COMMODITY ENERGY & METALS Daily Update DOLLAR INDEX ...
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited Research
COMMODITY ENERGY & METALS Daily Update
‐
July 7, 2011
COMMODITY PERSPECTIVE. Three Bad Harbingers hit the Markets
☺
☺
Three bad harbingers for global growth rocked the euro on Wednesday, pushing the single currency down 1% below $1.43. A China interest‐rate hike, soft U.S. economic data and the aftermath of a ratings downgrade for Portugal spurred investors to sell the euro and scurry to the U.S. dollar. And now the market worries that Ireland's credit ratings will be cut soon after downgrades of Portugal and Greece. COMEX Gold and silver futures prices ended with solid gains Wednesday, on fresh safe‐haven investment demand amid the ongoing European Union sovereign debt crisis. A five‐week‐old downtrend line on the daily chart was penetrated on the upside Wednesday and would be negated with follow‐through buying strength today. Base Metals closed yesterday nearly unchanged, prices were hammered after the rate Hike announcement, but supply disruptions pulled the prices back to higher levels. Supply disruptions in Chile and Indonesia may continue to provide a strong floor for copper prices in the short term. We've seen a steady rise in open interest over the past week. There has definitely been a run‐up in investment demand that has supported this increase in price. Precious metals are likely to be volatile, writes, triggered by volatility in the EUR ahead of ECB's meeting outcome and Trichet's comments later in the global day; Ground adds precious metals, mostly gold and silver, "will be particularly susceptible." An interest rate hike by the ECB could help boost the EUR and also gold, which tends to move inversely to the USD.
DOLLAR INDEX – Daily Chart
Commodity‐Dollar Gold Silver Crude Oil Base Metals
Correlation 91.71% 88.82% 88.84% 83.19%
The greenback continued shining on the back of European turmoil as after the Portugal Sovereign rate cut, Ireland seems to be in line. The trend was than supported by the optimism that presidential meeting with lawmakers over the fixes in the government’s finance will give positive result. S1 74.75, S2 74.20, R1 75.50, R2 76
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
GLOBAL ECONOMIC UPDATE China raised benchmark interest rates for the third time this year, adding to efforts to cool the world’s fastest‐ growing economy after inflation accelerated to the quickest pace since 2008. After the debacle in Greece last week, this week’s EU debt crisis issue is Portugal. Moody’s on Tuesday downgraded Portugal’s sovereign debt to junk status. The Standard & Poor’s ratings agency this week reportedly said Greece could soon be technically in default on its loans if they are rolled over and extended. With the keen interest in the U.S. debt piling up and the congressional wrangling taking place on the U.S. national debt, the market place is extra sensitive to debt issues. Service industries’ growth in US as indicated by ISM Non‐Manufacturing Index has decreased to 53.3, less than projected, from 54.6 in May. Today there prevails ECB Interest rate Decision, ADP Employment Change and US Jobless Claims to be released.
