EESA11 - Lecture 2 Global Climate Change ... amazonaws com
EESA11 - Lecture 2 Global Climate Change * Prof said she won't ask more than what is in the slides* The Greenhous Effect Solar radiation - some energy goes back and never reaches the earth. Some gets absorbed by the Earth. Low energy infrared radiation - greenhouse effect Climate Change- has happened several times before e.g. ice ages (midterm what is the first ice age...dates of those...and where) - huge economical and poltical consequences - immigration and emigration from and to different countries in Europe. Global increase in temperature - atmospheric temperature - Ocean temperatures have risen in the past century - needs a lot of energy to do this - we can see the connection between this and the various greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. - (from graph) - we are now facing huge increase in temperatures - steady increase WHOLETRUTH - our measurements were not done the same way as before - errors and misinterpretations - e.g. in the 40s and 50s, temperatures were measured near the cities - lots of buildings and vehicles which adds to the temperature. 1995-2004 - measured the same way so there's no doubt about its reliability - measure temperature via glaciers - way to find out the temperature hundreds of years ago How is global warming manifesting itself *midterm what kinds of indeces that indicates global warming* 1) Snow and ice melt - this is no doubt one of the most obvious indications of the effects of global warming - records can prove this - thinner ice - acculuating thikness of all the glaciers in the world are measured and from this, they found out that all the glaciers are getting thinner and thinner. - cause of concern since these glaciers are sources of drinking water - loss of glaciiers - loss of water 2) Sea levels rise - different estimations of the different levels of water rise - e.g. Greenland - may be gone if sea water rises - 7 m aroun the earth - lowlands are vulnerable - sea level has risen over 120 m since the last ice age 20 k years ago - NOW - 1-3 mm/yr rise *midterm* of sea levels - 3 mm annual estimates Greenhouse gases and their sources - temperature and gases are connected - greenhouse effect The Basic Mechanism - lowradiation *remmebr greenhoue gases* - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, tropospheric ozone - CO2 is the most abundant gas in the atmosphere -55% *she will ask these numbers** check slide*
Table 7.1 - changes in the concentration - none of them are decreasing - but what is more important is that the numbers in the warming potential compared to CO2 *know thse for midterm* - this means that t hey have more or less warmning potential than CO2 *she will ask which one is more r less vs CO2* - through the years, CO2 goes back and forth - summer and winter months contribute to these fluctuations - summer = more vegetation, takes in more CO2 so it goes down...winter = less vegetation, more CO2 - so seasonal changes contrbute to these but the important thing is that it's increasing - Oceans - plays a tremendous role in the balance of CO2 - why ocean? - they absorb a lot of hear - hey have a huge community which takes CO2 off the atmosphere (e.g. marine plytooplankton) so these are like the plants of the ocean - biological pump *she will ask this on the final* - explain - CO2 comes from the atmosphere equilibrium - phytoplankton can be eaten in the food chain - poop comes down at the bottom of the ocean floow - marine snow - important mechanism for the global CO2 balance - suggestion to feen these phytoplankton at the bottom of the sea - once the ocean takes in CO2 - chankges t he balance *no formula!* it gets ore proon - acidified so if it gets more CO2 - onectios inecreases, it affects conditions in the ocean environment - phyo loses their carbonite shells - all ecosystem will change - pH is decreasing
CFS - Chlorofluorocarbons - strongest greenhouse molecules - low concentration but there is enough in the atomsphere to have impact - can be measured - now it's slowly decreasing - this is connected with ozone depletion\- artificially created So why are these arificially created gases are on the decline? - 1987 - Montreal Protocol - see th global reduction of these gases started Methane - the concentration of this gas has been increasing - there's no regulation on this gas - rice cultivation and animal production - difficult to regulate because of political reasons --> drives economy of the country/food - land use - deforestation 0 dificult to reverse the process - most methane is in the stratosphere Nitrous Oxide - steadily increasing and it comes from everywhere - sources again is from land use - agrculture production - connected with Nitrogen - fossil fuels There's no one definite sector that we can pinpoint to determine whwhich emits the most greenhouse gas *remember two main sources for each gases* Industry and government action to reduce emissions
- Kyoto Protocol - main traget was to reduce greenhouse gases - IPCC -commitee published a report saying that the temperatures are rising and are in dangerious levels - huge increase negative effects in the environment - action should be done -vtake action to reduce temperatures - lower than 0.28 - 1997, how many countries, and what is it about -160 countries - huge debate between Annex and Non Annex countries - Annex 1 - law vs non Annex - no obligation to reduce emissions - Any Annex 1 that fails- reduce 30% next year - trade Carbon and buy reduction Canada - opposition by some groups - same in the US *ask where it was, what kind of countries, how they dealt with these emisisons + Canada's position- exams* Assessing global climate change - controversial - anthropogenic impact vs natural changes t hat we just don't know about Anthropogenic Impacts: - CO2 is absoring and emitting IR radiation - can't to anbything about it - Gas bubbles in trapped ice cores - ris and fall pattern - Correlation between human activity and temperature Opposition - difference in correlation and causality - cause and effects relationship - urban heat islands - skew results - errors - measurements from satellites - position of the satellites were not placed correctly mistke in the software/data collection - very political -makes it hard to make it as a scientific discussion - impact on funding on these studies Issue of water vapour - huge impact but we don't take it into account as we can't do anything about it SUn activity - more powereful and more energy - connection between sun activities and climate change - the shorter the sun cycle (or the more active the sun is), the higher the temperatures Huge debate on cooling - global cooling - which dissipated easily - so argument that lobal warming is the same as that SOlar cycle - 11 year sunspotcycle - they fit together - *see sun activity* *midterm* El Nino and La Nina Oscillation - global phenomenon - change of ocean and atmospheric movement in the pacific oceanNormal - once warm water moves in the pacific, there's a connection with atmosphere - air gets warm or cold
