Energy Outlook 2030
BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
Spencer Dale, group chief economist
bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Outlook to 2035
Economic backdrop GDP
Contribution to GDP growth 2014-35
Trillion, $2010 250 200
Trillion, $2010 0
Other India
100
20
30
Other
Africa 150
10
India
China OECD
Africa China
50 0 1965
OECD
OECD
2016 Energy Outlook
2000
Population
2035 2
Productivity © BP p.l.c. 2016
Global energy demand Consumption by region
Consumption growth by region
Billion toe
10 year average, % per annum
18
12%
Other Asia
10%
China
8%
World
Other
15
Other Asia
12
China
9
Other
OECD
4%
6 3 0 1965
OECD
6%
2%
Industry Transport
2016 Energy Outlook
2000
0% -2%
2035 3
1975
1995
2015
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
What drives energy demand?
2016 Energy Outlook
4
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Global GDP and energy World GDP and energy demand
Energy intensity by region
Index (1965=100)
Toe per thousand $2010 GDP
1200
0.7
1000
GDP
0.5
800
0.4
600
0.3
400
0.2
200 0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
China US World EU India Africa
0.6
Primary energy
0.1 2000
0.0 1965
2035 5
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slower global GDP growth Annual growth rates 2014-35
Historical growth rates
% per annum
% per annum, 20-year moving average
5%
5%
GDP Primary energy Base case
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0% China
World
2016 Energy Outlook
China
GDP
Primary energy
1985
World 6
1995
2005
2015 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Energy intensity and energy demand Decline in world energy intensity
World energy demand Billion toe
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
1965-2014 1994-2014
Fastest 20-year average
Thousands
% per annum
25 20 15
1965-2014 1994-2014 Base case Flat demand
10
Base case 2014-35
5
Flat demand
0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
7
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Q: What drives energy demand? A: Global economic growth
2016 Energy Outlook
8
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Fuel mix Shares of primary energy
Annual demand growth by fuel Mtoe per annum
50%
250 Oil
40%
Renew.*
200 Coal
30% 20%
Gas
10%
Hydro
0% 1965
Hydro
150
Nuclear
*Includes biofuels
2016 Energy Outlook
2000
Renewables*
Nuclear
100
Coal
50
Gas Oil
0
2035
1994-2014 9
2014-35 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China’s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
2016 Energy Outlook
10
© BP p.l.c. 2016
US tight oil and shale gas US tight oil forecasts
US shale gas forecasts
Mb/d
Bcf/d
8
90
6
60
4
30
Forecast year: 2013 2014 2015 2016
2
0
0 2005
2015
2016 Energy Outlook
2025
2005
2035 11
2015
2025
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Global tight oil and shale gas Mb/d
Ten year supply increments: Tight oil Shale gas
5
Bcf/d 40
4
S & C America Middle East
30
3
Europe & Eurasia 20
Africa
2
Asia Pacific
10
1 0
North America
0 2005-15 2015-25 2025-35
2016 Energy Outlook
2005-15 2015-25 2025-35 12
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Market shares of tight oil and shale gas Shares of total oil/gas production 40%
Shale gas Tight oil
30% 20% 10% 0% 2015
2016 Energy Outlook
2020
2025 13
2030
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Market shares of tight oil and shale gas Shares of total oil/gas production 40%
Shale gas Tight oil
30%
Stronger shale case
20% Stronger shale case 10% 0% 2015 2016 Energy Outlook
2020
2025 14
2030
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China’s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
2016 Energy Outlook
15
© BP p.l.c. 2016
China’s changing energy needs GDP and primary energy growth
Shares of primary energy
% per annum 80%
10% GDP 8%
Coal
Primary energy
6% 40% 4%
Non-fossils
Oil
2% 0% 1985
0% 2000-14 2016 Energy Outlook
2014-25
2025-35 16
Gas 2010
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China’s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
2016 Energy Outlook
17
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Renewables and other non-fossil fuels Renewables in power forecasts Mtoe 1500
1000
Forecast year: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
500
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2016 Energy Outlook
18
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Renewables and other non-fossil fuels Renewables in power forecasts Mtoe
Mtoe
1500
400 200
1000
Revisions to non-fossil fuels vs 2011 Outlook Renewables Biofuels Total
Hydro Nuclear
0 Forecast year: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
500
0
-200 -400 2015
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2016 Energy Outlook
19
2020
2025
2030 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Oil demand and supply Demand
Supply
Mb/d 115 110
Other
105 95
Mid East Other Asia India
90
China
100
2035 level Other Brazil US
85 80 2014 2016 Energy Outlook
OECD decline
Non-OECD growth
2014
20
Non-OPEC growth
OPEC growth © BP p.l.c. 2016
Oil demand Vehicle fleet
Liquids fuel demand by sector Mb/d 70 60 50
Billion vehicles 3
Transport Industry Other Power
Non-OECD OECD
2
40
30 1
20 10 0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
2000
0 1965
2035 21
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Natural gas Shares of global gas consumption
Gas production by type and region Bcf/d 500 375
40%