1
Commodity Energy & Metals Update
BULLION – COMEX Silver Daily Chart
ENERGY – NYMEX Crude Oil Daily Chart
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
July 7, 2011
Bullions continued trading on the positive ground on the back of rising expectation that after Greek bailout and Portugal rate cut Spain is inline. The interest rate hike by china as well as indication of another European country being in rate cut series has increased the heaven demand resulting into the support of precious metals price rise. Gold gained 1.15% or $12 crossing $1530 with the domestic Gold trading strong with 22200 being crossed. Silver for September delivery rose $1, or 1.8 percent, to $36 an ounce. It remained strong at the domestic front while crossing 54000 level. We expect bullion to trade positive today on continued tensions over gloomy economic outlook. Silver may trade around 54500‐55000 with MCX Gold expected to trade around 22300. Gold: S1 22140, S2 22080, R1 22340, R2 22450 Silver: S1 53200, S2 52500 R1 54500 R2 55800
Crude oil futures pared previous gains traded little down near $96 on economic growth concerns after China raised key interest rates and Moody’s downgraded Portugal’s credit rating. The more pressure came in the evening session on weak US services data backed by poor equity indices. U.S. crude inventories are expected to decline by 2.5 mb from 359.5 million in while gasoline stockpiles may increase 1 mb from 213.2 million the week ended July 1. Natural gas futures fell more than 1% traded below $4.30 on moderate weather and expectation of bearish inventory data. Natural gas stockpiles are expected to rise by 81 Bcf against prior rise of 78 Bcf. We expect oil prices to trade sideways to up with expectations of bullish inventory data despite weak investment sentiments. NYMEX crude oil has important resistance at $98, support at $92. Crude Oil S1: 4270, S2: 4230, R1: 4340, R2: 4380. Natural Gas S1: 189, S2: 187, R1: 195, R2: 198 2
July 7, 2011
Commodity Energy & Metals Update
BASE METALS – MCX Zinc Daily Chart
Base metals continued its uptrend on supply disruptions in Indonesia and Chile ignoring effect of China’s interest rate hike. Some of the world's biggest copper mines face strike‐related disruptions and weather disturbance which may adversely affect supplies. LME 3 month copper fairly sustained above $9500 mark with battery material lead climbed above $2700 on chart based buying, while zinc and nickel also managed to follow copper’s rally. In Indonesia, a strike for higher pay has paralyzed output at Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold's giant Grasberg mine. In Chile, some workers at state‐owned Codelco are planning a one‐day walk‐out, while unions in Peru called off a two‐day strike at the last moment. China raised interest rates for the third time this year on Wednesday to tame the inflation, not a surprise move as it was expected, however some analysts expects that China’s monetary tightening cycle may be close to or near to end. Technical levels: Copper (Aug): S1=426, R1=430 Nickel(July): S1=1035, R1=1055 Lead(July): S1=119 R1=121 Zinc(July): S1=105.50 R1=107 Steel long(July): S1=30100 R1=30500
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS Commodity Aluminium Copper Nickel Zinc Lead Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
Warehouse Stocks
+/‐ Change
Cancelled Warrants
+/‐ Change
4458800 461275 105480 855850 311650
‐6325 ‐1225 ‐324 ‐3900 ‐3250
422625 19175 5064 27375 50225
‐5975 ‐775 ‐198 ‐3150 ‐3800
3
July 7, 2011
Commodity Energy & Metals Update
EXCHANGE MOVEMENT
DOMESTIC EXCHANGE Commodity Gold Silver Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Steel Crude Oil Natural Gas
Contract Aug Sep Aug July July July July July July
Open 22255.00 53250.00 427.35 1042.00 106.30 119.65 30400.00 4331.00 195.20
High 22530.00 54378.00 428.25 1051.80 106.80 119.95 30430.00 4349.00 195.20
Low 22230.00 52765.00 424.35 1036.60 105.50 118.55 30170.00 4273.00 189.40
Close 22473.00 54085.00 426.70 1041.50 105.70 119.40 30260.00 4300.00 190.10
% Chng 1.04 3.66 ‐0.32 ‐0.28 ‐0.99 ‐0.38 ‐0.46 ‐0.74 ‐2.75
