. Institute
In Tart,C., Puthoff,H., & Targ,R. (Eds.1, Mind at Large:
of Electrical
Electronic Enpineers Symposia
Perception. New York: Praeger, 1979. Pp. 137-174. Tart,C., Palmer,J., & Redington,D. formance: A second study.
on
Extrasensory
(b)
Effects of immediate feedback on ESP per-
Journal American Society Psychical Research,
The w i d e s p r e a d use o f r e a l t i m e , e l e c t r o n i c random number genera-
t o r s (RNGs) t o s e l e c t t a r g e t s . a s needed i n p a r a p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e s e a r c h has
,
been a g r e a t c o n v e n i e n c e compared t o t r a d i t i o n a l methods o f s h u f f l i n g c a r d s o r pre-experimental
target list preparation.
E l e c t r o n i c RNGs are s u b j e c t t o
p s y c h o k i n e t i c i n f l u e n c e s , however, and t h i s and o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n s have l e d t o suggestions t h a t pre-experimentally prepared t a r g e t lists replace r e a l time RNGs a s s t a n d a r d o p e r a t i n g p r o c e d u r e .
I f p r e p a r e d t a r g e t l i s t s a r e ex-
p e r i m e n t a l l y and p s y c h i c a l l y e q u i v a l e n t t o r e a l t i m e RNGs, t h i s s u g g e s t i o n h a s merit.
An e x p e r i m e n t was c a r r i e d o u t i n which some r u n s on two ten-
c h o i c e ESP feedback t r a i n i n g d e v i c e s used t a r g e t s g e n e r a t e d on demand f o r e a c h t r i a l by a r e a l t i m e e l e c t r o n i c RNG, w h i l e f o r o t h e r r u n s on one d e v i c e t h e t a r g e t s had been g e n e r a t e d b e f o r e t h e r u n and s t o r e d i n t h e c o n t r o l l i n g comp u t e r ' s memory. difference.
N e i t h e r e x p e r i m e n t e r s nor p e r c i p i e n t s were aware o f t h i s
Because o f t h e p r o b a b l e e x i s t e n c e o f t r a n s - t e m p o r a l i n h i b i t i o n ,
a n i n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g mechanism i n v o l v e d i n ESP f u n c t i o n i n g ; I hypothes i z e d t h a t t h e two t a r g e t c o n d i t i o n s would n o t be e q u i v a l e n t i n terms o f +1 precognitive scoring.
While i n t e n d e d , r e a l t i m e s c o r i n g was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t ,
t h e p r e d i c t e d d i f f e r e n c e was, P < .05, 2 - t a i l e d .
Thus r e a l t i m e RNGs and p r e -
p r e p a r e d s t o r e d t a r g e t s may n o t be p s y c h i c a l l y and e x p e r i m e n t a l l y e q u i v a l e n t .
A r e P r e p a r e d Random S e q u e n c e s and R e a l Time Random Generators Interchangeable?
C h a r l e s T. T a r t ~ e ~ a r t m e no ft P s y c h o l o g y University of California D a v i s , CA
95616
E l e c t r o n i c random number g e n e r a t o r s (RNGs), w h i c h g e n e r a t e a random t a r g e t number o n demand f o r e a c h t r i a l , became w i d e l y a c c e p t e d i n p a r a p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e s e a r c h f o l l o w i n g t h e i r u s e by m y s e l f ( T a r t , 1966;)
and
S c h m i d t (1970).
The c o n v e n i e n c e and e x p e r i m e n t a l e l e g a n c e o f r e a l t i m e R N G s o v e r t h e t e d i o u s mechanical s h u f f l i n g of c a r d s o r pre-experimental
preparation of t a r g e t lists
f r o m random number t a b l e s seemed t o b e s u b s t a n t i a l .
Numerous s - t u d i e s have
now shown, however, t h a t e l e c t r o n i c RNGs are s i g n i f i c a n t l y s u s c e p t i b l e t o PK e f f e c t s ( H o n o r t o n , 1978).
Thus when a n e l e c t r o n i c RNG is u s e d a s a r e a l
t i m e g e n e r a t o r i n a n y ESP e x p e r i m e n t , t h e p o s s i b i l i t y e x i s t s t h a t some un-
s p e c i f i a b l e p r o p o r t i o n o f s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s m i g h t b e d u e t o PK a c t i o n r a t h e r t h a n ESP.