Non-OECD shale OECD shale Non-OECD other OECD other
Total trade
30%
250
20%
Pipeline
125
10%
LNG
0 1990
2005
2016 Energy Outlook
2020
0% 1990
2035 22
2005
2020
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Changing outlook for carbon emissions
2016 Energy Outlook
23
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Carbon emissions % per annum
Decline in energy intensity
4% GDP
3%
Decline in carbon intensity
2%
1% CO2 0% 2016 Energy Outlook
1994-2014
2014-35 24
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Outlook for carbon emissions Carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO2 40 30
Base case Faster transition IEA 450
20 10
0 1975
1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
2035 25
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Outlook for carbon emissions Carbon emissions
Changes in intensity
Billion tonnes CO2 40 30
% per annum
Base case Faster transition IEA 450
0% 0%
20
-1% Carbon intensity
10
-2%
Energy intensity -1% -2%
-3%
1994-2014 Base case
IEA 450
0 1975
1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
-3%
2035 26
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Outlook for carbon emissions Carbon emissions
Changes in intensity
Billion tonnes CO2 40 30
% per annum
Base case Faster transition IEA 450
0% 0%
-1% Carbon intensity
20 10
-2%
Energy intensity -1% -2%
-3%
1994-2014 Base case Faster transition IEA 450
0 1975
1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
-3%
2035 27
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Impact of faster transition case Consumption by fuel
Annual demand growth by fuel
Billion toe
Mtoe per annum
5
250
4
150
Oil
100
3 2
Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Total
200
50 Coal
Gas
0 -50
1 0 1965
Hydro & Nuclear
*Includes biofuels
2016 Energy Outlook
2000
-100
19942014
Renewables* 2035 28
Base Faster CO2 case transition 2014-35 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Conclusions Global demand for energy continues to rise − to power increased levels of activity as the world economy continues to grow
Fuel mix changes significantly − coal losing, renewables gaining, and oil and gas combined holding steady
Growth rate of carbon emissions slows sharply − but further policy changes are needed 2016 Energy Outlook
29
© BP p.l.c. 2016
BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
Outlook to 2035
bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
Outlook to 2035
bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Base case Primary energy
2016 Energy Outlook
32
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Primary energy
Global GDP is expected to more than double… Population
GDP Trillion, $2010
9
250
Other
6
India
Thousands
Billion
Africa
3
China 0 1965
OECD OECD 2000
2016 Energy Outlook
2035
Contribution to GDP growth 2014-35 Trillion, $2010
0
200
10
20
30
Other
150
India
100
Africa China
50
OECD
0 1965
2000 33
2035
Population Productivity © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Primary energy
Growth in the world economy requires more energy…
Thousands
Consumption by region
Consumption growth by region 10 year average, % per annum 12% OECD China 10% Other Asia 8% Other 6% World
Billion toe 18
15
Other
12
Other Other Asia
9
6 3 0 1965
4%
China
2%
Industry
0%
OECD Transport 2000
2016 Energy Outlook
-2%
2035 34
1975
1995
2015
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Primary energy
The fuel mix is set to change significantly… Annual demand growth by fuel
Shares of primary energy 50%
Mtoe per annum 250
Oil
40% Coal
30% 20% 10%
Gas
200
Hydro
150
Nuclear Coal
100
Gas
50
Hydro
0% 1965
Renew.*
Nuclear
*Includes biofuels 2016 Energy Outlook
2000
Renewables*
2035
Oil
0 1994-2014
35
2014-35 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Primary energy
Much of the growth in energy is used for power generation… Inputs to power as a share of total primary energy
Primary inputs to power 100%
50%
Oil 75%
40%
Coal 50% Gas
30% 25% 20% 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
2000
2035 36
0% 1965
Nuclear
Renew.
Hydro 2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case Fuel by fuel detail
2016 Energy Outlook
37
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Strong growth in Asia drives increases in oil demand… Demand
Supply
Mb/d 115 110
Other
105
Mid East Other Asia India
100 95 90
2035 level Other Brazil US
China
85 80
2014
2016 Energy Outlook
OECD Non-OECD decline growth
2014
38
Non-OPEC OPEC growth growth © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Growth in liquids demand is driven by transport and industry… Liquids demand by sector Mb/d 70 60 50 40
Transport demand by fuel Mtoe 4
Transport Industry Other Power
3 2
30 20
1
10 0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
Electricity Coal Gas Biofuels
2000
2035 39
0 1965
Oil (nonOECD) Oil (OECD)
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
The global vehicle fleet more than doubles… Vehicle fleet
Vehicle ownership
Billion vehicles 3
Vehicles per 1000 people 900 US
Non-OECD OECD
600
2
1
300
China India
0 1975
1995
2015
2016 Energy Outlook
2035
0 1975
1995 40
2015
Litres per 100 km
20 15
Japan
Germany
Fuel economy of new cars US light vehicles EU China
10 5
0 2035 1975
1995
2015
2035
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Non-OPEC is the largest source of supply growth... Liquids supply by type
Regional net balances
Mb/d
Share
120 100
100% OPEC share (right axis)
80
80%
Other nonOPEC