Open Int 1988 13481 28701 8649 3498 4853 44160 22990 10763
% Chng 6% 4% 5% 4% ‐5% ‐6% 3% 10% ‐68%
Volume 5386 2668 3610 1422 946 1412 50 5760 1130
%Chng 55% 43% 15% 52% 2% ‐40% 55% 18% ‐87%
INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE Commodity Gold Silver Copper Nickel Zinc Lead Crude Oil Natural Gas
Exchange COMEX COMEX LME COMEX LME LME LME NYMEX NYMEX
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
Open 1516.20 35.49 9530.00 434.10 23350.00 2400.00 2695.00 97.00 4.36
High 1534.50 36.29 9547.00 434.80 23580.00 2410.00 2701.00 97.79 4.36
Low 1510.30 35.07 9449.85 430.10 23160.00 2377.25 2666.00 95.90 4.21
Close 1529.20 35.92 9521.00 433.50 23380.00 2380.00 2700.00 96.65 4.22
% Chng 1.09 1.44 ‐0.20 ‐0.29 0.35 ‐1.28 0.00 ‐0.25 ‐3.37
Open Int 298363 57160 3015 83565 570 3078 1026 291009 152077
% Chng 3% 1% ‐38% ‐5% ‐161% ‐93% ‐40% 3% 6%
Volume 6190 1464 1472 1663 104 317 176 5743 228
%Chng ‐8% 26% 14% ‐3% ‐16% 52% ‐28% 5% 8%
4
July 7, 2011
Commodity Energy & Metals Update
TECHNICAL LEVELS Commodity
Contract Aug Sep Aug July July July July July July
Gold Silver Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Steel Crude Oil Natural Gas
S3 21992 51494 420.7 1019.6 103.9 117.3 29883.3 4189.7 182.1
S2 22111 52130 422.5 1028.1 104.7 117.9 30026.7 4231.3 185.8
S1 22292 53107 424.6 1034.8 105.2 118.7 30143.3 4265.7 187.9
R1 22592 54720 428.5 1050.0 106.5 120.1 30403.3 4341.7 193.7
R2 22711 55356 430.3 1058.5 107.3 120.7 30546.7 4383.3 197.4
R3 22892 56333 432.4 1065.2 107.8 121.5 30663.3 4417.7 199.5
ECONOMIC DATA Date
Country 6/7/2011 7/7/2011
Time
Consensus
Previous
Actual
USA
MBA Mortgage Applications
16:30
‐‐
‐2.70%
‐5.20%
USA
ISM Non‐Manf. Composite
19:30
53.5
54.6
53.3
JAPAN
Machine Orders YOY%
5:20
10.80%
‐0.20%
‐‐
INDIA
Primary Articles WPI YoY
12:00
‐‐
11.84%
‐‐
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
14:00
‐0.60%
‐1.20%
‐‐
UK
BOE ANNOUNCES RATES
16:30
0.50%
0.50%
‐‐
ECB Announces Interest Rates
17:15
1.50%
1.25%
‐‐
USA
ADP Employment Change
17:45
70K
38K
‐‐
USA
Initial Jobless Claims
18:00
‐‐
428K
‐‐
USA
Continuing Claims
18:00
‐‐
3702K
‐‐
EURO
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
Event
5
July 7, 2011
Commodity Energy & Metals Update
INTRADAY CALLS COVERED Commodity
Reco
Time
Reco. Price
Covering Price
Time
Gain Lot Margin Margin /loss Size % Money 06‐July‐2011
Profit Per Contract
ROI (%)
Target Achieved
Crude oil
Long
14:10
4310
4290
16:04
‐20
100
5.5
23705
‐2000
‐8.44
SL Trgd
Gold
Long
12:06
22040
22005
16:04
‐35
100
4
88160
‐3500
‐3.97
SL Trgd
Silver
Long
10:53
53600
53900
12:07
300
30
13
209040
9000
4.31
Achieved
Silver
Long
13:56
53740
53540
16:04
‐200
30
13
209586
‐6000
‐2.86
SL Trgd
Nickel
Long
12:09
1050.00
1045.00
13:31
‐5
250
7
18375
‐1250
‐6.80
SL Trgd
Copper
Long
12:04
428.00
426.50
13:03
‐1.5
1000
5
21400
‐1500
‐7.01
SL Trgd
Zinc
Short
14:59
106.40
105.70
16:40
0.70
5000
7.64
40645
3500
8.61
Achieved
Nickel
Short
16:32
1039.00
1046.00
19:10
‐7
250
7
18183
‐1750
‐9.62
SL Trgd
Silver
Short
16:28
53500
53350
16:35
150
30
13
208650
4500
2.16
Achieved
Silver
Short
16:36
53200
53000
16:47
200
30
13
207480
6000
2.89
Achieved
Silver
Short
16:48
52900
53020
16:56
‐120
30
13
206310
‐3600
‐1.74
SL Trgd
Silver
Short
17:21
52950
53070
17:38
‐120
30
13
206505
‐3600
‐1.74
SL Trgd
Gold
Long
18:00
22050
22080
18:11
30
100
4
88200
3000
3.40
Achieved
Gold
Long
18:14
22085
22115
18:23
30
100
4
88340
3000
3.40
Achieved
Gold
Long
18:26
22125
22155
18:33
30
100
4
88500
3000
3.39
Achieved
Crude oil
Long
18:25
4300
4324
19:05
24
100
5.5
23650
2400
10.15
Achieved
Gold
Long
19:48
22195
22170
19:52
‐25
100
4
88780
‐2500
‐2.82
SL Trgd
Silver
Long
21:03
54250
54100
21:19
‐150
30
13
211575
‐4500
‐2.13
SL Trgd
Gold
Long
21:04
22250
22230
21:10
‐20
100
4
89000
‐2000
‐2.25
SL Trgd
Total
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
2200
6
Edelweiss Financial Advisors Limited, C‐10, Laxmi Towers, Bandra Kurla Complex Commodity Energy‐ 400 & Metals Update Bandra (East), Mumbai 051 Board: (91‐22) 42198100, Email: [email protected]
July 7, 2011
