Climate Change
Climate Change • • • •
Purpose of Presentation Definitions and Impacts Public Sector Action County of Santa Clara Actions
Purpose of Presentation • Keep Senior Staff up-to-date on policies, regulations, and science related to Climate Change. • Identify potential impacts of Climate Change on Santa Clara County, and potential actions of Santa Clara County in response to prospect of Climate Change.
Why Now? • Timing of presentation prompted by: – Passage of AB 32 in 2006, – Steady increase in media attention on topic throughout 2007, and – Increased activity by State Attorney General, including lawsuit in April 2007 over San Bernardino County General Plan.
Summary of Key Points • •
Climate Change is being increasingly addressed through legislative and judicial actions that affect local government and planning. Local governments will need to integrate consideration of Climate Change into decision making, including – – – – – – – – – –
Land uses and transportation planning, Building materials and standards, and Procurement sources and types of goods purchased Fleet vehicle purchases and fuel use Capital project development Solid waste management and regulation Energy and Water consumption and conservation Health care and epidemiology Vector control monitoring Agricultural regulations
History of Global Warming Awareness •
• • •
• • •
June 1992: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilizing GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. December 1997: The Kyoto Protocol establishes a set of quantified GHG emission targets for developed countries. June 2002: The U.S. government acknowledges for the first time that human activity is contributing to global warming. June 2006: A committee convened by the National Academies of Science concludes that human activities are largely responsible for recent global warming. September 2006: California adopts AB 32. April 2007: The Supreme Court decides GHGs are pollutants that the Environmental Protection Agency must regulate. April 2007: California Attorney General Jerry Brown sues San Bernardino County, holding that the County did not adequately address GHGs in its General Plan EIR. Source: ULI Report “Growing Cooler”
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) • Greenhouse Gases – The man-made contributions are mostly Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide
GHGs Lead to Global Warming
Natural levels of GHGs make the earth 60 F degrees warmer than otherwise. Naturally occuring water vapor causes most of this. Man-made sources of GHG could lead to a 4 to 7 F degrees increase, depending on assumptions and society's response.
Current CO2 concentrations are higher than they have been in the last 650,000 years Atmospheric Concentration of CO2
Global Warming Potential and Atmospheric Lifetimes of Various Greenhouse Gases
Sources: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, EPA Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks
Effects of Climate Change • • • • • • • •
Temperature Increase Increase in Fire Risk Sea Level Rise Snowpack Loss Icecap Loss Desertification Species Extinction Ecosystem Destabilization and Collapse
Albrecht Durer
Potential Global Impacts
Potential California Impacts by 2100
Source: Climate Action Team 3/06 Report
Change in Snow Pack
Wildfire Probabilities
Statistics and Projections • GHGs Emissions by Origin • Sources, Uses, and End Products
World GHG Emissions
State GHG Emissions
National GHG Emissions
Bay Area GHG Emissions
Sources: CEC Report “INVENTORY OF CALIFORNIA GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: 1990 TO 2004”, December 2006, Wikipedia, 11/2006 Bay Area AirQuality Management District Report on GHG emissions, Wikipedia
Bay Area County Contributions, By County
Santa Clara County
Stabilization • For climate stabilization, it is estimated that the U.S. needs to cut its Carbon Dioxide production by 60% to 80% by 2050. • California's EO-S-3-05 established a target of an 80% reduction in GHGs by 2050. • With an 80% reduction in GHG emissions, temperature stabilization might occur at 4 to 6 degrees F above current levels.
Sources: Urban Land Institute “Growing Cooler”, California State Executive Order S-3-05
Socolow's Stabilization Triangle There are existing technologies and actions that can contribute meaningfully to reduction of GHG emissions, but no one strategy can solve the problem by itself. If enough strategies are implemented, growth in CO2 emissions can be stopped.
Example of strategies include auto fuel efficiency, CO2 capture, and shifting away from coal power. From the Carbon Mitigation Initiative's Fact Sheet, Based on “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies” by Steve Pacala & Rob Socolow in Science, August 13, 2004.
Land Use Can Help With Wedge Option #2
Source “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies” by Steve Pacala & Rob Socolow in Science, August 13, 2004.
