Energy Outlook 2030 - Energy Policy Research Group
BP Energy Outlook 2030 London, January 2011 Christof Ruehl, Group Chief Economist
Outline
Global trends Liquid fuels Gas, power and coal What can bend the trend?
Energy Outlook 2030
2
© BP 2011
Historical trends and patterns of development Energy use per unit of GDP toe per thousand $2009 PPP 0.6
China
Russia/USS R
Foreca st
US UK 0.4
0.2
World Japan 0.0 1820
1840
1860
Energy Outlook 2030
1880
1900
1920 3
1940
India
1960
1980
2000
2020 © BP 2011
The long view: Energy consumption and fuel mix World commercial energy use Contribution to total energy growth Billion toe
% p.a.
18
5
15 12 9
Renew ables * Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal
4 3 2
6
1
3
0
0 1870
1910
1950
1990
2030
* Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030
4
1850- 19101910 1970
1970- 1990- 20101990 2010 2030 © BP 2011
Non-OECD economies drive consumption growth Billion toe
Billion toe
18
18
16
16
14
14
Renew ables
12
12
Hydro
10
10
Nuclear
8
*
8
Coal
Non-OECD
6
6
4
4
2 0 1990
Gas Oil
OECD
2 0 2000
2010
2020
2030
1990 2000
2010 2020 2030 * Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030
5
© BP 2011
Gas and renewables win as fuel shares converge Contributions to growth
Shares of world primary energy 50%
Oil
2.5% Renew ables*
40%
30%
2.0%
Coa l
1.5%
Hydro Nuclear Coal
20%
1.0% Gas
Gas 10%
0.5%
Hydro
0% 1970
Nucle ar 1990
Energy Outlook 2030
Renewabl 0.0% es* 2010 2030 1970- 1990- 20101990 2010 2030 6
Oil
* Includes biofuels © BP 2011
Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tighten Global CO2 emissions from energy use by region Billion tonnes CO2 40
by fuel Billion tonnes CO2 40
vs GDP and energy
Index (1990=100) 400
GDP
350
30
30
Coal 20
300 250
20 Non-OECD
10
Gas
200
Oil
150
Energy
10 OECD
0 1990
2010
Energy Outlook 2030
0 2030 1990
2010 7
100 1990 2030
CO 2
2010
2030 © BP 2011
Oil (and other liquid fuels)
© BP 2011
Liquids balance – demand and supply Mb/d
Demand
Supply
105 Other
100
2030 level
Other
S&C Am
Iraq
Mid East Other Asia
95 90
Oil Sands Biofue ls Brazi FSU l
China
85
Saudi NGLs
80 75 2010
OECD Declines
Energy Outlook 2030
NonOECD Grow th
2010
9
NonOPEC Grow th
NonOPEC OPEC Grow th Declines © BP 2011
China remains a key component of oil consumption growth China’s liquids demand growth
Mb/d 5 4
Pow er/ Other
3
Liquids demand per capita from 1970
Bbls per person 20 China South Korea 16 Taiw an M alaysia Thailand 12
Industry
2
8
Transport
1
4
0
0
90-00 00-10 10-20 20-30
Energy Outlook 2030
203 0 2009 0 10 20 30 GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands)
10
© BP 2011
Oil growth in the transport sector slows Passenger car fuel economy
Energy in transport Mtoe
litres/100 km* 9
3000
US
2500
8
Electricity
2000
OECD Europe
1500
Coal
6
1000
Biof uels
5
Oil
4 3
0 1990
Japan
7
Gas
500
China
2010
2030
2010
2020
2030
* New sales average Energy Outlook 2030
11
© BP 2011
OPEC’s critical role in the oil market continues Mb/d 50
40
OPEC production and spare (Crude and NGLs) capacity
OPEC production 50%
Other OPEC
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
OPEC Spare Capacity
% of Global Output (rhs)
45% 30
20 40% 10
0
35% 1990
1995
Energy Outlook 2030
2000
2005
12
2010
2020
2030
© BP 2011
Gas, power and coal
© BP 2011
Gas production and consumption growth moderates Production
Consumption
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
500
500 S & C Am erica
2.1% p.a. 400
300
400
2.4% p.a.
North Am erica M iddle East
300
Europe 200
200 FSU
100
0 1990
100
2010
Energy Outlook 2030
2030
Asia
0 1990 14
Af rica 2010
2030 © BP 2011
Unconventional gas will play a growing role Sources of gas supply, by region North America
Europe
China
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
100
100
100
80
80
80
Net imports: Pipeline LNG
60
60
60
40
40
40
20
20
20
0
0
0
1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030
1990 2010 2030 15
Domestic Colum n 4 production: Syngas from coal Shale gas and CBM Conventional (inc tight gas) 1990 2010 2030 © BP 2011
LNG trade grows twice as fast as global gas production LNG exports by basin
LNG imports by region
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
70
70 M iddle East
60
60
Pacif ic Basin Atlantic Basin
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1990
2000
Energy Outlook 2030
2010
2020
2030 16
1990
Other non-OECD Asia OECD Asia Europe
2000
2010
2020
2030 © BP 2011
Gas displaces coal in OECD power generation Shares of power generated from fossil fuels OECD Europe North America
Share 100%
Share 100%
Share 100%
80%
80%
80%
60%
60%
60%
40%
40%
40%
20%
20%
20%
OECD Asia Oil
Coal
Gas 0% 1990
0% 2010
Energy Outlook 2030
2030
0%
1990
2010 17
2030
1990
2010
2030 © BP 2011
What bends the trend?