COMMODITY TEAM Analyst Designation Specialization Avinash Gorakshakar Head ‐Research Research Renisha Chainani Manager‐ Research All Commodities Tapan Patel Research Analyst Energy Jatin Pateliya Research Analyst Base Metals Anil Panchal Research Analyst Bullions For any clarification and more information: Commodity Research Desk: 92272 60068
E‐mail [email protected] renisha.chainani@ edelweissfa.com tapan.patel@ edelweissfa.com jatin.pateliya@ edelweissfa.com anil.panchal@ edelweissfa.com
Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Edelweiss Comtrade Limited (Edelweiss). Edelweiss, its holding company and associate companies are a full service, integrated investment banking, portfolio management and brokerage group. Our research analysts and sales persons provide important input into our investment banking activities. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Edelweiss or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the commodity (ies) referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject Edelweiss and affiliates/ group companies to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The information contained herein is not for publication or distribution for non‐resident clients. The non‐resident clients are allowed to trade in commodities market only after obtaining requisite statutory approvals from the respective regulatory authorities. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this document comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. Edelweiss reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. However, Edelweiss is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Nevertheless, Edelweiss is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its client and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Neither Edelweiss nor any of its affiliates, group companies, directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject commodity (ies), and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Kindly read the Risk Disclosure Documents carefully before investing in Derivatives, Commodities or other instruments. The information provided in these reports remains, unless otherwise stated, the copyright of Edelweiss. All layout, design, original artwork, concepts and other Intellectual Properties, remains the property and copyright Edelweiss and may not be used in any form or for any purpose whatsoever by any party without the express written permission of the copyright holders.
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Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
7
COMMODITY ENERGY & METALS Daily Update
‐
July 7, 2011
COMMODITY PERSPECTIVE. Three Bad Harbingers hit the Markets
☺
☺
Three bad harbingers for global growth rocked the euro on Wednesday, pushing the single currency down 1% below $1.43. A China interest‐rate hike, soft U.S. economic data and the aftermath of a ratings downgrade for Portugal spurred investors to sell the euro and scurry to the U.S. dollar. And now the market worries that Ireland's credit ratings will be cut soon after downgrades of Portugal and Greece. COMEX Gold and silver futures prices ended with solid gains Wednesday, on fresh safe‐haven investment demand amid the ongoing European Union sovereign debt crisis. A five‐week‐old downtrend line on the daily chart was penetrated on the upside Wednesday and would be negated with follow‐through buying strength today. Base Metals closed yesterday nearly unchanged, prices were hammered after the rate Hike announcement, but supply disruptions pulled the prices back to higher levels. Supply disruptions in Chile and Indonesia may continue to provide a strong floor for copper prices in the short term. We've seen a steady rise in open interest over the past week. There has definitely been a run‐up in investment demand that has supported this increase in price. Precious metals are likely to be volatile, writes, triggered by volatility in the EUR ahead of ECB's meeting outcome and Trichet's comments later in the global day; Ground adds precious metals, mostly gold and silver, "will be particularly susceptible." An interest rate hike by the ECB could help boost the EUR and also gold, which tends to move inversely to the USD.
