Coal Supply & Demand - JCOAL
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
COAL SUPPLY & DEMAND Fumiaki Iwahashi General Manager, Coal Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd.
ABSTRACT ♦Originally, coal is a commodity with strong “PRODUCE LOCALLY AND CONSUME LOCALLY character. i.e.) World Coal Production Approx. 5,400 Mil. MT (2007, excluding lignite) out of the above) Internationally Traded Volume Approx.800 Mil. MT (approx 15% of total production) ♦ IEA (International Energy Agency) predicts that the world’s total coal production and consumption will increase by about 1,600 Mil. MT from 2007 to 2015, approx. 7,000 Mil. MT. At a glance, it seems that production and consumption are roughly in balance, but the real trend is that the supply capacity expansion is chasing after strong demand. The internationally traded volume is equally expected to increase from 800 Mil. MT to the 1,100 Mil. MT level. ♦ Both the production and the consumption volume of China, US, and India are approx 3/4th of the world total. The key factors in the near future will be the increase in demand in China and India and the supply capacity of Australia and Indonesia. In 2015, production and consumption will almost balance in China and US whereas the forecasts for India anticipate that consumption will outstrip production on a large scale. With regard to China, the demand for steam coal, centering on use in the electricity sector, will see substantial increase. ♦ Steam coal demands for coal-fired thermal power generation will be vigorous not only in China and India but in all parts of the world (Southeast Asia, Europe, North America, Middle East, etc.) The way these programs progress will have an impact on the supply and demand situation. ♦ Similarly, the expansion of demand for coal for coking coal mainly in China and India will need a close watch in much the same way as for steam coal.
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
要約
元々、石炭は「地産地消」の性格が強い商品。 i.e.
世界の石炭生産
うち
国際貿易量
約 54 億トン 約
8 億トン
（2007 年、褐炭を除く） （全体の約 15％）
IEA（International Energy Agency）予想では、全世界の石炭を 2007 年から 2015 年にかけて生 産も消費も約 16 億トン増加し約 70 億トンと予測している。一見すると生産と消費はほぼバランス しているが、実際の動きとしては旺盛な需要を供給力の拡張が追い掛けていく形。国際貿易量は同 様に 8 億トンから 11 億トン台への増加が見込まれる。
生産量・消費量とも中国、米国、インドで世界の約 3/4 を占める。近い将来のキーは中国とインド の需要の伸び、及び供給サイドでの豪州とインドネシア。2015 年には、中国と米国は生産と消費 がほぼ拮抗する一方、インドは消費が生産を大幅に上回る見通し。中国については、電力用を中心 とした一般炭の需要の伸びが大きいと予想される。
石炭火力発電向け電力炭需要は中国・インドのみならず、世界各地（東南アジア、欧州、北米、中 東など）で旺盛であり、これら計画の進捗が需給状況に影響する。
原料炭に就いても一般炭同様、中国・インドを中心とした需要の伸びを注視する必要がある。
L-2-3
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
COAL SUPPLY & DEMAND
September 4, 2008 Mitsui & Co., Ltd. September, 2008
F.Iwahashi
1
COAL – from the viewpoint of Business • Ample Reserves – Confirmed 1 Trillion MT Recoverable about 160-200Years Oil：40 Yrs Gas： 60 Yrs •
Produced all over the world
- ‘Local Consumption of local products’ - Production 5,400Mil.MT(2007) Overseas Trade 800Mil.MT (15%) * Excluding Brown coal
• •
•
Competitive Price – Calorific Value Basis CIF Price/Kcal Coal : Gas : Oil = 1 : 2 : 3 (2006 Statistics) Variable Usage ① Cokes Materials ② Fuel ③ Coal-Chemical, IGCC, For H2 Production etc. To add values as ‘Environmentally-Friendly’ Coal CO2 Separation, CCS Technology etc.
