Expert Advisor Market Reports January 2014
KCM Divided into Three Sections
2014 PROJECTIONS
The Year of… 2012 - Recovery
2013 - Stabilization 2014 - Growth!
The ECONOMY
Calculated Risk 12/2013
Coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: “The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.”
Calculated Risk 12/2013
2014 will be the year of the
repeat homebuyer - Trulia
Impact of Immigration Reform “Demand for housing units increases as new immigrants enter the economy and form households, accelerating the current housing recovery and fueling growth in this sector of the economy.”
$68B Projected annual increase in spending on residential construction Bipartisan Policy Center 12/2013
MILLENNIALS
HOUSEHOLDS in the U.S.* 2014-2017 *Urban Land Institute’s 2014
Emerging Trends in Real Estate
3.7% Projected Growth over the Next 3 Years
121M Current Households in the United States
4.48M Additional Households to be Formed
“Well, I think it’s a basic question of supply and demand. When you have that many more renters coming into the market looking for Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. housing, and the supply of housing isn’t responding as quickly as it might, that’s going to push rents up, even if incomes are low.”
Christopher Herbert Research Director at the Joint Center
"We are in the midst of the worst Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. rental affordability crisis that this country has known."
Shaun Donovan Secretary of Housing & Urban Development.
Homeowners Net Worth…
OVER 30X
greater than renters
Federal Reserve
An American Family’s
Net Worth $174,500
$5,100 Homeowner
Renter Federal Reserve
5,500,000
Existing Home Sales 5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
S&P Case Shiller 12/2013
Year-Over-Year % Change in House Sales NORTHEAST WEST
Up 6.6%
Down 10.1% MIDWEST Unchanged NAR’s Existing Homes Sales Report 12.2013
SOUTH Up 1%
Pending Home Sales
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 12/2013
Impact of Increasing
INTEREST RATES
ta·per ˈtāpər/ Verb – to diminish or reduce
$151.08
“I think it is very likely that QE3 will be completed by the end of 2014. There are 8 meetings during the year, and I expect the Fed to reduce the pace of asset purchases atis about billion per meeting. Affordability still good$10 compared to any time over the last 50 years. It appears they will only slow the taper if inflation declines sharply - or if the economy stalls (I think both are unlikely).”
Bill McBride Calculated Risk
2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Federal Reserve 12/2013
Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst
Projected Rate 1Q 2015
National Assoc of Realtors
5.4%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc
5.3%
Calculated Risk 7/2013
Percent of the country remaining affordable at different 30 year mortgage rates
70%
63% 55% 35%
4.4%
5%
6%
7% Freddie Mac
Rate deemed SIGNIFICANT threat*
44.3%
8% 13.6%
13.3%
13.6%
4.5 - 5%
5 - 5.5%
5.5 - 6%
*on the 30-Year fixed rate mortgage
6 - 6.5%
> 6.5% Pulsenomics
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
1,079
$
1,109
$
1,139
$
1,169
$
1,199
5.75 $
1,050
$
1,080
$
1,109
$
1,138
$
1,167
5.50 $
1,022
$
1,050
$
1,079
$
1,107
$
1,136
5.25 $
994
$
1,022
$
1,049
$
1,077
$
1,104
5.00 $
966
$
993
$
1,020
$
1,047
$
1,074
4.75 $
939
$
965
$
991
$
1,017
$
1,043
4.50 $
912
$
937
$
963
$
988
$
1,013
$ 180,000 -10%
$ 185,000 -7.5%
$ 190,000 -5%
$ 195,000
$ 200,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