DOLLAR INDEX – Daily Chart
Commodity‐Dollar Gold Silver Crude Oil Base Metals
Correlation 91.71% 88.82% 88.84% 83.19%
The greenback continued shining on the back of European turmoil as after the Portugal Sovereign rate cut, Ireland seems to be in line. The trend was than supported by the optimism that presidential meeting with lawmakers over the fixes in the government’s finance will give positive result. S1 74.75, S2 74.20, R1 75.50, R2 76
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
GLOBAL ECONOMIC UPDATE China raised benchmark interest rates for the third time this year, adding to efforts to cool the world’s fastest‐ growing economy after inflation accelerated to the quickest pace since 2008. After the debacle in Greece last week, this week’s EU debt crisis issue is Portugal. Moody’s on Tuesday downgraded Portugal’s sovereign debt to junk status. The Standard & Poor’s ratings agency this week reportedly said Greece could soon be technically in default on its loans if they are rolled over and extended. With the keen interest in the U.S. debt piling up and the congressional wrangling taking place on the U.S. national debt, the market place is extra sensitive to debt issues. Service industries’ growth in US as indicated by ISM Non‐Manufacturing Index has decreased to 53.3, less than projected, from 54.6 in May. Today there prevails ECB Interest rate Decision, ADP Employment Change and US Jobless Claims to be released.
1
Commodity Energy & Metals Update
BULLION – COMEX Silver Daily Chart
ENERGY – NYMEX Crude Oil Daily Chart
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
July 7, 2011
Bullions continued trading on the positive ground on the back of rising expectation that after Greek bailout and Portugal rate cut Spain is inline. The interest rate hike by china as well as indication of another European country being in rate cut series has increased the heaven demand resulting into the support of precious metals price rise. Gold gained 1.15% or $12 crossing $1530 with the domestic Gold trading strong with 22200 being crossed. Silver for September delivery rose $1, or 1.8 percent, to $36 an ounce. It remained strong at the domestic front while crossing 54000 level. We expect bullion to trade positive today on continued tensions over gloomy economic outlook. Silver may trade around 54500‐55000 with MCX Gold expected to trade around 22300. Gold: S1 22140, S2 22080, R1 22340, R2 22450 Silver: S1 53200, S2 52500 R1 54500 R2 55800
Crude oil futures pared previous gains traded little down near $96 on economic growth concerns after China raised key interest rates and Moody’s downgraded Portugal’s credit rating. The more pressure came in the evening session on weak US services data backed by poor equity indices. U.S. crude inventories are expected to decline by 2.5 mb from 359.5 million in while gasoline stockpiles may increase 1 mb from 213.2 million the week ended July 1. Natural gas futures fell more than 1% traded below $4.30 on moderate weather and expectation of bearish inventory data. Natural gas stockpiles are expected to rise by 81 Bcf against prior rise of 78 Bcf. We expect oil prices to trade sideways to up with expectations of bullish inventory data despite weak investment sentiments. NYMEX crude oil has important resistance at $98, support at $92. Crude Oil S1: 4270, S2: 4230, R1: 4340, R2: 4380. Natural Gas S1: 189, S2: 187, R1: 195, R2: 198 2