40
Non-OPEC conventional crude
20
OPEC*
60
0 1990
2005
2020
75 50
60%
25
40%
0
20%
-25
0% 2035
-50 1990
*Includes crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) 2016 Energy Outlook
Mb/d
41
Middle East Europe S&C America N America
2005
FSU Asia Pacific Africa
2020
2035
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Refiners are challenged by spare capacity… Global liquids supply growth Mb/d, cumulative from 2014 0 5 10 15
Mb/d, cumulative from 2014 0 2 4 6
20
Other liquids
2020 2025 2030
NGLs production growth
2020 2025
Biofuels Crude and condensate
US Middle East Other
2030
NGLs
2035
2035 Energy Outlook 2035
8
42
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Demand for natural gas grows strongly… Demand by sector
Demand growth by region
Bcf/d
Bcf/d, 2014-35 120
500
250
Transport Other 90 Industry Power 60
125
30
375
0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
2000
0
2035
Non-OECD 43
OECD © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Global supplies of natural gas grow robustly… Gas production by type and region
Ten year increments
Bcf/d 500
Bcf/d 100 Non-OECD shale OECD shale
375 250
Non-OECD other OECD other
125 0 1985
75
Total
50 25 0
-25 2010
2016 Energy Outlook
1985- 1995- 2005- 2015- 20251995 2005 2015 2025 2035
2035 44
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Trade in gas grows broadly in line with global consumption… Trade as share of global consumption 40%
80% Europe
60%
Total trade
30%
40%
20%
0%
LNG
2005
2016 Energy Outlook
2020
China
20%
Pipeline
10% 0% 1990
Imports as share of consumption
-20% -40% 1990
2035 45
US
2005
2020
2035
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Growth in global coal demand slows sharply… Ten year increments by region
Coal consumption by region
Billion toe 1.2 Other China Total 0.8
Billion toe 5 4
Other
3
India
2
China
0.4
0.0
1 0 1975
-0.4
OECD 1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
India OECD
1975- 1985- 1995- 2005- 2015- 20251985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
2035 46
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Hydro and nuclear generation are set to grow steadily… Nuclear generation by region
Hydro generation by region Thousand TWh 6 Other Brazil 5 North America 4 Europe China 3
Thousand TWh 6 OECD Pacific Other 5 North America 4 Europe China 3
2
2
1
1
0 1965
0 1965
2016 Energy Outlook
2000
2035 47
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Renewables continue to grow rapidly… Levelized cost* of electricity in North America
Renewables share of power generation 40%
$2012/MWh 200
World China EU US
30%
2012
150 100
20% 10%
50
0%
0 1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
2020 2012
48
2035 2020
2035
* Excludes costs of grid integration
0
2035
Onshore wind Utility-scale solar PV
1 2 3 4 5 Capacity doublings from 2012 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case Key issues What drives energy demand? The changing outlook for carbon emissions What have we learned about US shale? China’s changing energy needs 2016 Energy Outlook
49
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: What drives energy demand?
Increases in energy demand are driven by economic growth… World GDP and energy demand Index (1965=100) 1200 1000 800
Energy intensity by region Toe per thousand $2010 GDP 0.7
GDP
0.6
Primary energy
0.5 0.4
600
0.3
400
0.2
200 0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
World US China EU India Africa
0.1 2000
2035 50
0.0 1965
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: What drives energy demand?
Alternative assumptions about energy intensity… Decline in world energy intensity -1%
-2%
-3%
1965-2014
1994-2014 Base case 2014-35
Fastest 20-year average
-4%
Thousands
% per annum 0%
World energy demand
10 5
Flat demand
2016 Energy Outlook
Billion toe 25 1965-2014 1994-2014 20 Base case Flat demand 15
0 1965 51
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: The changing outlook for carbon emissions
The growth rate of carbon emissions more than halves… Decoupling emissions growth from GDP growth % per annum 4%
Decline in energy intensity
GDP
3%
Decline in carbon intensity
2% 1%
CO2 0% Energy Outlook 2035
1994-2014
2014-35 52
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: The changing outlook for carbon emissions
But carbon emissions continue to rise… Changes in intensity
Carbon emissions
% per annum
Billion tonnes CO2 40 Non-OECD OECD 30 IEA 450
0%
1994-2014
20 10
-2%
2016 Energy Outlook
-3%
0%
-1% Carbon intensity
0 1965
Energy intensity -1% -2%
1965-85
Base case 2014-35
IEA 450 2013-40
2000
-3%
2035 53
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: What have we learned about US shale?
The outlook for US shale has been revised up repeatedly… US tight oil forecasts
US shale gas forecasts
Mb/d 8
Bcf/d 90
6
60
4 30
Forecast year: 2013 2014 2015 2016
2 0
2005
2015
2016 Energy Outlook
2025
2035 54
0
2005
2015
2025
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: What have we learned about US shale?
The global growth in tight oil slows… Global tight oil production Mb/d
Ten year increments by region
Share
Mb/d
12
Tight oil
12%
5
10
Share of total liquids (right axis)
10%
4
8
8%
3
6
6%
4
4%
2
2%
1
0
0%
0
2005
2015
2016 Energy Outlook
2025
S & C America Europe & Eurasia Asia Pacific North America
2
2035
2005-15 55
2015-25
2025-35 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: What have we learned about US shale?
