Climate Change and Transport Presentation to Road Network ...
Climate Change and Transport Presentation to Road Network Management Conference June 2008
Today’s presentation
The basics of climate change What is causing climate change? The Stern Report Carbon Emissions and Transport Statistics Draft Climate Change Bill and EU proposals Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy (LCTIS) The King Reports What can we do? Peak Oil
The basics of climate change
The basics of climate change
The basics of climate change
The basics of climate change
The basics of climate change
Climate Change - Some Background…. Relationship between man made emissions and temperature rise first put forward in 1980s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) formed in 1988 Published 4 Assessment Reports, latest in 2007 Increasing certainty over time Climate change is real and is a threat
CO2 levels Atmospheric concentration 2005 379ppm, Pre-industrial 280ppm Rate of increase is accelerating 2008 387ppm Levels far exceed those from last 650,000 years between 1995 and 2005 CO2 levels increased by 1.9 ppm per annum Climate change to date Temp: 1906-2005, +0.74C, increase is accelerating Sea Level 1900-2005, +250mm, increase is accelerating
Climate Change Outcomes - IPCC By 2095, estimates are: temperatures will be 1.1C-6.4C higher than 1990 Sea level will be 0.18m-0.59m higher than 1990 IPCC ‘Headline’ Scenario CO2 concentrations must peak at 450ppm emissions must reduce between 2000 and 2015 CO2 emissions in 2050 must be between 50% and 85% lower globally than in 2000 Projected impacts of climate change Poorest countries suffer most
Global CO2 Emissions, Fossil Fuels, 1990-2004 Global CO2 Emissions 29,000,000
27,000,000
tonnes ('000)
25,000,000
23,000,000
21,000,000
19,000,000
17,000,000
15,000,000 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
rest of world
Saudi Arabia
Australia
Ukraine
Spain
Brazil
France
Indonesia
Iran
South Africa
Mexico
Italy
South Korea
United Kingdom
Canada
Germany
Japan
India
Russia
China
United States
tonnes ('000)
CO2 Emissions by Country – Fossil Fuel Burning Total CO2 Emissions by Country, 2004
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
Saudi Arabia
Australia
Ukraine
Spain
Brazil
France
Indonesia
Iran
South Africa
Mexico
Italy
South Korea
United Kingdom
Canada
Germany
Japan
India
Russia
China
United States
tonnes / person 25 emissions / head
20 600
15 500
10 400
300
5 200
100
-
tonnes / $m GDP
Top 20 Emitters: Emissions / head & GDP CO2 Emissions By Country, 2004 900
emissions / gdp
800
700
What does it take to have a cup of coffee in a café?
The combined efforts of 29 companies in 18 countries
Global Growth Projections Cars: Present day – 600m 2050 – 1,100m in China & India alone Population: 6,700m (2008) → 9,220m (2075) Economy: Global growth of a factor of 3-4 by 2050 Major future energy pressures from the developed and developing world
Greenhouse Gases Water vapour Gases due to Carbon dioxide human activity Methane, Nitrous oxide, Halocarbons, Ozone, And several others present in small amounts
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Greenhouse Gas Statistics - The Future Contribution
The Stern Report
Action is needed to contain emissions and to bring forward technologies that can deliver more costeffective carbon reduction in the future If unchecked, climate change could shrink global economies by 20% Radical cuts are needed in the medium to long term It may be cost effective for domestic transport to abate carbon emissions by around 40-60% in 2050 compared with 1990 levels. Addressing the problems of climate change would cost less than 1% of global GDP
The Stern Report
The Stern Report Climate change is occurring It is attributable to the increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere There needs to be an increasingly stringent regulatory environment to reduce CO2 emissions “The climate change we expect in the next 30-40 years will be due to our past greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change later this century will be determined by the emissions we allow now”
tr an sp or t
W as te
In d
io ns
ia l
di sp os al
pr oc es se s
fu el s
sh ip pi ng
se
en t
fu el u
fr om
an d
us tr ia l
em is s
ry
R es id
ft an d
tre at m en t
Fu gi tiv e
fo re st
ai rc ra
an d
M ili ta ry
A gr ic ul tu re
O th er C om -t ra m ns er po ci al rt an d in st itu tio na l
R oa d
En er M gy an in uf du ac st tu rie ri ng s & co ns tr uc tio n
UK CO2 Emissions by Sector UK CO2 Emissions by Sector, 2006
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Carbon dioxide emissions for transport
Carbon dioxide emissions for road transport
Carbon Modelling - Impact of low carbon technologies
HOL/HOC Jt Committee on the Draft Climate Change Bill – Delaying Action
New car average emissions
Climate Change – The UK Programme
Draft UK Climate Change Bill Aims to reduce CO2 emissions below 1990 baseline levels by 26-32% by 2020 60% by 2050 Government hinting this target may need to be increased to 80% by 2050 Targets exclude international aviation travel
