Diesel Emissions Conference & Diesel Exhaust Fluid ...
Part of the Global Diesel Emissions and AdBlue® / DEF Series
insight beyond numbers insight beyond numbers
Diesel Emissions Conference & Diesel Exhaust Fluid Forum 2011 Oct. 20-22, 2010. Manchester Grand Hyatt, San Diego, CA
Environmental Sponsor: Diesel Emissions Conference & AdBlue® Forum 2011 Silver Sponsors:
Diesel Emissions Conference ® Forum 2011 & AdBlue Cocktail Sponsor:
Lunch Sponsors:
Delegate Bag Sponsor:
| innovative Abgasnachbe
Non-Road Mobile Machinery & DEF I t Integer Research R h & KGP
DEC 2010,, San Diego g Integer and Knibb, Gormezano & Partners
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners ; Integer Research 2010
Non-Road Mobile Machinery – DEF demand
Harmonised legislation The North American non-road non road market Sales forecast OEM emissions strategies DEF d demand d estimate ti t
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Non-Road Legislation
Uncertain Stage III 2008Stage IIIb 2010St Stage IV 2015 2015-
Tier 4 2008Tier 4i 2008-2014
Tier 3 2008-
Stage II 2007-
MLIT Step 4 2011-
TBA Bharat II 2007 – Bharat III 2011?
JAPAN EPA
TBA
EU VARIES
TBA
NB In China, India and other lesser developed markets legislation is being considered, but is not yet mandated. On-Road legislation has been severely delayed, ostensibly due to high sulphur content fuels All dates are approximate depending on power band, new vs. existing engine certification etc. 25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Non-Road Legislation US EPA 560kw
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 Tier 4F
2011 Tier 4F
2012 Tier 4F
2013 Tier 4F
2014 Tier 4F
2015
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
1 Legislation based on type approval (new models), all models typically 12 months later. 2 US EPA allows Averaging, Banking and Trading (ABT), also allows alternative NOx limits US EPA allows Averaging Banking and Trading (ABT) also allows alternative NOx limits 3 Japan is expected to harmonise with the EU by 2015 4 India phasing in EU Stage IIIA/Tier 2/3 equivalents 2010/11 for some applications, future timescale not decided 5 China mainly at Tier 2 equivalent, future timescale not decided
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Global Markets – Sales 2009
US/Canada Sales 000s
Europe Sales 000s
182
Ag Tractors
32
Compact Equipment
150
Ag Tractors
Compact Equipment
India Sales 000s
250
Compact Equipment
99
Fullsize Equipment
Japan Sales 000s
400
Ag Tractors
22
Fullsize Equipment
220
Fullsize Equipment
Rest of World Sales 000s Ag Tractors
23
Compact Equipment
52
Fullsize Equipment
300
Ag Tractors
34
Compact Equipment
45
Fullsize Equipment
China Sales 000s
1
50
Ag Tractors
12
Compact Equipment
28
17
Fullsize Equipment
Source: Off-Highwayy Research Global Volume and Value Service
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
North American Sales Forecast US/Canada Unit Sales 000s 493
468 439 378
Ag Tractors 261
359 332
244 248 230
Compact
95
258
267
280
301
205
220
182
188
197
53
40
86
34 45
35
47
32 45
48
56
66
75
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
87 79 61
Fullsize
137
2005
136
2006
112 2007
230
Source: Off-Highwayy Research Global Volume and Value Service
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Equipment Types by Power Band, Suitability for SCR Equipment
