CC & Industrial Production
CC & Industrial Production
SF Sustainability Summer School 2009
[email protected]
Industrialization: A Process of Structural Change
Updated (USDOC) from Kuznets, 1971
[email protected]
World – Growth in Industrial Output and Trade (1913=100) + + + + +
Index of world trade
+ +
[email protected]
1
[email protected]
[email protected]
Per Capita Materials (Tons/year) Mobilization (log scale) 100
Abraum, Abfälle, Erdbewegung, etc. Baumaterialien, Inland
90 80
Overburden, wastes Constr. Materials Products Minerals, metals Fuels Biomass (domestic+ imports)
Fertigprodukte, Handel
70 60
Mineralien&Metalle, Handel
50
Mineralien&Metalle,Inland
40
Brennstoffe, Handel
30
Brennstoffe, Inland
20
Biomasse, Handel
10
Biomasse, Inland
0
Deutschland
Österreich
USA
Source: Adriaanse et al. (1997), W. Hüttler et al. (1996), Wagner & Nötstaller (1997).
[email protected]
2
Industrial Growth: Key Concepts Output Growth (old AND new products) relies on: • • • •
Economies of Scale Standardization Increasing Returns Technological Change (new materials/processes/products) leading to:
Cost Reductions [email protected]
Growth of Mass Production/Consumption 1950-1990
[email protected]
Increasing Scale (Steel Plants) →Economies of Scale
Source: Rosegger, 1996.
[email protected]
3
Standardization
“You can paint it any color, so long as it's black “ (attributed to Henry Ford) [email protected]
Improved Economics: Prices vs. Costs Ford Model T 5
log (1993$/car)
Prices y = -0.214x + 3.8738 R2 = 0.9765 4
Costs y = -0.1194x + 3.6024 R2 = 0.733 3 -2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
log (cum. production, million)
Source: Based on Abernathy&Ward, 1975 [email protected]
Costs Improve via TC (German Steel Production Process Change)
Recycled steel!
[email protected]
4
Germany – Steel Prices (Current and Constant Mark/Ton)
Impact of Puddel and Bessemer
[email protected]
Social Implications • Higher labor productivity • Rising wages • Reduced working time Mass production → mass consumption → “leisure class” (Veblen)
[email protected]
Manufacturing Labor Productivity
[email protected]
5
Growth in Real Wages Source: Phelps Brown, 1973.
[email protected]
Reductions in Working Time (hours per year) 3,000
2,700
Hours
2,400
Japan 2,100
France
1,800
UK
USA
Germany
1,500 Data: Maddison, 1991 1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
[email protected]
Changing Time Budgets (Gershuny, 1991).
[email protected]
6
Environmental Implications • Amplification of traditional impacts (output growth related) • Novel impacts (DDT, CFCs,…) • Point-source (industrial plants) impacts amplified by disperse consumption and end-of-life impacts • But moderated by increased “decoupling” (relative “dematerialization”) [email protected]
Global Materials Mobilization Billion tons per year. AD 2000
Fossil energy
Metals
Industrial raw materials
Constr. materials
Earth moved
Food & fibers
Total
Mining/ harvesting
10
>5
2.5
~16
--
>5
>40
Overburden, wastes
>20
>15?
1
>50
100
Source: Argawal (1991), Grübler (2001), Nötstaller (1998).
[email protected]
World - Production (left) and Emissions (right, /1000) of Metals 4.5 Kupfer copper Blei lead Zink zinc
Produktion Production
4.0 3.5
60
3.0 2.5
40
2.0 1.5
20
1.0 0.5
0 18
Emissionen Emissions
90 −1 50
Emissionen (Tausend Tonnen) Emissions (1000 tons)
Produktion (Millionen Tonnen) Production (Million tons)
80
0 0 19
91 −1 01
0 19
− 11
2 19
0 19
93 −1 21
0 3 19
1−
40 19 19
95 −1 41
0 19
96 −1 51
0 19
97 −1 61
0 7 19
1−
80 19 19
0 99 −1 81
Quelle: J.O. Nriagu, 1996 Source: J.O. Nriagu (1996)
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7
Industrial CO2 Emissions vs. per capita Value Added
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CC & Industrial Production
[email protected]
World Final Energy Use 1971-2005
Industry largest user, with largest emissions growth (but great spatial heterogeneity!)
Source: LBL, 2008.