© BP 2011
1. The future path of global economic growth Primary energy consumption Billion
Differences from Base Case, 2030
20 toe
20% High GDP Case
GDP
Base 15% Case 10%
15 Low GDP Case
10
5
Prim ary Energy Oil
5% 0%
Gas
-5%
Coal
-10%
Non-f ossil
-15%
0 2000
-20%
2010
Energy Outlook 2030
2020
2030
19
High Case
Low Case © BP 2011
2. Stronger policy action on climate change CO2 emissions from energy use
Sources of carbon abatement versus Base Case, 2030 2030
Billion tonnes CO2 40
2020
Base Case
Iraq
5.4 billion tonnes reduction
35 Polic y Case
30
25
20 2000
Fuel switching
Energy efficiency
IEA “450 Scenario” *
2010
2020
CCS
2030
* a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
Energy Outlook 2030
20
© BP 2011
3. China’s pathway Industrialisation
Energy per capita
Industry share - % of GDP 50 China 2009
Toe / person
45
8
40
Japan 1885-2009 7
9
US 1820-2009
6
35
5 30
4
25 20
Japan 1870-2009
3
US 1879-2009
2
15
1
10
0 0 10 20 30 40 GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands)
Energy Outlook 2030
50
China 1913-2030 0 10 20 30 40 GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands)
21
50
© BP 2011
4. Energy security Mto e 1500
OECD Europe
China
US
100%
Oil & gas consumption
1250
75%
1000 750
50%
Oil & gas production
500
25%
250 0
– 2030 1990 1990 2010
2030 20301990 1990 – 2010
Net imports as % of consumption (rhs): Energy Outlook 2030
22
2030 20301990 1990 –2010 Oil
0% 2030
Gas © BP 2011
Conclusion
Energy efficiency – improving Fuel mix – diversifying Carbon emissions – too high Regional and policy trends – mixed
Energy Outlook 2030
23
© BP 2011
Q&A
A trend is a trend is a trend. But the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course Through some unforeseen force And come to a premature end? (Alec Energy Outlook 2030
24 Cairncross)
© BP 2011
Outline
Global trends Liquid fuels Gas, power and coal What can bend the trend?
Energy Outlook 2030
2
© BP 2011
Historical trends and patterns of development Energy use per unit of GDP toe per thousand $2009 PPP 0.6
China
Russia/USS R
Foreca st
US UK 0.4
0.2
World Japan 0.0 1820
1840
1860
Energy Outlook 2030
1880
1900
1920 3
1940
India
1960
1980
2000
2020 © BP 2011
The long view: Energy consumption and fuel mix World commercial energy use Contribution to total energy growth Billion toe
% p.a.
18
5
15 12 9
Renew ables * Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal
4 3 2
6
1
3
0
0 1870
1910
1950
1990
2030
* Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030
4
1850- 19101910 1970
1970- 1990- 20101990 2010 2030 © BP 2011
Non-OECD economies drive consumption growth Billion toe
Billion toe
18
18
16
16
14
14
Renew ables
12
12
Hydro
10
10
Nuclear
8
*
8
Coal
Non-OECD
6
6
4
4
2 0 1990
Gas Oil
OECD
2 0 2000
2010
2020
2030
1990 2000
2010 2020 2030 * Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030
5
© BP 2011
Gas and renewables win as fuel shares converge Contributions to growth
Shares of world primary energy 50%
Oil
2.5% Renew ables*
40%
30%
2.0%
Coa l
1.5%
Hydro Nuclear Coal
20%
1.0% Gas
Gas 10%
0.5%
Hydro
0% 1970
Nucle ar 1990
Energy Outlook 2030
Renewabl 0.0% es* 2010 2030 1970- 1990- 20101990 2010 2030 6
Oil
* Includes biofuels © BP 2011
Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tighten Global CO2 emissions from energy use by region Billion tonnes CO2 40
by fuel Billion tonnes CO2 40
vs GDP and energy
Index (1990=100) 400
GDP
350
30
30
Coal 20
300 250
20 Non-OECD
10
Gas
200
Oil
150
Energy
10 OECD
0 1990
2010
Energy Outlook 2030
0 2030 1990
2010 7
100 1990 2030
CO 2
2010
2030 © BP 2011
Oil (and other liquid fuels)
© BP 2011
Liquids balance – demand and supply Mb/d
Demand
Supply
105 Other
100
2030 level
Other
S&C Am
Iraq
Mid East Other Asia
95 90
Oil Sands Biofue ls Brazi FSU l
China
85
Saudi NGLs
80 75 2010
OECD Declines
Energy Outlook 2030
NonOECD Grow th
2010
9
NonOPEC Grow th
NonOPEC OPEC Grow th Declines © BP 2011
China remains a key component of oil consumption growth China’s liquids demand growth
Mb/d 5 4
Pow er/ Other
3
Liquids demand per capita from 1970
Bbls per person 20 China South Korea 16 Taiw an M alaysia Thailand 12