2,158
$
2,218
$
2,278
$
2,338
$
2,398
5.75 $
2,100
$
2,160
$
2,218
$
2,276
$
2,334
5.50 $
2,044
$
2,100
$
2,158
$
2,214
$
2,272
5.25 $
1,988
$
2,044
$
2,098
$
2,154
$
2,208
5.00 $
1,932
$
1,986
$
2,040
$
2,094
$
2,148
4.75 $
1,878
$
1,930
$
1,982
$
2,034
$
2,086
4.50 $
1,824
$
1,874
$
1,926
$
1,976
$
2,026
$ 360,000 -10%
$ 370,000 -7.5%
$ 380,000 -5%
$ 390,000
$ 400,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
3,237
$
3,328
$
3,417
$
3,507
$
3,597
5.75 $
3,151
$
3,239
$
3,326
$
3,414
$
3,501
5.50 $
3,066
$
3,151
$
3,236
$
3,322
$
3,407
5.25 $
2,982
$
3,065
$
3,148
$
3,230
$
3,313
5.00 $
2,899
$
2,979
$
3,060
$
3,140
$
3,221
4.75 $
2,817
$
2,895
$
2,973
$
3,052
$
3,130
4.50 $
2,736
$
2,812
$
2,888
$
2,964
$
3,040
$ 540,000 -10%
$ 555,000 -7.5%
$ 570,000 -5%
$ 585,000
$ 600,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
4,317
$
4,437
$
4,557
$
4,676
$
4,796
5.75 $
4,201
$
4,318
$
4,435
$
4,552
$
4,669
5.50 $
4,088
$
4,202
$
4,315
$
4,429
$
4,542
5.25 $
3,976
$
4,086
$
4,197
$
4,307
$
4,418
5.00 $
3,865
$
3,972
$
4,080
$
4,187
$
4,295
4.75 $
3,756
$
3,860
$
3,965
$
4,069
$
4,173
4.50 $
3,648
$
3,749
$
3,851
$
3,952
$
4,053
$ 720,000 -10%
$ 740,000 -7.5%
$ 760,000 -5%
$ 780,000
$ 800,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
5,396
$
5,546
$
5,696
$
5,846
$
5,996
5.75 $
5,252
$
5,398
$
5,544
$
5,690
$
5,836
5.50 $
5,110
$
5,252
$
5,394
$
5,536
$
5,678
5.25 $
4,970
$
5,108
$
5,246
$
5,384
$
5,522
5.00 $
4,831
$
4,966
$
5,100
$
5,234
$
5,368
4.75 $
4,695
$
4,825
$
4,956
$
5,086
$
5,216
4.50 $
4,560
$
4,687
$
4,814
$
4,940
$
5,067
$ 900,000 -10%
$ 925,000 -7.5%
$ 950,000 -5%
$ 975,000
$ 1,000,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
Home Prices
12/2013
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
S&P Case Shiller 12/2013
Month-Over-Month Price Changes
12/2013
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5.3
5.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
4.8
4.5
4.3
4.0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
August
Sept
Oct
Nov
NAR 12/2013
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels 10% 5%
5% 1.8%
0.9%
Sept 1.8%
Oct 0.9%
0% -5%
-5%
-6.2%
-7.6%
-10% -14%
-15%
-13%
-16.8% -20.8%
-20% -24%
-25%
Jan Feb March April % -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14%
May -13%
June -7.6%
July -5%
Aug -6.2%
Nov 5.0% NAR 12/2013
RETURN ON INVESTMENT January 2000 – December 2013
65.9
51.5 32.5 6
Dow MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
S&P
NASDAQ
Real Estate
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 12/2013
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 12/2013
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35%
14%
NAR 12/2013
Nail Down the
TRUST FACTOR
Jayson DeMers in Forbes Content Marketing Will Be Bigger Than Ever “One of the main ways that companies are
establishing authority and gaining trust with consumers is by consistently creating valuable content through a variety of channels. This typically involves relevant industry information that provides insight to an audience. Doing so allows a company to steadily build rapport with its demographic and develop a loyal following.”
Jayson DeMers in Forbes Image-Centric Content Will Rule “As consumers are hit with an increasing number of advertisements, it’s becoming more important to make content easily and quickly digestible. If you look at the social media sites that are on the rise, three of the four have a common characteristic…
they place an emphasis
on images ” .
