Company Update - Global Alliance Partners
Company Update August 18, 2014
Land and Houses
Buy (TP Bt11.30)
Strong GPM leads to earnings upgrade
Price Bt10.60
Due to LH's strong pricing power and only mild competition so far, LH was able to raise the selling prices of low-rise properties, resulting in a 6M14 residential GPM of 36.1%, up from 35.5% in 6M13. We also raise the GPM in our forecasts, resulting in around 4-5% increases in 14E-16E earnings. The overwhelming response at 333 Riverside led LH to raise the selling prices and the project value from Bt6.5bn to Bt7.0bn. Maintain Buy with the 2015E TP of 11.30 (18.0x PER), which includes full dilution of LH-W3. Improved GPM thanks to strong pricing power The residential GPM rose from 35.5% in 6M13 to 36.1% in 6M14 mainly due to an increase in the GPM of low-rise properties. The low-rise GPM increased from 36.0% to 37.7% as LH was able to raise its selling prices faster than the increase in the costs of construction (around 4%) thanks to low competition in the low-rise segment. Raise GPM, cut SG&A in 2014-16 forecasts We raise the residential GPM in 14E-16E by around 1.0 ppt. Also, the SG&A-to-revenue ratios are cut by 0.3-0.4 ppt in each year of our forecasts. As a result, our earnings forecasts are raised by 4.9%, 4.3% and 4.2% in the respective years. 2014E SG&A to revenue now stands at 13.6% (vs. 6M14: 13.2%).
Stock Performance (%) 1M
3M
Absolute
1.92
3.92
12M 4.95
Relative to SET
1.39
-5.74
-9.80
Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
LH.BK/LH TB
Sector
Property Development
Paid-up Shares (m)
10,798.20
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
114.00/3,595.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
30.00/29.99
52 week High / Low (Bt)
12.40/7.90
Raises selling prices at 333 Riverside LH pre-sold 333 Riverside for a day in June 14 to existing customers. The response was overwhelming as the project was 30.0% sold (Bt2.0bn) within one day, meeting the company's target for the full year. LH then raised the project value from Bt6.5bn and Bt7.0bn, and the project is now 60.0% sold. The average selling price per sqm is now Bt140k, up from Bt120k.
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
Mr. Anant Asavabhokhin
23.76 %
Maintain Buy with 2015E TP of Bt11.30 (18.0x PER) We maintain Buy on LH with the new TP of Bt11.30, up from Bt10.80 as we raise our earnings forecasts; the TP takes into account full dilution of LH-W3. The potential upside to 14E-15E earnings is the sale of Terminal 21 (shopping mall), 60% held by LH, to REIT. The selling price should be around Bt6.0bn (GPM = 50%), and LH should hold around 15% of the fund, implying aftertax gain of Bt2.0bn.
Thai NVDR Co., Ltd.
17.93 %
GIC Private Limited - C
16.11 %
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btm) Net profit (Btm) Norm. profit (Btm) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
24,103 5,682 5,744 0.57 58.2 0.45 3.14
25,075 6,478 6,449 0.64 12.3 0.40 3.35
27,558 6,923 6,944 0.65 1.6 0.40 3.83
29,069 7,544 7,544 0.65 -0.7 0.40 3.89
36,639 9,009 9,009 0.75 15.5 0.46 4.25
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
18.7 15.8 3.38 4.25 18.68 0.83
16.4 14.9 3.17 3.77 19.93 1.00
16.3 14.0 2.77 3.81 18.65 0.84
16.3 13.2 2.73 3.79 17.26 0.79
14.1 11.5 2.50 4.38 18.42 0.79
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
23,578.00
NVDR (%)
19.03
Estimated free float (%)
52.14
Beta
1.71
Major Shareholders (06/05/2014)
FY14
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.607
0.670
KT ZMICO vs. consensus
7.1%
-3%
Company Profile The Company engages in the development of commercial buildings and residential housing. The Company develops detached houses, townhouses and condominiums in Bangkok and the surrounding areas. It also has projects in Chiang Mai, Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen and Phuket. CGR 2013