Industry
2
8
Transport
1
4
0
0
90-00 00-10 10-20 20-30
Energy Outlook 2030
203 0 2009 0 10 20 30 GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands)
10
© BP 2011
Oil growth in the transport sector slows Passenger car fuel economy
Energy in transport Mtoe
litres/100 km* 9
3000
US
2500
8
Electricity
2000
OECD Europe
1500
Coal
6
1000
Biof uels
5
Oil
4 3
0 1990
Japan
7
Gas
500
China
2010
2030
2010
2020
2030
* New sales average Energy Outlook 2030
11
© BP 2011
OPEC’s critical role in the oil market continues Mb/d 50
40
OPEC production and spare (Crude and NGLs) capacity
OPEC production 50%
Other OPEC
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
OPEC Spare Capacity
% of Global Output (rhs)
45% 30
20 40% 10
0
35% 1990
1995
Energy Outlook 2030
2000
2005
12
2010
2020
2030
© BP 2011
Gas, power and coal
© BP 2011
Gas production and consumption growth moderates Production
Consumption
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
500
500 S & C Am erica
2.1% p.a. 400
300
400
2.4% p.a.
North Am erica M iddle East
300
Europe 200
200 FSU
100
0 1990
100
2010
Energy Outlook 2030
2030
Asia
0 1990 14
Af rica 2010
2030 © BP 2011
Unconventional gas will play a growing role Sources of gas supply, by region North America
Europe
China
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
100
100
100
80
80
80
Net imports: Pipeline LNG
60
60
60
40
40
40
20
20
20
0
0
0
1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030
1990 2010 2030 15
Domestic Colum n 4 production: Syngas from coal Shale gas and CBM Conventional (inc tight gas) 1990 2010 2030 © BP 2011
LNG trade grows twice as fast as global gas production LNG exports by basin
LNG imports by region
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
70
70 M iddle East
60
60
Pacif ic Basin Atlantic Basin
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1990
2000
Energy Outlook 2030
2010
2020
2030 16
1990
Other non-OECD Asia OECD Asia Europe
2000
2010
2020
2030 © BP 2011
Gas displaces coal in OECD power generation Shares of power generated from fossil fuels OECD Europe North America
Share 100%
Share 100%
Share 100%
80%
80%
80%
60%
60%
60%
40%
40%
40%
20%
20%
20%
OECD Asia Oil
Coal
Gas 0% 1990
0% 2010
Energy Outlook 2030
2030
0%
1990
2010 17
2030
1990
2010
2030 © BP 2011
What bends the trend?
© BP 2011
1. The future path of global economic growth Primary energy consumption Billion
Differences from Base Case, 2030
20 toe
20% High GDP Case
GDP
Base 15% Case 10%
15 Low GDP Case
10
5
Prim ary Energy Oil
5% 0%
Gas
-5%
Coal
-10%
Non-f ossil
-15%
0 2000
-20%
2010
Energy Outlook 2030
2020
2030
19
High Case
Low Case © BP 2011
2. Stronger policy action on climate change CO2 emissions from energy use
Sources of carbon abatement versus Base Case, 2030 2030
Billion tonnes CO2 40
2020
Base Case
Iraq
5.4 billion tonnes reduction
35 Polic y Case
30
25
20 2000
Fuel switching
Energy efficiency
IEA “450 Scenario” *
2010
2020
CCS
2030
* a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
Energy Outlook 2030
20
© BP 2011
3. China’s pathway Industrialisation
Energy per capita
Industry share - % of GDP 50 China 2009
Toe / person
45
8
40
Japan 1885-2009 7
9
US 1820-2009
6
35
5 30
4
25 20
Japan 1870-2009
3
US 1879-2009
2
15
1
10
0 0 10 20 30 40 GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands)
Energy Outlook 2030
50
China 1913-2030 0 10 20 30 40 GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands)
21
50
© BP 2011
4. Energy security Mto e 1500
OECD Europe
China
US
100%
Oil & gas consumption
1250
75%
1000 750
50%
Oil & gas production
500
25%
250 0
– 2030 1990 1990 2010
2030 20301990 1990 – 2010
Net imports as % of consumption (rhs): Energy Outlook 2030
22
2030 20301990 1990 –2010 Oil
0% 2030
Gas © BP 2011
Conclusion
Energy efficiency – improving Fuel mix – diversifying Carbon emissions – too high Regional and policy trends – mixed
Energy Outlook 2030
23
© BP 2011
Q&A
A trend is a trend is a trend. But the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course Through some unforeseen force And come to a premature end? (Alec Energy Outlook 2030
24 Cairncross)
© BP 2011