Once warm water goes from SOuth America to Asia - heavy rain is Asia and dry climate in S. America Important global oscillation can't be calculated or predicted - vs anthroopogenic impact - *know what happens in El Nino and La nina Hurricanes - can be connected to global warming - warm ocean water is the energy of hurricane
Table 7.1 - changes in the concentration - none of them are decreasing - but what is more important is that the numbers in the warming potential compared to CO2 *know thse for midterm* - this means that t hey have more or less warmning potential than CO2 *she will ask which one is more r less vs CO2* - through the years, CO2 goes back and forth - summer and winter months contribute to these fluctuations - summer = more vegetation, takes in more CO2 so it goes down...winter = less vegetation, more CO2 - so seasonal changes contrbute to these but the important thing is that it's increasing - Oceans - plays a tremendous role in the balance of CO2 - why ocean? - they absorb a lot of hear - hey have a huge community which takes CO2 off the atmosphere (e.g. marine plytooplankton) so these are like the plants of the ocean - biological pump *she will ask this on the final* - explain - CO2 comes from the atmosphere equilibrium - phytoplankton can be eaten in the food chain - poop comes down at the bottom of the ocean floow - marine snow - important mechanism for the global CO2 balance - suggestion to feen these phytoplankton at the bottom of the sea - once the ocean takes in CO2 - chankges t he balance *no formula!* it gets ore proon - acidified so if it gets more CO2 - onectios inecreases, it affects conditions in the ocean environment - phyo loses their carbonite shells - all ecosystem will change - pH is decreasing
CFS - Chlorofluorocarbons - strongest greenhouse molecules - low concentration but there is enough in the atomsphere to have impact - can be measured - now it's slowly decreasing - this is connected with ozone depletion\- artificially created So why are these arificially created gases are on the decline? - 1987 - Montreal Protocol - see th global reduction of these gases started Methane - the concentration of this gas has been increasing - there's no regulation on this gas - rice cultivation and animal production - difficult to regulate because of political reasons --> drives economy of the country/food - land use - deforestation 0 dificult to reverse the process - most methane is in the stratosphere Nitrous Oxide - steadily increasing and it comes from everywhere - sources again is from land use - agrculture production - connected with Nitrogen - fossil fuels There's no one definite sector that we can pinpoint to determine whwhich emits the most greenhouse gas *remember two main sources for each gases* Industry and government action to reduce emissions
- Kyoto Protocol - main traget was to reduce greenhouse gases - IPCC -commitee published a report saying that the temperatures are rising and are in dangerious levels - huge increase negative effects in the environment - action should be done -vtake action to reduce temperatures - lower than 0.28 - 1997, how many countries, and what is it about -160 countries - huge debate between Annex and Non Annex countries - Annex 1 - law vs non Annex - no obligation to reduce emissions - Any Annex 1 that fails- reduce 30% next year - trade Carbon and buy reduction Canada - opposition by some groups - same in the US *ask where it was, what kind of countries, how they dealt with these emisisons + Canada's position- exams* Assessing global climate change - controversial - anthropogenic impact vs natural changes t hat we just don't know about Anthropogenic Impacts: - CO2 is absoring and emitting IR radiation - can't to anbything about it - Gas bubbles in trapped ice cores - ris and fall pattern - Correlation between human activity and temperature Opposition - difference in correlation and causality - cause and effects relationship - urban heat islands - skew results - errors - measurements from satellites - position of the satellites were not placed correctly mistke in the software/data collection - very political -makes it hard to make it as a scientific discussion - impact on funding on these studies Issue of water vapour - huge impact but we don't take it into account as we can't do anything about it SUn activity - more powereful and more energy - connection between sun activities and climate change - the shorter the sun cycle (or the more active the sun is), the higher the temperatures Huge debate on cooling - global cooling - which dissipated easily - so argument that lobal warming is the same as that SOlar cycle - 11 year sunspotcycle - they fit together - *see sun activity* *midterm* El Nino and La Nina Oscillation - global phenomenon - change of ocean and atmospheric movement in the pacific oceanNormal - once warm water moves in the pacific, there's a connection with atmosphere - air gets warm or cold
Once warm water goes from SOuth America to Asia - heavy rain is Asia and dry climate in S. America Important global oscillation can't be calculated or predicted - vs anthroopogenic impact - *know what happens in El Nino and La nina Hurricanes - can be connected to global warming - warm ocean water is the energy of hurricane