Wasu Mattanapotchanart Analyst, no. 44357 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624-6268 page 1 of 5
Figure 1: 333 Riverside’s map
Figure 2: 333 Riverside
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: Quarterly presales
Figure 4: Quarterly earnings
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 5: LH-W3 First day of trading # of warrants (million) Distributed to existing shareholders
Right of warrant holders
Exercise periods Expiration date
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 6: LH-W3’s first exercise (Jun 14) 30-May-14 1,998.2 5 existing shares: 1 warrant Each warrant could be exercised to purchase 1 share of LH at Bt3.5 per share Last working days of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec
Number of warrants exercised
772.3
% of total
38.6%
Number of remaining warrants
1,232.9
5-May-17
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 2 of 5
Figure 7: Profit margins
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 8: Distribution of backlog as of 30 Jun 14
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt)
2011 19,229 (12,981) 6,248 (3,062) 7,586 351 7,236 (310) 53 6,979 (1,399)
2012 24,103 (15,792) 8,310 (3,518) 7,819 494 7,324 (488) 68 6,904 (1,119)
2013 25,075 (15,990) 9,085 (3,436) 8,768 509 8,259 (570) 93 7,782 (1,102)
2014E 27,558 (17,534) 10,024 (3,756) 9,417 524 8,894 (656) 78 8,316 (1,207)
2015E 29,069 (18,423) 10,645 (3,984) 10,200 547 9,652 (710) 82 9,024 (1,281)
2016E 36,639 (23,692) 12,948 (5,048) 11,993 571 11,422 (762) 103 10,763 (1,522)
2,611 1,156 5,609 0.56 0.56 3,631 0.36 0.40
(83) 2,285 5,682 0.57 0.57 5,744 0.57 0.45
37 2,109 6,478 0.65 0.65 6,449 0.64 0.40
(26) 2,203 6,923 0.65 0.58 6,944 0.65 0.40
0 2,538 7,544 0.65 0.63 7,544 0.65 0.40
0 3,048 9,009 0.75 0.00 9,009 0.75 0.46
2011 1,199 105 31,472 638 27,418 60,833 8,762 17,941 30,360 10,026 30,472 60,833
2012 1,462 120 32,537 651 30,271 65,040 7,319 20,163 32,438 10,026 32,603 65,040
2013 1,166 136 38,496 616 34,955 75,369 8,507 26,104 40,526 10,026 34,843 75,369
2014E 3,396 144 45,487 600 35,873 85,501 6,398 31,104 43,440 11,225 42,061 85,501
2015E 3,800 151 53,030 559 37,421 94,961 8,579 32,000 46,727 12,024 48,234 94,961
BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E-net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long-term debt Total liabilities Paid-up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity
2016E 2,735 193 60,137 495 39,746 103,305 11,211 32,000 50,603 12,024 52,702 103,305
CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash
2011 5,609
2012 5,682
2013 6,478
2014E 6,923
2015E 7,544
2016E 9,009
(2,477) 351 (14,541) (1,011) (358) 496 138 3,317 0 (3,487) 112 (59) (932)
388 494 (13,936) 5,008 156 729 885 (363) 0 (5,266) (0) (5,629) 263
220 509 (18,490) 662 (4,082) 1,215 (2,867) 5,921 0 (3,977) (0) 1,945 (297)
0 524 (23,036) (1,534) (167) 855 688 2,891 4,196 (4,010) 0 3,077 2,231
0 547 (24,532) (1,916) (218) 949 731 3,077 2,797 (4,286) 0 1,588 403
0 571 (28,657) 95 (218) 1,095 878 2,633 0 (4,670) 0 (2,037) (1,065)
Free cash flow
(2,721)
3,663
(3,020)
(1,203)
(1,541)
511
(0.27)
0.37
(0.30)
(0.11)
(0.13)
FCF per share (Bt)
0.04
PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2011 13.8 34.3 41.2 32.5 39.5 16.6 29.2 18.9 (24.2)
2012 25.3 3.1 1.3 34.5 32.4 19.9 23.6 23.8 (24.6)
2013 4.0 12.1 14.0 36.2 35.0 22.5 25.8 25.7 (19.7)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
2014E 9.9 7.4 0.8 36.4 34.2 22.7 25.1 25.2 (20.0)
2015E 5.5 8.3 (0.4) 36.6 35.1 22.9 26.0 26.0 (20.0)
2016E 26.0 17.6 15.5 35.3 32.7 21.6 24.6 24.6 (20.0)
page 4 of 5
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals
The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 5 of 5