T h i s was t h e c a s e i n my own f i r s t s t u d y o f t h e e f f e c t s o f immediate
. f e e d b a c k o n e n h a n c i n g ESP a b i l i t y ( T a r t ,
1976; 1979a).
As we d o n o t , a t p r e -
s e n t , have a way o f p a r t i a l i n g o u t p o s s i b l e PK e f f e c t s f r o m p o s s i b l e ESP e f f e c t s , t h i s leads t o ambiguity i n understanding experimental r e s u l t s . One r e s u l t o f t h i s a m b i g u i t y h a s b e e n a c a l l .by s e v e r a l c o l l e a g u e s i n t h e l a s t few y e a r s t o u s e p r e p a r e d random number t a b l e s t o p r e - e x p e r i m e n t a l l y
set up ESP t a r g e t s a s s t a n d a r d o p e r a t i n g p r o c e d u r e .
I n t h i s case the char-
a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e t a r g e t d i s t r i b u t i o n are a l w a y s known and a c c e p t a b l y r a n dom, a n d d i s t r i b u t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s would n o t b e a l t e r e d b y p o s s i b l e PK effects.
If
p r e p a r e d , s t o r e d random numbers a n d r e a l t i m e R N G s are i n d e e d
e x p e r i m e n t a l l v e q u i v a l e n t , t h i s s u g g e s t i o n h a s g r e a t merit.
The d a t a p r e s e n t e d
T a r t -2
in this
p a p e r s u g g e s t s , however, t h a t t h e y a r e n o t e x p e r i m e n t a l l y e q u i v a l e n t .
I n two r e p o r t e d s t u d i e s ( T a r t , 1 9 7 6 ; 1 9 7 9 b ; T a r t , P a l m e r , & R e d i n g t o n , 1 9 7 9 ) u s i n g a r e a l t i m e ' e l e c t r o n i c RNG, I f o u n d a s t r o n g a n d s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between p o s i t i v e s c o r i n g on a designated
r e a l t i m e t a r g e t a n d +1 p r e c o g n i t i v e s c o r i n g o n t h e u p c o m i n g b u t n o t y e t d e t e r mined n e x t t a r g e t .
T h a t i s , t h e more a p e r c i p i e n t tended t o s c o r e p o s i t i v e l y
o n t h e i n t e n d e d real t i m e t a r g e t , t h e m o r e h e t e n d e d t o s c o r e b e l o w c h a n c e e x p e c t a t i o n on t h e immediate p r e c o g n i t i v e f u t u r e t a r g e t .
I proposed a theory
o f trans-temporal i n h i b i t i o n t o account f o r t h i s (Tart, 1979b), hypothesizing t h a t t h e p a r t o f t h e m i n d w h i c h u s e s p s i is less " l o c a l i z e d " time than our o r d i n a r y brain-mediated consciousness.
i n s p a c e and
Simply a c t i v a t i n g t h i s
p s i p a r t o f t h e m i n d p e r se m i g h t p r o d u c e E S P - m e d i a t e d
information not only
a b o u t t h e d e s i r e d , real t i m e t a r g e t , b u t a l s o a b o u t i m m e d i a t e l y t e m p o r a l l y a d j a c e n t t a r g e t s as w e l l .
A l t h o u g h i t i s m e d i a t e d b y ESP, i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t
a n i m m e d i a t e l y f u t u r e t a r g e t when o n e ' s d e s i r e i s t o g e t t h e r e a l t i m e t a r g e t is e r r o r and n o i s e .
The t h e o r y o f t r a n s - t e m p o r a l i n h i b i t i o n s t a t e s t h a t o n
t h o s e t r i a l s o n w h i c h ESP i s a c t i v a t e d , some n o n - c o n s c i o u s p a r t o f t h e m i n d d i s c r i m i n a t e s t h e immediately f u t u r e and r e a l time t a r g e t s , and t h e n c r e a t e s a psychological i n h i b i t i o n a g a i n s t c a l l i n g t h e immediately f u t u r e t a r g e t , thus e n h a n c i n g (by c o n t r a s t ) t h e c h a n c e s t h a t t h e r e a l t i m e t a r g e t w i l l b e c a l l e d correctly.