What Can Government Do? • State Institutions – AB 32 – Set targets for GHG emissions – Attorney General: Use CEQA – SB 97 – OPR must establish CEQA guidelines on GHGs – Blueprint Planning: ABAG’s Focus Our Vision
• City and County Governments – ICLEI and County Climate Action Plans – Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Sonoma, King County (Washington) – General Plans: Require an Energy Element – Green Buildings: LEED is Title 24 version 2.0
State Solutions So Far Focus on Regional Planning • Blueprint Planning Process – The ULI Report “Growing Cooler” references California's Blueprint Planning as a Model to be Copied Nationwide – Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) Work as a Model
How Climate Change Affects Santa Clara County Public Health Increased heat / pollution / ozone - asthma, heat stroke
Water • Fresh Water Availability (50% of water from Sierra snowmelt) • Flooding (Alviso), Salt Water Intrusion into groundwater
Increased rate of Wildfires Agricultural Production • Loss of certain crops (Fruit trees need winter dormancy) • Drought - less water
Biodiversity • Increased species extension, HCP nullified
How can SCC address Climate Change? • • •
Understand GHG inventory and governmental/community sources Create Climate Action Plan County Operations – – – –
•
Reduce ICE vehicles in County Fleet, Green(er) buildings (Energy and Water Efficiency) Encouraging Carpooling/Rideshare/Transit use Purchasing (local vs. imported)
Land Use / Transportation – General Plan discourages sprawl – However, rural residential development = highest carbon footprint.
•
Regional Sustainability – Leadership in Climate Change – Keeping Natural Resources / Ag Local (produce, cement, timber) – Climate Offsets (reforestation)
Land Use / Transportation Carbon Emissions per Household 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
CO2 - lbs/yr
20,000 10,000 0 Urban Household
Suburban Household
Exurban Household
TravelMatters.com
Steps to Address Climate Change Climate Action Plan ICLEI’s Cities for Climate Protection Campaign • Milestone 1. Conduct a baseline emissions inventory and forecast. • Milestone 2. Adopt an emissions reduction target for the forecast year. • Milestone 3. Develop a Local Action Plan. • Milestone 4. Implement policies and measures. • Milestone 5. Monitor and verify results. ICLEI - International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives
Current Status - Steps Ahead • Lead Coordinator - Caroline Judy – Facilities & Fleets. • Carbon Inventory of County Operations - Joint Venture Silicon Valley and Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI) contract – in process • Request for funding / position of County Climate Coordinator - County Executive’s Office– in process • Advocacy – monitor AB 32 implementation
Key County Departments / Agencies • • • • • • • • • • • •
Facilities & Fleet- Caroline Judy Fleet Management - David Snow Planning – Rob Eastwood, Steve Ross Building - Tom Whisler Procurement - Jenti Vandertuig Parks - Lisa Killough Roads & Airports - Michael Murdter Agriculture - Greg Van Wassenhove DEH Solid Waste - Nicole Pullman Legislative Affairs - Katie Brown Public Health – Marty Fenstersheib County Counsel – Hillary Stevenson, Lizanne Reynolds
Learn From Other Counties • Go through the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) Program, led by Local Governments for Sustainability • Both Marin and Sonoma Counties have inventoried their GHG emissions, and Marin County has a GHG Reduction Plan • Sacramento County participating in Chicago Climate Exchange
Actions by Other Counties Marin County Analysis
• Marin and Sonoma Counties went through the CCP program Sonoma County Analysis
What would a Climate Action Plan do? • County Operations – – – –
Fleet Conversion - Hybrids, Electrics, CNG, fuel cell County Facilities- Retrofit for LEED Power - solar, hydrogen fuel cell, wind power Procurement - Reduce imported goods, increase recycled goods
• Land Use / Planning – Existing - General Plan, Title 24, Subdivisions & Solar Access – Carrot and Stick: • Expedite LEED Certified Buildings (Special Handling) • Expedite Solar permits • Require offsets or increased energy sustainability (solar) for larger houses and those further from cities (higher VMT). • Greater Tree preservation (Carbon Sinks)
– CEQA to consider Climate Change (Cumulative Impacts)
What would a Climate Action Plan do? • Regional Sustainability – Leadership in encouraging cities to address climate change. – Promote use of local resources: agriculture (San Francisco Foodshed), produce, timber, cement, etc. – Regional offset / mitigation program reforestation, sustainable energy generation.
• Resilient County – Plan for assumed climate change - contingency plan.