%
of businesses use some form of content marketing
%
of Chief Marketing Officers believe custom content is the future of marketing
60
78
Placester
3X Content Marketing
as many leads per dollar produced by content marketing (versus paid search)
78%
70%
of consumers prefer getting to know a company via articles rather than ads
of consumers believe that organizations providing custom content are interested in building good relationships with them
Marketing Tech Blog
Typical Sold Price* FSBO vs. Agent
$230K $184K
By FSBO
By AGENT
*The ‘typical’ price is actually the average price in the survey. However, studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
2,158
$
2,218
$
2,278
$
2,338
$
2,398
5.75 $
2,100
$
2,160
$
2,218
$
2,276
$
2,334
5.50 $
2,044
$
2,100
$
2,158
$
2,214
$
2,272
5.25 $
1,988
$
2,044
$
2,098
$
2,154
$
2,208
5.00 $
1,932
$
1,986
$
2,040
$
2,094
$
2,148
4.75 $
1,878
$
1,930
$
1,982
$
2,034
$
2,086
4.50 $
1,824
$
1,874
$
1,926
$
1,976
$
2,026
$ 360,000 -10%
$ 370,000 -7.5%
$ 380,000 -5%
$ 390,000
$ 400,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
5
Financial Reasons to Buy Reason
Quote from Harvard Report
Housing is the one leveraged investment available
“Homeownership allows households to amplify any appreciation on the value of their homes by a leverage factor.”
You're paying for housing whether you own or rent
“Homeowners pay debt service to pay down their own principal while households that rent pay down the principal of a landlord.”
Owning is usually a form of “forced savings”
“Having to make a housing payment one way or the other, owning a home can overcome people’s tendency to defer savings.”
There are substantial tax benefits to owning
“Homeowners are able to deduct mortgage interest and property taxes from income.”
Owning is a hedge against inflation
“Housing costs and rents have tended over most time periods to go up at or higher than the rate of inflation, making owning an attractive proposition.”
Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University12/2013
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
6, 7
November 2013 State Coincident Indexes
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/philly-fed-state-coincidentindexes.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculat ed+Risk%29
8
2014 will be the year of the repeat homebuyer
http://info.trulia.com/2014-housing-predictions
9
Impact of Immigration Reform
http://bipartisanpolicy.org/library/report/immigration-reform-implications-growth-budgets-and-housing
11
Households in the U.S. 2014-2017
http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Emerging-Trends-in-Real-Estate-Americas-2014.pdf
12
Christopher Herbert Quote
http://onpoint.wbur.org/2013/12/16/chris-herbert-explains-why-rents-are-headed-skyward
13
Shaun Donovan Quote
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101258649
14, 15
An American Family’s Net Worth
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
17, 19, 41, 42, 45, 46
Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory, Year-Over-Year Inventory, Months Inventory of Homes, Distressed Property
www.realtor.org/
18
Year Over Year % Change
http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2013/12/existing-home-sales-decline-in-novemberbut-strong-price-gains-continue
23
Bill McBride Quote
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/will-fed-taper-in-december-inflationis.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Calculated Risk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
24
2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013outlook-2013-6-27.pdf http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf
25
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
26
Dramatic Mortgage Rate Increases
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/07/house-prices-and-mortgagerates.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated +Risk%29
27
Percent of the Country Affordability
http://freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/diverging-homebuyer-affordability-otcqb-fmcc-1077388
35
CNN Money & LA Times
http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/31/news/economy/home-prices-jump/index.html?hpt=hp_t3 http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-case-shiller-home-prices20131231,0,1684377.story#axzz2pkbDZg00
36
Today’s Prices Compared to 2005-07 Peak
http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic_hpi_october_2013.pdf
37
Year-Over-Year Change in Prices
http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf
38
Month-Over-Month Price Changes
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-indexreport.aspx?WT.mc_id=crlg_131203_UE1r7&elq=1042de5a31114a1baa015fbd2be2235f
39
State Median Price Expectation
http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index
43
Return on Investment
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
44
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomepricerelease-0730.pdf?force_download=true
49, 50
Jayson DeMers in Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysondemers/2013/09/17/the-top-7-online-marketing-trends-that-willdominate-2014/
51
Placester Data
https://placester.com/real-estate-marketing-academy/infographic-real-estate-professionals-guideonline-marketing-in-2014/2014-online-marketing-guide-for-real-estate-infographic-full-4/
52
Marketing Tech Blog
http://www.marketingtechblog.com/infographic-content-marketing-real-estate/
53
FSBO vs. Agent
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/12/04/2013hbs-twitter-chat-recap/#more-14199
55
5 Financial Reasons to Buy
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/dream-lives-future-homeownership-america
2014 PROJECTIONS
The Year of… 2012 - Recovery
2013 - Stabilization 2014 - Growth!