Key Power Bands
Equipment
Key Power Bands
Articulated Dump p Trucks
130-560kW
Mini Excavators
19-75kW
Crawler Excavator
56-225kW
Skid Steer Loaders
19-75kW
Crawler Dozer
75-560kW
Mobile Cranes
>130kW
Asphalt Finishers
19-225kW
Motor Graders
75 560kW 75-560kW
Back Hoe Loaders
56 130kW 56-130kW
Motor Scrapers
130-560kW
Compaction Equipment
19-130kW
g Dump p Trucks Rigid
>225kW
Rough g Terrain LiftTrucks
37-130kW
Wheeled Loaders
37-560kW
Wheeled Excavators
56-130kW
Ag Tractors
19-225kW
Combine Harvesters
130-225kW
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
OEM Strategies OEM
Tier 3
Tier 4 Interim
Tier 4 Final
Agco
SCR
SCR
Not finalised
John Deere
EGR
EGR/DPF
Not finalised
C Caterpillar ill
EGR/DOC
EGR/DPF
N finalised Not fi li d
Case New Holland
None
SCR or EGR/DPF
Not finalised
Others
None
Various EGR+DOC or EGR+DPF
EGR, DPF. SCR combinations
NB Solutions shown for engines above 74kw in North American market
Source: Knibb, Gormezano and Partners/Off-Highway y Research Non-Road Engine Study y 2010
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Parc Development
US/Canada Parc (m Units) 3.50 3.5
SCR % Parc P
3.45
3.40
3.36
3.36
3.0
3.33
4.0
3.7
3.5 3.0
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.0
20 2.0
1.5
1.5 1.0
1.5 1.0
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.2
2010
2011
0.5
0.0
0.0 2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Integer/Knibb, Gormezano and Partners Non-Road Mobile Machinery y DEFF Studyy
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
DEF consumption estimate: Non-road, base-case • Estimated DEF usage (million gallons) 400 359
Base-case: NRMM Base-case: On-road
350 300
279
250 200
200 150
127
100 63 50 0
1
16
2010
1
2011
5
2012
11
2013
19
2014
33
2015
Source: Integer/Knibb, Gormezano and Partners Non-Road Mobile Machinery DEFF Study 25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
DEF consumption estimate: Non-road, upside • Estimated DEF usage (million gallons) 400 359
Upside: NRMM Base-case: On-road
350 300
279
250 200
200 150
127
100 63
58
50 0
3
16
2010
6
2011
14
2012
25
2013
38
2014
2015
Source: Integer/Knibb, Gormezano and Partners Non-Road Mobile Machinery DEFF Study 25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Thank you for your attention!
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
insight beyond numbers insight beyond numbers
Diesel Emissions Conference & Diesel Exhaust Fluid Forum 2011 Oct. 20-22, 2010. Manchester Grand Hyatt, San Diego, CA
Environmental Sponsor: Diesel Emissions Conference & AdBlue® Forum 2011 Silver Sponsors:
Diesel Emissions Conference ® Forum 2011 & AdBlue Cocktail Sponsor:
Lunch Sponsors:
Delegate Bag Sponsor:
| innovative Abgasnachbe
Non-Road Mobile Machinery & DEF I t Integer Research R h & KGP
DEC 2010,, San Diego g Integer and Knibb, Gormezano & Partners
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners ; Integer Research 2010
Non-Road Mobile Machinery – DEF demand
Harmonised legislation The North American non-road non road market Sales forecast OEM emissions strategies DEF d demand d estimate ti t
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Non-Road Legislation
Uncertain Stage III 2008Stage IIIb 2010St Stage IV 2015 2015-
Tier 4 2008Tier 4i 2008-2014
Tier 3 2008-
Stage II 2007-
MLIT Step 4 2011-
TBA Bharat II 2007 – Bharat III 2011?