Shale gas production continues to expand rapidly… Global shale gas production Bcf/d
Ten year increments by region
120
30%
100
25%
80
20%
60
15%
40
Shale gas 10% Share of total 5% production (right axis) 0% 2025 2035
20
0 2005
Bcf/d
Share
2015
2016 Energy Outlook
40
S&C America Middle East
30
20
Europe & Eurasia Africa
10
Asia Pacific North America
0 2005-15 2015-25 2025-35 56
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: China’s changing energy needs
China’s energy needs are changing… GDP and primary energy growth
Primary energy growth and changing economic structure
% per annum
% per annum
10%
10%
GDP
8%
8%
Primary energy
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0% 2000-14
2016 Energy Outlook
2014-25
No change in economic structure Base case Faster change
2000-14
2025-35 57
2014-35 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: China’s changing energy needs
China’s fuel mix is also likely to change significantly… Shares of primary energy in China
Ratio of coal demand growth to GDP growth
Average ratio during previous five years 1.6
80% Coal
1.2 0.8
40%
0.4
Non-fossils
Oil
0.0
0% 1985 2016 Energy Outlook
Gas 2010
-0.4
2035
2005 58
2015
2025
2035
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case Main changes
2016 Energy Outlook
59
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Main changes
Energy demand in 2035 has been revised down… Changes to level in 2035 relative to previous Outlook Mtoe 13.9%
200
Percentage revision to level in 2035
100
0.6%
0
2.0%
2.1%
-100 -200
-2.8%
-0.8%
-300 Energy
-6.0% Coal
Range of annual revisions for 2012-2015 Outlooks** Renew*
Gas
* Renewables including biofuels 2016 Energy Outlook
Oil
Hydro
Nuclear
** Revision in final year of Outlook 60
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Main changes
Renewables have been revised up repeatedly... Renewable power forecasts
Revisions to non-fossil fuels vs 2011 Outlook Mtoe
Mtoe 1400
500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400
1200 1000 800 600
Forecast year: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
400 200
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Renewables Hydro Biofuels Nuclear
2015
2020
Note: Projected growth from each Outlook applied to latest 2010 data
2016 Energy Outlook
61
2025
2030
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Main changes
Gas demand growth has been weaker than expected… Gas consumption forecasts
Key revisions in 2030 by region (relative to 2011 Outlook)
Billion toe
Mtoe
4.5
-300 -150
0
150
300
Europe -26%
4.0
3.5
Middle East
Forecast year:
3.0
2016 2011
Non-OECD Asia
2.5 2010 2016 Energy Outlook
2020
North America
2030
-13% -9%
25%
Note: Projected growth applied to latest 2010 data 62
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key uncertainties Slower global GDP growth Faster transition to a lower-carbon world
Shale oil and gas have even greater potential
2016 Energy Outlook
63
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key uncertainties
Exploring the impact of alternative assumptions…
Case 1: Slower global GDP growth
Case 2: Faster transition to a lower-carbon world
Case 3: Shale oil and gas have even greater potential
2016 Energy Outlook
64
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Slower GDP growth
Case 1: Slower global GDP growth... Historical growth rates
Slower GDP growth case 2014-35 Growth, % per annum 5% 4%
% per annum, 20-year moving average 5%
GDP Primary energy Base case
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0% China
World
2016 Energy Outlook
China
GDP
Primary energy
1985
World 65
1995
2005
2015 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slower GDP growth
Demand growth is slower across all fuels... Differences from base case in 2035: Energy demand by region Energy demand by fuel
Mtoe -400 -300
-200
-100
-5%
Mtoe -800 -600 -400 -200
0
-14%
Oil
-7%
Gas
-8%
Coal
-10% 2016 Energy Outlook
-7%
Nuclear
-5%
Hydro
China -7%
Other nonOECD Asia
-6%
Rest of World
-10%
Middle East
-1%
Renew. 66
0
OECD © BP p.l.c. 2016
Faster transition
The speed of transition to a lower-carbon energy system… Changes in intensity
Carbon emissions
% per annum
Billion tonnes CO2 40
0% 0%
30 -1% Carbon intensity -2%
20
10 0 1975
Base case IEA New Policies Faster transition IEA 450
1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
Energy intensity -1% -2%
-3%
IEA NP
1994-2014 Base case
Faster transition IEA 450
-3%
2035 67
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Faster transition
The faster transition has a significant impact… Consumption by fuel
Annual demand growth by fuel
Billion toe 5
4
Mtoe per annum
250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100
Oil
3 2
Coal
1 0 1965
Gas
Hydro & Nuclear
*Includes biofuels 2016 Energy Outlook
2000
Renewables*
Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Total
19942014
2035 68
Faster transition 2014-35
Base
CO2
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Stronger shale
Case 3: Tight oil and shale gas having even greater potential… Differences in supply from base case Mtoe 800 600
Shares of total oil/gas production Share 40%
Shale gas Tight oil
30%
Stronger shale
Shale gas Tight oil
Base case
400
20%
200
10%
Stronger shale
Base case 0%
0 2015 2016 Energy Outlook
2025
2015
2035 69
2025
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Stronger shale
Higher shale output crowds out conventional production… Differences from base case in 2035: Oil and gas production Consumption by fuel Mtoe 1250 1000 750
Mtoe 400
OPEC crude Shale and tight Other Total
Gas
Oil
Total
200 100
250
0
0
-100
-250
-200
-500
-300
2016 Energy Outlook
Coal
300
500
Oil
Other
Gas
Industry Power Transport Other 70
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Annex Annual revisions in detail Fast facts and key figures
Comparison with other energy outlooks Data sources 2016 Energy Outlook
71
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Annex
Growth 2014-35 (p.a.)
Growth 2014-35 (cumulative)
2014 (share)
2035 (share)
Primary energy Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Renewables*
1.4% 0.9% 1.8% 0.5% 1.9% 1.8% 6.6%
34% 20% 44% 10% 50% 45% 285%
100% 32% 24% 30% 4% 7% 3%
100% 29% 26% 25% 5% 7% 9%
Population GDP ($2010 PPP) Energy Intensity CO2 emissions
0.9% 3.5% -2.1% 0.9%
21% 107% -35% 20%
* Includes biofuels 2016 Energy Outlook
72
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Annex
Annual revisions in detail Changes in 2035 levels versus the February 2015 Outlook Revised down
Revised up
Energy demand
US Other OECD China India Africa Middle East Other non-OECD
Liquids supply Gas supply Coal demand
Non-fossil fuels -400 2016 Energy Outlook
-300
-200
-100
0 100 Mtoe 73
200
300 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Annex
Comparison with other energy outlooks Growth of energy consumption, 2010-30 Billion toe 5
Billion toe 5
Non-OECD OECD
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
BP
IEA
2016 Energy Outlook
MIT
IEEJ
BP 74
Other Gas
IEA
Nuclear Liquids
MIT
Coal
IEEJ © BP p.l.c. 2016
Spencer Dale, group chief economist
bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Outlook to 2035
Economic backdrop GDP
Contribution to GDP growth 2014-35
Trillion, $2010 250 200
Trillion, $2010 0
Other India
100
20
30
Other
Africa 150
10
India
China OECD
Africa China
50 0 1965
OECD
OECD
2016 Energy Outlook
2000
Population
2035 2
Productivity © BP p.l.c. 2016
Global energy demand Consumption by region
Consumption growth by region
Billion toe
10 year average, % per annum
18
12%
Other Asia
10%
China
8%
World
Other
15
Other Asia
12
China
9
Other
OECD
4%
6 3 0 1965
OECD
6%
2%
Industry Transport
2016 Energy Outlook
2000
0% -2%
2035 3
1975
1995
2015
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
What drives energy demand?