July 7, 2011
Commodity Energy & Metals Update
BASE METALS – MCX Zinc Daily Chart
Base metals continued its uptrend on supply disruptions in Indonesia and Chile ignoring effect of China’s interest rate hike. Some of the world's biggest copper mines face strike‐related disruptions and weather disturbance which may adversely affect supplies. LME 3 month copper fairly sustained above $9500 mark with battery material lead climbed above $2700 on chart based buying, while zinc and nickel also managed to follow copper’s rally. In Indonesia, a strike for higher pay has paralyzed output at Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold's giant Grasberg mine. In Chile, some workers at state‐owned Codelco are planning a one‐day walk‐out, while unions in Peru called off a two‐day strike at the last moment. China raised interest rates for the third time this year on Wednesday to tame the inflation, not a surprise move as it was expected, however some analysts expects that China’s monetary tightening cycle may be close to or near to end. Technical levels: Copper (Aug): S1=426, R1=430 Nickel(July): S1=1035, R1=1055 Lead(July): S1=119 R1=121 Zinc(July): S1=105.50 R1=107 Steel long(July): S1=30100 R1=30500
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS Commodity Aluminium Copper Nickel Zinc Lead Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
Warehouse Stocks
+/‐ Change
Cancelled Warrants
+/‐ Change
4458800 461275 105480 855850 311650
‐6325 ‐1225 ‐324 ‐3900 ‐3250
422625 19175 5064 27375 50225
‐5975 ‐775 ‐198 ‐3150 ‐3800
3
July 7, 2011
Commodity Energy & Metals Update
EXCHANGE MOVEMENT
DOMESTIC EXCHANGE Commodity Gold Silver Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Steel Crude Oil Natural Gas
Contract Aug Sep Aug July July July July July July
Open 22255.00 53250.00 427.35 1042.00 106.30 119.65 30400.00 4331.00 195.20
High 22530.00 54378.00 428.25 1051.80 106.80 119.95 30430.00 4349.00 195.20
Low 22230.00 52765.00 424.35 1036.60 105.50 118.55 30170.00 4273.00 189.40
Close 22473.00 54085.00 426.70 1041.50 105.70 119.40 30260.00 4300.00 190.10
% Chng 1.04 3.66 ‐0.32 ‐0.28 ‐0.99 ‐0.38 ‐0.46 ‐0.74 ‐2.75
Open Int 1988 13481 28701 8649 3498 4853 44160 22990 10763
% Chng 6% 4% 5% 4% ‐5% ‐6% 3% 10% ‐68%
Volume 5386 2668 3610 1422 946 1412 50 5760 1130
%Chng 55% 43% 15% 52% 2% ‐40% 55% 18% ‐87%
INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE Commodity Gold Silver Copper Nickel Zinc Lead Crude Oil Natural Gas
Exchange COMEX COMEX LME COMEX LME LME LME NYMEX NYMEX
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
Open 1516.20 35.49 9530.00 434.10 23350.00 2400.00 2695.00 97.00 4.36
High 1534.50 36.29 9547.00 434.80 23580.00 2410.00 2701.00 97.79 4.36
Low 1510.30 35.07 9449.85 430.10 23160.00 2377.25 2666.00 95.90 4.21
Close 1529.20 35.92 9521.00 433.50 23380.00 2380.00 2700.00 96.65 4.22
% Chng 1.09 1.44 ‐0.20 ‐0.29 0.35 ‐1.28 0.00 ‐0.25 ‐3.37
Open Int 298363 57160 3015 83565 570 3078 1026 291009 152077
% Chng 3% 1% ‐38% ‐5% ‐161% ‐93% ‐40% 3% 6%
Volume 6190 1464 1472 1663 104 317 176 5743 228
%Chng ‐8% 26% 14% ‐3% ‐16% 52% ‐28% 5% 8%
4
July 7, 2011
Commodity Energy & Metals Update
TECHNICAL LEVELS Commodity
Contract Aug Sep Aug July July July July July July
Gold Silver Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Steel Crude Oil Natural Gas