O t h e r phenomena, s u c h a s o n e I c a l l e d . p s i - s t u t t e r i n g ,
s u f f i c i e n t h i t s i n a row, s u p p o r t t h e t r a n s - t e m p o r a l 1979b).
a lack of
inhibition idea (Tart,
F u r t h e r p i l o t work I have c a r r i e d o u t b u t n o t y e t r e p o r t e d a l s o sup-
portS it. I n s o f a r as trans-temporal i n h i b i t i o n t h e o r y i s v a l i d , i t s u g g e s t s t h a t a n a l r e a d y prepared, s t o r e d sequence o f t a r g e t s is n o t experimentally equiv a l e n t t o a r e a l t i m e RNG, w h e r e a new t a r g e t is n o t d e t e r m i n e d u n t i l a f t e r
a previous response.
I n t h e a l r e a d y p r e p a r e d t a r g e t case, a t a t i m e o f a n y
T a r t -3 g i v e n r e s p o n s e a l l o f ttie t a r g e t s e x i s t a n d some s o r t o f " s p a t i a l " d i s c r i m i n a t i o n , as w e l l a s p o s s i b l e t e m p o r a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n , may b e r e q u i r e d b y t h e p e r cipient.
I n t h e c a s e o f r e a l t i m e RNG, o n l y t h e p r e s e n t t a r g e t (and r e c o r d s
o f p a s t t a r g e t s ) e x i s t s i n real t i m e o n any g i v e n . t r i a l .
Although I have n o t
y e t c o n c e p t u a l i z e d t h e e x a c t n a t u r e o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s which m i g h t b e expected given t h e hypothesized r e a l i t y of trans-temporal
inhibition, different kinds
o f performance i n terms o f h i t t i n g o r m i s s i n g on immediately f u t u r e t a r g e t s m i g h t b e e x p e c t e d when c o m p a r i n g s t o r e d random t a r g e t s e q u e n c e s w i t h t a r g e t s e q u e n c e s g e n e r a t e d b y r e a l t i m e RNGs. Met hod
I n t h e c o u r s e o f a t h i r d s t u d y on t h e e f f e c t s o f immediate feedback on ESP p e r f o r m a n c e , a m o d i f i c a t i o n o f e q u i p m e n t was made w h i c h a l l o w e d a t e s t o f whether p e r c i p i e n t s responded d i f f e r e n t l y t o s t o r e d t a r g e t s v e r s u s t a r g e t s generated on l i n e .
The t h i r d T r a i n i n g S t u d y was c a r r i e d o u t i n t h e f a l l
t h r o u g h s p r i n g q u a r t e r s o f t h e 1977-1978 a c a d e m i c y e a r # .
As t h e b a s i c p r o c e -
d u r e was s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f t h e two p r e v i o u s t r a i n i n g s t u d i e s ( T a r t , 1 9 7 6 ; T a r t , Palmer, & Redington, 1979), 1 , w i l l o n l y o u t l i n e i t here. The s t u d e n t - e x p e r i m e n t e r s i n my e x p e r i m e n t a l p s y c h o l o g y c l a s s t e s t e d l a r g e . g r o u p s o f s t u d e n t s a t t h e D a v i s campus o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a i n c l a s s -
room s i t u a t i o n s .
The t e s t was a s i n g l e c l a i r v o y a n c e and s i n g l e GESP r u n w i t h
c a r d s , c o n d u c t e d i n t h e l a s t f e w m i n u t e s o f t h e class.
Students' responses
fa above chance
0
w e r e s c o r e d i n d i v i d u a l l y , a n d t h o s e s h o w i n g some s u g g e s t i o n s
s c o r i n g were asked t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n a second confirmation phase o f individual testing.
Here t h e y r e c e i v e d h a l f a d o z e n i n d i v i d u a l r u n s o f 2 0 t r i a l s e a c h
on o n e o f two t e n - c h o i c e The f i r s t t e n - c h o i c e
trainers. t r a i n e r was t h e Ten-Choice T r a i n e r (TCT) d e v i c e
used i n t h e f i r s t T r a i n i n g S t u d y ( T a r t , 1976). 1 0 u n l i t lamps w i t h a p u s h b u t t o n b e s i d e e a c h .
