Energy Technology: Transitions for Industry
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Energy Technology Transitions for Industry:
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution Michael Taylor Energy Technology Policy Division IEA, Paris
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Energy Technology Transitions for Industry ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Industry is a key actor in
the fight against climate change Some progress to date, but more is needed Technology can help bring about a low carbon industrial revolution Global action is needed
Key Findings ENERGY
Global deployment of BAT could
TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
improve energy efficiency by 20 to 30% … but this is not enough – demand will double or triple by 2050 New technologies are needed for deep CO2 reductions CCS is a key option of the sector Biomass will play an important role De-carbonised power sector is critical Total additional investments needed for BLUE are estimated at USD 2 – 2.5 trillion
CO2 Emissions in Industry 14
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
12
TRANSITIONS
Baseline low 2050 emissions 11.2 Gt CO2
FOR INDUSTRY Emissions (Gt CO2)
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
10
8
6
BLUE low 2050 emissions 5.7 Gt CO2
4
Recycling and energy recovery (9%) End use fuel efficiency (40%) Fuel and feedstock switching (21%)
2
CCS (energy and process) (30%)
0 2005
© OECD/IEA - 2009
2010
2015
2020
Direct energy and process emissions only
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Materials Production ENERGY
Paper and paperboard
2 500
Crude steel
TECHNOLOGY
Chemical f eedstocks
Cement
TRANSITIONS
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Materials production (Mt)
FOR INDUSTRY
2 000
Aluminium
1 500
1 000
500
OECD Europe OECD North America
© OECD/IEA - 2009
OECD Pacif ic
China
India
Other developing Asia
Economies in transition
Af rica and Middle East
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
0
Latin America
Final Energy Use in Industry ENERGY
300
TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS
250
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Energy consumption (EJ)
FOR INDUSTRY 200 Other renewables
Biomass and waste Heat
150
Electricity Natural gas Oil
Coal 100
50
0 2006
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Baseline low 2050
BLUE low 2050
Baseline high 2050
BLUE high 2050
CO2 Emissions in Industry 14
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
12
TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY
Emissions (Gt CO2)
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
10
Other
8
Pulp and paper Iron and steel
Chemicals 6
Cement
Aluminium
4
2
0 2006
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Baseline low 2050
BLUE low 2050
Direct energy and process emissions only
Baseline high 2050
BLUE high 2050
Key Options ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
BAT everywhere (energy
efficiency measures) CO2 Capture and Storage CCS Fuel switching Increased recycling New Technologies
Contribution to Emissions Reduction ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
2050 BLUE Low Scenario
2050 BLUE High Scenario
14.7 Gt including 8.8 Gt indirect emissions reduction
16.6 Gt including 9.2 Gt indirect emissions reduction
TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Carbon Capture and Storage ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
The Cement Industry
Cement and Russia in Perspective: Direct CO2 Emissions 2006
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Cement’s Contribution
(reduction below the Baseline in 2050) ENERGY
0
TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS
-1000
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Mt CO2 in 2050
FOR INDUSTRY
BLUE Low
BLUE High
Other
-2000
Aluminium
-3000
Pulp, paper and print
-4000 -5000
Chemicals and petrochemicals
Cement -6000 Iron and steel -7000 -8000
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Key Options in Cement ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Improve energy efficiency: shift to BAT ~3-3.2 GJ/t clinker Increase use of clinker
substitutes (fly ash, GBFS, etc) Increase use of alternative fuels Carbon Capture and Storage Longer term: New cement types?
Cement Production by Technology ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Trend towards higher share of the more efficient dry-process © OECD/IEA - 2009
Alternative Fuel Use ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Outside of Europe and North America use is still very low: significant potential remains! © OECD/IEA - 2009
Cement Sector: BAT Energy Saving Potential ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Cement Sector: BAT CO2 savings potential ENERGY 600
TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY
500
CO2 savings potential (Mt CO2/yr)
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
0.8
Fly ash and other clinker substitutes Blast furnace slag
0.7
Alternative fuel 0.6 Electricity savings
400
300
Fossil fuel savings
0.5
Specific savings potential (t CO2 / t cement)
0.4
0.3 0.3
200
0.3
0.3
0.3 0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2 0.1
100
0.1
0.1
0
0.0 World
© OECD/IEA - 2009
China
Russia Canada United States
Korea
Brazil
India
OECD Japan Europe
Other
Savings potential (t CO2/t cement)
TECHNOLOGY
Cement – Key Findings Emissions from the cement sector in BLUE falls ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
18% compared to today Efficiency essential to 2030 Alternative fuels and switching important Limited improvements from clinker substitutes CCS is key – demo in cement kilns needed by 2015 with deployment from 2020 50% of all kilns to be equipped with CCS by 2050 BLUE low scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2009
BLUE high scenario
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
The Transition to 2050: IEA Technology Roadmaps
IEA Technology Roadmaps ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Key technologies identified by
ETP2008 Technological development requires co-operation Value of roadmaps recognised by MEM, G8+3 meetings etc IEA asked to play a leading role Cement roadmap in collaboration with WBCSD- Cement Sustainability Initiative
IEA Roadmap Definition ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
“A technology roadmap is a dynamic set of technical, policy, legal, financial, market & organizational requirements identified by all stakeholders involved in its development. The effort shall lead to improved and enhanced sharing and collaboration of all related technologyspecific RDD&D information among participants. The goal is to accelerate the overall RDD&D process in order to deliver an earlier uptake of the specific energy technology into the marketplace”.