September, 2008
2
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
Global Coal Supply & Demand Demand
Supply Others 879
Indonesia 214 Australia 319
2007 5,395
USA 1,048
Indonesia 310
China 2,525
India 410
Others 1,238
Australia 508 USA 1,048
2015 7,047 India 622
China 3,321
Balance (2007) China +19 India -56 USA +8 Australia +247 Indonesia +176 Others -379 Total +15
Balance (2015) China +47 India -215 USA -10 Australia +401 Indonesia +210 Others -445 Total -12
Indonesia 38 Australia 72
Others 1,078
Others 1,502 Indonesia 100 Australia 107
Japan 180
2007 5,380 USA 1,040
(mln t)
China 2,506
India 466
Japan 181
2015 7,059
China 3,274
USA 1,058 India 837
September, 2008
3
September, 2008
4
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
September, 2008
5
Supply & Demand in general - Asia • After Year 2000, about 80Mil.-100Mil.Tons of Coal Exportability has been decreased in Asia – China/India • Infrastructure Problems (Capacity of Railway & Port Facility) in Australia • Demand will be increasing, while increased export capacity will mitigate the situation (to some extent ?)
September, 2008
6
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
China & India 2000-2007
China Net Export
Milt 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2000
2001
year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Indian Import
2002
2003
2004
export 54,992 89,928 83,810 93,885 86,657 71,676 63,235 53,092
2005
China import Net export 2,116 52,876 2,493 87,435 10,664 73,146 10,761 83,124 18,611 68,046 26,171 45,505 38,244 24,991 51,016 2,076
2006
(kt) India import 21,000 20,700 23,100 21,400 28,400 37,100 45,300 51,300
2007
Source: “Trade Statistics of China”, “Coal Information 2004, 2005, and 2007”, and “Port Information (India)” September, 2008
7
Seaborne Coal Volume & Balance (mln t)
1400 Total Demand
1200 1000
Metallurgical Coal Supply
800 600 Thermal Coal Supply
400 200 0 2007 (mln t) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
2008
2009
2010
Thermal Coal
2007
2008
2009
2010
September, 2008 Indonesia Australia
2011 Others
2011
2012
(mln t) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2012
2015
Demand
2015 Metallurgical Coal
2007
2008 Australia
L-2-7
2009
2010
Canada
2011 Others
2012 Demand8
2015
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
Seaborne Coal Volume & Balance
Met Coal Supply
2007 206
2008 221
2009 236
2010 254
2011 273
2012 284
2015 305 201
Australia
126
136
149
158
173
183
Canada
27
29
30
30
30
30
30
Others
53
56
57
66
70
71
74
Thermal Coal Supply
642
657
681
692
714
729
820
Australia
121
124
133
136
140
145
200
Indonesia
174
180
185
189
191
195
200
Others
347
353
363
367
383
389
420
848 214 674 888 -8 -32 -40
878 223 704 927 -2 -47 -49
917 236 723 959 0 -42 -42
946 252 744 996 2 -52 -50
987 273 759 1,032 0 -45 -45
1,013 289 781 1,070 -5 -52 -57
1,125 315 853 1,168 -10 -33 -43
Total Supply Met Coal Demand Thermal Coal Demand Total Demand Met Coal Balance Thermal Coal Balance Total Balance
Remark: Seaborne coal supply of 2007 (848 mln t) accounts for only 16% of the global production of the same year (5,395 mln t). This is because large producing countries, such as China (2,525 mln t), USA (1,048 mln t) and India (410 mln t), consume the most part of one’s coal production. September, 2008 9
World Primary Energy Consumption by Region, 1971 - 2030 Million tons Oil Equivalent
Annual Growth Rate 1971-2004 2005-2030 World
2.2%
1.7%
Asia
4.7%
2.8%
North America 1.2%
1.0%
•
World primary energy consumption is projected to increase by 56% from 2004 to 2030.
•
The most rapid growth in energy consumption is projected for nations in Asia, mainly India and China.