It consisted of a c i r c l e of
A s e p a r a t e r e a l t i m e RNG o f
T a r t -4 ~ \ c c t fiaic
t h e f i r o u l e t t e wheel type, a c t i v a t e d by t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r f o r e a c h t r i a l , generated a single target.
T h i s t a r g e t was t h e n t r a n s f e r r e d t o t h e s e n d e r ' s TCT
c o n t r o l console through a t i m e delayed system t h a t provided uniform timing between trials.
The p e r c i p i e n t i n d i c a t e d h i s c a l l b y p u s h i n g a r e s p o n s e b u t t o n
on h i s TCT c o n s o l e .
Immediate f e e d b a c k was p r o v i d e d by t h e c o r r e c t t a r g e t
l i g h t coming on i m m e d i a t e l y f o l l o w i n g e a c h r e s p o n s e .
T a r g e t and r e s p o n s e d a t a
w e r e r e c o r d e d by t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r . The Apple-ADElT t e n c h o i c e t r a i n i n g d e v i c e (A/ADEPT) was a more s o p h i s t i c a t e d v e r s i o n o f t h e TCT.
An A p p l e I1 m i c r o c o m p u t e r c o n t r o l l e d t h e func-
t i o n i n g o f t h e d i s p l a y a n d r e s p o n s e c o n s o l e s , as w e l l a s e l e c t r o n i c a l l y r e c o r d sli,htl i n g d a t a . From t h e p e r c i p i e n t ' s p o i n t o f view, t h e m a c h i n e s w e r e xis& d i f f e r e n t i n o n e l o o k i n g more p r o f e s s i o n a l t h a n t h e o t h e r , a l t h o u g h a r r a n g e d /
i n t h e same g e n e r a l manner, and t h e b a s i c t a s k o n e a c h was t o push t h e b u t t o n b e s i d e o n e o f t h e 1 0 u n l i t lamps t h a t c o r r e s p o n d e d t o t h e t a r g e t .
The A/ADEPT
s y s t e m u s e d h e r e u t i l i z e d t h e same d i s p l a y c o n s o l e s a s t h e ADEPT (Advanced Decimal E x t r a s e n s o r y P e r c e p t i o n T r a i n e r ) s y s t e m u s e d i n t h e s e c o n d T r a i n i n g S t u d y ( R e d i n g t o n & T a r t , 1976;
T a r t , Palmer,
& Redington,
1979). b u t r a t h e r
t h a n t h e s p e c i a l a n a l o g c i r c u i t s u s e d i n t h e o r i g i n a l ADEPT, t h e A p p l e I1 comp u t e r c o n t r o l l e d b o t h t a r g e t g e n e r a t i o n , c o n s o l e o p e r a t i o n , and d a t a s c o r i n g and s t o r a g e . The A p p l e I1 c o m p u t e r c o n t a i n s a t y p i c a l computer pseudo-random number generator.
A s e e d number i n t h e computer i s p r o c e s s e d b y a complex a l g o r h y t h m
on e a c h o c c a s i o n t h a t a random number i s r e q u e s t e d , and t h e a l g o r h y t h m p r e s e n t s t h e l a s t d i g i t o f t h e c o m p u t a t i o n a s a random o u t p u t . t h i s pseudo-random
Numerous t e s t i n g s o f
g e n e r a t o r i n b a t c h e s o f 1 0 , 0 0 0 o u t p u t s h a v e shown no s i g n i -
f i c a n t b i a s e s b y Chi-square
test a t t h e s i n g l e t , d o u b l e t , o r t r i p l e t l e v e l .
Our c o n t r o l program, d e v e l o p e d b y Dana J. R e d i n g t o n , t u r n e d t h e Apple 11 i n t o
a t r u e random g e n e r a t o r r a t h e r t h a n a pseudo-random g e n e r a t o r i n t h e f o l l o w i n g
Tart
-5
way.
The t i m e i n m i l l i s e c o n d s b e tween e a c h r e s p o n s e o f a p e r c i p i e n t was
m e a s u r e d , a n d t h i s h i g h l y v a r i a b l e v a l u e was u s e d t o p r o v i d e a b r a n d new s e e d f o r t h e A p p l e I1 pseudo-random g e n e r a t o r o n e v e r y s i n g l e t r i a l . ' Dana R e d i n g t o n f u r t h e r m o d i f i e d t h e A p p l e I1 c o n t r o l p r o g r a m , a t my r e q u e s t , i n t h e f o l l o w i n g manner.