S3 21992 51494 420.7 1019.6 103.9 117.3 29883.3 4189.7 182.1
S2 22111 52130 422.5 1028.1 104.7 117.9 30026.7 4231.3 185.8
S1 22292 53107 424.6 1034.8 105.2 118.7 30143.3 4265.7 187.9
R1 22592 54720 428.5 1050.0 106.5 120.1 30403.3 4341.7 193.7
R2 22711 55356 430.3 1058.5 107.3 120.7 30546.7 4383.3 197.4
R3 22892 56333 432.4 1065.2 107.8 121.5 30663.3 4417.7 199.5
ECONOMIC DATA Date
Country 6/7/2011 7/7/2011
Time
Consensus
Previous
Actual
USA
MBA Mortgage Applications
16:30
‐‐
‐2.70%
‐5.20%
USA
ISM Non‐Manf. Composite
19:30
53.5
54.6
53.3
JAPAN
Machine Orders YOY%
5:20
10.80%
‐0.20%
‐‐
INDIA
Primary Articles WPI YoY
12:00
‐‐
11.84%
‐‐
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
14:00
‐0.60%
‐1.20%
‐‐
UK
BOE ANNOUNCES RATES
16:30
0.50%
0.50%
‐‐
ECB Announces Interest Rates
17:15
1.50%
1.25%
‐‐
USA
ADP Employment Change
17:45
70K
38K
‐‐
USA
Initial Jobless Claims
18:00
‐‐
428K
‐‐
USA
Continuing Claims
18:00
‐‐
3702K
‐‐
EURO
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
Event
5
July 7, 2011
Commodity Energy & Metals Update
INTRADAY CALLS COVERED Commodity
Reco
Time
Reco. Price
Covering Price
Time
Gain Lot Margin Margin /loss Size % Money 06‐July‐2011
Profit Per Contract
ROI (%)
Target Achieved
Crude oil
Long
14:10
4310
4290
16:04
‐20
100
5.5
23705
‐2000
‐8.44
SL Trgd
Gold
Long
12:06
22040
22005
16:04
‐35
100
4
88160
‐3500
‐3.97
SL Trgd
Silver
Long
10:53
53600
53900
12:07
300
30
13
209040
9000
4.31
Achieved
Silver
Long
13:56
53740
53540
16:04
‐200
30
13
209586
‐6000
‐2.86
SL Trgd
Nickel
Long
12:09
1050.00
1045.00
13:31
‐5
250
7
18375
‐1250
‐6.80
SL Trgd
Copper
Long
12:04
428.00
426.50
13:03
‐1.5
1000
5
21400
‐1500
‐7.01
SL Trgd
Zinc
Short
14:59
106.40
105.70
16:40
0.70
5000
7.64
40645
3500
8.61
Achieved
Nickel
Short
16:32
1039.00
1046.00
19:10
‐7
250
7
18183
‐1750
‐9.62
SL Trgd
Silver
Short
16:28
53500
53350
16:35
150
30
13
208650
4500
2.16
Achieved
Silver
Short
16:36
53200
53000
16:47
200
30
13
207480
6000
2.89
Achieved
Silver
Short
16:48
52900
53020
16:56
‐120
30
13
206310
‐3600
‐1.74
SL Trgd
Silver
Short
17:21
52950
53070
17:38
‐120
30
13
206505
‐3600
‐1.74
SL Trgd
Gold
Long
18:00
22050
22080
18:11
30
100
4
88200
3000
3.40
Achieved
Gold
Long
18:14
22085
22115
18:23
30
100
4
88340
3000
3.40
Achieved
Gold
Long
18:26
22125
22155
18:33
30
100
4
88500
3000
3.39
Achieved
Crude oil
Long
18:25
4300
4324
19:05
24
100
5.5
23650
2400
10.15
Achieved
Gold
Long
19:48
22195
22170
19:52
‐25
100
4
88780
‐2500
‐2.82
SL Trgd
Silver
Long
21:03
54250
54100
21:19
‐150
30
13
211575
‐4500
‐2.13
SL Trgd
Gold
Long
21:04
22250
22230
21:10
‐20
100
4
89000
‐2000
‐2.25
SL Trgd
Total
Edelweiss Comtrade Limited
2200
6
Edelweiss Financial Advisors Limited, C‐10, Laxmi Towers, Bandra Kurla Complex Commodity Energy‐ 400 & Metals Update Bandra (East), Mumbai 051 Board: (91‐22) 42198100, Email: [email protected]
July 7, 2011
COMMODITY TEAM Analyst Designation Specialization Avinash Gorakshakar Head ‐Research Research Renisha Chainani Manager‐ Research All Commodities Tapan Patel Research Analyst Energy Jatin Pateliya Research Analyst Base Metals Anil Panchal Research Analyst Bullions For any clarification and more information: Commodity Research Desk: 92272 60068
E‐mail [email protected] renisha.chainani@ edelweissfa.com tapan.patel@ edelweissfa.com jatin.pateliya@ edelweissfa.com anil.panchal@ edelweissfa.com
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