•
Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries increases by 95%, compared with 24% in the OECD countries
Asia
North America
Europe (OECD) Europe (Non-OECD) South America
Middle East Africa Oceania 2030
Sources: Institute of Energy Economics Japan, International Energy Outlook 2007 (EIA)
September, 2008
10
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1971 - 2030 Million tons Oil Equivalent Annual Growth Rate 1971-2004
•
Fossil Fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) are expected to continue to supply much of the energy used world wide, providing 88% of world energy consumed from 2004 to 2030.
•
Coal is the growing energy source worldwide for the industrial sector (including the steel industry) and electric power sector, largely because of its ample reserves and cost competitiveness.
•
Use of nuclear power, hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources is expected to continue to expand, but their share of total world energy consumption is 11 expected to be rather limited.
2005-2030
Oil
1.5%
1.5%
Coal
2.0%
1.6%
Natural Gas
3.0%
2.1%
Total
2.2%
1.7%
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydroelectricity
Renewable
Sources: Institute of Energy Economics Japan, International Energy Outlook 2007 (EIA)
September, 2008
Coal - Indispensable and Competitive Energy Source for Electricity Generation •
Replaced by Nuclear, Wind and Solar in the near future? – Nuclear: • There are many plans to build new nuclear power plants. • But, the lead time between deciding to build a nuclear power station and actually building / commissioning would be in the range of 10 – 20 years. • Key equipment for nuclear power plants such as reactors and reactor coolant pumps are currently produced by only one machinery maker in Japan, and supply of such key equipment is expected to be the bottleneck for new nuclear power plant. – Wind and Solar : • Higher CAPEX and vast site area required. - CAPEX for a 1,000MW Oil & LNG Coal Nuclear Windmill Solar battery
Power Station US$ 1.0 billion US$ 1.2 billion US$ 5.0 billion US$10.0 billion (requiring 246 square kilo meters) US$60.0 billion (requiring 67 square kilo meters)
September, 2008
12
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
China and India - Electricity ConsumptionNet Electricity Consumption per capita ( KWh ) 18,000 India
16,000
China
Japan
14,000
12,608 11,169
12,000
9,358
10,000
7,391
8,000
6,161
4,129
6,000 4,000 2,000
15,395
United States
303 477
485 1,286
1,194
0 1990
2003
2030
Source : International Energy Outlook 2006 / Energy Information Administration
z China still has a lot of potential to increase its energy consumption, still being 1/5 of Japan’s as of 2003 and projected to expand more than 3 times by 2030. z India is rapidly catching up, having even more potential than China over the long run as its population is expected outstrip that of China within a few decades. September, 2008
13
INDIA -Coal Demand• Our estimate of thermal coal import CY07 29Mt CY10 46Mt CY15 143Mt • Indian government initiates “Ultra MW Projects”(4,000MW x 9). • 5～6 projects will use import coal (approx.70Mt) demand during CY11～17. • 15 other projects for import coal by CY13. Another 30mt demand increase. • Power plants designed for high energy foreign coal. •Coastal based boilers expected to use import coal mainly due to high rail freight. Red point : Ultra MW project (using import coal) Yellow point : Ultra MW project (using domestic coal) Green point : Existing coal-fired plants September, 2008 Green-colored area : Main coal production area
D is t a n c e ( k m ) O n e 0-10 0 200 300 400 500 611 750 1 ,0 0 0 1 ,2 5 0
L-2-10
w ay
P e r 1 0 0 k g(R s ) 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10
U SD 1 9 7 5 3 2 3 2 2
.6 .7 .5 .2 .1 .4 .2 .8 .6
8 5 4 8 5 8 1 7 8
p e r to n n e 2 .7 4 .6 6 .4 8 .1 9 .9 1 2 .1 1 4 .6 1 9 .1 2 3 .7
14
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
Confidential
World Traded Volume – Thermal Coal (Mil t) 950
World Total Demand
World Total Supply
850
India
750
China
650
Others 550 2007
2008
2009
Others (demand)
2010
China (demand)
2011
India (demand)
2012 Total Supply
2015
(CY)
Source: AME Export Thermal Coal 2008, IEA Statistics Coal Information 2007, EIA World Energy Outlook 2007, Mitsui Research Team
September, 2008
15
China and India - Steel Production Apparent Steel Use per capita ( kg ) 700 600
664
Japan
United States
617
618 397
400
385
269
300
100
China
440
500
200
India
28 92
39
63
0 1996
2006
2015
369 43% of the Chinese population is living in urban area mainly along the coastal. In Chinese urban areas, apparent steel use per capita has already reached 626 kg – the same as Japan. That is why we estimate that China growth as a whole will slow down from now until their Government succeeds in its Go-West 2030 campaign.