During t h e i n i t i a l s e t u p o f e a c h run, 1 0
l e v e r p r e s s e s o n t h e ADEPT c o n t r o l c o n s o l e w e r e r e q u i r e d from t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r . T h e s e l e v e r p r e s s e s w e r e r a t h e r v a g u e l y d e s c r i b e d t o e x p e r i m e n t e r s as g e n e r a t i n g a series o f random numbers w h i c h s e t t h e i n i t i a l random p a r a m e t e r s f o r t h e A p p l e 11's random number g e n e r a t o r . a s e p a r a t e d e c i m a l e l e c t r o n i c RNG.
Actually, each lever p r e s s a c t i v a t e d
I f a n e v e n o u t p u t came u p o n t h e f i r s t
p r e s s , t h i s m e a n t t h a t t h e real t i m e t r u e RNG f u n c t i o n o f t h e A p p l e I1 was u s e d , a n d t h e o u t p u t o f t h e f o l l o w i n g n i n e l e v e r p r e s s e s was i g n o r e d b y t h e c o m p u t e r , a l t h o u g h t h e r e was no i n d i c a t i o n t o t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r t h a t t h e comp u t e r was n o t u s l n g a l l t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n .
I f a n odd o u t p u t came up o n t h i s
f i r s t l e v e r p r e s s , however, t h e A p p l e I1 c o m p u t e r t o o k t h i s as a n i n s t r u c t i o n t o d r a w t a r g e t s s e q u e n t i a l l y from a s t o r e d t a b l e o f 1 , 0 0 0 random d e c i m a l d i g i t s . 'Cl~cf o l l o w i n g n i n e l e v e r p r e s s e s , a c t i v a t i n g a d e c i m a l RNG, w e r e u s e d t o de-
t e r m i n e a t h r e e d i g i t s t a r t i n g p o i n t number f o r e n t e r i n g t h e s t o r e d t a b l e . Usually o n l y t h e second, t h i r d , and f o u r t h l e v e r p r e s s e s were necessary f o r t h i s , b u t w e ' d i d p r o g r a m i n t h e r e s t r i c t i o n t h a t t h e r e had t o b e a t l e a s t 30 numbers l e f t i n t h e t a b l e f r o m t h e e n t r y p o i n t :
i f t o o h i g h a number w e r e ac-
c i d e n t a l l y g e n e r a t e d o n t h e s e c o n d t h r o u g h f o u r t h l e v e r p r e s s e s , i t was r e j e c t e d and t h e l a t e r l e v e r p r e s s e s w e r e u s e d t o f i n d t h e e n t r y p o i n t .
The s t o r e d
t a b l e o f 1 , 0 0 0 d i g i t s i n t h e A p p l e I1 c o m p u t e r memory c o n s i s t e d o f s e q u e n t i a l s e l e c t i o n s from t h e RAND (1955) t a b l e o f random d i g i t s . i n t o t h e RAND t a b l e s was u s e d t o o b t a i n s u c h s e l e c t i o n s . was
A random e n t r y p o i n t This stored table
c o m p l e t e l y r e p l a c e d w i t h new s e l e c t i o n s from t h e RAND t a b l e s a t s e v e r a l
i r r e g u l a r i n t e r v a l s throughout t h e experiment t o minimize t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f any t a r g e t sequence r e p e a t i n g a n earlier t a r g e t sequence.
T a r t -6 None o f t h e s t u d e n t e x p e r i m e n t e r s who a c t u a l l y worked w i t h p e r c i p i e n t s nowledge a b o u t t h e e x a c t f u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e RNG o r n randomly c h o s e t o u s e t h e ' r e a l t i m e o f t h e m ~ d i f ~ c a t i owhich o r t h e s t o r e d t a r g e t numbers o n a n y p a r t i c u l a r r u n .
RNG
I , Dana R e d i n g t o n , and
Henry B e n n e t t , my t e a c h i n g a s s i s t a n t f o r t h e c l a s s , knew o f t h i s m o d i f i c a t i o n , b u t we s p o k e t o no s t u d e n t e x p e r i m e n t e r s o r p e r c i p i e n t s a b o u t i t , t h u s hopef u l l y minimizing
ljkt
experimenter i n f l u e n c e here.