2016 Energy Outlook
4
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Global GDP and energy World GDP and energy demand
Energy intensity by region
Index (1965=100)
Toe per thousand $2010 GDP
1200
0.7
1000
GDP
0.5
800
0.4
600
0.3
400
0.2
200 0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
China US World EU India Africa
0.6
Primary energy
0.1 2000
0.0 1965
2035 5
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slower global GDP growth Annual growth rates 2014-35
Historical growth rates
% per annum
% per annum, 20-year moving average
5%
5%
GDP Primary energy Base case
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0% China
World
2016 Energy Outlook
China
GDP
Primary energy
1985
World 6
1995
2005
2015 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Energy intensity and energy demand Decline in world energy intensity
World energy demand Billion toe
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
1965-2014 1994-2014
Fastest 20-year average
Thousands
% per annum
25 20 15
1965-2014 1994-2014 Base case Flat demand
10
Base case 2014-35
5
Flat demand
0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
7
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Q: What drives energy demand? A: Global economic growth
2016 Energy Outlook
8
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Fuel mix Shares of primary energy
Annual demand growth by fuel Mtoe per annum
50%
250 Oil
40%
Renew.*
200 Coal
30% 20%
Gas
10%
Hydro
0% 1965
Hydro
150
Nuclear
*Includes biofuels
2016 Energy Outlook
2000
Renewables*
Nuclear
100
Coal
50
Gas Oil
0
2035
1994-2014 9
2014-35 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China’s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
2016 Energy Outlook
10
© BP p.l.c. 2016
US tight oil and shale gas US tight oil forecasts
US shale gas forecasts
Mb/d
Bcf/d
8
90
6
60
4
30
Forecast year: 2013 2014 2015 2016
2
0
0 2005
2015
2016 Energy Outlook
2025
2005
2035 11
2015
2025
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Global tight oil and shale gas Mb/d
Ten year supply increments: Tight oil Shale gas
5
Bcf/d 40
4
S & C America Middle East
30
3
Europe & Eurasia 20
Africa
2
Asia Pacific
10
1 0
North America
0 2005-15 2015-25 2025-35
2016 Energy Outlook
2005-15 2015-25 2025-35 12
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Market shares of tight oil and shale gas Shares of total oil/gas production 40%
Shale gas Tight oil
30% 20% 10% 0% 2015
2016 Energy Outlook
2020
2025 13
2030
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Market shares of tight oil and shale gas Shares of total oil/gas production 40%
Shale gas Tight oil
30%
Stronger shale case
20% Stronger shale case 10% 0% 2015 2016 Energy Outlook
2020
2025 14
2030
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China’s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
2016 Energy Outlook
15
© BP p.l.c. 2016
China’s changing energy needs GDP and primary energy growth
Shares of primary energy
% per annum 80%
10% GDP 8%
Coal
Primary energy
6% 40% 4%
Non-fossils
Oil
2% 0% 1985
0% 2000-14 2016 Energy Outlook
2014-25
2025-35 16
Gas 2010
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China’s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
2016 Energy Outlook
17
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Renewables and other non-fossil fuels Renewables in power forecasts Mtoe 1500
1000
Forecast year: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
500
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2016 Energy Outlook
18
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Renewables and other non-fossil fuels Renewables in power forecasts Mtoe
Mtoe
1500
400 200
1000
Revisions to non-fossil fuels vs 2011 Outlook Renewables Biofuels Total
Hydro Nuclear
0 Forecast year: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
500
0
-200 -400 2015
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2016 Energy Outlook
19
2020
2025
2030 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Oil demand and supply Demand
Supply
Mb/d 115 110
Other
105 95
Mid East Other Asia India
90
China
100
2035 level Other Brazil US
85 80 2014 2016 Energy Outlook
OECD decline
Non-OECD growth
2014
20
Non-OPEC growth
OPEC growth © BP p.l.c. 2016
Oil demand Vehicle fleet
Liquids fuel demand by sector Mb/d 70 60 50
Billion vehicles 3
Transport Industry Other Power
Non-OECD OECD
2
40
30 1
20 10 0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
2000
0 1965
2035 21
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Natural gas Shares of global gas consumption
Gas production by type and region Bcf/d 500 375
40%
Non-OECD shale OECD shale Non-OECD other OECD other
Total trade
30%
250
20%
Pipeline
125
10%
LNG
0 1990
2005
2016 Energy Outlook
2020
0% 1990
2035 22
2005
2020
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Changing outlook for carbon emissions
2016 Energy Outlook
23
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Carbon emissions % per annum
Decline in energy intensity
4% GDP
3%
Decline in carbon intensity
2%
1% CO2 0% 2016 Energy Outlook
1994-2014
2014-35 24
