DTN USDA Reports Summary - CME Group
DTN USDA Reports Summary SUMMARY: USDA Increases 2011-12 Corn Ending Stocks written By Katie Micik, DTN Markets Editor
WASHINGTON (DTN) – USDA increased domestic corn
“The end result is a decrease in ending stocks to use of 6.8%
ending stocks for 2011-12 by 50 million bushels from its April
as compared to the April figure of 8.2%,” Sanow said. “In
estimate, pegging stocks at 851 mb and more than doubling
new crop, ending stocks came in at 4.4%, representing the
the stocks-to-use ratio to 13.7%. U.S. soybean supplies were
tightest level on record.”
decreased 40 mb for 2011-12.
Domestic ending stocks for wheat were cut by 30 mb to 768
USDA gave its first estimates of 2012-13 crop year supply and
mb, also slightly lower than the average trade guess.
demand, pegging U.S. ending stocks for corn at 1.88 billion
2012-13 U.S. ENDING STOCKS
bushels. USDA estimated 2012-13 domestic soybean ending stocks as 145 mb. USDA also increased its Brazilian corn estimate to 67 million metric tons from its April estimate of 62 mmt in April.
USDA set its initial read of corn ending stocks at 1.88 bb, slightly higher than the average trade guess of 1.7 billion bushels. U.S. soybean ending stocks tightened considerably. Ending
2011-12 U.S. ENDING STOCKS
stocks were pegged at 145 mb, within the range of trade
USDA estimated corn ending stocks 851 mb, compared to
guesses.
801 mb in April. According to pre-report polls, no traders expected USDA to increase ending stocks, and some analysts had expected them to cut ending stocks as low as 660 mb. “USDA’s domestic ending stocks number of 851 mb, 50 mb above the April number tied to lower feed usage, will leave traders scratching their heads,” said DTN Analyst John Sanow. “Keep in mind, the market doesn’t agree either as
Wheat ending stocks remain large at 735 mb.
WORLD PRODUCTION AND ENDING STOCKS Corn: Global corn stocks increased by roughly 5 million metric tons for 2011-12 to 127.56 million metric tons. Estimated ending stocks grew to 152.4 mmt for the 2012-13 crop year, reflecting the prospect of a large increase in production.
indicated by the inverted carry in old-crop futures spreads
Argentina’s corn output was left unchanged for the current
and historically firm national average basis. 2012-2013
crop at 21.5 mmt. USDA expects Argentina will produce 25
ending stocks also came in above expectations -- 1.881 bb
mmt of corn in the 2012-13 year.
as compared to the average guesstimate of 1.704 bb. Ending stocks to use in 2012-2013 climb to 13.7%, more than double
Brazil’s corn production was increased by 5 mmt for
the 6.7% in 2011-2012.”
2011-12, to 67 mmt. Brazil’s 2012-13 production is
Soybean ending stocks came in at 210 mb, 40 mb lower than April and toward the low end of trade expectations.
1
estimated at 67 mmt also.
Soybeans: USDA sliced global ending stocks for soybeans
WHEAT PRODUCTION
for the 2011-12 crop year from 55.52 mmt to 53.24 mmt. It
USDA estimated that the U.S. will produce 1.7 billion bushels
forecasted 2012-13 ending stocks at 58.07 mmt.
of winter wheat, up 13% from last year, with 1.03 bb coming
“Soybeans were the most interesting of the bunch,” Sanow said. “Despite an expected large increase in world production
from hard red winter, 42.8 mb coming from soft red winter, and 23 mb coming from white winter wheat.
for 2012-2013, ending stocks to use is an identical 21.9% for
MARKET REACTION
both the old-crop and new-crop marketing year.”
At midday Thursday, grains remained about where they were
Soybean production in Argentina was estimated at 42.5 mmt for the 2011-12 crop year, a 2.5 mmt drop, but USDA expects Argentine farmers will produce 55 mmt in 2012-13.
at the open: lower in corn and wheat and solid double-digit gains in soybeans. “The ability of new-crop corn to withstand the bearish USDA
Brazilian farmers will also have a large crop in 2012-13, with USDA estimates coming in at 78 mmt. USDA slightly trimmed 2011-12 estimates to 65 mmt.
numbers is impressive,” Sanow said. “However, the biggest question to answer is whether the larger-than-expected stocks figures will keep the downtrend accelerating in both old crop and new crop on long-liquidation. Wheat has been
Wheat: Global wheat ending stocks remain burdensome at
trading on both sides of unchanged as global and domestic
188.13 mmt with a stocks-to-use ration at 27.4%.
ending stocks both came in below expectations.”