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Cement roadmap process ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS
Cement demand data (IEA)
38 technology papers (ECRA/CSI)
FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Cement Sector Roadmap
CCS transport and storage
CSI and IEA members review
Concrete
Financing Policy Public acceptance © OECD/IEA - 2009
Roadmap Messages ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Cement is a key material. Demand
© OECD/IEA - 2009
reduction / substitution is not an option. Options today (BAT, alternative fuels and clinker substitutes) are not sufficient New technology is needed – CCS and new cement types Step increase in RD&D needed, a very long term solution is required Deep emission cuts are costly (USD 50100/t CO2) and capital intensive Policy should address economic implications Cement will become twice as expensive – a challenge and an opportunity
Four Reduction Levers ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Thermal and electric efficiency
Alternative fuel use Clinker substitution Carbon capture and storage 4 technology pages covering 38
technology papers prepared by ECRA Barriers to implementation, R&D needs and goals, Partner roles, Potential impacts
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Policy Recommendations Focus on 7 Areas ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Promote the adoption of current
state-of-the-art technologies Encourage and facilitate increased alternative fuel use Facilitate and encourage increased clinker substitution Facilitate the development of carbon capture and storage
Policy Recommendations Focus on 7 Areas ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Ensure predictable, objective and
stable CO2 constraints and energy frameworks on an international level Enhance research and development capabilities, skills, expertise and innovation Encourage international collaboration and public-private partnerships
Thank You! ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
[email protected] © OECD/IEA - 2009
Energy Technology Transitions for Industry:
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution Michael Taylor Energy Technology Policy Division IEA, Paris
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Energy Technology Transitions for Industry ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Industry is a key actor in
the fight against climate change Some progress to date, but more is needed Technology can help bring about a low carbon industrial revolution Global action is needed
Key Findings ENERGY
Global deployment of BAT could
TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
improve energy efficiency by 20 to 30% … but this is not enough – demand will double or triple by 2050 New technologies are needed for deep CO2 reductions CCS is a key option of the sector Biomass will play an important role De-carbonised power sector is critical Total additional investments needed for BLUE are estimated at USD 2 – 2.5 trillion
CO2 Emissions in Industry 14
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
12
TRANSITIONS
Baseline low 2050 emissions 11.2 Gt CO2
FOR INDUSTRY Emissions (Gt CO2)
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
10
8
6
BLUE low 2050 emissions 5.7 Gt CO2
4
Recycling and energy recovery (9%) End use fuel efficiency (40%) Fuel and feedstock switching (21%)
2
CCS (energy and process) (30%)
0 2005
© OECD/IEA - 2009
2010
2015
2020
Direct energy and process emissions only
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Materials Production ENERGY
Paper and paperboard
2 500
Crude steel
TECHNOLOGY
Chemical f eedstocks
Cement
TRANSITIONS
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Materials production (Mt)
FOR INDUSTRY
2 000
Aluminium
1 500
1 000
500
OECD Europe OECD North America
© OECD/IEA - 2009
OECD Pacif ic
China
India
Other developing Asia
Economies in transition
Af rica and Middle East
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
low 2050
low 2030
2006
0
Latin America
Final Energy Use in Industry ENERGY
300
TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS
250
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Energy consumption (EJ)
FOR INDUSTRY 200 Other renewables
Biomass and waste Heat
150
Electricity Natural gas Oil
Coal 100
50
0 2006
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Baseline low 2050
BLUE low 2050
Baseline high 2050
BLUE high 2050
CO2 Emissions in Industry 14
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
12
TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY
Emissions (Gt CO2)
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
10
Other
8
Pulp and paper Iron and steel
Chemicals 6
Cement
Aluminium
4
2
0 2006
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Baseline low 2050
BLUE low 2050
Direct energy and process emissions only
Baseline high 2050
BLUE high 2050
Key Options ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
BAT everywhere (energy
efficiency measures) CO2 Capture and Storage CCS Fuel switching Increased recycling New Technologies
Contribution to Emissions Reduction ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
2050 BLUE Low Scenario
2050 BLUE High Scenario
14.7 Gt including 8.8 Gt indirect emissions reduction
16.6 Gt including 9.2 Gt indirect emissions reduction
TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Carbon Capture and Storage ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
The Cement Industry
Cement and Russia in Perspective: Direct CO2 Emissions 2006
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Cement’s Contribution
(reduction below the Baseline in 2050) ENERGY
0
TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS
-1000
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Mt CO2 in 2050
FOR INDUSTRY
BLUE Low
BLUE High
Other
-2000
Aluminium
-3000
Pulp, paper and print
-4000 -5000
Chemicals and petrochemicals
Cement -6000 Iron and steel -7000 -8000
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Key Options in Cement ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Improve energy efficiency: shift to BAT ~3-3.2 GJ/t clinker Increase use of clinker
substitutes (fly ash, GBFS, etc) Increase use of alternative fuels Carbon Capture and Storage Longer term: New cement types?