Regulatory Context Climate change bill Royal assent expected in Summer 2008 setting a 2050 target for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions “the net UK carbon account for the year 2050 is at least 60% lower than the 1990 baseline” to provide for a system of carbon budgeting to confer powers to establish trading schemes
http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2007-08/climatechangehl.html
Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy (LCTIS) Published by DfT in May 2007 Fourfold approach Technologies for Road Sector Car Fuel Efficiency Objectives Technologies for Aviation Sector Policy Implementation
LCTIS – Fourfold approach “Creating a stronger incentive framework for lower carbon transport technologies” Carbon price signals Other market-based and regulatory approaches Research, development and demonstration of technology projects Better information on carbon impacts and lower carbon options
LCTIS – Technologies for Road Sector Short termImprovements to diesel and petrol engines New and emerging lightweight materials Hybrid electric and petrol/diesel engines First generation biofuels
Longer termPlug-in hybrids Fully electric vehicles Second generation biofuels Hydrogen powered vehicles and fuel cells
LCTIS – Car Fuel Efficiency Objectives EU intention to replace voluntary agreements with a new legislative framework to deliver average new car fuel efficiency of 130 gms of CO2 per km by 2012. UK Government announced in the 2007 Budget its long term objective of cutting average new car emissions to 100 gms CO2 per km.
LCTIS – Policy Implementation Mandatory car fuel efficiency targets Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) Communications campaign Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation Mode shift program –supporting rail and water Logistics efficiency program – Safe and Fuel Efficient Driving Scheme (SAFED)
The Julia King Review of Low-Carbon Cars (April 2008) “to examine the vehicle and fuel technologies that over the next 25 years could help to decarbonise road transport particularly cars” Part 1 The potential for CO2 reductions Part 2 Policy recommendations
The King Review – key findings compared to 2000 levels of traffic and carbon emissions By 2030 50% reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre 30% overall reduction in emissions By 2050 90% reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre 80% overall reduction in emissions
The King Review – potential solutions Cleaner fuels – biofuels, zero-carbon electricity, hydrogen More efficient vehicles – enhancements to conventional vehicles, introducing hybrid and electric battery technologies Smart driver choices – purchasing low-emission technologies, pumped-up tyres, acceleration control, car-driver journey avoidance
The King Report - Conclusions “….in the long term (2050 in the developed world), almost complete de-carbonisation of road transport is a realistic ambition. If: substantial progress can be made in solving electric or other innovative vehicle and fuel technology challenges and, critically the power sector can be decarbonised and expanded to supply a large proportion of road transport demand
What can we do –achieving Climate Change targets Behavioural change – travel volumes and modal choices – in terms of the scale of change required Would require dramatic and unpalatable measures Can have an effect at the margin Technological change – improvements in vehicle efficiency and use of alternative fuels UK Government assumptions are for 90%+ of the required cuts to come from technology
What can we do? Understand that it is politically unacceptable to tell people that they must travel less Transport for Sustainable Communities – providing access locally to essential services Fiscal and regulatory measures to encourage technology changes
What can we do? – the context of the key transport issues Supporting the economy Reducing traffic congestion Traffic impact on the environment including carbon emissions, noise and pollution Place-making and the design of our streets Accessibility to essential services including employment opportunities, health and education Travel safety
What can we do? – Current Gms. CO2 per passenger km by modes of travel Travel Mode
Small
Medium Large Average
Petrol Car 183 216 296 209 Diesel Car 150 188 263 199 Hybrid Car 126 224 Motor Cycle 73 94 129 107 Bus 89 Rail 60 Domestic Air travel 158* International Air travel 118* * Does not including approx. doubling effect of radiative forcing
What can we do? - our reaction Reducing the carbon footprint when travelling by car Spatial or Land-use planning to reduce the need for travel by car Good accessibility to essential services –employment opportunities, shopping, health,education and leisure Travel demand management Influencing travel behaviour Smarter choices and travel planning Congestion charging and parking management Information dissemination and awareness Improved quality of service and promotion of walking, cycling and PT Improve awareness Retrofit our highway and rail infrastructure for the changed temperature and rainfall expected Reducing the carbon footprint of highway construction and maintenance
Contraction and Convergence
Do we have to wear one?