z So far during this decade, Chinese growth in apparent steel use per capita has been much higher than its growth in energy consumption, being half of Japan’s as of 2006. z While it still has potential for further growth, the rate of growth is expected to be more subdued. z India has just started to grow, having great potential for further sharp growth. Source : World Steel Dynamics / International Energy Outlook 2006 / Mitsui’s estimate
September, 2008
16
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
World Traded Volume – Metallurgical Coal (Mil t) 500
World Total Demand
World Total Supply
400
300
India 200
Others 100 2007
2008 Others (demand)
2009 China (demand)
2010 India (demand)
2011
2012 Total Supply
2015
(CY)
Source: IISI Medium Term Outlook, IEA Statistics Coal Information 2007, Barlow Jonker Coal Supply Series, Mitsui Research Team
September, 2008
17
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
いわはし
ふみあき
氏名： 岩 橋
史明
学歴： 1978 年 3 月
一橋大学社会学部卒業
職歴： 1978 年 4 月 三井物産株式会社入社 石油部 1986 年 7 月 三井物産㈱ エネルギー部門 海外研修員 （ロスアンゼルス・ ニューヨーク・ロンドン） 1987 年 7 月 三井物産㈱ 炭素部 1989 年 2 月 米国三井物産㈱ ロスアンゼルス支店 エネルギー部 アシスタント・ゼネラル・ マネージャー 1993 年 2 月 三井物産㈱ 石油貿易部 課長代理 1994 年 10 月 同課長 1995 年 9 月 三井物産㈱ 業務部経営企画室 1998 年 9 月 三井物産㈱ エネルギー事業部事業第二グループ主席 2000 年 3 月 出向 三井石油開発㈱ 事業部担当部長 2002 年 7 月 三井物産㈱ 石油資源開発部次長 2003 年 7 月 三井物産㈱ 石油貿易部次長 2005 年 5 月 豪州三井物産株式会社パース支店長 2007 年 11 月 三井物産㈱ エネルギー第一本部石炭部 2008 年 5 月 三井物産㈱ エネルギー第一本部石炭部長
Fumiaki Iwahashi Education: 1978 Career:
1978 1986 1987 1989 1993 1994 1995 1998 2000 2002 2003 2005 2007 2008
Graduated from Hitotsubashi University
(Faculty of Social Science)
Joined Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo) Petroleum Div. Took Mitsui-Energy Overseas Training Course （Los Angeles, New York, London） Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), Carbon Div. Mitsui & Co. (U.S.A) Inc. Los Angeles Office, Assistant General Manager of Energy Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), Assistant General Manager of Petroleum Trading Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), General Manager, Naphtha Dept. Petroleum Trading Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), Chief Strategist, Corporate Planning Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), General Manager, Business Dept. Energy Project Div. (Secondment) Mitsui Oil Exploration Co., Ltd., General Manager, Business Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd, (Tokyo), Deputy General Manager of E&P Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), Deputy General Manager, Petroleum Trading Div. Mitsui & Co. (Australia) Ltd., General Manager of Perth Office Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), Coal Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), General Manager of Coal Div.