[email protected]
8
Industry: GtCO2 (incl. electricity)
[email protected]
Industrial Emissions Reductions • Inherent incentive structure for cost minimization (=responsive to price signals, akin homo oeconomicus) • Locus for innovation and entrepreneur-ship (within sector but also across [spillovers]) • Globalized (=can/does relocate, potential emissions “leakage”) • Rel. importance (employment, GDP) declines with success (productivity growth) [email protected]
Typical Pattern of Improvement Potentials in Industry (IPCC AR4 WGII Ch7.p465)
[email protected]
9
Estimated 2030 CO2 Emission Reduction Potentials (IPCC AR4 WGII Ch7.p474)
[email protected]
Free Lunches and Take-backs • Efficiency improvements (AEEIs) • Miniaturization, light-weight • Material substitution • New demands (e-commerce) • Higher service quality, comfort and safety • Changes in consumer behavior [email protected]
[email protected]
10
[email protected]
Material Composition of Avg US Car 1800
1600
1400
1200
Weight (kg)
Other materials Fluids & lubricants
1000
Powder metal parts Zinc die castings Copper
800
Glass Plastics/composites
600
Rubber Aluminum Iron
400
Stainless Steel High Strength Steel Conventional Steel
200
0 1978
1985
Year
2001
DOE, 2001
[email protected]
US Refrigerators: Size, Costs, and Energy Efficiency
Source: US NRC, 2001 based on Goldstein & Geller, 1999.
Source: OTA, 1991.
[email protected]
11
Energy Implications of Book Retailing
Source: Kapur based on Matthews et al., 2002
Percent Change since 1970 in US Automobile CO2 Emissions and Driving Forces
[email protected]
Supporting Material
[email protected]
12
5 Industrialization Clusters: Technology Dimensions
[email protected]
5 Industrialization Clusters: Organizational/Spatial Dimensions
[email protected]
US Materials Intensity (rel. Dematerialization) (Data: Wernick, 1996)
Isolines of –3%/yr (GDP growth rate)
[email protected]
13
USA – Absolute Materials Use (cumulative) 300 &plastics &paper &fertilizer &metals wood
Million Tons
250
200
150
100
50
0 1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: adapted from Wernick & Ausubel (1995).
Price vs. Concentration of Materials
[email protected]
14
SF Sustainability Summer School 2009
[email protected]
Industrialization: A Process of Structural Change
Updated (USDOC) from Kuznets, 1971
[email protected]
World – Growth in Industrial Output and Trade (1913=100) + + + + +
Index of world trade
+ +
[email protected]
1
[email protected]
[email protected]
Per Capita Materials (Tons/year) Mobilization (log scale) 100
Abraum, Abfälle, Erdbewegung, etc. Baumaterialien, Inland
90 80
Overburden, wastes Constr. Materials Products Minerals, metals Fuels Biomass (domestic+ imports)
Fertigprodukte, Handel
70 60
Mineralien&Metalle, Handel
50
Mineralien&Metalle,Inland
40
Brennstoffe, Handel
30
Brennstoffe, Inland
20
Biomasse, Handel
10
Biomasse, Inland
0
Deutschland
Österreich
USA
Source: Adriaanse et al. (1997), W. Hüttler et al. (1996), Wagner & Nötstaller (1997).
[email protected]
2
Industrial Growth: Key Concepts Output Growth (old AND new products) relies on: • • • •
Economies of Scale Standardization Increasing Returns Technological Change (new materials/processes/products) leading to:
Cost Reductions [email protected]
Growth of Mass Production/Consumption 1950-1990
[email protected]
Increasing Scale (Steel Plants) →Economies of Scale
Source: Rosegger, 1996.
[email protected]
3
Standardization
“You can paint it any color, so long as it's black “ (attributed to Henry Ford) [email protected]
Improved Economics: Prices vs. Costs Ford Model T 5
log (1993$/car)
Prices y = -0.214x + 3.8738 R2 = 0.9765 4
Costs y = -0.1194x + 3.6024 R2 = 0.733 3 -2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
log (cum. production, million)
Source: Based on Abernathy&Ward, 1975 [email protected]
Costs Improve via TC (German Steel Production Process Change)
Recycled steel!
[email protected]
4
Germany – Steel Prices (Current and Constant Mark/Ton)
Impact of Puddel and Bessemer
[email protected]
Social Implications • Higher labor productivity • Rising wages • Reduced working time Mass production → mass consumption → “leisure class” (Veblen)
[email protected]
Manufacturing Labor Productivity
[email protected]
5
Growth in Real Wages Source: Phelps Brown, 1973.