Questions?
Purpose of Presentation Definitions and Impacts Public Sector Action County of Santa Clara Actions
Purpose of Presentation • Keep Senior Staff up-to-date on policies, regulations, and science related to Climate Change. • Identify potential impacts of Climate Change on Santa Clara County, and potential actions of Santa Clara County in response to prospect of Climate Change.
Why Now? • Timing of presentation prompted by: – Passage of AB 32 in 2006, – Steady increase in media attention on topic throughout 2007, and – Increased activity by State Attorney General, including lawsuit in April 2007 over San Bernardino County General Plan.
Summary of Key Points • •
Climate Change is being increasingly addressed through legislative and judicial actions that affect local government and planning. Local governments will need to integrate consideration of Climate Change into decision making, including – – – – – – – – – –
Land uses and transportation planning, Building materials and standards, and Procurement sources and types of goods purchased Fleet vehicle purchases and fuel use Capital project development Solid waste management and regulation Energy and Water consumption and conservation Health care and epidemiology Vector control monitoring Agricultural regulations
History of Global Warming Awareness •
• • •
• • •
June 1992: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilizing GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. December 1997: The Kyoto Protocol establishes a set of quantified GHG emission targets for developed countries. June 2002: The U.S. government acknowledges for the first time that human activity is contributing to global warming. June 2006: A committee convened by the National Academies of Science concludes that human activities are largely responsible for recent global warming. September 2006: California adopts AB 32. April 2007: The Supreme Court decides GHGs are pollutants that the Environmental Protection Agency must regulate. April 2007: California Attorney General Jerry Brown sues San Bernardino County, holding that the County did not adequately address GHGs in its General Plan EIR. Source: ULI Report “Growing Cooler”
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) • Greenhouse Gases – The man-made contributions are mostly Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide
GHGs Lead to Global Warming
Natural levels of GHGs make the earth 60 F degrees warmer than otherwise. Naturally occuring water vapor causes most of this. Man-made sources of GHG could lead to a 4 to 7 F degrees increase, depending on assumptions and society's response.
Current CO2 concentrations are higher than they have been in the last 650,000 years Atmospheric Concentration of CO2
Global Warming Potential and Atmospheric Lifetimes of Various Greenhouse Gases
Sources: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, EPA Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks
Effects of Climate Change • • • • • • • •
Temperature Increase Increase in Fire Risk Sea Level Rise Snowpack Loss Icecap Loss Desertification Species Extinction Ecosystem Destabilization and Collapse
Albrecht Durer
Potential Global Impacts
Potential California Impacts by 2100
Source: Climate Action Team 3/06 Report
Change in Snow Pack
Wildfire Probabilities
Statistics and Projections • GHGs Emissions by Origin • Sources, Uses, and End Products
World GHG Emissions
State GHG Emissions
National GHG Emissions
Bay Area GHG Emissions
Sources: CEC Report “INVENTORY OF CALIFORNIA GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: 1990 TO 2004”, December 2006, Wikipedia, 11/2006 Bay Area AirQuality Management District Report on GHG emissions, Wikipedia
Bay Area County Contributions, By County
Santa Clara County
Stabilization • For climate stabilization, it is estimated that the U.S. needs to cut its Carbon Dioxide production by 60% to 80% by 2050. • California's EO-S-3-05 established a target of an 80% reduction in GHGs by 2050. • With an 80% reduction in GHG emissions, temperature stabilization might occur at 4 to 6 degrees F above current levels.
Sources: Urban Land Institute “Growing Cooler”, California State Executive Order S-3-05
Socolow's Stabilization Triangle There are existing technologies and actions that can contribute meaningfully to reduction of GHG emissions, but no one strategy can solve the problem by itself. If enough strategies are implemented, growth in CO2 emissions can be stopped.
Example of strategies include auto fuel efficiency, CO2 capture, and shifting away from coal power. From the Carbon Mitigation Initiative's Fact Sheet, Based on “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies” by Steve Pacala & Rob Socolow in Science, August 13, 2004.
Land Use Can Help With Wedge Option #2
Source “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies” by Steve Pacala & Rob Socolow in Science, August 13, 2004.