JAPAN EPA
TBA
EU VARIES
TBA
NB In China, India and other lesser developed markets legislation is being considered, but is not yet mandated. On-Road legislation has been severely delayed, ostensibly due to high sulphur content fuels All dates are approximate depending on power band, new vs. existing engine certification etc. 25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Non-Road Legislation US EPA 560kw
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 Tier 4F
2011 Tier 4F
2012 Tier 4F
2013 Tier 4F
2014 Tier 4F
2015
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4i
Tier 4F
Tier 4F
1 Legislation based on type approval (new models), all models typically 12 months later. 2 US EPA allows Averaging, Banking and Trading (ABT), also allows alternative NOx limits US EPA allows Averaging Banking and Trading (ABT) also allows alternative NOx limits 3 Japan is expected to harmonise with the EU by 2015 4 India phasing in EU Stage IIIA/Tier 2/3 equivalents 2010/11 for some applications, future timescale not decided 5 China mainly at Tier 2 equivalent, future timescale not decided
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Global Markets – Sales 2009
US/Canada Sales 000s
Europe Sales 000s
182
Ag Tractors
32
Compact Equipment
150
Ag Tractors
Compact Equipment
India Sales 000s
250
Compact Equipment
99
Fullsize Equipment
Japan Sales 000s
400
Ag Tractors
22
Fullsize Equipment
220
Fullsize Equipment
Rest of World Sales 000s Ag Tractors
23
Compact Equipment
52
Fullsize Equipment
300
Ag Tractors
34
Compact Equipment
45
Fullsize Equipment
China Sales 000s
1
50
Ag Tractors
12
Compact Equipment
28
17
Fullsize Equipment
Source: Off-Highwayy Research Global Volume and Value Service
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
North American Sales Forecast US/Canada Unit Sales 000s 493
468 439 378
Ag Tractors 261
359 332
244 248 230
Compact
95
258
267
280
301
205
220
182
188
197
53
40
86
34 45
35
47
32 45
48
56
66
75
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
87 79 61
Fullsize
137
2005
136
2006
112 2007
230
Source: Off-Highwayy Research Global Volume and Value Service
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Equipment Types by Power Band, Suitability for SCR Equipment
Key Power Bands
Equipment
Key Power Bands
Articulated Dump p Trucks
130-560kW
Mini Excavators
19-75kW
Crawler Excavator
56-225kW
Skid Steer Loaders
19-75kW
Crawler Dozer
75-560kW
Mobile Cranes
>130kW
Asphalt Finishers
19-225kW
Motor Graders
75 560kW 75-560kW
Back Hoe Loaders
56 130kW 56-130kW
Motor Scrapers
130-560kW
Compaction Equipment
19-130kW
g Dump p Trucks Rigid
>225kW
Rough g Terrain LiftTrucks
37-130kW
Wheeled Loaders
37-560kW
Wheeled Excavators
56-130kW
Ag Tractors
19-225kW
Combine Harvesters
130-225kW
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
OEM Strategies OEM
Tier 3
Tier 4 Interim
Tier 4 Final
Agco
SCR
SCR
Not finalised
John Deere
EGR
EGR/DPF
Not finalised
C Caterpillar ill
EGR/DOC
EGR/DPF
N finalised Not fi li d
Case New Holland
None
SCR or EGR/DPF
Not finalised
Others
None
Various EGR+DOC or EGR+DPF
EGR, DPF. SCR combinations
NB Solutions shown for engines above 74kw in North American market
Source: Knibb, Gormezano and Partners/Off-Highway y Research Non-Road Engine Study y 2010
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Parc Development
US/Canada Parc (m Units) 3.50 3.5
SCR % Parc P
3.45
3.40
3.36
3.36
3.0
3.33
4.0
3.7
3.5 3.0
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.0
20 2.0
1.5
1.5 1.0
1.5 1.0
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.2
2010
2011
0.5
0.0
0.0 2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Integer/Knibb, Gormezano and Partners Non-Road Mobile Machinery y DEFF Studyy
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
DEF consumption estimate: Non-road, base-case • Estimated DEF usage (million gallons) 400 359
Base-case: NRMM Base-case: On-road
350 300
279
250 200
200 150
127
100 63 50 0
1
16
2010
1
2011
5
2012
11
2013
19
2014
33
2015
Source: Integer/Knibb, Gormezano and Partners Non-Road Mobile Machinery DEFF Study 25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
DEF consumption estimate: Non-road, upside • Estimated DEF usage (million gallons) 400 359
Upside: NRMM Base-case: On-road
350 300
279
250 200
200 150
127
100 63
58
50 0
3
16
2010
6
2011
14
2012
25
2013
38
2014
2015
Source: Integer/Knibb, Gormezano and Partners Non-Road Mobile Machinery DEFF Study 25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
Thank you for your attention!
25/10/2010
© Knibb, Gormezano & Partners; Integer Research 2010