The t h e o r y t h a t immediate f e e d b a c k t r a i n i n g o u g h t t o e n h a n c e p s i p e r formance i n t a l e n t e d s u b j e c t s ( T a r t , 1966b; 1977) r e q u i r e s t h a t p e r c i p i e n t s show some i n i t i a l ESP t a l e n t on t h i s p a r t i c u l a r t y p e o f r e p e a t e d g u e s s i n g t a s k b e f o r e beginning t r a i n i n g i f feedback i s expected t o b e e f f e c t i v e .
As, i t
t u r n e d o u t , ' t h e s e q u e n t i a l s a m p l i n g p r o c e d u r e o f g r o u p s e l e c t i o n p h a s e s and i n d i v i d u a l ' confirmation phases d i d n o t t a i n s i g n s o f ESP t a l e n t .
p e r c i . p i e n t s who 'showed a n y c e r -
Because o f t h e e d u c a t i o n a l o b l i g a t i o n t o my s t u d e n t
e x p e r i m e n t e r s , however, I e n c o u r a g e d them t o u s e a n y s u g g e s t i v e s i g n s o f ES-P i n p e r c i p i e n t s ' Confirmation Study s c o r e s a s c r i t e r i a f o r s e l e c t i n g p e r c i p i e n t s and w o r k i n g w i t h them t h r o u g h t h e T r a i n i n g S t u d y p r o p e r .
While I had t h e im-
p r e s s i o n t h a t we w e r e s c r a p i n g t h e b o t t o m o f t h e b a r r e l t h i s way, I d e l i b e r a t e l y r e f r a i n e d from l o o k i n g t o o c l o s e l y a t C o n f i r m a t i o n S t u d y s c o r e s a t t h e t i m e i n o r d e r t o t r y t o a v o i d a f e e l i n g o f d i s a p p o i n t m e n t i n m y s e l f , a f e e l i n g which m i g h t t r a n s f e r on t o t h e s t u d e n t e x p e r i m e n t e r s and i n h i b i t r e s u l t s . From af C b C o n f l i n t - G ' o q Study, l a t e r s c o r i n g h however, i t i s c l e a r t h a t , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e l e a r n i n g t h e o r y a p p l i c a t i o n , no r e a l r e s u l t s s h o u l d have been e x p e c t e d from t h e t h i r d T r a i n i n g Study.
I d e a l l y , t h e t h i r d T r a i n i n g S t u d y s h o u l d n o t have been c a r r i e d o u t :
r a t h e r , e f f o r t s s h o u l d have b e e n p u t i n t o f u r t h e r S e l e c t i o n and C o n f i r m a t i o n Studies to find talented percipients.
The academic o b l i g a t i o n t o c o m p l e t e
t h e s t u d e n t e x p e ' r i m e n t e r s ' e d u c a t i o n , however, d i c t a t e d t h a t t h e T r a i n i n g S t u d y b e completed.
Thus 14 p e r c i p i e n t s completed 20 r u n s o f 20 t r i a l s e a c h .
Nine
'
T a r t -7 o f ' t h e s e p e r c i p i e n t s worked o n t h e AIADEPT t r a i n i n g d e v i c e and s i x worked on t h e TCT.
One p e r c i p i e n t d i d n o t q u i t e complete h i s planned series b u t h i s
r e s u l t s were added i n t o t h e t o t a l anyway f o r completeness. I n terms o f t h e q u e s t i o n o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l e q u i v a l e n c e o f r e a l time RNGs v e r s u s s t o r e d t a r g e t s , t h e n , what w e have i n t h i s e x p e r i m e n t are condi-
t i o n s t h a t i n some ways are a l i k e .
I n e v e r y t r i a l , on e i t h e r t h e TCT o r t h e
AIADEPT, t h e real time t a r g e t c o n s i s t s o f a s i g n a l lamp l i t on t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r 1 s e n d e r ' s c o n s o l e , p l u s a second d i s p l a y o f t h e same t a r g e t i n n u m e r i c a l form, e i t h e r o n t h e LED d i s p l a y o f t h e TCT'S RNG o r on t h e TV s c r e e n r e a d o u t o f t h e Apple 11's program, p l u s a n e l e c t r o n i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e t a r g e t i n t h e TCT R N G ' s o r Apple 11's e l e c t r o n i c c i r c u i t s .