[email protected]
Reductions in Working Time (hours per year) 3,000
2,700
Hours
2,400
Japan 2,100
France
1,800
UK
USA
Germany
1,500 Data: Maddison, 1991 1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
[email protected]
Changing Time Budgets (Gershuny, 1991).
[email protected]
6
Environmental Implications • Amplification of traditional impacts (output growth related) • Novel impacts (DDT, CFCs,…) • Point-source (industrial plants) impacts amplified by disperse consumption and end-of-life impacts • But moderated by increased “decoupling” (relative “dematerialization”) [email protected]
Global Materials Mobilization Billion tons per year. AD 2000
Fossil energy
Metals
Industrial raw materials
Constr. materials
Earth moved
Food & fibers
Total
Mining/ harvesting
10
>5
2.5
~16
--
>5
>40
Overburden, wastes
>20
>15?
1
>50
100
Source: Argawal (1991), Grübler (2001), Nötstaller (1998).
[email protected]
World - Production (left) and Emissions (right, /1000) of Metals 4.5 Kupfer copper Blei lead Zink zinc
Produktion Production
4.0 3.5
60
3.0 2.5
40
2.0 1.5
20
1.0 0.5
0 18
Emissionen Emissions
90 −1 50
Emissionen (Tausend Tonnen) Emissions (1000 tons)
Produktion (Millionen Tonnen) Production (Million tons)
80
0 0 19
91 −1 01
0 19
− 11
2 19
0 19
93 −1 21
0 3 19
1−
40 19 19
95 −1 41
0 19
96 −1 51
0 19
97 −1 61
0 7 19
1−
80 19 19
0 99 −1 81
Quelle: J.O. Nriagu, 1996 Source: J.O. Nriagu (1996)
[email protected]
7
Industrial CO2 Emissions vs. per capita Value Added
[email protected]
CC & Industrial Production
[email protected]
World Final Energy Use 1971-2005
Industry largest user, with largest emissions growth (but great spatial heterogeneity!)
Source: LBL, 2008.
[email protected]
8
Industry: GtCO2 (incl. electricity)
[email protected]
Industrial Emissions Reductions • Inherent incentive structure for cost minimization (=responsive to price signals, akin homo oeconomicus) • Locus for innovation and entrepreneur-ship (within sector but also across [spillovers]) • Globalized (=can/does relocate, potential emissions “leakage”) • Rel. importance (employment, GDP) declines with success (productivity growth) [email protected]
Typical Pattern of Improvement Potentials in Industry (IPCC AR4 WGII Ch7.p465)
[email protected]
9
Estimated 2030 CO2 Emission Reduction Potentials (IPCC AR4 WGII Ch7.p474)
[email protected]
Free Lunches and Take-backs • Efficiency improvements (AEEIs) • Miniaturization, light-weight • Material substitution • New demands (e-commerce) • Higher service quality, comfort and safety • Changes in consumer behavior [email protected]
[email protected]
10
[email protected]
Material Composition of Avg US Car 1800
1600
1400
1200
Weight (kg)
Other materials Fluids & lubricants
1000
Powder metal parts Zinc die castings Copper
800
Glass Plastics/composites
600
Rubber Aluminum Iron
400
Stainless Steel High Strength Steel Conventional Steel
200
0 1978
1985
Year
2001
DOE, 2001
[email protected]
US Refrigerators: Size, Costs, and Energy Efficiency
Source: US NRC, 2001 based on Goldstein & Geller, 1999.
Source: OTA, 1991.
[email protected]
11
Energy Implications of Book Retailing
Source: Kapur based on Matthews et al., 2002
Percent Change since 1970 in US Automobile CO2 Emissions and Driving Forces
[email protected]
Supporting Material
[email protected]
12
5 Industrialization Clusters: Technology Dimensions
[email protected]
5 Industrialization Clusters: Organizational/Spatial Dimensions
[email protected]
US Materials Intensity (rel. Dematerialization) (Data: Wernick, 1996)
Isolines of –3%/yr (GDP growth rate)
[email protected]
13
USA – Absolute Materials Use (cumulative) 300 &plastics &paper &fertilizer &metals wood
Million Tons
250
200
150
100
50
0 1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: adapted from Wernick & Ausubel (1995).
Price vs. Concentration of Materials
[email protected]
14