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Land and Houses
Buy (TP Bt11.30)
Strong GPM leads to earnings upgrade
Price Bt10.60
Due to LH's strong pricing power and only mild competition so far, LH was able to raise the selling prices of low-rise properties, resulting in a 6M14 residential GPM of 36.1%, up from 35.5% in 6M13. We also raise the GPM in our forecasts, resulting in around 4-5% increases in 14E-16E earnings. The overwhelming response at 333 Riverside led LH to raise the selling prices and the project value from Bt6.5bn to Bt7.0bn. Maintain Buy with the 2015E TP of 11.30 (18.0x PER), which includes full dilution of LH-W3. Improved GPM thanks to strong pricing power The residential GPM rose from 35.5% in 6M13 to 36.1% in 6M14 mainly due to an increase in the GPM of low-rise properties. The low-rise GPM increased from 36.0% to 37.7% as LH was able to raise its selling prices faster than the increase in the costs of construction (around 4%) thanks to low competition in the low-rise segment. Raise GPM, cut SG&A in 2014-16 forecasts We raise the residential GPM in 14E-16E by around 1.0 ppt. Also, the SG&A-to-revenue ratios are cut by 0.3-0.4 ppt in each year of our forecasts. As a result, our earnings forecasts are raised by 4.9%, 4.3% and 4.2% in the respective years. 2014E SG&A to revenue now stands at 13.6% (vs. 6M14: 13.2%).
Stock Performance (%) 1M
3M
Absolute
1.92
3.92
12M 4.95
Relative to SET
1.39
-5.74
-9.80
Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
LH.BK/LH TB
Sector
Property Development
Paid-up Shares (m)
10,798.20
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
114.00/3,595.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
30.00/29.99
52 week High / Low (Bt)
12.40/7.90
Raises selling prices at 333 Riverside LH pre-sold 333 Riverside for a day in June 14 to existing customers. The response was overwhelming as the project was 30.0% sold (Bt2.0bn) within one day, meeting the company's target for the full year. LH then raised the project value from Bt6.5bn and Bt7.0bn, and the project is now 60.0% sold. The average selling price per sqm is now Bt140k, up from Bt120k.
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
Mr. Anant Asavabhokhin
23.76 %
Maintain Buy with 2015E TP of Bt11.30 (18.0x PER) We maintain Buy on LH with the new TP of Bt11.30, up from Bt10.80 as we raise our earnings forecasts; the TP takes into account full dilution of LH-W3. The potential upside to 14E-15E earnings is the sale of Terminal 21 (shopping mall), 60% held by LH, to REIT. The selling price should be around Bt6.0bn (GPM = 50%), and LH should hold around 15% of the fund, implying aftertax gain of Bt2.0bn.
Thai NVDR Co., Ltd.
17.93 %
GIC Private Limited - C
16.11 %
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btm) Net profit (Btm) Norm. profit (Btm) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
24,103 5,682 5,744 0.57 58.2 0.45 3.14
25,075 6,478 6,449 0.64 12.3 0.40 3.35
27,558 6,923 6,944 0.65 1.6 0.40 3.83
29,069 7,544 7,544 0.65 -0.7 0.40 3.89
36,639 9,009 9,009 0.75 15.5 0.46 4.25
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
18.7 15.8 3.38 4.25 18.68 0.83
16.4 14.9 3.17 3.77 19.93 1.00
16.3 14.0 2.77 3.81 18.65 0.84
16.3 13.2 2.73 3.79 17.26 0.79
14.1 11.5 2.50 4.38 18.42 0.79
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
23,578.00
NVDR (%)
19.03
Estimated free float (%)
52.14
Beta
1.71
Major Shareholders (06/05/2014)
FY14
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.607
0.670
KT ZMICO vs. consensus
7.1%
-3%
Company Profile The Company engages in the development of commercial buildings and residential housing. The Company develops detached houses, townhouses and condominiums in Bangkok and the surrounding areas. It also has projects in Chiang Mai, Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen and Phuket. CGR 2013