L-2-13
COAL SUPPLY & DEMAND Fumiaki Iwahashi General Manager, Coal Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd.
ABSTRACT ♦Originally, coal is a commodity with strong “PRODUCE LOCALLY AND CONSUME LOCALLY character. i.e.) World Coal Production Approx. 5,400 Mil. MT (2007, excluding lignite) out of the above) Internationally Traded Volume Approx.800 Mil. MT (approx 15% of total production) ♦ IEA (International Energy Agency) predicts that the world’s total coal production and consumption will increase by about 1,600 Mil. MT from 2007 to 2015, approx. 7,000 Mil. MT. At a glance, it seems that production and consumption are roughly in balance, but the real trend is that the supply capacity expansion is chasing after strong demand. The internationally traded volume is equally expected to increase from 800 Mil. MT to the 1,100 Mil. MT level. ♦ Both the production and the consumption volume of China, US, and India are approx 3/4th of the world total. The key factors in the near future will be the increase in demand in China and India and the supply capacity of Australia and Indonesia. In 2015, production and consumption will almost balance in China and US whereas the forecasts for India anticipate that consumption will outstrip production on a large scale. With regard to China, the demand for steam coal, centering on use in the electricity sector, will see substantial increase. ♦ Steam coal demands for coal-fired thermal power generation will be vigorous not only in China and India but in all parts of the world (Southeast Asia, Europe, North America, Middle East, etc.) The way these programs progress will have an impact on the supply and demand situation. ♦ Similarly, the expansion of demand for coal for coking coal mainly in China and India will need a close watch in much the same way as for steam coal.
L-2-1
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
L-2-2
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
要約
元々、石炭は「地産地消」の性格が強い商品。 i.e.
世界の石炭生産
うち
国際貿易量
約 54 億トン 約
8 億トン
（2007 年、褐炭を除く） （全体の約 15％）
IEA（International Energy Agency）予想では、全世界の石炭を 2007 年から 2015 年にかけて生 産も消費も約 16 億トン増加し約 70 億トンと予測している。一見すると生産と消費はほぼバランス しているが、実際の動きとしては旺盛な需要を供給力の拡張が追い掛けていく形。国際貿易量は同 様に 8 億トンから 11 億トン台への増加が見込まれる。
生産量・消費量とも中国、米国、インドで世界の約 3/4 を占める。近い将来のキーは中国とインド の需要の伸び、及び供給サイドでの豪州とインドネシア。2015 年には、中国と米国は生産と消費 がほぼ拮抗する一方、インドは消費が生産を大幅に上回る見通し。中国については、電力用を中心 とした一般炭の需要の伸びが大きいと予想される。
石炭火力発電向け電力炭需要は中国・インドのみならず、世界各地（東南アジア、欧州、北米、中 東など）で旺盛であり、これら計画の進捗が需給状況に影響する。
原料炭に就いても一般炭同様、中国・インドを中心とした需要の伸びを注視する必要がある。
L-2-3
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
COAL SUPPLY & DEMAND
September 4, 2008 Mitsui & Co., Ltd. September, 2008
F.Iwahashi
1
COAL – from the viewpoint of Business • Ample Reserves – Confirmed 1 Trillion MT Recoverable about 160-200Years Oil：40 Yrs Gas： 60 Yrs •
Produced all over the world
- ‘Local Consumption of local products’ - Production 5,400Mil.MT(2007) Overseas Trade 800Mil.MT (15%) * Excluding Brown coal
• •
•
Competitive Price – Calorific Value Basis CIF Price/Kcal Coal : Gas : Oil = 1 : 2 : 3 (2006 Statistics) Variable Usage ① Cokes Materials ② Fuel ③ Coal-Chemical, IGCC, For H2 Production etc. To add values as ‘Environmentally-Friendly’ Coal CO2 Separation, CCS Technology etc.
