Astra Industrial Group
December 2014
Investment update - 2014
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Investment Synopsis Following the (i) increase in political uncertainty in Iraq; where, (i) notable decline in prices of benchmark crude oil and (iii) drop in steel prices due to Chinese slowdown and decline in prices of iron ore; we believe it will be a big challenge for Astra to achieve its operational targets in Iraq - at least in medium term, where, long-term is still uncertain. Consequently, we adjust our financial estimates, accordingly, and revised down our 12-month price target but, maintain our ‘Overweight’ recommendation for the stock; which is mainly due to the recent decline in the prices of stock.
N ew 1 2 - m onth price ta rget
SA R 4 2 . 4
Old 12-month price target
SAR 80.6
N ew recom m end a tion
“ O v erweight”
Old recommend ation
“ Overw eight”
Explanations Iraqi steel plant - uncertainty increased following rise in political tension; our last positive revision in the company’s valuation and financial estimates was mainly due to our optimistic view on the complex outlook on the back of the local government’s commitment to rebuild war torn country. However, unfortunately, the sudden rise in political turmoil (during Q2-2014) raised severe concerns on the country’s developmental plans and, obviously, on the other hand, on the sustainability of foreign investment located in the country. Initially, we were bullish on Iraq and expecting the country to overcome issues but; by the time of writing this report, we have not seen any significant development. Moreover, the company has not revealed any contingency plan for its Iraqi project. We, therefore, revised our view and, accordingly, limit the contribution from the plant in Astra’s future revenues to 5.4% in 2015 and 12.0% (on average during 2015-17) - compared to our previous estimated average contribution of more than 40.0% during the similar period. However, fixed cost from the steel complex will be there which has led us to make downward revision in the company’s net profitability.
Operational facts about steel plant • Started commercially in Q4-2013; and remained out of operation for 30 days in Q1-2014 due to fire incident on one of its smelter furnace. • Total designed capacity to produce 435,000 tons of steel billets which is used to fabricate 350,000 tons of steel bars. • Steel scrap is a major input for the plant; where, the cost of the feedstock is negligible. • Iraq is the key target market for the plant • According to a press release, the complex’s fixed cost is around SAR16mn per month (of which SAR5mn is depreciation).
Key financial data SARmn; (unless specified) Revenues
2013
2014e
2015e
2016e
2017e
2023e
1,772
1,930
2,015
2,131
2,182
2,889
18.4%
8.9%
4.4%
5.7%
2.4%
4.4%
253
124
136
183
211
529
4.3%
-51.1%
9.8%
34.4%
15.8%
13.6%
3.4
1.7
1.8
2.5
2.9
7.5
EBITDA margins
12.6%
10.4%
11.1%
12.4%
12.9%
19.4%
Net margins
14.3%
6.4%
6.7%
8.6%
9.7%
18.3%
RoAE
13.54%
6.74%
7.64%
10.28%
11.66%
17.80%
RoAA
7.00%
3.32%
3.54%
4.66%
5.25%
10.08%
PE (x)
15.5
19.6
17.8
13.3
11.4
4.4
PBV (x)
2.1
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
0.7
Revenues growth - YoY Net income Net income growth - YoY EPS (SAR)
Source: Annual reports and Aljazira Capital
Senior Analyst
Syed Taimure Akhtar
[email protected] +966 11 2256146
1
© All rights reserved
Astra Industrial Group
December 2014
Investment update - 2014
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Benchmark oil price – negative price trend; the drop in Brent crude oil by 45.4% (47.2% in WTI) to USD61.05/ bbl 1 ( WTI; USD55.9/bbl) from Jun-14 closing prices - Brent oil USD111.8/bbl; WTI oil USD105.8/bbl - also a significant threat to the developments in Iraq; where, the break-even price for Iraq is around USD100.6/bbl 2 . We believe (even if there will be some relaxation in political turmoil; in near term) the current prices of crude oil will lead Iraqi government to slow down its developmental activities and public sector expenditures Decline in steel price; a dilemma; according to World Economic Outlook Oct-14 3, Chinese economy is expected to grow by 7.4% in 2014 and 7.1% in 2015; as compared to a growth of 7.7% in 2013. This indicates a slowdown in the said economy; where, according to Bloomberg, the ease in economic growth is mainly associated with the policies of new Chinese government. The statement in Bloomberg further indicated that the impact of policies of the government is emphasizing more on long-term conservative growth. But, this will continue to hurt the demand in short to medium term. On the other hand, the prices of steel bar (rebar) indicated YTD decline of 16.1% to USD520.2/tonne in Dec-14.