In the case of stored targets,
however, a l l t h e f u t u r e t a r g e t s i n a g i v e n r u n a l s o e x i s t i n real time i n terms o f e l e c t r o n i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n t h e Apple 11's c i r c u i t r y . Results : /
As a group, t h e 1 5 p e r c i p i e n t s d i d n o t show a n y e v i d e n c e f o r ESP f u n c t i o n i n g i n terms o f h i t t i n g on t h e i n t e n d e d , real t i m e t a r g e t .
They made 609 h i t s
when 591.3 were e x p e c t e d by chance, c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a n i n s i g n i f i c a n t Z-score of
+
-77,
One i n d i v i d u a l p e r c i p i e n t s c o r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y above chance (53
h i t s when 4 0 were e x p e c t e d by chance, P Z . 0 3 ,
2-tailed),
b u t t h i s is probably
n o t s i g n i f i c a n t when 15 i n d i v i d u a l s i g n i f i c a n c e tests were conducted.
There
were no s u g g e s t i o n s o f s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s (by t - t e s t ) between t h e TCT and A/ADEPT d e v i c e s , o r between t h e real time RNG v e r s u s s t o r e d t a r g e t condit i o n s o f t h e AIADEPT. The p r i n c i p a l h y p o t h e s i s o f a s c o r i n g d i f f e r e n c e on +1 f u t u r e d i s p l a c e m e n t s c o r i n g between real t i m e and s t o r e d t a r g e t s was t e s t e d i n two ways.
First,
t h e real t i m e and s t o r e d c o n d i t i o n s on t h e AIADEPT were compared by a t-test between t h e s t a n d a r d 2 - s c o r e s o f e a c h p e r c i p i e n t on +1 s c o r i n g .
The mean Z-
s c o r e f o r real t i m e RNG t a r g e t s was -013, w h i l e f o r s t o r e d t a r g e t s i t was +.78, t = 2.11,
Pz.06,
2-tailed.
Second, t h e RNG c o n d i t i o n s on t h e TCT and AIADEPT
T a r t -8 a r e e s s e n t i a l l y e q u i v a l e n t , s o t h o s e d a t a were combined f o r a more s e n s i t i v e t e s t of real d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h a l a r g e r d a t a b a s e .
The mean 2 - s c o r e f o r s c o r i n g
o n +1 d i s p l a c e m e n t s w i t h t h e real t i m e RNG c h a n g e s t r i v i a l l y t o 0.06, and f o r t h e c o m p a r i s o n , t = 2.34,
Pc.05,
2-tailed.
Discussion The p r e s e n t s t u d y i s l i m i t e d , f i r s t i n b e i n g o n l y a s i n g l e s t u d y , and second i n n o t h a v i n g a n y s i g n i f i c a n t amount o f ESP o c c u r r i n g i n i t o v e r a l l by conventional scoring.
With l i t t l e o r no a p p a r e n t ESP m a n i f e s t i n g on t h e in-
t e n d e d r e a l t i m e t a r g e t s , t h e e f f e c t s o f t r a n s - t e m p o r a l i n h i b i t i o n on t h e hyp o t h e s i z e d n o n - e q u i v a l e n c e of real t i m e RNG and s t o r e d t a r g e t c o n d i t i o n s m i g h t b e m i n i m a l o r non-exis t e n t .
N e v e r t h e l e s s , a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e was found
on +1 p r e c o g n i t i v e s c o r i n g , and t h e s t u d y s t r o n g l y s u g g e s t s t h a t s t o r e d random number t a r g e t s and t a r g e t s g e n e r a t e d by r e a l t i m e RNG are n o t e q u i v a l e n t exp e r i m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s i n t e r m s o f t h e way p s i works.
I n s p i t e o f t h e con-
v e n i e n c e s t h a t m i g h t be g a i n e d i n some e x p e r i m e n t s by r o u t i n e l y u s i n g s t o r e d t a r g e t s t h e n , I would s u g g e s t t h a t t h i s i s a more complex m a t t e r t h a n we t h i n k and o n e w a r r a n t i n g f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n b e f o r e s t o r e d t a r g e t l i s t s become a standard o p e r a t i n g procedure.
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