September, 2008
2
L-2-4
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
Global Coal Supply & Demand Demand
Supply Others 879
Indonesia 214 Australia 319
2007 5,395
USA 1,048
Indonesia 310
China 2,525
India 410
Others 1,238
Australia 508 USA 1,048
2015 7,047 India 622
China 3,321
Balance (2007) China +19 India -56 USA +8 Australia +247 Indonesia +176 Others -379 Total +15
Balance (2015) China +47 India -215 USA -10 Australia +401 Indonesia +210 Others -445 Total -12
Indonesia 38 Australia 72
Others 1,078
Others 1,502 Indonesia 100 Australia 107
Japan 180
2007 5,380 USA 1,040
(mln t)
China 2,506
India 466
Japan 181
2015 7,059
China 3,274
USA 1,058 India 837
September, 2008
3
September, 2008
4
L-2-5
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
September, 2008
5
Supply & Demand in general - Asia • After Year 2000, about 80Mil.-100Mil.Tons of Coal Exportability has been decreased in Asia – China/India • Infrastructure Problems (Capacity of Railway & Port Facility) in Australia • Demand will be increasing, while increased export capacity will mitigate the situation (to some extent ?)
September, 2008
6
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
China & India 2000-2007
China Net Export
Milt 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2000
2001
year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Indian Import
2002
2003
2004
export 54,992 89,928 83,810 93,885 86,657 71,676 63,235 53,092
2005
China import Net export 2,116 52,876 2,493 87,435 10,664 73,146 10,761 83,124 18,611 68,046 26,171 45,505 38,244 24,991 51,016 2,076
2006
(kt) India import 21,000 20,700 23,100 21,400 28,400 37,100 45,300 51,300
2007
Source: “Trade Statistics of China”, “Coal Information 2004, 2005, and 2007”, and “Port Information (India)” September, 2008
7
Seaborne Coal Volume & Balance (mln t)
1400 Total Demand
1200 1000
Metallurgical Coal Supply
800 600 Thermal Coal Supply
400 200 0 2007 (mln t) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
2008
2009
2010
Thermal Coal
2007
2008
2009
2010
September, 2008 Indonesia Australia
2011 Others
2011
2012
(mln t) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2012
2015
Demand
2015 Metallurgical Coal
2007
2008 Australia
L-2-7
2009
2010
Canada
2011 Others
2012 Demand8
2015
Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
Seaborne Coal Volume & Balance
Met Coal Supply
2007 206
2008 221
2009 236
2010 254
2011 273
2012 284
2015 305 201
Australia
126
136
149
158
173
183
Canada
27
29
30
30
30
30
30
Others
53
56
57
66
70
71
74
Thermal Coal Supply
642
657
681
692
714
729
820
Australia
121
124
133
136
140
145
200
Indonesia
174
180
185
189
191
195
200
Others
347
353
363
367
383
389
420
848 214 674 888 -8 -32 -40
878 223 704 927 -2 -47 -49
917 236 723 959 0 -42 -42
946 252 744 996 2 -52 -50
987 273 759 1,032 0 -45 -45
1,013 289 781 1,070 -5 -52 -57
1,125 315 853 1,168 -10 -33 -43
Total Supply Met Coal Demand Thermal Coal Demand Total Demand Met Coal Balance Thermal Coal Balance Total Balance
Remark: Seaborne coal supply of 2007 (848 mln t) accounts for only 16% of the global production of the same year (5,395 mln t). This is because large producing countries, such as China (2,525 mln t), USA (1,048 mln t) and India (410 mln t), consume the most part of one’s coal production. September, 2008 9
World Primary Energy Consumption by Region, 1971 - 2030 Million tons Oil Equivalent
Annual Growth Rate 1971-2004 2005-2030 World
2.2%
1.7%
Asia
4.7%
2.8%
North America 1.2%
1.0%
•
World primary energy consumption is projected to increase by 56% from 2004 to 2030.
•
The most rapid growth in energy consumption is projected for nations in Asia, mainly India and China.