The ECONOMY
Calculated Risk 12/2013
Coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: “The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.”
Calculated Risk 12/2013
2014 will be the year of the
repeat homebuyer - Trulia
Impact of Immigration Reform “Demand for housing units increases as new immigrants enter the economy and form households, accelerating the current housing recovery and fueling growth in this sector of the economy.”
$68B Projected annual increase in spending on residential construction Bipartisan Policy Center 12/2013
MILLENNIALS
HOUSEHOLDS in the U.S.* 2014-2017 *Urban Land Institute’s 2014
Emerging Trends in Real Estate
3.7% Projected Growth over the Next 3 Years
121M Current Households in the United States
4.48M Additional Households to be Formed
“Well, I think it’s a basic question of supply and demand. When you have that many more renters coming into the market looking for Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. housing, and the supply of housing isn’t responding as quickly as it might, that’s going to push rents up, even if incomes are low.”
Christopher Herbert Research Director at the Joint Center
"We are in the midst of the worst Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. rental affordability crisis that this country has known."
Shaun Donovan Secretary of Housing & Urban Development.
Homeowners Net Worth…
OVER 30X
greater than renters
Federal Reserve
An American Family’s
Net Worth $174,500
$5,100 Homeowner
Renter Federal Reserve
5,500,000
Existing Home Sales 5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
S&P Case Shiller 12/2013
Year-Over-Year % Change in House Sales NORTHEAST WEST
Up 6.6%
Down 10.1% MIDWEST Unchanged NAR’s Existing Homes Sales Report 12.2013
SOUTH Up 1%
Pending Home Sales
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 12/2013
Impact of Increasing
INTEREST RATES
ta·per ˈtāpər/ Verb – to diminish or reduce
$151.08
“I think it is very likely that QE3 will be completed by the end of 2014. There are 8 meetings during the year, and I expect the Fed to reduce the pace of asset purchases atis about billion per meeting. Affordability still good$10 compared to any time over the last 50 years. It appears they will only slow the taper if inflation declines sharply - or if the economy stalls (I think both are unlikely).”
Bill McBride Calculated Risk
2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Federal Reserve 12/2013
Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst
Projected Rate 1Q 2015
National Assoc of Realtors
5.4%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc
5.3%
Calculated Risk 7/2013
Percent of the country remaining affordable at different 30 year mortgage rates
70%
63% 55% 35%
4.4%
5%
6%
7% Freddie Mac
Rate deemed SIGNIFICANT threat*
44.3%
8% 13.6%
13.3%
13.6%
4.5 - 5%
5 - 5.5%
5.5 - 6%
*on the 30-Year fixed rate mortgage
6 - 6.5%
> 6.5% Pulsenomics
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
1,079
$
1,109
$
1,139
$
1,169
$
1,199
5.75 $
1,050
$
1,080
$
1,109
$
1,138
$
1,167
5.50 $
1,022
$
1,050
$
1,079
$
1,107
$
1,136
5.25 $
994
$
1,022
$
1,049
$
1,077
$
1,104
5.00 $
966
$
993
$
1,020
$
1,047
$
1,074
4.75 $
939
$
965
$
991
$
1,017
$
1,043
4.50 $
912
$
937
$
963
$
988
$
1,013
$ 180,000 -10%
$ 185,000 -7.5%
$ 190,000 -5%
$ 195,000
$ 200,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
2,158
$
2,218
$
2,278
$
2,338
$
2,398
5.75 $
2,100
$
2,160
$
2,218
$
2,276
$
2,334
5.50 $
2,044
$
2,100
$
2,158
$
2,214
$
2,272
5.25 $
1,988
$
2,044
$
2,098
$
2,154
$
2,208
5.00 $
1,932
$
1,986
$
2,040
$
2,094
$
2,148
4.75 $
1,878
$
1,930
$
1,982
$
2,034
$
2,086
4.50 $
1,824
$
1,874
$
1,926
$
1,976
$
2,026
$ 360,000 -10%
$ 370,000 -7.5%
$ 380,000 -5%
$ 390,000
$ 400,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