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Outlook for carbon emissions Carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO2 40 30
Base case Faster transition IEA 450
20 10
0 1975
1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
2035 25
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Outlook for carbon emissions Carbon emissions
Changes in intensity
Billion tonnes CO2 40 30
% per annum
Base case Faster transition IEA 450
0% 0%
20
-1% Carbon intensity
10
-2%
Energy intensity -1% -2%
-3%
1994-2014 Base case
IEA 450
0 1975
1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
-3%
2035 26
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Outlook for carbon emissions Carbon emissions
Changes in intensity
Billion tonnes CO2 40 30
% per annum
Base case Faster transition IEA 450
0% 0%
-1% Carbon intensity
20 10
-2%
Energy intensity -1% -2%
-3%
1994-2014 Base case Faster transition IEA 450
0 1975
1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
-3%
2035 27
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Impact of faster transition case Consumption by fuel
Annual demand growth by fuel
Billion toe
Mtoe per annum
5
250
4
150
Oil
100
3 2
Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Total
200
50 Coal
Gas
0 -50
1 0 1965
Hydro & Nuclear
*Includes biofuels
2016 Energy Outlook
2000
-100
19942014
Renewables* 2035 28
Base Faster CO2 case transition 2014-35 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Conclusions Global demand for energy continues to rise − to power increased levels of activity as the world economy continues to grow
Fuel mix changes significantly − coal losing, renewables gaining, and oil and gas combined holding steady
Growth rate of carbon emissions slows sharply − but further policy changes are needed 2016 Energy Outlook
29
© BP p.l.c. 2016
BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
Outlook to 2035
bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
Outlook to 2035
bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Base case Primary energy
2016 Energy Outlook
32
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Primary energy
Global GDP is expected to more than double… Population
GDP Trillion, $2010
9
250
Other
6
India
Thousands
Billion
Africa
3
China 0 1965
OECD OECD 2000
2016 Energy Outlook
2035
Contribution to GDP growth 2014-35 Trillion, $2010
0
200
10
20
30
Other
150
India
100
Africa China
50
OECD
0 1965
2000 33
2035
Population Productivity © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Primary energy
Growth in the world economy requires more energy…
Thousands
Consumption by region
Consumption growth by region 10 year average, % per annum 12% OECD China 10% Other Asia 8% Other 6% World
Billion toe 18
15
Other
12
Other Other Asia
9
6 3 0 1965
4%
China
2%
Industry
0%
OECD Transport 2000
2016 Energy Outlook
-2%
2035 34
1975
1995
2015
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Primary energy
The fuel mix is set to change significantly… Annual demand growth by fuel
Shares of primary energy 50%
Mtoe per annum 250
Oil
40% Coal
30% 20% 10%
Gas
200
Hydro
150
Nuclear Coal
100
Gas
50
Hydro
0% 1965
Renew.*
Nuclear
*Includes biofuels 2016 Energy Outlook
2000
Renewables*
2035
Oil
0 1994-2014
35
2014-35 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Primary energy
Much of the growth in energy is used for power generation… Inputs to power as a share of total primary energy
Primary inputs to power 100%
50%
Oil 75%
40%
Coal 50% Gas
30% 25% 20% 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
2000
2035 36
0% 1965
Nuclear
Renew.
Hydro 2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case Fuel by fuel detail
2016 Energy Outlook
37
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Strong growth in Asia drives increases in oil demand… Demand
Supply
Mb/d 115 110
Other
105
Mid East Other Asia India
100 95 90
2035 level Other Brazil US
China
85 80
2014
2016 Energy Outlook
OECD Non-OECD decline growth
2014
38
Non-OPEC OPEC growth growth © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Growth in liquids demand is driven by transport and industry… Liquids demand by sector Mb/d 70 60 50 40
Transport demand by fuel Mtoe 4
Transport Industry Other Power
3 2
30 20
1
10 0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
Electricity Coal Gas Biofuels
2000
2035 39
0 1965
Oil (nonOECD) Oil (OECD)
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
The global vehicle fleet more than doubles… Vehicle fleet
Vehicle ownership
Billion vehicles 3
Vehicles per 1000 people 900 US
Non-OECD OECD
600
2
1
300
China India
0 1975
1995
2015
2016 Energy Outlook
2035
0 1975
1995 40
2015
Litres per 100 km
20 15
Japan
Germany
Fuel economy of new cars US light vehicles EU China
10 5
0 2035 1975
1995
2015
2035
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Non-OPEC is the largest source of supply growth... Liquids supply by type
Regional net balances
Mb/d
Share
120 100
100% OPEC share (right axis)
80
80%
Other nonOPEC
40
Non-OPEC conventional crude
20
OPEC*
60
0 1990
2005
2020
75 50
60%
25
40%
0
20%
-25
0% 2035
-50 1990
*Includes crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) 2016 Energy Outlook
Mb/d
41
Middle East Europe S&C America N America
2005