•
Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries increases by 95%, compared with 24% in the OECD countries
Asia
North America
Europe (OECD) Europe (Non-OECD) South America
Middle East Africa Oceania 2030
Sources: Institute of Energy Economics Japan, International Energy Outlook 2007 (EIA)
September, 2008
10
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1971 - 2030 Million tons Oil Equivalent Annual Growth Rate 1971-2004
•
Fossil Fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) are expected to continue to supply much of the energy used world wide, providing 88% of world energy consumed from 2004 to 2030.
•
Coal is the growing energy source worldwide for the industrial sector (including the steel industry) and electric power sector, largely because of its ample reserves and cost competitiveness.
•
Use of nuclear power, hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources is expected to continue to expand, but their share of total world energy consumption is 11 expected to be rather limited.
2005-2030
Oil
1.5%
1.5%
Coal
2.0%
1.6%
Natural Gas
3.0%
2.1%
Total
2.2%
1.7%
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydroelectricity
Renewable
Sources: Institute of Energy Economics Japan, International Energy Outlook 2007 (EIA)
September, 2008
Coal - Indispensable and Competitive Energy Source for Electricity Generation •
Replaced by Nuclear, Wind and Solar in the near future? – Nuclear: • There are many plans to build new nuclear power plants. • But, the lead time between deciding to build a nuclear power station and actually building / commissioning would be in the range of 10 – 20 years. • Key equipment for nuclear power plants such as reactors and reactor coolant pumps are currently produced by only one machinery maker in Japan, and supply of such key equipment is expected to be the bottleneck for new nuclear power plant. – Wind and Solar : • Higher CAPEX and vast site area required. - CAPEX for a 1,000MW Oil & LNG Coal Nuclear Windmill Solar battery
Power Station US$ 1.0 billion US$ 1.2 billion US$ 5.0 billion US$10.0 billion (requiring 246 square kilo meters) US$60.0 billion (requiring 67 square kilo meters)
September, 2008
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China and India - Electricity ConsumptionNet Electricity Consumption per capita ( KWh ) 18,000 India
16,000
China
Japan
14,000
12,608 11,169
12,000
9,358
10,000
7,391
8,000
6,161
4,129
6,000 4,000 2,000
15,395
United States
303 477
485 1,286
1,194
0 1990
2003
2030
Source : International Energy Outlook 2006 / Energy Information Administration
z China still has a lot of potential to increase its energy consumption, still being 1/5 of Japan’s as of 2003 and projected to expand more than 3 times by 2030. z India is rapidly catching up, having even more potential than China over the long run as its population is expected outstrip that of China within a few decades. September, 2008
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INDIA -Coal Demand• Our estimate of thermal coal import CY07 29Mt CY10 46Mt CY15 143Mt • Indian government initiates “Ultra MW Projects”(4,000MW x 9). • 5～6 projects will use import coal (approx.70Mt) demand during CY11～17. • 15 other projects for import coal by CY13. Another 30mt demand increase. • Power plants designed for high energy foreign coal. •Coastal based boilers expected to use import coal mainly due to high rail freight. Red point : Ultra MW project (using import coal) Yellow point : Ultra MW project (using domestic coal) Green point : Existing coal-fired plants September, 2008 Green-colored area : Main coal production area
D is t a n c e ( k m ) O n e 0-10 0 200 300 400 500 611 750 1 ,0 0 0 1 ,2 5 0
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w ay
P e r 1 0 0 k g(R s ) 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10
U SD 1 9 7 5 3 2 3 2 2
.6 .7 .5 .2 .1 .4 .2 .8 .6
8 5 4 8 5 8 1 7 8
p e r to n n e 2 .7 4 .6 6 .4 8 .1 9 .9 1 2 .1 1 4 .6 1 9 .1 2 3 .7
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
Confidential
World Traded Volume – Thermal Coal (Mil t) 950
World Total Demand
World Total Supply
850
India
750
China
650
Others 550 2007
2008
2009
Others (demand)
2010
China (demand)
2011
India (demand)
2012 Total Supply
2015
(CY)
Source: AME Export Thermal Coal 2008, IEA Statistics Coal Information 2007, EIA World Energy Outlook 2007, Mitsui Research Team
September, 2008
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China and India - Steel Production Apparent Steel Use per capita ( kg ) 700 600
664
Japan
United States
617
618 397
400
385
269
300
100
China
440
500
200
India
28 92
39
63
0 1996
2006
2015
369 43% of the Chinese population is living in urban area mainly along the coastal. In Chinese urban areas, apparent steel use per capita has already reached 626 kg – the same as Japan. That is why we estimate that China growth as a whole will slow down from now until their Government succeeds in its Go-West 2030 campaign.