Today’s presentation
The basics of climate change What is causing climate change? The Stern Report Carbon Emissions and Transport Statistics Draft Climate Change Bill and EU proposals Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy (LCTIS) The King Reports What can we do? Peak Oil
The basics of climate change
The basics of climate change
The basics of climate change
The basics of climate change
The basics of climate change
Climate Change - Some Background…. Relationship between man made emissions and temperature rise first put forward in 1980s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) formed in 1988 Published 4 Assessment Reports, latest in 2007 Increasing certainty over time Climate change is real and is a threat
CO2 levels Atmospheric concentration 2005 379ppm, Pre-industrial 280ppm Rate of increase is accelerating 2008 387ppm Levels far exceed those from last 650,000 years between 1995 and 2005 CO2 levels increased by 1.9 ppm per annum Climate change to date Temp: 1906-2005, +0.74C, increase is accelerating Sea Level 1900-2005, +250mm, increase is accelerating
Climate Change Outcomes - IPCC By 2095, estimates are: temperatures will be 1.1C-6.4C higher than 1990 Sea level will be 0.18m-0.59m higher than 1990 IPCC ‘Headline’ Scenario CO2 concentrations must peak at 450ppm emissions must reduce between 2000 and 2015 CO2 emissions in 2050 must be between 50% and 85% lower globally than in 2000 Projected impacts of climate change Poorest countries suffer most
Global CO2 Emissions, Fossil Fuels, 1990-2004 Global CO2 Emissions 29,000,000
27,000,000
tonnes ('000)
25,000,000
23,000,000
21,000,000
19,000,000
17,000,000
15,000,000 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
rest of world
Saudi Arabia
Australia
Ukraine
Spain
Brazil
France
Indonesia
Iran
South Africa
Mexico
Italy
South Korea
United Kingdom
Canada
Germany
Japan
India
Russia
China
United States
tonnes ('000)
CO2 Emissions by Country – Fossil Fuel Burning Total CO2 Emissions by Country, 2004
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
Saudi Arabia
Australia
Ukraine
Spain
Brazil
France
Indonesia
Iran
South Africa
Mexico
Italy
South Korea
United Kingdom
Canada
Germany
Japan
India
Russia
China
United States
tonnes / person 25 emissions / head
20 600
15 500
10 400
300
5 200
100
-
tonnes / $m GDP
Top 20 Emitters: Emissions / head & GDP CO2 Emissions By Country, 2004 900
emissions / gdp
800
700
What does it take to have a cup of coffee in a café?
The combined efforts of 29 companies in 18 countries
Global Growth Projections Cars: Present day – 600m 2050 – 1,100m in China & India alone Population: 6,700m (2008) → 9,220m (2075) Economy: Global growth of a factor of 3-4 by 2050 Major future energy pressures from the developed and developing world
Greenhouse Gases Water vapour Gases due to Carbon dioxide human activity Methane, Nitrous oxide, Halocarbons, Ozone, And several others present in small amounts
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Greenhouse Gas Statistics - The Future Contribution
The Stern Report
Action is needed to contain emissions and to bring forward technologies that can deliver more costeffective carbon reduction in the future If unchecked, climate change could shrink global economies by 20% Radical cuts are needed in the medium to long term It may be cost effective for domestic transport to abate carbon emissions by around 40-60% in 2050 compared with 1990 levels. Addressing the problems of climate change would cost less than 1% of global GDP
The Stern Report
The Stern Report Climate change is occurring It is attributable to the increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere There needs to be an increasingly stringent regulatory environment to reduce CO2 emissions “The climate change we expect in the next 30-40 years will be due to our past greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change later this century will be determined by the emissions we allow now”
tr an sp or t
W as te
In d
io ns
ia l
di sp os al
pr oc es se s
fu el s
sh ip pi ng
se
en t
fu el u
fr om
an d
us tr ia l
em is s
ry
R es id
ft an d
tre at m en t
Fu gi tiv e
fo re st
ai rc ra
an d
M ili ta ry
A gr ic ul tu re
O th er C om -t ra m ns er po ci al rt an d in st itu tio na l
R oa d
En er M gy an in uf du ac st tu rie ri ng s & co ns tr uc tio n
UK CO2 Emissions by Sector UK CO2 Emissions by Sector, 2006
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Carbon dioxide emissions for transport
Carbon dioxide emissions for road transport
Carbon Modelling - Impact of low carbon technologies
HOL/HOC Jt Committee on the Draft Climate Change Bill – Delaying Action
New car average emissions
Climate Change – The UK Programme
Draft UK Climate Change Bill Aims to reduce CO2 emissions below 1990 baseline levels by 26-32% by 2020 60% by 2050 Government hinting this target may need to be increased to 80% by 2050 Targets exclude international aviation travel