YoY growth Source: Bloomberg
-1.8% -1.9%
-1.9%
-6.2%
-9.7%
0.0%
Growth
5.0%
-5.0% -10.0%
Steel price per tonne (USD/ton)
Dec-14
Steel d em a nd (0 0 0 tons)
-10.0%
100.0 -
-1.7%
Oct-14
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-7.1%
200.0
0.9%
Nov-14
-7.9%-5.0%
-1.7%
-0.2%
Sep-14
0.0%
300.0
0.8% -0.9%
Jul-14
-1.4%
100, 000 -
5.0%
3.2%
-2.0%
Aug-14
200, 000
5.9%
400.0
Jun-14
2.6%
10.0%
8.1%
Apr-14
10.4%
10.0%
500.0
May-14
300, 000
15.0%
15.0%
600.0
Feb-14
12.2%
400, 000
20.0%
2014- Monthly price performance
18.6%
Mar-14
500, 000
700.0
2013
20.0% Growth
Steel d em a nd in ' 0 0 0 ' tons
25.0%
Jan-14
25.0%
600, 000
25.0%
800.0
2012
30.0%
2011
700, 000
Price performance (USD/tonne) – Steel Rebars
Steel prices USD/tonne
Chinese steel demand – Apparent consumption
-15.0%
YoY growth Source: Bloomberg
Investment recommendation We, in line with the updates (mentioned above), revised our financial estimates for the company and expect the company to show 51٫1% decline in 2014 net profitability. However, we assume the company’s profitability to resume its positive trend from 2016 onwards. On valuation front, we increase the risk premium of Iraq to 10.0% (from 7.75%) but reduce the company’s exposure to the risk mainly due to (i) cut in income stream from the project and (ii) incorporation of fixed cost from the steel complex (i.e. minimum cost the company has to bear in any case). In addition, we also adjust the company’s capital structure in accordance with Q3-2014 financials. The consolidated effect of the mentioned amendments leads us to make downward revision in our 12-month price target of SAR42.4/share. But, maintain our ‘Overweight’ recommendation, primarily, due to a sharp decline of 35.4% in stock market prices (since 01 st Oct 2014) to SAR32.7/share (as of 22 nd Dec 2014); indicating a potential upside of 29.7%.
2
1
Closing as of 15 th Dec 2014
2
http://graphics.wsj.com/lists/opec-meeting
3
IMF: international monetary fund
© All rights reserved
RESEARCH DIVISION BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION
Senior Analyst
Analyst
Abdullah Alawi
Syed Taimure Akhtar
Sultan Al Kadi
+966 11 2256250
[email protected] +966 11 2256146
[email protected] +966 11 2256374
[email protected] Senior Analyst
Analyst
Analyst
Talha Nazar
Saleh Al-Quati
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256115
[email protected] +966 11 2256046
[email protected] +966 11 2256248
[email protected] General manager - brokerage services and sales
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
Ala’a Al-Yousef
brokerage
Brokerage
+966 11 2256000
[email protected] Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256277
[email protected] +966 12 6618400
[email protected] AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Samer Al- Joauni
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547
[email protected] +966 1 225 6352
[email protected] +966 11 2256364
[email protected] AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
AGM - Head of Research
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
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