Cement Production by Technology ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Trend towards higher share of the more efficient dry-process © OECD/IEA - 2009
Alternative Fuel Use ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Outside of Europe and North America use is still very low: significant potential remains! © OECD/IEA - 2009
Cement Sector: BAT Energy Saving Potential ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Cement Sector: BAT CO2 savings potential ENERGY 600
TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY
500
CO2 savings potential (Mt CO2/yr)
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
0.8
Fly ash and other clinker substitutes Blast furnace slag
0.7
Alternative fuel 0.6 Electricity savings
400
300
Fossil fuel savings
0.5
Specific savings potential (t CO2 / t cement)
0.4
0.3 0.3
200
0.3
0.3
0.3 0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2 0.1
100
0.1
0.1
0
0.0 World
© OECD/IEA - 2009
China
Russia Canada United States
Korea
Brazil
India
OECD Japan Europe
Other
Savings potential (t CO2/t cement)
TECHNOLOGY
Cement – Key Findings Emissions from the cement sector in BLUE falls ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
18% compared to today Efficiency essential to 2030 Alternative fuels and switching important Limited improvements from clinker substitutes CCS is key – demo in cement kilns needed by 2015 with deployment from 2020 50% of all kilns to be equipped with CCS by 2050 BLUE low scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2009
BLUE high scenario
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
The Transition to 2050: IEA Technology Roadmaps
IEA Technology Roadmaps ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Key technologies identified by
ETP2008 Technological development requires co-operation Value of roadmaps recognised by MEM, G8+3 meetings etc IEA asked to play a leading role Cement roadmap in collaboration with WBCSD- Cement Sustainability Initiative
IEA Roadmap Definition ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
“A technology roadmap is a dynamic set of technical, policy, legal, financial, market & organizational requirements identified by all stakeholders involved in its development. The effort shall lead to improved and enhanced sharing and collaboration of all related technologyspecific RDD&D information among participants. The goal is to accelerate the overall RDD&D process in order to deliver an earlier uptake of the specific energy technology into the marketplace”.
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Cement roadmap process ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS
Cement demand data (IEA)
38 technology papers (ECRA/CSI)
FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Cement Sector Roadmap
CCS transport and storage
CSI and IEA members review
Concrete
Financing Policy Public acceptance © OECD/IEA - 2009
Roadmap Messages ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Cement is a key material. Demand
© OECD/IEA - 2009
reduction / substitution is not an option. Options today (BAT, alternative fuels and clinker substitutes) are not sufficient New technology is needed – CCS and new cement types Step increase in RD&D needed, a very long term solution is required Deep emission cuts are costly (USD 50100/t CO2) and capital intensive Policy should address economic implications Cement will become twice as expensive – a challenge and an opportunity
Four Reduction Levers ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
Thermal and electric efficiency
Alternative fuel use Clinker substitution Carbon capture and storage 4 technology pages covering 38
technology papers prepared by ECRA Barriers to implementation, R&D needs and goals, Partner roles, Potential impacts
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Policy Recommendations Focus on 7 Areas ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Promote the adoption of current
state-of-the-art technologies Encourage and facilitate increased alternative fuel use Facilitate and encourage increased clinker substitution Facilitate the development of carbon capture and storage
Policy Recommendations Focus on 7 Areas ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Ensure predictable, objective and
stable CO2 constraints and energy frameworks on an international level Enhance research and development capabilities, skills, expertise and innovation Encourage international collaboration and public-private partnerships
Thank You! ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS FOR INDUSTRY Strategies for the Next Industrial Revolution
[email protected] © OECD/IEA - 2009