Wasu Mattanapotchanart Analyst, no. 44357 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624-6268 page 1 of 5
Figure 1: 333 Riverside’s map
Figure 2: 333 Riverside
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: Quarterly presales
Figure 4: Quarterly earnings
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 5: LH-W3 First day of trading # of warrants (million) Distributed to existing shareholders
Right of warrant holders
Exercise periods Expiration date
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 6: LH-W3’s first exercise (Jun 14) 30-May-14 1,998.2 5 existing shares: 1 warrant Each warrant could be exercised to purchase 1 share of LH at Bt3.5 per share Last working days of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec
Number of warrants exercised
772.3
% of total
38.6%
Number of remaining warrants
1,232.9
5-May-17
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 2 of 5
Figure 7: Profit margins
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 8: Distribution of backlog as of 30 Jun 14
Source: LH, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt)
2011 19,229 (12,981) 6,248 (3,062) 7,586 351 7,236 (310) 53 6,979 (1,399)
2012 24,103 (15,792) 8,310 (3,518) 7,819 494 7,324 (488) 68 6,904 (1,119)
2013 25,075 (15,990) 9,085 (3,436) 8,768 509 8,259 (570) 93 7,782 (1,102)
2014E 27,558 (17,534) 10,024 (3,756) 9,417 524 8,894 (656) 78 8,316 (1,207)
2015E 29,069 (18,423) 10,645 (3,984) 10,200 547 9,652 (710) 82 9,024 (1,281)
2016E 36,639 (23,692) 12,948 (5,048) 11,993 571 11,422 (762) 103 10,763 (1,522)
2,611 1,156 5,609 0.56 0.56 3,631 0.36 0.40
(83) 2,285 5,682 0.57 0.57 5,744 0.57 0.45
37 2,109 6,478 0.65 0.65 6,449 0.64 0.40
(26) 2,203 6,923 0.65 0.58 6,944 0.65 0.40
0 2,538 7,544 0.65 0.63 7,544 0.65 0.40
0 3,048 9,009 0.75 0.00 9,009 0.75 0.46
2011 1,199 105 31,472 638 27,418 60,833 8,762 17,941 30,360 10,026 30,472 60,833
2012 1,462 120 32,537 651 30,271 65,040 7,319 20,163 32,438 10,026 32,603 65,040
2013 1,166 136 38,496 616 34,955 75,369 8,507 26,104 40,526 10,026 34,843 75,369
2014E 3,396 144 45,487 600 35,873 85,501 6,398 31,104 43,440 11,225 42,061 85,501
2015E 3,800 151 53,030 559 37,421 94,961 8,579 32,000 46,727 12,024 48,234 94,961
BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E-net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long-term debt Total liabilities Paid-up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity
2016E 2,735 193 60,137 495 39,746 103,305 11,211 32,000 50,603 12,024 52,702 103,305
CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash
2011 5,609
2012 5,682
2013 6,478
2014E 6,923
2015E 7,544
2016E 9,009
(2,477) 351 (14,541) (1,011) (358) 496 138 3,317 0 (3,487) 112 (59) (932)
388 494 (13,936) 5,008 156 729 885 (363) 0 (5,266) (0) (5,629) 263
220 509 (18,490) 662 (4,082) 1,215 (2,867) 5,921 0 (3,977) (0) 1,945 (297)
0 524 (23,036) (1,534) (167) 855 688 2,891 4,196 (4,010) 0 3,077 2,231
0 547 (24,532) (1,916) (218) 949 731 3,077 2,797 (4,286) 0 1,588 403
0 571 (28,657) 95 (218) 1,095 878 2,633 0 (4,670) 0 (2,037) (1,065)
Free cash flow
(2,721)
3,663
(3,020)
(1,203)
(1,541)
511
(0.27)
0.37
(0.30)
(0.11)
(0.13)
FCF per share (Bt)
0.04
PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2011 13.8 34.3 41.2 32.5 39.5 16.6 29.2 18.9 (24.2)
2012 25.3 3.1 1.3 34.5 32.4 19.9 23.6 23.8 (24.6)
2013 4.0 12.1 14.0 36.2 35.0 22.5 25.8 25.7 (19.7)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
2014E 9.9 7.4 0.8 36.4 34.2 22.7 25.1 25.2 (20.0)
2015E 5.5 8.3 (0.4) 36.6 35.1 22.9 26.0 26.0 (20.0)
2016E 26.0 17.6 15.5 35.3 32.7 21.6 24.6 24.6 (20.0)
page 4 of 5
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals
The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