Regulatory Context Climate change bill Royal assent expected in Summer 2008 setting a 2050 target for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions “the net UK carbon account for the year 2050 is at least 60% lower than the 1990 baseline” to provide for a system of carbon budgeting to confer powers to establish trading schemes
http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2007-08/climatechangehl.html
Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy (LCTIS) Published by DfT in May 2007 Fourfold approach Technologies for Road Sector Car Fuel Efficiency Objectives Technologies for Aviation Sector Policy Implementation
LCTIS – Fourfold approach “Creating a stronger incentive framework for lower carbon transport technologies” Carbon price signals Other market-based and regulatory approaches Research, development and demonstration of technology projects Better information on carbon impacts and lower carbon options
LCTIS – Technologies for Road Sector Short termImprovements to diesel and petrol engines New and emerging lightweight materials Hybrid electric and petrol/diesel engines First generation biofuels
Longer termPlug-in hybrids Fully electric vehicles Second generation biofuels Hydrogen powered vehicles and fuel cells
LCTIS – Car Fuel Efficiency Objectives EU intention to replace voluntary agreements with a new legislative framework to deliver average new car fuel efficiency of 130 gms of CO2 per km by 2012. UK Government announced in the 2007 Budget its long term objective of cutting average new car emissions to 100 gms CO2 per km.
LCTIS – Policy Implementation Mandatory car fuel efficiency targets Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) Communications campaign Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation Mode shift program –supporting rail and water Logistics efficiency program – Safe and Fuel Efficient Driving Scheme (SAFED)
The Julia King Review of Low-Carbon Cars (April 2008) “to examine the vehicle and fuel technologies that over the next 25 years could help to decarbonise road transport particularly cars” Part 1 The potential for CO2 reductions Part 2 Policy recommendations
The King Review – key findings compared to 2000 levels of traffic and carbon emissions By 2030 50% reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre 30% overall reduction in emissions By 2050 90% reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre 80% overall reduction in emissions
The King Review – potential solutions Cleaner fuels – biofuels, zero-carbon electricity, hydrogen More efficient vehicles – enhancements to conventional vehicles, introducing hybrid and electric battery technologies Smart driver choices – purchasing low-emission technologies, pumped-up tyres, acceleration control, car-driver journey avoidance
The King Report - Conclusions “….in the long term (2050 in the developed world), almost complete de-carbonisation of road transport is a realistic ambition. If: substantial progress can be made in solving electric or other innovative vehicle and fuel technology challenges and, critically the power sector can be decarbonised and expanded to supply a large proportion of road transport demand
What can we do –achieving Climate Change targets Behavioural change – travel volumes and modal choices – in terms of the scale of change required Would require dramatic and unpalatable measures Can have an effect at the margin Technological change – improvements in vehicle efficiency and use of alternative fuels UK Government assumptions are for 90%+ of the required cuts to come from technology
What can we do? Understand that it is politically unacceptable to tell people that they must travel less Transport for Sustainable Communities – providing access locally to essential services Fiscal and regulatory measures to encourage technology changes
What can we do? – the context of the key transport issues Supporting the economy Reducing traffic congestion Traffic impact on the environment including carbon emissions, noise and pollution Place-making and the design of our streets Accessibility to essential services including employment opportunities, health and education Travel safety
What can we do? – Current Gms. CO2 per passenger km by modes of travel Travel Mode
Small
Medium Large Average
Petrol Car 183 216 296 209 Diesel Car 150 188 263 199 Hybrid Car 126 224 Motor Cycle 73 94 129 107 Bus 89 Rail 60 Domestic Air travel 158* International Air travel 118* * Does not including approx. doubling effect of radiative forcing
What can we do? - our reaction Reducing the carbon footprint when travelling by car Spatial or Land-use planning to reduce the need for travel by car Good accessibility to essential services –employment opportunities, shopping, health,education and leisure Travel demand management Influencing travel behaviour Smarter choices and travel planning Congestion charging and parking management Information dissemination and awareness Improved quality of service and promotion of walking, cycling and PT Improve awareness Retrofit our highway and rail infrastructure for the changed temperature and rainfall expected Reducing the carbon footprint of highway construction and maintenance
Contraction and Convergence
Do we have to wear one?