The world ending stocks report should be considered bullish for beans, neutral for wheat and bearish for corn, Sanow said.
2011-12 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels) May
Average
High
Low
April
2010-11
Corn
0.851
0.758
0.801
0.660
0.801
1.128
Soybeans
0.210
0.221
0.250
0.200
0.250
0.215
Grain Sorghum
0.027
0.026
0.029
0.023
0.027
0.027
Wheat
0.768
0.781
0.800
0.756
0.793
0.862
2012-13 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels)
2
May
Average
High
Low
Corn
1.881
1.704
2.072
1.209
Soybeans
0.145
0.170
0.250
0.100
Grain Sorghum
0.042
0.030
0.036
0.024
Wheat
0.735
0.805
0.963
0.609
2012-2013 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels) May
All Wheat
Average
High
Low
2010-11
2.245
2.196
2.282
2.054
1.999
All Winter Wheat 1.694
1.634
1.707
1.499
1.494
HRW
1.032
0.990
1.068
0.880
0.780
SRW
0.428
0.413
0.454
0.307
0.458
White
0.233
0.231
0.267
0.214
0.256
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2012-2013
2011-2012
May
May
April
Wheat
188.13
197.03
206.27
Corn
152.34
127.56
122.71
Coarse Grains
161.60
184.92
156.97
Soybeans
58.07
53.24
55.52
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million metric tons) 2012-2013
2011-2012
May
May
April
Australia wheat
26.0
29.5
29.5
Canada wheat
27.0
25.3
25.3
Argentina corn
25.0
21.5
21.5
Brazil corn
67.0
67.0
62.0
Brazil soybeans
78.0
65.0
66.0
Argentine soybeans
55.0
42.5
45.0
Katie Micik can be reached at [email protected] Watch our webinar with Telvent DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom for a discussion on what the USDA report numbers might mean for the markets. Click here to view our webinar analyzing the latest USDA reports. This information was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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WASHINGTON (DTN) – USDA increased domestic corn
“The end result is a decrease in ending stocks to use of 6.8%
ending stocks for 2011-12 by 50 million bushels from its April
as compared to the April figure of 8.2%,” Sanow said. “In
estimate, pegging stocks at 851 mb and more than doubling
new crop, ending stocks came in at 4.4%, representing the
the stocks-to-use ratio to 13.7%. U.S. soybean supplies were
tightest level on record.”
decreased 40 mb for 2011-12.
Domestic ending stocks for wheat were cut by 30 mb to 768
USDA gave its first estimates of 2012-13 crop year supply and
mb, also slightly lower than the average trade guess.
demand, pegging U.S. ending stocks for corn at 1.88 billion
2012-13 U.S. ENDING STOCKS
bushels. USDA estimated 2012-13 domestic soybean ending stocks as 145 mb. USDA also increased its Brazilian corn estimate to 67 million metric tons from its April estimate of 62 mmt in April.
USDA set its initial read of corn ending stocks at 1.88 bb, slightly higher than the average trade guess of 1.7 billion bushels. U.S. soybean ending stocks tightened considerably. Ending
2011-12 U.S. ENDING STOCKS
stocks were pegged at 145 mb, within the range of trade
USDA estimated corn ending stocks 851 mb, compared to
guesses.
801 mb in April. According to pre-report polls, no traders expected USDA to increase ending stocks, and some analysts had expected them to cut ending stocks as low as 660 mb. “USDA’s domestic ending stocks number of 851 mb, 50 mb above the April number tied to lower feed usage, will leave traders scratching their heads,” said DTN Analyst John Sanow. “Keep in mind, the market doesn’t agree either as
Wheat ending stocks remain large at 735 mb.