3,237
$
3,328
$
3,417
$
3,507
$
3,597
5.75 $
3,151
$
3,239
$
3,326
$
3,414
$
3,501
5.50 $
3,066
$
3,151
$
3,236
$
3,322
$
3,407
5.25 $
2,982
$
3,065
$
3,148
$
3,230
$
3,313
5.00 $
2,899
$
2,979
$
3,060
$
3,140
$
3,221
4.75 $
2,817
$
2,895
$
2,973
$
3,052
$
3,130
4.50 $
2,736
$
2,812
$
2,888
$
2,964
$
3,040
$ 540,000 -10%
$ 555,000 -7.5%
$ 570,000 -5%
$ 585,000
$ 600,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
4,317
$
4,437
$
4,557
$
4,676
$
4,796
5.75 $
4,201
$
4,318
$
4,435
$
4,552
$
4,669
5.50 $
4,088
$
4,202
$
4,315
$
4,429
$
4,542
5.25 $
3,976
$
4,086
$
4,197
$
4,307
$
4,418
5.00 $
3,865
$
3,972
$
4,080
$
4,187
$
4,295
4.75 $
3,756
$
3,860
$
3,965
$
4,069
$
4,173
4.50 $
3,648
$
3,749
$
3,851
$
3,952
$
4,053
$ 720,000 -10%
$ 740,000 -7.5%
$ 760,000 -5%
$ 780,000
$ 800,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
5,396
$
5,546
$
5,696
$
5,846
$
5,996
5.75 $
5,252
$
5,398
$
5,544
$
5,690
$
5,836
5.50 $
5,110
$
5,252
$
5,394
$
5,536
$
5,678
5.25 $
4,970
$
5,108
$
5,246
$
5,384
$
5,522
5.00 $
4,831
$
4,966
$
5,100
$
5,234
$
5,368
4.75 $
4,695
$
4,825
$
4,956
$
5,086
$
5,216
4.50 $
4,560
$
4,687
$
4,814
$
4,940
$
5,067
$ 900,000 -10%
$ 925,000 -7.5%
$ 950,000 -5%
$ 975,000
$ 1,000,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
Home Prices
12/2013
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
S&P Case Shiller 12/2013
Month-Over-Month Price Changes
12/2013
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5.3
5.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
4.8
4.5
4.3
4.0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
August
Sept
Oct
Nov
NAR 12/2013
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels 10% 5%
5% 1.8%
0.9%
Sept 1.8%
Oct 0.9%
0% -5%
-5%
-6.2%
-7.6%
-10% -14%
-15%
-13%
-16.8% -20.8%
-20% -24%
-25%
Jan Feb March April % -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14%
May -13%
June -7.6%
July -5%
Aug -6.2%
Nov 5.0% NAR 12/2013
RETURN ON INVESTMENT January 2000 – December 2013
65.9
51.5 32.5 6
Dow MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
S&P
NASDAQ
Real Estate
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 12/2013
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 12/2013
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35%
14%
NAR 12/2013
Nail Down the
TRUST FACTOR
Jayson DeMers in Forbes Content Marketing Will Be Bigger Than Ever “One of the main ways that companies are
establishing authority and gaining trust with consumers is by consistently creating valuable content through a variety of channels. This typically involves relevant industry information that provides insight to an audience. Doing so allows a company to steadily build rapport with its demographic and develop a loyal following.”
Jayson DeMers in Forbes Image-Centric Content Will Rule “As consumers are hit with an increasing number of advertisements, it’s becoming more important to make content easily and quickly digestible. If you look at the social media sites that are on the rise, three of the four have a common characteristic…
they place an emphasis
on images ” .
%
of businesses use some form of content marketing
%
of Chief Marketing Officers believe custom content is the future of marketing
60
78
Placester
3X Content Marketing
as many leads per dollar produced by content marketing (versus paid search)
78%
70%
of consumers prefer getting to know a company via articles rather than ads
of consumers believe that organizations providing custom content are interested in building good relationships with them
Marketing Tech Blog
Typical Sold Price* FSBO vs. Agent
$230K $184K
By FSBO
By AGENT
*The ‘typical’ price is actually the average price in the survey. However, studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.