FSU Asia Pacific Africa
2020
2035
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Refiners are challenged by spare capacity… Global liquids supply growth Mb/d, cumulative from 2014 0 5 10 15
Mb/d, cumulative from 2014 0 2 4 6
20
Other liquids
2020 2025 2030
NGLs production growth
2020 2025
Biofuels Crude and condensate
US Middle East Other
2030
NGLs
2035
2035 Energy Outlook 2035
8
42
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Demand for natural gas grows strongly… Demand by sector
Demand growth by region
Bcf/d
Bcf/d, 2014-35 120
500
250
Transport Other 90 Industry Power 60
125
30
375
0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
2000
0
2035
Non-OECD 43
OECD © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Global supplies of natural gas grow robustly… Gas production by type and region
Ten year increments
Bcf/d 500
Bcf/d 100 Non-OECD shale OECD shale
375 250
Non-OECD other OECD other
125 0 1985
75
Total
50 25 0
-25 2010
2016 Energy Outlook
1985- 1995- 2005- 2015- 20251995 2005 2015 2025 2035
2035 44
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Trade in gas grows broadly in line with global consumption… Trade as share of global consumption 40%
80% Europe
60%
Total trade
30%
40%
20%
0%
LNG
2005
2016 Energy Outlook
2020
China
20%
Pipeline
10% 0% 1990
Imports as share of consumption
-20% -40% 1990
2035 45
US
2005
2020
2035
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Growth in global coal demand slows sharply… Ten year increments by region
Coal consumption by region
Billion toe 1.2 Other China Total 0.8
Billion toe 5 4
Other
3
India
2
China
0.4
0.0
1 0 1975
-0.4
OECD 1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
India OECD
1975- 1985- 1995- 2005- 2015- 20251985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
2035 46
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Hydro and nuclear generation are set to grow steadily… Nuclear generation by region
Hydro generation by region Thousand TWh 6 Other Brazil 5 North America 4 Europe China 3
Thousand TWh 6 OECD Pacific Other 5 North America 4 Europe China 3
2
2
1
1
0 1965
0 1965
2016 Energy Outlook
2000
2035 47
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail
Renewables continue to grow rapidly… Levelized cost* of electricity in North America
Renewables share of power generation 40%
$2012/MWh 200
World China EU US
30%
2012
150 100
20% 10%
50
0%
0 1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
2020 2012
48
2035 2020
2035
* Excludes costs of grid integration
0
2035
Onshore wind Utility-scale solar PV
1 2 3 4 5 Capacity doublings from 2012 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case Key issues What drives energy demand? The changing outlook for carbon emissions What have we learned about US shale? China’s changing energy needs 2016 Energy Outlook
49
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: What drives energy demand?
Increases in energy demand are driven by economic growth… World GDP and energy demand Index (1965=100) 1200 1000 800
Energy intensity by region Toe per thousand $2010 GDP 0.7
GDP
0.6
Primary energy
0.5 0.4
600
0.3
400
0.2
200 0 1965 2016 Energy Outlook
World US China EU India Africa
0.1 2000
2035 50
0.0 1965
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: What drives energy demand?
Alternative assumptions about energy intensity… Decline in world energy intensity -1%
-2%
-3%
1965-2014
1994-2014 Base case 2014-35
Fastest 20-year average
-4%
Thousands
% per annum 0%
World energy demand
10 5
Flat demand
2016 Energy Outlook
Billion toe 25 1965-2014 1994-2014 20 Base case Flat demand 15
0 1965 51
2000
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: The changing outlook for carbon emissions
The growth rate of carbon emissions more than halves… Decoupling emissions growth from GDP growth % per annum 4%
Decline in energy intensity
GDP
3%
Decline in carbon intensity
2% 1%
CO2 0% Energy Outlook 2035
1994-2014
2014-35 52
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: The changing outlook for carbon emissions
But carbon emissions continue to rise… Changes in intensity
Carbon emissions
% per annum
Billion tonnes CO2 40 Non-OECD OECD 30 IEA 450
0%
1994-2014
20 10
-2%
2016 Energy Outlook
-3%
0%
-1% Carbon intensity
0 1965
Energy intensity -1% -2%
1965-85
Base case 2014-35
IEA 450 2013-40
2000
-3%
2035 53
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: What have we learned about US shale?
The outlook for US shale has been revised up repeatedly… US tight oil forecasts
US shale gas forecasts
Mb/d 8
Bcf/d 90
6
60
4 30
Forecast year: 2013 2014 2015 2016
2 0
2005
2015
2016 Energy Outlook
2025
2035 54
0
2005
2015
2025
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: What have we learned about US shale?
The global growth in tight oil slows… Global tight oil production Mb/d
Ten year increments by region
Share
Mb/d
12
Tight oil
12%
5
10
Share of total liquids (right axis)
10%
4
8
8%
3
6
6%
4
4%
2
2%
1
0
0%
0
2005
2015
2016 Energy Outlook
2025
S & C America Europe & Eurasia Asia Pacific North America
2
2035
2005-15 55
2015-25
2025-35 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: What have we learned about US shale?