WORLD PRODUCTION AND ENDING STOCKS Corn: Global corn stocks increased by roughly 5 million metric tons for 2011-12 to 127.56 million metric tons. Estimated ending stocks grew to 152.4 mmt for the 2012-13 crop year, reflecting the prospect of a large increase in production.
indicated by the inverted carry in old-crop futures spreads
Argentina’s corn output was left unchanged for the current
and historically firm national average basis. 2012-2013
crop at 21.5 mmt. USDA expects Argentina will produce 25
ending stocks also came in above expectations -- 1.881 bb
mmt of corn in the 2012-13 year.
as compared to the average guesstimate of 1.704 bb. Ending stocks to use in 2012-2013 climb to 13.7%, more than double
Brazil’s corn production was increased by 5 mmt for
the 6.7% in 2011-2012.”
2011-12, to 67 mmt. Brazil’s 2012-13 production is
Soybean ending stocks came in at 210 mb, 40 mb lower than April and toward the low end of trade expectations.
1
estimated at 67 mmt also.
Soybeans: USDA sliced global ending stocks for soybeans
WHEAT PRODUCTION
for the 2011-12 crop year from 55.52 mmt to 53.24 mmt. It
USDA estimated that the U.S. will produce 1.7 billion bushels
forecasted 2012-13 ending stocks at 58.07 mmt.
of winter wheat, up 13% from last year, with 1.03 bb coming
“Soybeans were the most interesting of the bunch,” Sanow said. “Despite an expected large increase in world production
from hard red winter, 42.8 mb coming from soft red winter, and 23 mb coming from white winter wheat.
for 2012-2013, ending stocks to use is an identical 21.9% for
MARKET REACTION
both the old-crop and new-crop marketing year.”
At midday Thursday, grains remained about where they were
Soybean production in Argentina was estimated at 42.5 mmt for the 2011-12 crop year, a 2.5 mmt drop, but USDA expects Argentine farmers will produce 55 mmt in 2012-13.
at the open: lower in corn and wheat and solid double-digit gains in soybeans. “The ability of new-crop corn to withstand the bearish USDA
Brazilian farmers will also have a large crop in 2012-13, with USDA estimates coming in at 78 mmt. USDA slightly trimmed 2011-12 estimates to 65 mmt.
numbers is impressive,” Sanow said. “However, the biggest question to answer is whether the larger-than-expected stocks figures will keep the downtrend accelerating in both old crop and new crop on long-liquidation. Wheat has been
Wheat: Global wheat ending stocks remain burdensome at
trading on both sides of unchanged as global and domestic
188.13 mmt with a stocks-to-use ration at 27.4%.
ending stocks both came in below expectations.”
The world ending stocks report should be considered bullish for beans, neutral for wheat and bearish for corn, Sanow said.
2011-12 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels) May
Average
High
Low
April
2010-11
Corn
0.851
0.758
0.801
0.660
0.801
1.128
Soybeans
0.210
0.221
0.250
0.200
0.250
0.215
Grain Sorghum
0.027
0.026
0.029
0.023
0.027
0.027
Wheat
0.768
0.781
0.800
0.756
0.793
0.862
2012-13 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels)
2
May
Average
High
Low
Corn
1.881
1.704
2.072
1.209
Soybeans
0.145
0.170
0.250
0.100
Grain Sorghum
0.042
0.030
0.036
0.024
Wheat
0.735
0.805
0.963
0.609
2012-2013 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels) May
All Wheat
Average
High
Low
2010-11
2.245
2.196
2.282
2.054
1.999
All Winter Wheat 1.694
1.634
1.707
1.499
1.494
HRW
1.032
0.990
1.068
0.880
0.780
SRW
0.428
0.413
0.454
0.307
0.458
White
0.233
0.231
0.267
0.214
0.256
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2012-2013
2011-2012
May
May
April
Wheat
188.13
197.03
206.27
Corn
152.34
127.56
122.71
Coarse Grains
161.60
184.92
156.97
Soybeans
58.07
53.24
55.52
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million metric tons) 2012-2013
2011-2012
May
May
April
Australia wheat
26.0
29.5
29.5
Canada wheat
27.0
25.3
25.3
Argentina corn
25.0
21.5
21.5
Brazil corn
67.0
67.0
62.0
Brazil soybeans
78.0
65.0
66.0
Argentine soybeans
55.0
42.5
45.0
Katie Micik can be reached at [email protected] Watch our webinar with Telvent DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom for a discussion on what the USDA report numbers might mean for the markets. Click here to view our webinar analyzing the latest USDA reports. This information was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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