RATE
Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $
2,158
$
2,218
$
2,278
$
2,338
$
2,398
5.75 $
2,100
$
2,160
$
2,218
$
2,276
$
2,334
5.50 $
2,044
$
2,100
$
2,158
$
2,214
$
2,272
5.25 $
1,988
$
2,044
$
2,098
$
2,154
$
2,208
5.00 $
1,932
$
1,986
$
2,040
$
2,094
$
2,148
4.75 $
1,878
$
1,930
$
1,982
$
2,034
$
2,086
4.50 $
1,824
$
1,874
$
1,926
$
1,976
$
2,026
$ 360,000 -10%
$ 370,000 -7.5%
$ 380,000 -5%
$ 390,000
$ 400,000
-2.5%
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
5
Financial Reasons to Buy Reason
Quote from Harvard Report
Housing is the one leveraged investment available
“Homeownership allows households to amplify any appreciation on the value of their homes by a leverage factor.”
You're paying for housing whether you own or rent
“Homeowners pay debt service to pay down their own principal while households that rent pay down the principal of a landlord.”
Owning is usually a form of “forced savings”
“Having to make a housing payment one way or the other, owning a home can overcome people’s tendency to defer savings.”
There are substantial tax benefits to owning
“Homeowners are able to deduct mortgage interest and property taxes from income.”
Owning is a hedge against inflation
“Housing costs and rents have tended over most time periods to go up at or higher than the rate of inflation, making owning an attractive proposition.”
Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University12/2013
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
6, 7
November 2013 State Coincident Indexes
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/philly-fed-state-coincidentindexes.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculat ed+Risk%29
8
2014 will be the year of the repeat homebuyer
http://info.trulia.com/2014-housing-predictions
9
Impact of Immigration Reform
http://bipartisanpolicy.org/library/report/immigration-reform-implications-growth-budgets-and-housing
11
Households in the U.S. 2014-2017
http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Emerging-Trends-in-Real-Estate-Americas-2014.pdf
12
Christopher Herbert Quote
http://onpoint.wbur.org/2013/12/16/chris-herbert-explains-why-rents-are-headed-skyward
13
Shaun Donovan Quote
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101258649
14, 15
An American Family’s Net Worth
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
17, 19, 41, 42, 45, 46
Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory, Year-Over-Year Inventory, Months Inventory of Homes, Distressed Property
www.realtor.org/
18
Year Over Year % Change
http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2013/12/existing-home-sales-decline-in-novemberbut-strong-price-gains-continue
23
Bill McBride Quote
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/will-fed-taper-in-december-inflationis.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Calculated Risk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
24
2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013outlook-2013-6-27.pdf http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf
25
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
26
Dramatic Mortgage Rate Increases
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/07/house-prices-and-mortgagerates.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated +Risk%29
27
Percent of the Country Affordability
http://freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/diverging-homebuyer-affordability-otcqb-fmcc-1077388
35
CNN Money & LA Times
http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/31/news/economy/home-prices-jump/index.html?hpt=hp_t3 http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-case-shiller-home-prices20131231,0,1684377.story#axzz2pkbDZg00
36
Today’s Prices Compared to 2005-07 Peak
http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic_hpi_october_2013.pdf
37
Year-Over-Year Change in Prices
http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf
38
Month-Over-Month Price Changes
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-indexreport.aspx?WT.mc_id=crlg_131203_UE1r7&elq=1042de5a31114a1baa015fbd2be2235f
39
State Median Price Expectation
http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index
43
Return on Investment
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
44
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomepricerelease-0730.pdf?force_download=true
49, 50
Jayson DeMers in Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysondemers/2013/09/17/the-top-7-online-marketing-trends-that-willdominate-2014/
51
Placester Data
https://placester.com/real-estate-marketing-academy/infographic-real-estate-professionals-guideonline-marketing-in-2014/2014-online-marketing-guide-for-real-estate-infographic-full-4/
52
Marketing Tech Blog
http://www.marketingtechblog.com/infographic-content-marketing-real-estate/
53
FSBO vs. Agent
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/12/04/2013hbs-twitter-chat-recap/#more-14199
55
5 Financial Reasons to Buy
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/dream-lives-future-homeownership-america