What Can Government Do? • State Institutions – AB 32 – Set targets for GHG emissions – Attorney General: Use CEQA – SB 97 – OPR must establish CEQA guidelines on GHGs – Blueprint Planning: ABAG’s Focus Our Vision
• City and County Governments – ICLEI and County Climate Action Plans – Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Sonoma, King County (Washington) – General Plans: Require an Energy Element – Green Buildings: LEED is Title 24 version 2.0
State Solutions So Far Focus on Regional Planning • Blueprint Planning Process – The ULI Report “Growing Cooler” references California's Blueprint Planning as a Model to be Copied Nationwide – Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) Work as a Model
How Climate Change Affects Santa Clara County Public Health Increased heat / pollution / ozone - asthma, heat stroke
Water • Fresh Water Availability (50% of water from Sierra snowmelt) • Flooding (Alviso), Salt Water Intrusion into groundwater
Increased rate of Wildfires Agricultural Production • Loss of certain crops (Fruit trees need winter dormancy) • Drought - less water
Biodiversity • Increased species extension, HCP nullified
How can SCC address Climate Change? • • •
Understand GHG inventory and governmental/community sources Create Climate Action Plan County Operations – – – –
•
Reduce ICE vehicles in County Fleet, Green(er) buildings (Energy and Water Efficiency) Encouraging Carpooling/Rideshare/Transit use Purchasing (local vs. imported)
Land Use / Transportation – General Plan discourages sprawl – However, rural residential development = highest carbon footprint.
•
Regional Sustainability – Leadership in Climate Change – Keeping Natural Resources / Ag Local (produce, cement, timber) – Climate Offsets (reforestation)
Land Use / Transportation Carbon Emissions per Household 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
CO2 - lbs/yr
20,000 10,000 0 Urban Household
Suburban Household
Exurban Household
TravelMatters.com
Steps to Address Climate Change Climate Action Plan ICLEI’s Cities for Climate Protection Campaign • Milestone 1. Conduct a baseline emissions inventory and forecast. • Milestone 2. Adopt an emissions reduction target for the forecast year. • Milestone 3. Develop a Local Action Plan. • Milestone 4. Implement policies and measures. • Milestone 5. Monitor and verify results. ICLEI - International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives
Current Status - Steps Ahead • Lead Coordinator - Caroline Judy – Facilities & Fleets. • Carbon Inventory of County Operations - Joint Venture Silicon Valley and Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI) contract – in process • Request for funding / position of County Climate Coordinator - County Executive’s Office– in process • Advocacy – monitor AB 32 implementation
Key County Departments / Agencies • • • • • • • • • • • •
Facilities & Fleet- Caroline Judy Fleet Management - David Snow Planning – Rob Eastwood, Steve Ross Building - Tom Whisler Procurement - Jenti Vandertuig Parks - Lisa Killough Roads & Airports - Michael Murdter Agriculture - Greg Van Wassenhove DEH Solid Waste - Nicole Pullman Legislative Affairs - Katie Brown Public Health – Marty Fenstersheib County Counsel – Hillary Stevenson, Lizanne Reynolds
Learn From Other Counties • Go through the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) Program, led by Local Governments for Sustainability • Both Marin and Sonoma Counties have inventoried their GHG emissions, and Marin County has a GHG Reduction Plan • Sacramento County participating in Chicago Climate Exchange
Actions by Other Counties Marin County Analysis
• Marin and Sonoma Counties went through the CCP program Sonoma County Analysis
What would a Climate Action Plan do? • County Operations – – – –
Fleet Conversion - Hybrids, Electrics, CNG, fuel cell County Facilities- Retrofit for LEED Power - solar, hydrogen fuel cell, wind power Procurement - Reduce imported goods, increase recycled goods
• Land Use / Planning – Existing - General Plan, Title 24, Subdivisions & Solar Access – Carrot and Stick: • Expedite LEED Certified Buildings (Special Handling) • Expedite Solar permits • Require offsets or increased energy sustainability (solar) for larger houses and those further from cities (higher VMT). • Greater Tree preservation (Carbon Sinks)
– CEQA to consider Climate Change (Cumulative Impacts)
What would a Climate Action Plan do? • Regional Sustainability – Leadership in encouraging cities to address climate change. – Promote use of local resources: agriculture (San Francisco Foodshed), produce, timber, cement, etc. – Regional offset / mitigation program reforestation, sustainable energy generation.
• Resilient County – Plan for assumed climate change - contingency plan.
Questions?