z So far during this decade, Chinese growth in apparent steel use per capita has been much higher than its growth in energy consumption, being half of Japan’s as of 2006. z While it still has potential for further growth, the rate of growth is expected to be more subdued. z India has just started to grow, having great potential for further sharp growth. Source : World Steel Dynamics / International Energy Outlook 2006 / Mitsui’s estimate
September, 2008
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
World Traded Volume – Metallurgical Coal (Mil t) 500
World Total Demand
World Total Supply
400
300
India 200
Others 100 2007
2008 Others (demand)
2009 China (demand)
2010 India (demand)
2011
2012 Total Supply
2015
(CY)
Source: IISI Medium Term Outlook, IEA Statistics Coal Information 2007, Barlow Jonker Coal Supply Series, Mitsui Research Team
September, 2008
17
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Clean Coal Day in Japan 2008
いわはし
ふみあき
氏名： 岩 橋
史明
学歴： 1978 年 3 月
一橋大学社会学部卒業
職歴： 1978 年 4 月 三井物産株式会社入社 石油部 1986 年 7 月 三井物産㈱ エネルギー部門 海外研修員 （ロスアンゼルス・ ニューヨーク・ロンドン） 1987 年 7 月 三井物産㈱ 炭素部 1989 年 2 月 米国三井物産㈱ ロスアンゼルス支店 エネルギー部 アシスタント・ゼネラル・ マネージャー 1993 年 2 月 三井物産㈱ 石油貿易部 課長代理 1994 年 10 月 同課長 1995 年 9 月 三井物産㈱ 業務部経営企画室 1998 年 9 月 三井物産㈱ エネルギー事業部事業第二グループ主席 2000 年 3 月 出向 三井石油開発㈱ 事業部担当部長 2002 年 7 月 三井物産㈱ 石油資源開発部次長 2003 年 7 月 三井物産㈱ 石油貿易部次長 2005 年 5 月 豪州三井物産株式会社パース支店長 2007 年 11 月 三井物産㈱ エネルギー第一本部石炭部 2008 年 5 月 三井物産㈱ エネルギー第一本部石炭部長
Fumiaki Iwahashi Education: 1978 Career:
1978 1986 1987 1989 1993 1994 1995 1998 2000 2002 2003 2005 2007 2008
Graduated from Hitotsubashi University
(Faculty of Social Science)
Joined Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo) Petroleum Div. Took Mitsui-Energy Overseas Training Course （Los Angeles, New York, London） Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), Carbon Div. Mitsui & Co. (U.S.A) Inc. Los Angeles Office, Assistant General Manager of Energy Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), Assistant General Manager of Petroleum Trading Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), General Manager, Naphtha Dept. Petroleum Trading Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), Chief Strategist, Corporate Planning Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), General Manager, Business Dept. Energy Project Div. (Secondment) Mitsui Oil Exploration Co., Ltd., General Manager, Business Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd, (Tokyo), Deputy General Manager of E&P Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), Deputy General Manager, Petroleum Trading Div. Mitsui & Co. (Australia) Ltd., General Manager of Perth Office Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), Coal Div. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo), General Manager of Coal Div.
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