Shale gas production continues to expand rapidly… Global shale gas production Bcf/d
Ten year increments by region
120
30%
100
25%
80
20%
60
15%
40
Shale gas 10% Share of total 5% production (right axis) 0% 2025 2035
20
0 2005
Bcf/d
Share
2015
2016 Energy Outlook
40
S&C America Middle East
30
20
Europe & Eurasia Africa
10
Asia Pacific North America
0 2005-15 2015-25 2025-35 56
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: China’s changing energy needs
China’s energy needs are changing… GDP and primary energy growth
Primary energy growth and changing economic structure
% per annum
% per annum
10%
10%
GDP
8%
8%
Primary energy
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0% 2000-14
2016 Energy Outlook
2014-25
No change in economic structure Base case Faster change
2000-14
2025-35 57
2014-35 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Key issues: China’s changing energy needs
China’s fuel mix is also likely to change significantly… Shares of primary energy in China
Ratio of coal demand growth to GDP growth
Average ratio during previous five years 1.6
80% Coal
1.2 0.8
40%
0.4
Non-fossils
Oil
0.0
0% 1985 2016 Energy Outlook
Gas 2010
-0.4
2035
2005 58
2015
2025
2035
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case Main changes
2016 Energy Outlook
59
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Main changes
Energy demand in 2035 has been revised down… Changes to level in 2035 relative to previous Outlook Mtoe 13.9%
200
Percentage revision to level in 2035
100
0.6%
0
2.0%
2.1%
-100 -200
-2.8%
-0.8%
-300 Energy
-6.0% Coal
Range of annual revisions for 2012-2015 Outlooks** Renew*
Gas
* Renewables including biofuels 2016 Energy Outlook
Oil
Hydro
Nuclear
** Revision in final year of Outlook 60
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Main changes
Renewables have been revised up repeatedly... Renewable power forecasts
Revisions to non-fossil fuels vs 2011 Outlook Mtoe
Mtoe 1400
500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400
1200 1000 800 600
Forecast year: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
400 200
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Renewables Hydro Biofuels Nuclear
2015
2020
Note: Projected growth from each Outlook applied to latest 2010 data
2016 Energy Outlook
61
2025
2030
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Base case: Main changes
Gas demand growth has been weaker than expected… Gas consumption forecasts
Key revisions in 2030 by region (relative to 2011 Outlook)
Billion toe
Mtoe
4.5
-300 -150
0
150
300
Europe -26%
4.0
3.5
Middle East
Forecast year:
3.0
2016 2011
Non-OECD Asia
2.5 2010 2016 Energy Outlook
2020
North America
2030
-13% -9%
25%
Note: Projected growth applied to latest 2010 data 62
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key uncertainties Slower global GDP growth Faster transition to a lower-carbon world
Shale oil and gas have even greater potential
2016 Energy Outlook
63
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key uncertainties
Exploring the impact of alternative assumptions…
Case 1: Slower global GDP growth
Case 2: Faster transition to a lower-carbon world
Case 3: Shale oil and gas have even greater potential
2016 Energy Outlook
64
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Slower GDP growth
Case 1: Slower global GDP growth... Historical growth rates
Slower GDP growth case 2014-35 Growth, % per annum 5% 4%
% per annum, 20-year moving average 5%
GDP Primary energy Base case
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0% China
World
2016 Energy Outlook
China
GDP
Primary energy
1985
World 65
1995
2005
2015 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slower GDP growth
Demand growth is slower across all fuels... Differences from base case in 2035: Energy demand by region Energy demand by fuel
Mtoe -400 -300
-200
-100
-5%
Mtoe -800 -600 -400 -200
0
-14%
Oil
-7%
Gas
-8%
Coal
-10% 2016 Energy Outlook
-7%
Nuclear
-5%
Hydro
China -7%
Other nonOECD Asia
-6%
Rest of World
-10%
Middle East
-1%
Renew. 66
0
OECD © BP p.l.c. 2016
Faster transition
The speed of transition to a lower-carbon energy system… Changes in intensity
Carbon emissions
% per annum
Billion tonnes CO2 40
0% 0%
30 -1% Carbon intensity -2%
20
10 0 1975
Base case IEA New Policies Faster transition IEA 450
1995
2016 Energy Outlook
2015
Energy intensity -1% -2%
-3%
IEA NP
1994-2014 Base case
Faster transition IEA 450
-3%
2035 67
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Faster transition
The faster transition has a significant impact… Consumption by fuel
Annual demand growth by fuel
Billion toe 5
4
Mtoe per annum
250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100
Oil
3 2
Coal
1 0 1965
Gas
Hydro & Nuclear
*Includes biofuels 2016 Energy Outlook
2000
Renewables*
Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Total
19942014
2035 68
Faster transition 2014-35
Base
CO2
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Stronger shale
Case 3: Tight oil and shale gas having even greater potential… Differences in supply from base case Mtoe 800 600
Shares of total oil/gas production Share 40%
Shale gas Tight oil
30%
Stronger shale
Shale gas Tight oil
Base case
400
20%
200
10%
Stronger shale
Base case 0%
0 2015 2016 Energy Outlook
2025
2015
2035 69
2025
2035 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Stronger shale
Higher shale output crowds out conventional production… Differences from base case in 2035: Oil and gas production Consumption by fuel Mtoe 1250 1000 750
Mtoe 400
OPEC crude Shale and tight Other Total
Gas
Oil
Total
200 100
250
0
0
-100
-250
-200
-500
-300
2016 Energy Outlook
Coal
300
500
Oil
Other
Gas
Industry Power Transport Other 70
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Annex Annual revisions in detail Fast facts and key figures
Comparison with other energy outlooks Data sources 2016 Energy Outlook
71
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Annex
Growth 2014-35 (p.a.)
Growth 2014-35 (cumulative)
2014 (share)
2035 (share)
Primary energy Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Renewables*
1.4% 0.9% 1.8% 0.5% 1.9% 1.8% 6.6%
34% 20% 44% 10% 50% 45% 285%
100% 32% 24% 30% 4% 7% 3%
100% 29% 26% 25% 5% 7% 9%
Population GDP ($2010 PPP) Energy Intensity CO2 emissions
0.9% 3.5% -2.1% 0.9%
21% 107% -35% 20%
* Includes biofuels 2016 Energy Outlook
72
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Annex
Annual revisions in detail Changes in 2035 levels versus the February 2015 Outlook Revised down
Revised up
Energy demand
US Other OECD China India Africa Middle East Other non-OECD
Liquids supply Gas supply Coal demand
Non-fossil fuels -400 2016 Energy Outlook
-300
-200
-100
0 100 Mtoe 73
200
300 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Annex
Comparison with other energy outlooks Growth of energy consumption, 2010-30 Billion toe 5
Billion toe 5
Non-OECD OECD
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
BP
IEA
2016 Energy Outlook
MIT
IEEJ
BP 74
Other Gas
IEA
Nuclear Liquids
MIT
Coal
IEEJ © BP p.l.c. 2016
